IDC Projects Windows Phone to Top iPhone in Market Share by 2015

[gnasher729]

Why would Apple lose market share, when they can't make those things fast enough? I'll come back to this study in 2015 to laugh at it.

Because the goalpost is changing.

There are cheap phones, there are medium priced phones, there are expensive phones. iPhones are all in the category "expensive phones". And Apple cares about their share in "expensive phones". They don't care about their share in smartphones.

Smartphones used to be expensive phones. Now more and more cheaper phones are smartphones. So Apple will lose marketshare in the "smartphones" category because in 2015 that category will include an awful lot of cheap phones, bought by people who are not at all interested in a smartphone, but only in a phone that is cheap, lets them make phone calls, and if it looks nice that doesn't hurt. Apple's marketshare in "expensive phones" will likely go up.

It's like in 2009, 2010 Apple's marketshare in laptops increased less than it could have because all the netbooks that are really just toys but were counted as laptops, artificially increasing the number in the category "laptop" by adding products that Apple didn't even try to compete with. Now the iPad apparently stopped the growth in netbook market completely, so growth in laptops is much less than it should be, so Apple's market share there is growing beyond the growth in laptop sales.

 

[Gatesbasher]

It's true—OS X doesn't have "cut" and "paste".

Also, did you know that the word "gullible" isn't in the dictionary?

 

[camelsnot]

I agree. In emerging nations where Apple doesn't care about, companies like Nokia rule. As long as licensing from Microsoft stays low and Nokia can put out quality cheap phones (yes it's possible), it'll come to fruition by 2015.

You also have to remember how the Xbox went. No one imagined it would take off. They downplayed Microsoft getting into the gaming biz and praised Nintendo and Sony. Now look. The princess Nintendo is now some boozed up aunt that no one wants to let in their house.

Also, with android OS gaining a lot of momentum and hardware to match, people ARE moving away from the iOS walled garden. They can find a phone that matches their lifestyle and budget.

Until Apple loses that "we're better than everyone else, so we'll charge what we want and control what you do with our stuff" mentality, they'll eventually go the way of Microsoft, IBM, Oracle and the others who thought too highly of themselves. Unfortunately, Steve Jobs has to die to make that happen. I'm saying that from a business standpoint. Him, his ego and the way rules with an iron fist ensures Apple's current practices are in tact. Again, Apple's tactics of controlling everything, suing everyone and charging customers and business partners for everything is working right now. In the future, not so much. I'd say by 2015, after Jobs has been gone for some years, they'll come to the realization things need to change in the company.

Hey maybe by 2015 they'll figure out real multitasking on iOS and release a new FCS! Of course, by then no one will want FCS as they'll have already moved on to Avid, Autodesk and Adobe (the other 3 big "A"'s)

Because the goalpost is changing.

There are cheap phones, there are medium priced phones, there are expensive phones. iPhones are all in the category "expensive phones". And Apple cares about their share in "expensive phones". They don't care about their share in smartphones.

Smartphones used to be expensive phones. Now more and more cheaper phones are smartphones. So Apple will lose marketshare in the "smartphones" category because in 2015 that category will include an awful lot of cheap phones, bought by people who are not at all interested in a smartphone, but only in a phone that is cheap, lets them make phone calls, and if it looks nice that doesn't hurt. Apple's marketshare in "expensive phones" will likely go up.

It's like in 2009, 2010 Apple's marketshare in laptops increased less than it could have because all the netbooks that are really just toys but were counted as laptops, artificially increasing the number in the category "laptop" by adding products that Apple didn't even try to compete with. Now the iPad apparently stopped the growth in netbook market completely, so growth in laptops is much less than it should be, so Apple's market share there is growing beyond the growth in laptop sales.

 

[Stella]

With a 1" screen?

Give me a break

The so called smart phones prior to the iphone were called smart phones. But the name was applied prematurely.

Any phone with a stylus can suffer from a lost stylus. That's not smart.

I don't know why I'm replying to this post... but still, I'll bite...

My first smartphone certainly didn't have a 1" screen, far larger and was very usable! The definition of a smartphone was a phone that could run native applications, PIM functionality and communicate and sync data with external devices ( i.e., your PC ). Same applies today. Screen size, touch screen - irrelevant.

Even the world's first smartphone didn't have a one inch screen! IBM Simon
( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_Simon )
( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smartphone )
So, the label of smartphone phone wasn't applied too earlier. Hey, you probably think the iPod was the first MP3 player? ;-)

The world doesn't revolve around Apple!

 

[McGiord]

The first Palm OS device that had the capability to make phone calls was the Handspring Treo, and you had to buy a springboard accessory to make it work like a phone. Palm ruled the world for a few years. I wonder how the predictions were at that time?
Palm bought handspring sometime ago.

