iPhone Predicted to Surpass Android Market Share by 2015

[samcraig]

I doubt it will happen while the market is flooded with free Android phones.

And free iPhones?

It's definitely not in the anecdotes of one forum poster. Your post suffers from selection bias. This report is infinitely more useful for forecasting.

Oh, and iPhone sales are up. So I guess that's proof enough for you then?

Selection bias? I own both an iPhone and Samsung Skrocket. The report is about as useful as any other report. Feel free to add as much credence as you want. It's no more/less useful.

Where do you see me arguing about sales #s? Are you trying to make an argument where I've presented none?

 

[robjulo]

Having invested more in the hard and soft wares is an effect of the deserved loyalty not a cause

Just the opposite for me. I would have moved on from iPhone (IMO it is well behind Android and the new Android phones) but the only reason I haven't is that I'm stuck with the ecosystem.

 

[TMay]

As a customer - I could care only a little less about how much money a company makes off me and others as a means to "celebrate." That's pretty much backwards thinking. You wouldn't "celebrate" a gas company for making record profits off of you heating your home. No one hear celebrates the phone companies for what they charge for minutes and especially data.

Yes - if you're a stock holder you have vested interest. Otherwise - as long as the product you like is available and supported - "profit" is meaningless to the customer.

Uhm, I would argue that the current duopoly of Apple/Samsung where Apple makes the bulk of the profits and Samsung the rest, precludes most of the OEM's from benefitting from Android profitability. With that, I expect that Samsung is and will enjoy the same problems that Apple has with such a large mindshare: "Nobody goes there anymore because it's too crowded".

This leaves very little room for any other OEM's as they can't get the production costs down and/or absorb the cost of marketing that Samsung has absorbed. So abandon Android for another OS, fork as Amazon has done for tablets, or bleed out in the market hoping for a miracle of adoption by the consumer (HTC, Sony). Less choice for the consumer.

Whatever happens, Apple will continue to enjoy the bulk of the profits supported by a significant infrastructure and ecosystem that Samsung will be hard pressed to provide before the smartphone hits commoditization.

Not really seeing any other parties making much headway.

 

[cdmoore74]

If it is to other Android manufacturers it doesn't matter. If someone switches from HTC Android to Samsung Android to LG Android .... Android still wins.
.

Exactly. People here believe it's Samsung vs Apple when in reality it's Android vs Apple. Apple gets no points if someone moves from Samsung to HTC to LG to Motorola to Sony and back to Samsung. Android still wins.
And finally Android has a phone with Apple hardware quality; the HTC One. So now you have the S4 and HTC One fighting it out for your dollars instead of the S3. Take "Note" people; this is how competition works. The iPhone will be stuck at 4" Retina (insert joke here) display for at least 16 months while a civil war breaks out within Android; winner still being Adroid. The iPhone 5 is not even Apple's best selling iPhone. The iPhone 4/4S is taking away it's glory.

 

[samcraig]

Uhm, I would argue that the current duopoly of Apple/Samsung where Apple makes the bulk of the profits and Samsung the rest, precludes most of the OEM's from benefitting from Android profitability. With that, I expect that Samsung is and will enjoy the same problems that Apple has with such a large mindshare: "Nobody goes there anymore because it's too crowded".

This leaves very little room for any other OEM's as they can't get the production costs down and/or absorb the cost of marketing that Samsung has absorbed. So abandon Android for another OS, fork as Amazon has done for tablets, or bleed out in the market hoping for a miracle of adoption by the consumer (HTC, Sony). Less choice for the consumer.

Whatever happens, Apple will continue to enjoy the bulk of the profits supported by a significant infrastructure and ecosystem that Samsung will be hard pressed to provide before the smartphone hits commoditization.

Not really seeing any other parties making much headway.

What's do you think your argument is (I would argue is how you began your thread). I'm not sure what you wrote "argues" against anything I wrote. I appreciate your post and your opinion. I don't necc disagree. But I fail to see how your post is a "counter" to mine.

 

[AppleScruff1]

And free iPhones?

Not true, the cheap iPhones are 99 cents. With contract.

 

[TMay]

What's do you think your argument is (I would argue is how you began your thread). I'm not sure what you wrote "argues" against anything I wrote. I appreciate your post and your opinion. I don't necc disagree. But I fail to see how your post is a "counter" to mine.

My argument is that you should be concerned with profitability of a company; otherwise, that company won't be able to provide the products and services that you desire in the marketplace, and without those, what drives customer loyalty?

Customers driven by price are fickle, not loyal.

 

[samcraig]

My argument is that you should be concerned with profitability of a company; otherwise, that company won't be able to provide the products and services that you desire in the marketplace, and without those, what drives customer loyalty?

Customers driven by price are fickle, not loyal.

I'm genuinely curious if you've been reading the thread or just the last few posts. I ask because I was responding to the comment which (in my opinion) was made out to be "who cares about marketshare - Apple is raking in piles of cash."

While all well and good - and yet - company profitability is important. As a customer - I care about solvency of a company. I don't (personally) cheer or care that they are making billions off me and others. I just care that they are stable and aren't going anywhere.

