iPhone 16 Pro Demand Has Been Lower Than Expected, Analyst Says

[muadibe]

Attributing the difference in sales between the pro and regular to delayed AI features, which are delayed for ALL models, is illogical.

 

[lilkwarrior]

It’s a solid tock release. Some of the major updates like better microphones and thermals aren’t sexy and won’t move units, but will pay dividends down the line.

FWIW I’m watching close to see why Apple included the capture button on the base models. Not doing that would increase margins for those phones and probably increase ASP’s as many would go to the pro for that feature. I think there’s a longer game here. It does nudge users to take more landscape photos and videos, but I’m not sure what Apple’s payoff would be with that 🤔

…It’s just as good for portrait video as well; it significantly improved experimentation and usage of media content production that translates to more media produced by phones.

 

[brofkand]

I find it funny that you say that what I said is basically a fallacy or mild gaslighting.

Are you the authority that phone design should be ever changing? Technology spaces can be different but they have common tendencies when the technology is matured, advancement stagnates that is what I was trying to portray. Computers have been basically the same for 30 years.

And mobile phones for decades looked the same in the 80-90’s and the 2000 wasn’t much better. Why do we need radically new designs and features at such short intervals? Im not against it being different every year, it’s people expectations and then having the gall to complain like they are owed something.

The market has decided and if you believe this report, the iPhone 16 series is not going to be a success. It’s been a tough year for Apple. Nothing they released this year really set the world on fire. They spent 10 years developing Vision Pro and it’s already forgotten about.

If an iPhone with a USB 2.0 interface, 60hz screen, and huge notch is the pinnacle of smartphone technology for you - then you’re in luck, Apple has a product for you. For those of us who are capable of looking beyond to the marketplace, Apple has never been further behind. We are in another Spindler era.

 

[cyb3rdud3]

that's why Apple (and the US) don't want Huawei and other companies to come.. At least Huawei is trying with their tri-fold phone and doing something new..

Perhaps, or perhaps it is the misrepresentation of security patch levels on their devices, or the government interference, or the data mining. Nope wouldn't ever have one, and any corporate network with some level of protection will automatically block a fair few models from Huawei.

 

[echo44]

We don’t need an analyst to tell us this. We can see by the fact that no model is back ordered further than 2 weeks…

can you help me out by telling me how many they made? Is their production run the same as last year or higher? Without that data nobody has any idea in reality how sales are going.

 

[mabaker]

hmmm, so that's what happens when you dripfeed new features year after year. not surprised

Preach

 

[MilaM]

Is this part 1 of the three-part play where it’s first reported that iPhone sales appear lacklustre, followed by sales of them being in short supply, and finally of Apple announcing another insanely profitable quarter?

I swear - this seems to play out every year without fail.

IPhone Revenue is flat if you look at the last three years. Growth came mostly from services.

 

[Radin.Y]

Isn’t it a little odd to compare demand for the 16 to that of the 15, given the 15 is only a year in? Surely the number of folks who upgrade annually is significantly less than the number who upgrade biannually or every three years?

It’s completely fair. The people that upgraded after 2–3 years last year are different from those upgrading after 2–3 years today.
It’s about how compelling the device is to entice people to upgrade to the latest. It seems that 16 hasn’t been as convincing as 15 was.

 

[SmugMaverick]

But but but you can't change design every year, Apple is fine using the same for 6 years!!!


meanwhile....

 

[Radin.Y]

Kuo said a major reason for the iPhone 16 Pro models having lower-than-expected demand is that Apple Intelligence will not be available on the devices when they launch on Friday

A driving factor has got to be that, with the 16s and 16 Pros, the differences between the two lines are less obvious than they were in preceding generations. Always-on, a slightly better CPU, a somewhat better camera (but regular models also have the biggest camera innovation, the button), faster refresh rates, slightly more premium build, slight increase in battery life: for many, these fall into the nice-to-have category they can live without.

The CPU is literally the same.
The naming of the SoC is intentionally misleading. They call it “A18 Pro” but it only has 1 GPU core more than the A18. The name, I think, was one too Al to drive up sales for the Pro models by unsuspecting customers. But that doesn’t seem to be enough.

