iPhone X's Already-Lowered Shipping Estimates in Early 2018 May Remain Too High

[25ghosts]

I’d be surprised if Apple plans on selling more than 65 million iPhone X this year. There are two other near-flagship models that should sell another 90 million or so. Along with another 70 million SE/6/6S/7 and it makes for a great year.

I’ll go on record now, based on my model. For Q1FY2018:

80 million iPhone units sold
65 billion iPhone revenue
90 billion total revenue

For FY2018:
225 million iPhone units sold
175 billion iPhone revenue
270 billion total revenue

The year Nokia realized that they were falling they too had not begun the year that way. They began with an estimate. The share holders of Nokia also believed in that. The rest is history, so to speak.

The issue was not the price. But the product. Same thing with Apple's iPhone X. The past years people, me included have gladly been paying a EUR1000 (which is more than $1000) for the iPhone 6 plus and 7 Plus. No Questions asked. If one can pay EUR1000 for an iPhone which isn't/wasn't revolutionary he certainly can throw in an extra EUR100 or EUR 150 if the product is revolutionary.

The iPhone X just isn't revolutionary and the reason people aren't buying it IMO is NOT the price but the fact that the phone isn't really that great - I paid EUR 1099 for the iPhone 8 Plus whereas I would not have paid $200 for the iPhone X given the fact that I find it clunky and awkward and don't wanna use clunky gadgets.

But I get it, it sounds better to blame it on the price than the fact that the product is a failure!

 

[Stuey3D]

After about 10 minutes of using the phone you don't even notice the notch. And the new gestures are very easy to use, expect one. The control center needs to be moved, otherwise, there is nothing rushed about the X.

Seriously you are happy with the extra step in the multitasking gesture?

It should have been slide hold until multitask window pops up then slide apps omitting the whole holding the app until the red stop sign appears, there is simply no need for that extra step. Once multitask window is up it should be slide away as normal.

 

[Reason077]

The iPhone X is a good first attempt at a "no bezel" phone. But it's a bit too big and a bit too expensive. Bring the 2018 version down to the iPhone 8's physical size, and price, and it will be a winner.

 

[tmoerel]

I got an iPhone 8 Plus the other day for free, I’m not paying $599(I’m in Canada) for a cell phone. I like the X and I think it’s really neat, just not worth the cost. So far I’m loving the 8+, so fast the newer Touch ID is just ridiculously fast, I’m coming from a 6. I don’t see how Apple couldn’t see this coming, its just a cell phone that does the same job. I’m sure soon the X prices will drop and that’ll make upgrading to it more realistic option.

I hope they don’t drop Touch ID I think I prefer it to Face ID, put it on the back and have both, we shouldn’t have to pick one or the other.

Sorry to disappoint you but you did probably not get your iphone for free but pay for it through your phone plan. If this is the case you got a loan on a phone and not a free phone.

Free is when there is no contract attached!

 

[skitidetdu]

Pixel 2 has a better camera
Galaxy has a better screen

In 2017 there is competition

Doesn't really matter to most iPhone users what the competition offers as much as the price does.

 

[Strelok]

The iPhone was hardly the "only phone" 10 years ago... not sure where you got that idea from. In your "basic knowledge", did you discover that typically prices of technology go down, not up? So in most cases you see prices stay around the same point with each cycle as the products get more features and faster. Few are going to buy a iPhone X without AppleCare because of the insane prices to replace the back of it ($549). So you are paying over $1000. I think Apple is finding that most people are not willing to spend over $1000 for a phone.

Intel would like to have a word with you. Nvidia would like to have a word with you. Heck, even Samsung would like to have a word with you. Prices increased for all of them at the high end. $1000 Extreme Edition CPUs turned into $2000, $1000 Titans turned into $1250+ Titans, $600-700 Notes turned into $900+ Notes.

 

[Ramchi]

While it is The Profit for Apple, The Price for people!!
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AT&T is offering iPhone 8: buy one, get one free. Sounds like Samsung.

Apple typically rumors a high price but then, at Keynote, says prices are ‘lower than you expected!’

However this year, because Samsung took the bait from Apple rumors and priced its own phone at the 1,000 mark, Apple was committed to same (cannot price lower that Samsung.

Results:
1. Windfall from Apple loyalists during launch quarter.

2. Major discounts, some akin to Samsung (buy one, get one).

3. Uncertain resale values, looking ahead, because Apple has undercut its own price structure.

Typically the high-quality hardware leader in a space will restrict resellers from discounts beyond x percent. This year clearly Apple has softened. Resale market and Brand value: beware.

Very nice observations!

In my place already mobiles are assured with 50% buy-back within one year of exchange, that includes ridiculously expensive iPhone X (iPhones are typically very highly priced here with standard increase in price $150 every year).