Weren't the guys that created Palm in the team that did some work for Apple's Newton?

Wasn't the Newton one of the first portable devices with handwritten recognition, email, web surfing and faxing capability?
Where is the Newton nowadays? Steve killed it? Is the iPhone based on some of the key hits and mistakes from the Newton lessons learned?

Why do you guys keep on discussing about cut and paste on this thread?

None of us is right about predicting the future.
Who would have tought that the stock price of Apple and Googlr will be so high?

I really don't care if Apple is not the leader of the market share. It might be better for us core Apple enthusiasts, so they will keep on innovating, and creating great products that will enhance our lives.

Good old Apple way: great hardware with great software, that is the difference.
If websites can deliver what Apple cannot, and they can be ran without a connection, that will be great.

You "customizers", can't you do that by jailbreaking?
The key of Apple Hardwre is that it is capable of running Android and some other OS. It us just a matter of Jailbreaking.
Once again, if the time comes, there might be something like boot camp for iOS.

Aren't you receiving your kick doing some programming?
Can you create the apps required for you to satisfy your missing features?
I mean in any OS?

 

[Chupa Chupa]

Take these long term forecasts w/ a grain of salt.

I don't have an IDC report from 2006 but I'd bet they predicted BlackBerry would have a much higher marketshare in 2011 than it actually now has. I'm sure there projections are as good as anyone elses but tech moves too fast (and co. like Apple are too secretive) for anyone to accurately hit long range predictions on target.

What these projections do show is that competition is tight, which is good for every smart phone aficionado, regardless of preferred OS.

 

[Stella]

I really don't care if Apple is not the leader of the market share. It might be better or us core Apple enthusiasts, so they will keep on innovating, and creating great products that will enhance our lives.

For quite a few people on these forums - the suggestion that Apple isn't #1 or won't be number #1 in the future - for some reason - is offensive / insult statement. Yes, in reality, it doesn't matter if Apple is #1 or #3.. its the margins and sales. Apple don't need to be #1 or #2, or even #3.

 

[Popeye206]

IMHO, I think IDC is wrong. They assume the clout of Nokia will carry through many Windows 7 smart phones. Not sure this will be the case with so many tempting alternatives. Nokia, is essentially starting from scratch and behind the 8-ball with tons of competition.

It will be interesting to see what the shares look like in 2015. But you know... it really does not matter and I'm sure iOS is going to remain in the top 2 or 3 which will be great for Apple.

The thing that most people keep forgetting is the phone business is renewable. People tend to buy a new phone every 2-3 years. So Apple today, Android tomorrow and Apple again. Or whatever the case is. The point being, most consumers buy what they like at the time and what they are sold. So Apple will gain, lose some, gain some, as time goes on. It's how the business works.

Apple is at least in the most unique position as the iPhone is seen as the standard by many. And Apple has the most mature eco-system and best brand recognition. Most everyone knows what an iPhone is. Even though Android is doing well with all their vendors, each phone is always "one of many" and the line of advantages will be blurred with consumers. So Moto, Samsung, HTC and others need to figure out a way to differentiate themselves or they will just be another Android device. And yes, the techies like all the specs, but the consumer... most could care less. What a consumer likes is things like how the phone feels in your hands. The ease of the OS experience and the overall functionality of the device. This is where Apple will continue to shine and where it will be hit and miss with the mass of other phones.

We will see... but I think IDC is making some pretty wild assumptions here about Nokia and not sure they will come true. Nokia is essentially out of the smart phone business today and needs to catch up.

 

[OllyW]

For quite a few people on these forums - the suggestion that Apple isn't #1 or won't be number #1 in the future - for some reason - is offensive / insult statement. Yes, in reality, it doesn't matter if Apple is #1 or #3.. its the margins and sales. Apple don't need to be #1 or #2, or even #3.

They were #4 in 2010 (OS wise) but I'm sure it's safe to assume they made more money than all the top 3 combined.

 

[fourthtunz]

Or not understood.



Only if you think making something almost as good but selling it cheaper as "improving".

Heh, I was referring to DOS.
MS has paid APPLe for "borrowing" pieces of the Mac gui.

 

[Popeye206]

For quite a few people on these forums - the suggestion that Apple isn't #1 or won't be number #1 in the future - for some reason - is offensive / insult statement. Yes, in reality, it doesn't matter if Apple is #1 or #3.. its the margins and sales. Apple don't need to be #1 or #2, or even #3.

