Can we call this "Consumer Reports Syndrome"....says something bad about apple/ apple products just to grab headlines? 
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IDC Projects Windows Phone to Top iPhone in Market Share by 2015
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You had better get used to it.
Apple's main business is now iOS devices and a lot of the people who buy iOS devices are using Windows. If Apple's success continues at it's present rate it will bring a lot more Windows users to the MacRumors forums.
Can we call this "Consumer Reports Syndrome"....says something bad about apple/ apple products just to grab headlines?
Yes, its so horrible that they predicted this and MacRumors posted something not pro-Apple!
There are five pertinent market share numbers:
1. Raw units sold. This appears to be what IDC is going on about.
2. Devices in use. This tracks fairly well with (1) but not precisely. It's a more important number than (1). The number of consumers for applications on the device, although (5) below is a more important number for the app devs.
3. Revenue. Apple excels here for obvious reasons compared to free Nokias. Reflects customer demand for the product.
4. Profit. Directly speaks to the long-term viability of the platform. Will the OS maker continue devoting resources to this? In non-Apple cases, will the device manufacturer also be reaping sufficient profit to continue devoting resources to this platform?
5. App Market Profit. This is somewhat derived from (2) and somewhat related to (3). How willing are the users of this platform to pay for apps? It speaks directly to the long-term viability of the platform as an application delivery platform.
The funny thing is, the one marker being used here - #1 above - is the only one which favors cheap throw-away units, at which Nokia and hence now MS Phone 7 excel.
But, as I note above, it's also the least meaningful number. It's the easiest to obtain and track, but the least useful. Instead, the profits heading to the manufacturers of the device/OS determine if that platform will see continued development, and the profits heading to third-party app developers determine if that platform will continue getting value-add third-party apps.
In other words, yes you might look at it that way. I'm not convinced that Nokia/MS will hold out that long, nor certainly that third-party developers will pay enough attention to MS Phone 7 to keep it viable in terms of consumers. Which in turn end up tempering the expected platform growth numbers (which, so far as I can see, are predicated on WP7 replacing the OS on all Nokia's burner phones).
1. Raw units sold. This appears to be what IDC is going on about.
2. Devices in use. This tracks fairly well with (1) but not precisely. It's a more important number than (1). The number of consumers for applications on the device, although (5) below is a more important number for the app devs.
3. Revenue. Apple excels here for obvious reasons compared to free Nokias. Reflects customer demand for the product.
4. Profit. Directly speaks to the long-term viability of the platform. Will the OS maker continue devoting resources to this? In non-Apple cases, will the device manufacturer also be reaping sufficient profit to continue devoting resources to this platform?
5. App Market Profit. This is somewhat derived from (2) and somewhat related to (3). How willing are the users of this platform to pay for apps? It speaks directly to the long-term viability of the platform as an application delivery platform.
The funny thing is, the one marker being used here - #1 above - is the only one which favors cheap throw-away units, at which Nokia and hence now MS Phone 7 excel.
But, as I note above, it's also the least meaningful number. It's the easiest to obtain and track, but the least useful. Instead, the profits heading to the manufacturers of the device/OS determine if that platform will see continued development, and the profits heading to third-party app developers determine if that platform will continue getting value-add third-party apps.
In other words, yes you might look at it that way. I'm not convinced that Nokia/MS will hold out that long, nor certainly that third-party developers will pay enough attention to MS Phone 7 to keep it viable in terms of consumers. Which in turn end up tempering the expected platform growth numbers (which, so far as I can see, are predicated on WP7 replacing the OS on all Nokia's burner phones).
Surely WP7's fastest app market growth means something in terms of developer interest.
Mhmmm, you type with your mouse? Or how is that voice recognition coming along?
In any case, I think the IDC 'prediction' is more of a bullish guess. Unless Nokia swap out Symbian on their entire line of phones, in which case Windows Phone will become the de facto market share leader on a WW basis.
I've not used WP7 - though I've heard (from iPhone users even) that it's pretty good. Of course with MS marketing and Nokia SW skills it's bound to fail (cough, Ovi-suite/store fail, cough)...
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It looks like they are running on the idea that Macintosh's seem to sell around the same volume as a percentage of the market year after year. The problem with that logic is that unless Apple does something really stupid (and they do have a prolonged and rich history of doing that) the iOS operating system and the devices that use it could actually increase market share and be the number one seller.
Especially after you look at the shots to the head that Microsoft has inflicted on itself in the past dozen years. The Zune being the most widely cheered by 'the media' and that made the biggest flop, except in the media that cheered it on.
I heard of the Zune death in a small blog post. I thought: 'Wow! Microsoft kills the Zune AND how many other devices in the past x-number of years? Wow! Can they do anything right? Perhaps they should hire Austin Powers so that he can help them find their missing mojo.'
