If Mark is right, I can actually see Apple doing it. First, though, you accidentally mixed up the pricing. Obviously the iPhone 16 won't be the same price as the iPhone 15.
Than you've got to wonder: "Where would this new iPhone SE 4 fit?". Based on the rumours, it's going to look a lot like the iPhone 14 which sells for $699 and would likely see a price drop to $599 next month. My bet: the new iPhone SE is in fact a replacement for the iPhone 14 at max. $599, or given the cost savings - at best - $499. Also don't rule out the iPhone 16 Pro: it's clear Apple treats the iPhone line-up as "SE for 'budget', 'regular 15' for the majority of people, '15 Pro' as actually the flagship".
Rumours also indicate that while the design is iPhone 14 based, the chassis is similar to the iPhone 16. An obvious reason for this is to achieve economy for scale.
For me this is a clear sign: Apple wants to get rid of all the old designs, because right now they have got multiple types of production lines (iPhone 8-line, iPhone 12-line, iPhone 13/14-line and iPhone 15-line). It served them fine for a couple of years, because the designs are pretty old which means costs are going down... but right now it might be too many.
Instead, I think they might be going for something like this:
View attachment 2405685
According to the rumours, they will all be based on the same type of chassis which provides great scale of economy. At the same time, it allows them to drop older models.
Don't forget that they also want to move every model to USB-C which the iPhone 14 or older don't have.
I've listed the price of the model at $599 (what would be the iPhone 14's new price next month), but it could possibly go as low as $499 as well. We'll have to wait and see if it actually gets AI. I can see Apple keeping it away, but on the other hand, the next SE likely won't come until at least 2027... so
not adding AI might be too risky.
A great indicator will be Apple's 11th gen iPad in September or October. If the 11th gen iPad gets the A18 chip with AI, than I bet the iPhone SE 4 will too. If they don't, the iPhone SE 4 likely won't either. In that last scenario,
the iPhone 15 might remain as a filler model between the iPhone 16 and iPhone SE 4.
Also, with 3 models, the iPhone line-up will perfectly align with the strategy they are using for the iPad:
- A 'budget' model, the model for people who want something cheap: the iPhone SE 4
- An 'air' model, the model for the majority of people: the iPhone 16
- A 'pro' model, the model for those that want the greatest: iPhone 16 Pro
In terms of pricing, it's also a great model for upselling. If you're considering the $499/$599 iPhone, you might as well 'for just a few hundred dollars' consider the 'latest' at $799... And when you're considering that one, it's just a few hundred more for the absolute 'greatest' at $999. It's a strategy they've maintained for years now, across basically their entire product line-up.