Agreed. It's possible for the iPhone vs other models of smart phones to be the #1 or #2 seller, but given the number of players out there and the size of the cell phone market, it's almost impossible for Apple to be the overall number one provider against the combination of all the others. In overall market share Apple will always be a couple notches down.

Like all stats... it's how you count the numbers.

 

[Gatesbasher]

Heh, I was referring to DOS.
MS has paid APPLe for "borrowing" pieces of the Mac gui.

"Borrowing"! Yeah...good times!

Actually, DOS was stolen property as well. It's just that Microsoft didn't do the stealing. Seattle Computer Products wrote an unauthorized port of CP/M for the X86 processor. Microsoft just bought them, so that takes the curse off...I think that's the reasoning.

 

[fourthtunz]

The only people that _think_ it's the first real smart phone, are some Apple users, and those without any experience prior to the iPhone.

I've been a hardcore cellular & smartphone user before the category of "smartphone" existed. I've had loads of phones before and up to the present time. I've owned every model of iPhone. It was definitely not the first. That's not to say it's not a good phone, just not the first.

Where it did set a high standard is the touchscreen quality and responsiveness. The brilliance of getting people addicted to apps, and getting them locked down into iTunes. A true money maker.

If five years earlier one would have said there'd be a phone that made fart sounds from an app, people would have laughed. How classy is that ?
Perfect for entertaining the kids. Fisher Price of phones.

Right, yet the android team are ex-apple employees copying the iphone and
most other phone makers are too.
Within 4 years Apple is in 3rd place for phone sales... ahead of blackberry!
What you miss is that the iphone is elegant, much like Macs, and that is why they are in 3rd place and being copied.

 

[fourthtunz]

LOL. Ignorant.

I used a smartphone back in 2005 very well without requiring a stylus.

Hows your white iPhone - still vapourware? ;-)

Right, back when apple was not in the phone business.
Now in 2011 you're using a phone that copied the iphone and trolling on
a mac site.

 

[*LTD*]

The world doesn't revolve around Apple!

Yeah, it just looks to them for direction and its consumer tech roadmap for the next 3-5 years. No biggie.

Compare the "smartphone" world pre June 2007 to post June 2007.

It's like going from this:

To this:

In what, only about two years?

Thanks to Apple.

I know. It sucks to give JUST ONE company virtually all the credit. Seems unfair and all that. But that's Apple for ya. Hey, don't blame me, blame the great minds in Cupertino.

 

[gnasher729]

For quite a few people on these forums - the suggestion that Apple isn't #1 or won't be number #1 in the future - for some reason - is offensive / insult statement. Yes, in reality, it doesn't matter if Apple is #1 or #3.. its the margins and sales. Apple don't need to be #1 or #2, or even #3.

I think the real insult is the insult to everyone's intelligence that IDC is committing. There are no grounds right now to make any predictions whatsoever where WP7 will be going in four years time. It is new and not quite there yet, it has had no time to build a reputation, either good or bad. Nokia and Microsoft have a reputation; anyone can decide if that is a reputation that would make you buy a phone from them. Making predictions based on what the world knows right now is ridiculous. I call IDC clueless for predicting 20% market share for WP7 in 2015; I would call them clueless if they predicted 1% as well.

 

[dgree03]

Yeah, it just looks to them for direction and its consumer tech roadmap for the next 3-5 years. No biggie.

Compare the "smartphone" world pre June 2007 to post June 2007.

It's like going from this:

To this:

In what, only about two years?

Thanks to Apple.

I know. It sucks to give JUST ONE company virtually all the credit. Seems unfair and all that. But that's Apple for ya. Hey, don't blame me, blame the great minds in Cupertino.

Do you even believe the hyperbole coming out of your own mind?

Apple changed the touchscreen phone world. But to say they changed the "smartphone world" is ridiculous.

Palm, Nokia, Sony, Samsung, Motorola, HTC, Blackberry... we very well established LOOOOOONG before apple came on the scene.

If ANYTHING apple should thanks those above companies for being pioneers in "smartphone" world.

 

[fourthtunz]

Do you even believe the hyperbole coming out of your own mind?

Apple changed the touchscreen phone world. But to say they changed the "smartphone world" is ridiculous.

Palm, Nokia, Sony, Samsung, Motorola, HTC, Blackberry... we very well established LOOOOOONG before apple came on the scene.

If ANYTHING apple should thanks those above companies for being pioneers in "smartphone" world.

Palm, Nokia, Sony, Samsung, Motorola, HTC, Blackberry... we very well established LOOOOOONG before apple came on the scene.

Right, and now most of them are lagging behind apple and or trying to copy their iphone.
The phones before the iphone may have been called smart phones
but are no where near as useful as the iphone.
That said, competition is what got the iphone where it is.