 

[uacd]

You don’t really have to be analyst to forecast “flop” in iPhone 16 series sales. People are sorta tired of buying the same iPhone over and over again, especially since they uglified iPhone 16 main camera while leaving 16 Pro camera same as 15 Pro.

While I like the square design, phone barely has any design differences from 13 series except the color. There are billions of ways they can position the camera array, and if that 48Mp camera is that good, why not increase sensor size, leave only the digital zoom option with all those new binning features and get rid of that “three-eye” madness? Getting rid of huge camera bulge would be great as well, it feels like it is growing every year instead of shrinking.

Oh btw, optical image stabilization sorta ruins Apple’s own “zero moving parts” approach. GoPro for example hasn’t any and ever since 7 it makes buttersmooth videos with fully digital stabilization. AI can push the boundaries even further.

Also most people are there not for the features but they use iPhones as fashion accessory so that anyone can differentiate and see “oh, thats the newest one!”. With new models, it is not like that and they practically look same as older ones

 

[Radin.Y]

But but but you can't change design every year, Apple is fine using the same for 6 years!!!


meanwhile....

And also @shadowboi
If it ain’t broken, don’t fix it.
Apple invests in design, creating a unique image for their products. They continue using it to maintain that image, to make the phones recognizable. It’s a marketing strategy on its own. People see “iPhone” on others’ hands. If the design changes every year, they lose that. It won’t be instantly recognizable, it won’t be iconic.

 

[PhillyGuy72]

But are iPhone 13 and iPhone 16 the same? For many, that's the real question.

I have a 13 Pro Max, personally the 16 Pro Max feels like a decent upgrade. Lot of features I do not have right now that came out in 2022, 23. I like the jacked up 48MP RAW photos (now wide angle getting that), better video...with stable Action Mode. Liking the new Cinematic audio features. Dynamic Is....that's not a massive deal for me...but it would be new to me also. USB would be a very nice change!

Other features in the past 2 years, plus new features this year. HOPEFULLY a better battery that can remain "healthy" in the next 8-10 months...no fast degrading, we'll see about that I guess.

I didn't pre-order the new phone. I'll check out REAL HANDS ON videos of this new Pro Max later this week. I might upgrade before the year is over, but I'm in no huge rush right now.

 

[seek3r]

It’s completely fair. The people that upgraded after 2–3 years last year are different from those upgrading after 2–3 years today.
It’s about how compelling the device is to entice people to upgrade to the latest. It seems that 16 hasn’t been as convincing as 15 was.

Eh, I’d argue it’s an unfair comparison, but for a different reason: the 15 was the first to have USBC, a lot of folks jumped on that

 

[iphonehype]

Good news - hope this gets some bums out of seats and getting to work

 

[steve123]

Colors are pretty much hot garbage too. It’s rinse and repeat of the same colors over and over and over and over and over again.

I agree the colour choices are a big deal and they are terrible. When you spend that kinda dough on your phone, colour choice becomes a thing.

 

[brofkand]

Is it “five alarm” time yet at the Apple boardroom? Perhaps it’s time for Tim Cook to explore retirement. Obviously he will remain involved as an Apple Fellow, but new leadership and new ideas are necessary.

 

[Radin.Y]

Eh, I’d argue it’s an unfair comparison, but for a different reason: the 15 was the first to have USBC, a lot of folks jumped on that

That could’ve been a factor. Was a great one in my own opinion. But honestly, vast majority of customers don’t even know or care. They use whatever cable comes in the box.
On numerous occasions I have asked for a cable from people (be it USB-C or lighting) they show me a cable and ask “is this good?” Because they don’t know the names of the different types of connectors. Techies like you and me can name a dozen of them. But average Joe wouldn’t be able to.

 

[nrose101]

How to fix:
MAKE ACTUAL CHANGES!
Gen-z all over says "iPhone 13 and iPhone 14 are the same, iPhone 14 and iPhone 15 are the same"

Unless an actual good change is made, I am sticking with my 14 Pro.
Also su about the AI lol.