If 'Windows Phone' is anything like it was when I had a 'Windows Mobile Phone', The 'Windows Phone' will ultimately fail. So much that Redmond births dies it seems...
And the other competition, Android, will eventually have to change and they too will lose market share. Heck, a friend of mine now doesn't keep his contacts on his Android phone because they are deleted ("lost") so much that he keeps them on his iPod Touch! I didn't even ask anything more... He has an 'Incredible' which seems to rock at a lot of stuff, including nuking his contact list and calendar.
Especially after you look at the shots to the head that Microsoft has inflicted on itself in the past dozen years. The Zune being the most widely cheered by 'the media' and that made the biggest flop, except in the media that cheered it on.
I heard of the Zune death in a small blog post. I thought: 'Wow! Microsoft kills the Zune AND how many other devices in the past x-number of years? Wow! Can they do anything right? Perhaps they should hire Austin Powers so that he can help them find their missing mojo.'
If 'Windows Phone' is anything like it was when I had a 'Windows Mobile Phone', The 'Windows Phone' will ultimately fail. So much that Redmond births dies it seems...
And the other competition, Android, will eventually have to change and they too will lose market share. Heck, a friend of mine now doesn't keep his contacts on his Android phone because they are deleted ("lost") so much that he keeps them on his iPod Touch! I didn't even ask anything more... He has an 'Incredible' which seems to rock at a lot of stuff, including nuking his contact list and calendar.
And when you try it out yourself you realize its nothing like Windows Mobile.
Most of you bash anything non Apple and have never even tried anything non Apple that you are bashing. It looks ridiculous. Ive OWNED and USED CONSISTENTLY an Android and an iPhone and Im seriously considering WP7 if that means anything.
Apparently it's completely different - even Steve Balmer disowned Windows Mobile before WP7 had been released yet.
I had Windows Mobile 2003 SE. Whoever signed off on that one should be shot. It had the most ridicolous set of limitations (e.g. a browser sans tabs, no ability to save jpgs, and a really convoluted way to close applications). But since Windows 7, MS almost seems to "get it" when it comes to UI.
A healthy 3 way competition consisting of iOS, Android, WP7, mirroring the desktop OS X, Linux, Windows 7, would seem like a good idea to me...
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It's ridiculous to think anyone has any idea what the mobile phone industry will look like in 4 years. Any prediction rests on a dozen assumptions, any number of which could be completely off base.
It's ridiculous to think anyone has any idea what the mobile phone industry will look like in 4 years. Any prediction rests on a dozen assumptions, any number of which could be completely off base.
I haven't seen one yet but I'm quite surprised at the positive buzz and as someone in the market for a new phone in the near future, I'll certainly take notice. I've been using Android since the G1 and have a Nexus One now. Two years of Android is EASILY enough to make me want to find another platformand that includes Windows.
Of course... AT&T buying T-Mobile is putting a huge cramp in my future phone purchasing decisions.
why in the world windows phone 7 would reach 20%? Seriously 20% from scratch in three years? I doubt about it. I think Verizon is a big deal for Apple and for the end of 2011 iOS will re-surpass Android in US.
Oh, btw..when Honeycomb and flash come to android tablets? SOON. They're coming!
https://twitter.com/#!/rogerdodgertm/status/52831902113079296
LOL
Oh, btw..when Honeycomb and flash come to android tablets? SOON. They're coming!
https://twitter.com/#!/rogerdodgertm/status/52831902113079296
LOL
How did Microsoft end up with 90% of the pc market? Apple (Steve) shot himself in both feet and the head on that one.
Dislike for anything iOS? Don't want to be tethered to iTunes? A more open OS? Dislike for Apple policies?
Don't like Android OS? Dislike for fragmentation? Don't feel that Android OS has a sustainable future? Dislike for the forced Google integration? Dislike for the lack of updates?
Or perhaps is a desire to streamline your computing by taking advantage of the Windows integration? Or a general appreciation for the "tile" approach? The fact that appointments show up on the lock screen? Knowing that a developer friendly company backs the phone with arguably the best development tools in the world.
But really, I think people just want to get a Windows 7 Phone to piss off people like cybrscot.
why in the world windows phone 7 would reach 20%? Seriously 20% from scratch in three years? I doubt about it. I think Verizon is a big deal for Apple and for the end of 2011 iOS will re-surpass Android in US.
Oh, btw..when Honeycomb and flash come to android tablets? SOON. They're coming!
https://twitter.com/#!/rogerdodgertm/status/52831902113079296
LOL
iPhone on Verizon means nothing in the global arena. It's a rounding error.