 

[nylonsteel]

well i'm not thrilled with windows os
but at least i hope symbian goes away finally

 

[*LTD*]

Do you even believe the hyperbole coming out of your own mind?

Apple changed the touchscreen phone world. But to say they changed the "smartphone world" is ridiculous.

It's true. Absolutely true. No one, but NO ONE saw that coming and what Apple would actually accomplish. The competition was completely, utterly unprepared. Not to mention the carriers. Apple changed the smartphone world *completely.* It's nothing like it was before June 2007. It's pretty astounding, to say the least.

Apple turned everyone else's mobile strategy into pure dog-**** almost overnight: Palm's, Nokia's, Microsoft's . . . everyone. Apple destroyed MS' entire mobile framework utterly - a decade's worth of work rendered meaningless. They sent Nokia into a downward spiral. Palm just sputtered for a while and then died. Motorola nearly had to go dark for a year. The casualty list goes on.

Everyone had to readjust or even rebuild completely.

 

[Stella]

The phones before the iphone may have been called smart phones
but are no where near as useful as the iphone.

Evidence is right there that you've never used any smartphone before the iPhone. If you had, you would realize how incorrect your comment is.

Pre iphones could email, browse internet, play games, and run applications. Many kinds of applications you see on the iphone today were available before the iPhone came along. Excluding Fart applications.

 

[Stella]

I was talking generally - and will stand by it - some people on these forums get very offended if you say iPhone isn't #1 or won't be in the next 5 years.

Anyway, I agree - IDC are making big assumptions - however, its a best guess - and there's nothing wrong with that. Nokia will still make a large impact in the marketshare of WP7 - even if its not at the estimated IDC levels. Nokia aren't going to lose all their existing smartphone customers - sure, some will go to Android, iOS , but others will remain Nokia customers.

3 years and beyond is a long time in the smartphone world because its so fast pace. One new smartphone OS could change the environment, as we saw with the iOS. Google could lose the Java lawsuit with Oracle... this would also change things. Also, consumers are flickle.. products and companies fall in and out of 'fashion'.

Don't underestimate the ability of Nokia to sell smartphones - because they will - on a large scale. Sure, Nokia are going through a tough time at the moment - but the brand is strong.

I think the real insult is the insult to everyone's intelligence that IDC is committing. There are no grounds right now to make any predictions whatsoever where WP7 will be going in four years time. It is new and not quite there yet, it has had no time to build a reputation, either good or bad. Nokia and Microsoft have a reputation; anyone can decide if that is a reputation that would make you buy a phone from them. Making predictions based on what the world knows right now is ridiculous. I call IDC clueless for predicting 20% market share for WP7 in 2015; I would call them clueless if they predicted 1% as well.

 

[Gatesbasher]

There are always precursors to everything. Units that looked like "smart" phones before the iPhone came out aren't as "smart" as some of today's dumb phones. It's a made-up category, so anyone can claim a place in it.

Alfred North Whitehead was talking about science, but the same principle holds in technology: "Everything of importance has been said before, by someone who did not discover it."

 

[Stella]

There are always precursors to everything. Units that looked like "smart" phones before the iPhone came out aren't as "smart" as some of today's dumb phones. It's a made-up category, so anyone can claim a place in it.

Alfred North Whitehead was talking about science, but the same principle holds in technology: "Everything of importance has been said before, by someone who did not discover it."

Smells like flame bait...!

Back up your statement with specific examples.

Thank you,

 

[dgree03]

It's true. Absolutely true. No one, but NO ONE saw that coming and what Apple would actually accomplish. The competition was completely, utterly unprepared. Not to mention the carriers. Apple changed the smartphone world *completely.* It's nothing like it was before June 2007. It's pretty astounding, to say the least.

Apple turned everyone else's mobile strategy into pure dog-**** almost overnight: Palm's, Nokia's, Microsoft's . . . everyone. Apple destroyed MS' entire mobile framework utterly - a decade's worth of work rendered meaningless. They sent Nokia into a downward spiral. Palm just sputtered for a while and then died. Motorola nearly had to go dark for a year. The casualty list goes on.

Everyone had to readjust or even rebuild completely.

See this is were I think your making a cave and living in Apples A#$s.

Apple took what was ALREADY available technology in OTHER smart phones, put it on pretty hardware and called it the iphone.

Heck apple even left out functionality that was already available on other platforms (High res camera, cut and paste, MMS, video recording, multiple email accounts, exchange capablities, multitasking etc.)

I wont even say they made smartphones more mainstream, because the price of entry was ridiculous at that point.

Apple made what other companies have been doing for years, prettier. They made the touchscreen more useful than any other company. Apple moved the industry in that aspect.