Even at 50% buy-back value as on today, Note 8, LG V30+, OPO 5T etc..provides far more value for money.

As you have mentioned, Apple probably started following market trends, bigger display, AMOLED, probably Dual SIM(love if this is true), S Pen, offers like buy one get one free

 

[HacKage]

I have noticed there is an almost elitist attitude to owning an iPX. Which let's be honest, is the exact thing that Angela Ahrendts was brought in to do, to make Apple even more of a premium brand, a statement.
Here's the thing though, with Chanel and Gucci and all the other top fashion brands, you can't go in and buy their latest handbags on a payment scheme. Almost every single person I know that has an iPX has got it either through contract with their carrier, or the iPhone upgrade scheme. There is nothing there to be elitist about.

Personally I bought an iP8+ outright, like I do with every phone purchase. Of course I could have went for the iPX for the extra couple hundred pounds, or just made it easy and went for the payment scheme options. The reason for not buying the iPX was the principal. I am absolutely not spending that money on a phone, whether upfront or supported. The iP8+ does everything just as fast, takes photos just as well, and holds just as much, but for less.

 

[Aluminum213]

Doesn't really matter to most iPhone users what the competition offers as much as the price does.

Apparently it does with the drop in production orders

 

[vipergts2207]

Why is that the default for folks that if someone loves iPhone X they must be brainwashed?
[doublepost=1514910843][/doublepost]I personally hope they don’t lower the price on iPhone X or the next on me. There are many options for folks under 999 from Apple.

Not everything should be priced the same and if Samsung can charge 950 for a device that has a pen and the same type of camera that iPhone 7 Plus has than so can Apple.
[doublepost=1514911043][/doublepost]

You don’t speak for me or anyone else and it’s rude to think you do. I paid for the device because I liked the enhancements.

Even if someone paid for it just because of the “brand” what business is it of yours?

I find your post very ballsy for you to attempt to make judgements about someone’s purchase.

Worry about how you spend your own money.

Triggered over a phone.

 

[spazzcat]

Seriously you are happy with the extra step in the multitasking gesture?

It should have been slide hold until multitask window pops up then slide apps omitting the whole holding the app until the red stop sign appears, there is simply no need for that extra step. Once multitask window is up it should be slide away as normal.

I normally don't kill my apps, the only one I do that with is waze, so not a big deal with switch apps being so much faster with the new gestures.

 

[alexgowers]

Just a guess but there are many factors at play here.

Jump in price means the x takes a lot more consideration and there is a bit of a dip in strength of fiat currencies right now in many countries like the UK and Europe.

The 2nd factor is upgrade paths. Anyone with an iPhone Plus is probably rejecting iPhone X as it's a smaller phone in real world use and represents only ONE choice. The iPhone X plus will remedy that choice but the price being even higher will further put off the masses of buyers who considered it an option previously.

Android phones overtook apple design wise this year with loads of great options for minimal bezels.

Lack of Touch ID and no home button mean a confusing change most users dislike.

Older apple phones are still fast and useable, at this point we are seeing the issue many iPads did. The extra features aren't really must have's or needs but merely different wants.

Many hold outs due to headphone jacks too. An iPhone X means extra purchases are needed and replacements are needed to use headphones with it. I know this wasn't an issue for early adopters but the masses really hate it.

Glass back, this while petty is a massive issue for those who are prone to dropping phones. We had glass backed phones before and a case doesn't always get you protection.

Cases are an issue. This is probably the last one, but once you put the iPhone X in a case those bezels don't look nearly as thin and when you see an iPhone X in real life it just doesn't look anything special at all.

Small battery sizes in the iPhone X make it appear less capable. Having gotten a plus, the x seems like a step backward.

I hope apple can come back because I love the OS and ecosystem of functions that go with it but I like many would prefer a second hand device to a new one right now.

 

[Juicy Box]

Why is that the default for folks that if someone loves iPhone X they must be brainwashed?

I personally hope they don’t lower the price on iPhone X

I am not sure if your second post is supporting your first one.

Your post would make sense if you were being sarcastic, but I don't think you are.....

 

[Phonephreak]

I see iPhone X everywhere all the time and owners all seem delighted to be using one.
[doublepost=1514914958][/doublepost]

Apple likes to protect its margins and rightfully so.

iPhone X is an ultra-premium device and is worthy of a premium pricetag.

Did you speak to each of these phone owners to get their opinion. Or are you just talking?

So you would rather pay more for the same device.
[doublepost=1514988194][/doublepost]

Sounds like you really wish iPhone X was cheaper. Also where do you get off acting as if you can comment on someone’s wallet?

Personally your not sleeping with me, feeding me or financing me therefore you don’t know my or anyone else’s Situation.

More and more these types of posts show up and honestly it seems like they are posted by people who have money issues themselves and are pissed or something folks can actually buy things without abandon.