Yes this is true. Microsoft & Nokia as strategic partners are not to be taken lightly. Apple has had a good headstart. For example, just the Apple brand name alone gave the first iPhone instant credibility. It's massive lead on sales and installed base is why it will take a few years to catch up. And catch up they will. Those two companies have a lot of experience. Even though they have a lot to do, it's nothing they can't handle.
Also there's a lot of good news around Android since they freely admit they have work to do and it's clearly defined. Once you know what needs to be changed the fix is easy. Look at the huge projected market for Android !
It's going to be an interesting few years.
I may have read the same blog post, it was a list of things MS has gotten rid of. The problem with blogs like that, is that it's easy to miss what MS hasn't canned. There's WP7, the Kin studio is rumored to make a comeback for WP7/WP8, Surface, Aspects of Currier are rumored to be appearing in Windows 8. There's the Xbox which became the Xbox 360, Zune software is prominent in WP7, and lets not forget Windows, Windows Server, and Office...
Meanwhile Apple's discontinued their xserve line, consolidated OS X server into OS X, and basically killed off the MacBook, iPod Classic and iPod Nano by making them suck, and removed countless features from iLife and OS X over the years.
The only incredible thing here is that he hasn't set up contact and calendar sync with Google Mail, which persists all of this important information in the cloud as a backup, and also makes it available to other applications that can sync with Google's facilities.
I have an Android phone, I've had it for 16 months, and it has never once lost any data - although it has a tendency to crash overnight sometimes and get poor signal...
Your friend must be pressing the button to delete all contacts. Seriously does he not know how to use a smartphone. Everyone should know on smart phones first and foremost you have your contacts synced with some sort of service. I don't know anyone who feels their phone is invulnerable to theft or destruction. Always have your phone backed up. Iphone, Android, Windows Phone 7, Blackberry OS all can and will break or be stolen and if you have one that is not please tell us all about this Invincible phone you have.
Look at the big picture.
I think some people really needs to look at the big picture.
Nokia has by far the largest market share of cell phones world wide.
They may be small potatoes in North America but if you consider the world, they are gigantic and that isn't going to change any time soon.
Although significant, their smart-phone market share is still relatively small compared to their total market share.
In other words, Nokia is gigantic.
If Nokia drops Symbian and goes with MS, no matter how bad WP7 may do with other manufacturers, Nokia alone should be more than enough to not be taken lightly.
Even if they fail miserably in North America, if they are very successful in the rest of the world, that alone should be enough to pull them ahead of apple. Heck they have been doing just that up until recently.
And if they come out with a low end cell phone that has WP7? That they can simply sell dirt cheap? Even with a huge bastardized feature list? Sorry, Apple will be taken over by Nokia in the smart-phone market no problem (assuming it has 'enough' smarts to be considered a smart-phone').
Apple is a runaway hit in North America but in the rest of the world, just like the rest of their product line, other than pockets here and there, they just aren't that dominant.
Looking purely at world wide market share, the thought that Nokia + WP7 may be larger than Apple in smart phones by 2015 is very possible. Anyone who thinks differently, really needs to open their eyes to the rest of the world.
Of course, that isn't to say that Nokia and MS can screw things up since it's just as likely for Nokia to fail and disappear from the smart phone market.
Mind you, this has absolutely nothing to do with which 'phone' is better, ease of use, etc. Purely talking numbers here.
I think some people really needs to look at the big picture.
Nokia has by far the largest market share of cell phones world wide.
They may be small potatoes in North America but if you consider the world, they are gigantic and that isn't going to change any time soon.
Although significant, their smart-phone market share is still relatively small compared to their total market share.
In other words, Nokia is gigantic.
If Nokia drops Symbian and goes with MS, no matter how bad WP7 may do with other manufacturers, Nokia alone should be more than enough to not be taken lightly.
Even if they fail miserably in North America, if they are very successful in the rest of the world, that alone should be enough to pull them ahead of apple. Heck they have been doing just that up until recently.
And if they come out with a low end cell phone that has WP7? That they can simply sell dirt cheap? Even with a huge bastardized feature list? Sorry, Apple will be taken over by Nokia in the smart-phone market no problem (assuming it has 'enough' smarts to be considered a smart-phone').
Apple is a runaway hit in North America but in the rest of the world, just like the rest of their product line, other than pockets here and there, they just aren't that dominant.
Looking purely at world wide market share, the thought that Nokia + WP7 may be larger than Apple in smart phones by 2015 is very possible. Anyone who thinks differently, really needs to open their eyes to the rest of the world.
Of course, that isn't to say that Nokia and MS can screw things up since it's just as likely for Nokia to fail and disappear from the smart phone market.
Mind you, this has absolutely nothing to do with which 'phone' is better, ease of use, etc. Purely talking numbers here.