Perhaps I'm not explaining myself well. But I do think you are smart enough to know the difference between legitimately discussing revenue as a means of keep a company in the market vs just bragging rights about one company's profitability vs another's marketshare. Especially when it comes to Apple and Samsung. Both companies are quite liquid. So the fact that Apple makes a crapload of money (to me) isn't a rah rah moment to counter Samsung's marketshare. Nor a means to discredit one over the other base on $ or marketshare alone.

Follow?

 

[4TheLoveOfTech]

My argument is that you should be concerned with profitability of a company; otherwise, that company won't be able to provide the products and services that you desire in the marketplace, and without those, what drives customer loyalty?

Customers driven by price are fickle, not loyal.

I currently have the Galaxy S3. When I'm ready for a new phone I've got my pick of multiple players in the Android Market. I moved from flip phone, iPhone, iPhone3g, iPhone 4 (returned it) and then went to Motorola and then Samsung.

I am not Loyal to a vendor. I choose the phone that I feel is best at the time I purchase it.

As far as the forecasting in the report goes I got a good chuckle out of it especially considering the article before it shows the title "Apple's Share of Smartphone Market Slips as Smartphones Outsell Feature Phones for First Time?"

This article is nothing more than bait to carry MacRumors through the weekend. There is always a Click Bait article on Friday. Was worth a good laugh though.

 

[pirg]

I'm genuinely curious if you've been reading the thread or just the last few posts. I ask because I was responding to the comment which (in my opinion) was made out to be "who cares about marketshare - Apple is raking in piles of cash."

While all well and good - and yet - company profitability is important. As a customer - I care about solvency of a company. I don't (personally) cheer or care that they are making billions off me and others. I just care that they are stable and aren't going anywhere.

Perhaps I'm not explaining myself well. But I do think you are smart enough to know the difference between legitimately discussing revenue as a means of keep a company in the market vs just bragging rights about one company's profitability vs another's marketshare. Especially when it comes to Apple and Samsung. Both companies are quite liquid. So the fact that Apple makes a crapload of money (to me) isn't a rah rah moment to counter Samsung's marketshare. Nor a means to discredit one over the other base on $ or marketshare alone.

Follow?

I think the "rah rah"moment is that Samsung doesn't care that when combined with companies they compete with, they beat apple. I think the argument (in my opinion) is "why would any company care about marketshare if they're being clobbered in financials?". It's not a pissing contest it's looking at what matters in business: money.

 

[samcraig]

I think the "rah rah"moment is that Samsung doesn't care that when combined with companies they compete with, they beat apple. I think the argument (in my opinion) is "why would any company care about marketshare if they're being clobbered in financials?". It's not a pissing contest it's looking at what matters in business: money.

How is Samsung being clobbered by financials. They are making money. Just not as much (perhaps) as Apple is. Again - as a consumer I don't care who makes more - as long as both are making money and staying in business.

It's not a pissing contest. Both companies are profitable. They have different business models - both of which seem to be working. Pretty much end of story there.

 

[PinkyMacGodess]

Um, it's 2013. There is a lot of time between then and now. I'll believe it when I see it. Although, with the OS fragmentation of the Android OS, and the assured 'lock down' that Google will have to do, I'll expect people to chose the iPhone more often as it is in may ways the superior selection...

 

[TMay]

I'm genuinely curious if you've been reading the thread or just the last few posts. I ask because I was responding to the comment which (in my opinion) was made out to be "who cares about marketshare - Apple is raking in piles of cash."

While all well and good - and yet - company profitability is important. As a customer - I care about solvency of a company. I don't (personally) cheer or care that they are making billions off me and others. I just care that they are stable and aren't going anywhere.

Perhaps I'm not explaining myself well. But I do think you are smart enough to know the difference between legitimately discussing revenue as a means of keep a company in the market vs just bragging rights about one company's profitability vs another's marketshare. Especially when it comes to Apple and Samsung. Both companies are quite liquid. So the fact that Apple makes a crapload of money (to me) isn't a rah rah moment to counter Samsung's marketshare. Nor a means to discredit one over the other base on $ or marketshare alone.

Follow?

My point is exactly that ONLY Apple and Samsung are making money. Whither the others? Will they die in the marketplace?

 

[samcraig]

My point is exactly that ONLY Apple and Samsung are making money. Whither the others? Will they die in the marketplace?

Who can say. Sorry - I thought you were responding to something I said or was implying since you quoted me. Sounds more like you were just adding a post (not actually replying).

Who knows. Maybe a new fork of Android will make others profitable. Maybe Windows Mobile. Maybe some brand new OS will appear in a few years and gain traction. I'll flat out say that many surveys are no better/worse than analyst reports or predictions. So take that to mean whatever you want

 

[petsounds]

Especially if the iOS software and hardware remains stagnant. People may say they plan on switching to iPhone now - but that may change at any point, if the next-gen iPhone does not stay competitive to Android flagships.

