Unfortunately I think that's about right. It's not about altruism and saving the Internet, it's about stopping people playing free Flash games when they could be buying them from the App store. And watching free video, and other companies' subscription video.
That makes no sense—you’re taking Apple’s often-repeated reputation for greed (vs. Microsoft and Adobe?) and working backwards to make the facts fit. But Apple delivers tons of free video via YouTube, and other video sources do so via their own free apps. Apple serves up TONS of free games, and pays the server costs while getting none of the ad revenue! So Apple loses money when you play a free iPhone game vs. playing a free Flash game.
You're right, for Apple it's not about saving us from buggy, slow, battery-burning Flash to "save the Internet." It's about:
a) Making the user experience better to boost hardware sales. (For all the clamor in tech forums, the absence of Flash doesn't actually ruin Apple's sales. Not like crashes, slowdowns and dead batteries would.)
b) Keeping the OS under Apple's control so that Apple can fix problems, add features, and even innovate at the deepest hidden levels, without needing Adobe's cooperation and being dependent on Adobe's quality control. (Read up on the problem of Flash still being 32-bit while Apple was trying to move OS X to 64-bit. It matters.) You could say "make Flash optional then" but if tons of Web sites install it anyway, that solves nothing. It's still part if the system, and when Flash fails or runs slowly (seriously--spend time with it on other mobile platforms or OS X) most people won't say "Flash sucks," they'll say "my iPad sucks."
c) Many/most Flash games, menus, and even video players would not even WORK on a touch device. They are coded to use button down/up events and rollovers--like video controls that pop up when you mouse over--that simply have no equivalent in touch. (Imagine what happens when you click a video—it pauses. Versus when you mouse over it without clicking: controls appear. Versus when you right-click—you get a menu with security settings. How does touch distinguish those three? It doesn’t without the Flash content being completely re-done for multitouch—in which case, just re-do it with HTML 5 or as a native app.) Plus Flash games apps often expect a single-pixel mouse arrow, not a finger touch, so the while UI, when it does work, would feel imprecise and frustrating. Is every Flash site going to reprogram everything to no longer use mouse-over functions and small button areas? No.
Better (for Apple) to forget those few who NEED Flash (or think they do) and let them buy something else--like a MacBook.
Yes, both a) and b) come down to money. They're still good reasons, though, so I don't expect them to change. These iPad videos are just careless mock-ups, and an embarrassment for Apple.
I’ll change my mind when Flash becomes efficient and stable, and every major Flash site re-writes all their Flash for multi-touch instead of mouse-over. It won’t happen.
People who think they need Flash on the iPad would HATE it if they actually got what they’re asking for and tried to use it.