Media in Germany tell people not to buy it because of the high price.
Wile it cost 400 USD in the States, in Europe it cost 545 USD and that's for the 16GB version only.
What's the price of the 6s in USD in Germany? The main thing about the SE is not so much the price, as is the difference of $250 between it and the 6s, with which it is essentially functionally equivalent. If I were buying a 6s and were aware I could get a smaller version with identical perormance and better battery life, I'd be a little upset to pay 40% more for a .7" larger screen.
iPhone SE won't last more than six months as the only 4 inch. iPhone 7 will feature three sizes including 4 inch.
SE, with its rehashed design, is not a budget price at $399. The original iPhone, an entirely new design, was priced for most its life at $399. Budget pricing is more like $199. That's where the SE will be in 6 months.
iPad 3th generation was released in March 2012, superseded a number of months later by iPad 4th generation in November 2012.
Apple is slowly learning customers want a current model design in the original 4 inch form factor and at a great price.
While I agree with you in general, I think the least likely scenario is one where Apple releases a 4" iPhone 7 in September. And even if they did I wouldn't expect a price drop on the SE. More than likely we'll get a 4" refresh next March so as not to cannibalize 4.7 & 5.5" sales, as well as boost sales during a slow period, not to mention take the pressure off of supplying 3 brand new models in volume at once (considering Apple's historical supply constraints at launch).
If Apple does what to align the release schedule, then I would expect that not to happen until he 7s. But I hunk that's the least likely scenario.
With that in mind, I see the SE being depreciated along with the 6s, which is $299 six months after the 7 release, $199 after the 7s, and possibly even keep it around one more year to offer a $99 handset. Though realistically the SE is already $50 less than the 5s. So I could see a more gradual price drop of $50 every 6 months as new iPhone models come out, since it only needs to hit $199 in order to be a replacement for the iPod Touch.
They might even keep the SE around as an entry level model, with slight case redesigns and feature upgrades, and maintain that price point, as both an entry level phone and iPod Touch replacement.