He was right in someways and wrong in others. The traditional PC is also not a focal point in our lives anymore. On that point he was right. But he was wrong about the PC becoming a niche which a handful of people use. The PC is still a very important device.
My smartphone has replaced my computer in many ways. It replaced my computer where it failed as a convenient device. For example, when I wake up and quickly want to look at my stocks. I want to check my messages. Respond to a quick message. Look for directions. Look up information. Read the news. Talk to my friends. Make a phone call. etc. My SmartTV probably has replaced my computer in many other ways. For example, watching an internet video is probably still better on my TV than it is on my PC. There might be more smart devices to come which fill other niche role.
But they still cannot replace a PC. The PC is still super important. PCs just don't get upgraded as often anymore and people generally have only one or two per household now (hence the declining revenue). But they are still close second for our most used devices and I don't see them going anywhere.
If I want to type up a long message. Write a factum. Prepare a spreadsheet. Research something more complicated. I needed a PC. I could very easily spend 8-9 hours a day on those tasks and I needed a device which was quick and simple even if it isn't the most intuitive. I needed the ability to quickly switch between Windows, without having to move my hand from the keyboard. It speeds up my productivity. I needed a device I could type on quickly. Without having to look at what I am typing. I needed the ability to sit comfortably and still operate the device.
The tablet didn't fit into any of these niches quite well. The way I see it is a hybrid, somewhere in between a smartphone and a full sized laptop. An iPad is horrible to type up anything long. Especially if you have to follow certain formatting requirements. The software is simply to weak to keep up with those demands. Its too big to be a good on the go device or a device for short message or quick research device. The only place the iPad excelled was as a content consumption device to be used on transport device like an airplane or a bus or the back seat of a car where a laptop is too cumbersome and a smartphone screen might be too small.
I tried replacing my laptop with an iPad. It did not work. The iPad UI is designed for simple tasks not anything this complex. I remember trying to type notes in class and getting frustrated every time I made a mistake (yes I used a bluetooth keyboard). I couldn't backspace my mistake, I couldn't scroll up quickly to fix a mistake. I couldn't format everything correctly. I couldn't quickly switch between two different tasks. It was really frustrating. I remember missing things I didn't think were important, like ALT/Command Tab or the ability to quickly open new Window, or the ability to open up two programs side by side.
If you think you can do it. I challenge you to try writing a 55 page document on an iPad and include foot notes. Try to type something and be sure that the spelling is perfect. Try to handle a complex spreadsheet on an iPad. You can probably do all of it. But it will be a cumbersome and frustrating experience. Just wait for the first time you have too edit your document, you will be begging for a mouse, a keyboard and a bigger screen. In fact on some of these tasks, I still prefer to use a traditional desktop type set up over a laptop.
The Surface is succeeding because it is a unique product which gives you the best of both worlds. I succeeds where the tablet excels but it also works well as a traditional computer. Attach it to a dock, and effectively you have a desktop computer with a full desktop operating system. On the go, you have perfect device to read something or consume content. Away from your desk, you effectively have a laptop. That's why the Surface is selling well. But the problem with the Surface is that it is ahead of its time. It doesn't have enough power to dislodge my Desktop or my Laptop yet. It can only do very basic things. But this is where I see the market going.
Personally I still think in 20-40 years the smartphone will probably replace laptops and desktops for most things. They will probably become our only computing device. But they won't be in the current form factor. I could see an on the go phone being the size of a smartphone, with the same UI as our current smartphone. However, I also see them having docking abilities and enough power to power at least 3 monitors, and have a traditional mouse and keyboard with a UI which compliments the mouse and keyboard.
Windows 10 is kinda suggesting that is the direction Microsoft is pushing its devices. I could imagine a Windows Phone like device, which has the modern Start Screen when using it as a smart phone. A traditional Start Menu when using it as a desktop device. Something in between when docked into a laptop shell.
The only people who will be left using full fledged PCs are the people who need a lot of power, like video editors or gamers etc.