I wouldn't bet on iOS software/hardware remaining stagnant. I expect some big announcements about iOS7 at WWDC and some interesting products this fall. Especially with Ive now overseeing interface design. And remember, there are still products in the pipeline from Jobs' time. People that count out Apple usually lose their bet.

 

[DaveN]

I moved from an iPhone 5 to a Nexus 4. Really glad I did.

I to am really glad you moved.

 

[DaveN]

Judging from the posts I read here at the Google Fan Club (née MacRumors), I think Android has a pretty rabidly loyal following as well. I don't put much credence in this, and certainly hope Apple doesn't.

Amazing how many fandroids have infiltrated MacRumors under the guise of being Apple users. But then again, if you read the recent Philip Elmer DeWitt articles and see the comments, you will see that many of the fandroid fanatics are paid Samsung trolls.

 

[rdlink]

So you didn't write this: There's a reason why almost every one of my users rarely misses an opportunity to complain to me about their Windows computer, and wishes my organization would let them use their Mac in the office (And boy, how I can't wait to accommodate them).

You are a really bad liar. Take care. Have a good day.

Try again. You mixed my statements. I'll assume it was an honest mistake on your part, and you didn't do it purposely in order to personally attack me as a liar. I said that nearly every one of my users has complained to me more than once that they want to use their personal Mac in place of their Windows machine in the office. And that the ratio of mobility BYOD iOS users to mobility BYOD Android users is 9.5 to 1.

 

[hspace]

I wouldn't bet on iOS software/hardware remaining stagnant. I expect some big announcements about iOS7 at WWDC and some interesting products this fall. Especially with Ive now overseeing interface design. And remember, there are still products in the pipeline from Jobs' time. People that count out Apple usually lose their bet.

People have been expecting big things to change since iOS5 - and nothing has happened. (iOS4 with folders was really the last significant *visual* change to iOS)

Sure, at some point things will eventually change. But at this point I'm not feeling optimistic. I would love to be surprised. But I expect to be disappointed - again.

 

[Derpage]

Try again. You mixed my statements. I'll assume it was an honest mistake on your part, and you didn't do it purposely in order to personally attack me as a liar. I said that nearly every one of my users has complained to me more than once that they want to use their personal Mac in place of their Windows machine in the office. And that the ratio of mobility BYOD iOS users to mobility BYOD Android users is 9.5 to 1.

lolol..nice try....liar.

you are now on the ever growing ignore list.

 

[torana355]

The real reason I prefer the iPhone is not the hardware or os or phone company. It is that Apple has negotiated ownership of the whole stack.

The phone manufacturer does not control the hardware. Apple does.
A third party does not control the os. Apple does.
The phone company does not control what's on the home screen. Apple does.
The phone company cannot stifle an os upgrade. Apple owns this.

In short, every other phone and phone os owes allegiance to the phone company which in turn controls what you get. With Verizon, this means much crapware on the phone. With AT&T this means delayed or never implemented os upgrades. Google and others have made a pact with the devil(s) to get their phones out there and in the process ceded control to others. It's a shame, but as it stands today it's how it is.

So I'll stick with Apple for now.

The Google Nexus 4 is exactly the same.....

 

[rdlink]

lolol..nice try....liar.

you are now on the ever growing ignore list.

LOL at you.

 

[joejoejoe]

Agree with you on some points but not really sure why you think iMessage is a mess? iCloud is not dropbox - do you want it to be?

iMessage is a mess because 1) messages don't properly sync between devices 2) if I leave my iPad at home and go into a no reception zone, my messages will go to my iPad and never get to my phone, 3) sometimes I'll get a message and when I go to the conversation the message I just received will be gone, and won't appear unless I quit the Messages app or restart the phone

iCloud is a mess because there are outages all the time, my games always don't properly sync with one another across devices, photostream is buggy (photos will download automatically when I have bad reception, and then get stuck in a pixelated form and never take on their true full resolution), document sync via text edit or pages is useless, and there's a ton of DropBox esque features that would take iCloud to the next level, but those are missing (presumably because they want to fix the mess that it is before they take on new features).

Should I keep going?

 

[torana355]

And still no single example of why it was not usable, why it was not acceptable, etc.

You will never get a clear answer from an Apple fanboy on why Android is actually inferior. You will just get the generic responses like it feels unfinished or is to hard to use. I think iOS feels unfinished as i cant even do a simple task like share a file via any app or set an app to open as default!!!

 

[joejoejoe]

Um..Don't see any revolutionary product from the Samsung Galaxy S4 over the S3. After taking a look at Windows 8, I'm perfectly fine with Mac OSX.

not saying that the rest of them should be revolutionary, they make a business out of taking what apple does and putting it in a cheaper form for the masses.

I say that Mac OSX has an identity problem because of the odd integration between iOS functionality and classic Mac functionality. Moving between an iPhone and iPad and Mac is not as harmonious as it should be, namely because Apple's focus has shifted to mobile and tablet (for good reasons).

Again, there are no better alternatives out there, for me at least. I love apple, and use my iMac, MBA, iPad, and iPhone every day. But this was a company that used to demand perfection from it's products, and I don't think they are upholding these values any more.