Before this nonsense it was iPhone 6 then iPhone6s...etc...... a new number denotes more changes..hence they need to go back to the hold way.

 

[LlamaLarry]

I'll believe it when my October 2 delivery date moves up.

 

[rtjstevens]

UK owner of a 12 here; battery shows 88% health. I own two Nikon cameras (D5500 and D5) as well as a Sony 'point-and-shoot'. I pre-ordered the 16Pro for the better camera features but now feel I won't update -unless it's to a 15/15Pro as my other cameras must be 'better' (although the iPhones are easier to pullout and shoot). AI doesn't interest me much, and, even if it did, can't see much use of it on an iPhone as my Apple laptop, iPad mini and M2 mini take care of most web tasks. If the upcoming iPad mini were to have AI (as I believe it must), I definitely wouldn't buy the 16 but invest in the new iPad mini instead.

 

[johnnyenv]

I don't believe for one second your average customer is aware that the Apple Intelligence features aren't all available at launch.
It's probably due to the complete lack of justification for a new handset with let's be fair to it. The capture button only as its only feature.

 

[jtgil]

The market has decided and if you believe this report, the iPhone 16 series is not going to be a success. It’s been a tough year for Apple. Nothing they released this year really set the world on fire. They spent 10 years developing Vision Pro and it’s already forgotten about.

If an iPhone with a USB 2.0 interface, 60hz screen, and huge notch is the pinnacle of smartphone technology for you - then you’re in luck, Apple has a product for you. For those of us who are capable of looking beyond to the marketplace, Apple has never been further behind. We are in another Spindler era.

I don’t believe this report to start with. And I’ve said it before, we don’t know how well iPhone sales have done until we get quarterly earnings or a similar report detailing sales or such. People being clever by guessing from shipping estimates is both ludicrous and funny.

The market will be the market sure, and despite our criticism or not, apple knows what they’re doing, we do not.

And while I respect your opinion on what you value or not, my problem is people coming here to complain they are owed stuff (ie. USB 3 in non-pro iphone), if you don’t like it tough luck.

Last point, who said apple need to be at the forefront all the time? They don’t need to and they have shown us year after year they will delay features other phones have for a while. Me on one hand I’m happy I have a super reliable device with minimal bugs and strong performance.

Nothing against you bro, just an exchange of opinion😉

 

[Apple2501]

I’m a 4 year and up cycle. See you 18-20 when the phone even has conversations with others.

 

[nonns]

Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo today said demand for the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max has been "lower than expected" since the devices became available to pre-order in the U.S. and dozens of other countries on Friday. Kuo said his data is based on a "supply chain survey" and shipping estimates listed on Apple's online store.

Kuo estimated that sales of all four iPhone 16 models reached about 37 million units in the first weekend after Apple began accepting pre-orders, which is down nearly 13% compared to first-weekend sales of the iPhone 15 series last year. The analyst said a key factor for the decline is the lower demand for the Pro models, with first-weekend sales of the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max estimated to be down 27% and 16%, respectively, compared to iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max sales during the equivalent period last year.

The standard iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus have seen higher demand than the iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus during the first weekend of sales, but this has not been enough to offset the lower demand for the Pro models, according to Kuo.

Kuo said a major reason for the iPhone 16 Pro models having lower-than-expected demand is that Apple Intelligence will not be available on the devices when they launch on Friday. Instead, the first Apple Intelligence features are rolling out with iOS 18.1 in October. In addition, the analyst said the iPhone is facing "intense competition" in China.

Article Link: iPhone 16 Pro Demand Has Been Lower Than Expected, Analyst Says

Why are they surprised as their entire update this year was utterly uninspiring. A triumph of marketing over any real change. They’ve all placed far too much faith in the ai hype and not done enough on new features or improving old ones sufficiently. I’ve got the 15 pro max and am sitting on the fence atm about upgrading to the 16 pro max. The lack of an AWU 3 was a real disappointment and the lack of any real improvements to the AirPods Pro max as well. They would be better off moving to an 18 month or 24 month upgrade cycle and making a real difference.