It’s all good though go create a throwaway account and post the same thing again. Like a clock telling the time on the regular you and your type who posts things like this are consistent.

Angry? Don’t like when other people have an opinion? Aren’t you doing the same thing now?

 

[JediZenMaster]

I am not sure if your second post is supporting your first one.

Your post would make sense if you were being sarcastic, but I don't think you are.....

Don’t care what you think

 

[convergent]

Intel would like to have a word with you. Nvidia would like to have a word with you. Heck, even Samsung would like to have a word with you. Prices increased for all of them at the high end. $1000 Extreme Edition CPUs turned into $2000, $1000 Titans turned into $1250+ Titans, $600-700 Notes turned into $900+ Notes.

Not disagreeing that products come out that have more ability and cost more. I don't see the X as a device that has more ability worthy of the premium price. Other than a single feature - FaceID, everything else they did was catching up to the status quo... wireless charging, smaller bezels, OLED. And FaceID doesn't really provide anything new, its just different... pros and cons in different use cases. In my buying analysis vs. my iPhone 6S+ at the time, to me it was smaller, had less function that I cared about, and cost more. That led me to shop around, vs. in the past just plunking down my money for the next Apple iteration that in the past always had some things I saw the value in.

I have noticed there is an almost elitist attitude to owning an iPX. Which let's be honest, is the exact thing that Angela Ahrendts was brought in to do, to make Apple even more of a premium brand, a statement.
Here's the thing though, with Chanel and Gucci and all the other top fashion brands, you can't go in and buy their latest handbags on a payment scheme. Almost every single person I know that has an iPX has got it either through contract with their carrier, or the iPhone upgrade scheme. There is nothing there to be elitist about.

Personally I bought an iP8+ outright, like I do with every phone purchase. Of course I could have went for the iPX for the extra couple hundred pounds, or just made it easy and went for the payment scheme options. The reason for not buying the iPX was the principal. I am absolutely not spending that money on a phone, whether upfront or supported. The iP8+ does everything just as fast, takes photos just as well, and holds just as much, but for less.

I almost posted this same thing in a thread yesterday. Just my opinion, but Apple is starting to be more of the "Coach purse" for tech. This is why I think so many people are justifying the "notch". It makes a statement... no disagreeing with that. The premium price of the X I think is all about creating that more expensive category for people that care about what others thing of them than real functionality.

 

[iFan83]

Sorry to disappoint you but you did probably not get your iphone for free but pay for it through your phone plan. If this is the case you got a loan on a phone and not a free phone.

Free is when there is no contract attached!

Yes your right nothing is ever free and they make back the cost by having me in a 2 year contract. That said my monthly bill only went up $10 a month and I also got 4 gb of data extra, and the phone didn’t have a up front cost.

 

[pete2106]

Every time I see the iPhone X, I'm reminded of when the iPhone 3G was announced and how Steve Jobs made a point that they wanted to make the iPhone more affordable so they could get it into more people's hands. It's not surprising but it is a shame that Apple have abandoned this way of thinking.

 

[Verita]

Brain. Washed.

Brain. Missing.

 

[ftaok]

You can all believe whatever analyst notes you want, it's your choice. Here's my take on how these particular analysts reports can be true while at the same time still be bullish on AAPL and the iPhoneX sales numbers.

When the analysts first created their estimates for X sales numbers, they used guidance provided by Apple and other sources to determine what the yields were for these new parts (particularly the FaceID components). All of the reports back in July-August 2017 were pointing to low yields for these parts, therefore leading to a delayed launch and low availability.

In December, I recall two things happening. Rumors (from Ming Kuo) indicated that yields for FaceID components were improving more than expected and Apple lowering the specs on these parts to increase yields. If either of these things were true (or even both), then Apple could produce and ship more X's. Thus leading to higher sales and better availability.

So if Foxconn (or whoever was building the X) was able to ship more X's in the Oct-Dec'17 quarter, it would stand to reason that Apple would lower their orders for the Jan-Mar'18 quarter. They've basically moved up 10 million phones from one quarter to another.

So basically, nothing to see here. Except that the analysts in the original article are intentionally vague and provide only part of the story in order to drive a narrative that Apple is in trouble. They want to drive the price down a couple of bucks before earnings so they can make more after the earnings report come out.

Or it could all be true and iPhone X sales are in the toilet and AAPL is doomed. We'll know on Feb 1.

ASIDE - it's interesting that the Q1 earnings call is on 2/1. Usually, it would be on the 3rd week of Jan. Maybe Apple needs the extra week to count up all the extra zeros that keep piling up on their earnings report.
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Every time I see the iPhone X, I'm reminded of when the iPhone 3G was announced and how Steve Jobs made a point that they wanted to make the iPhone more affordable so they could get it into more people's hands. It's not surprising but it is a shame that Apple have abandoned this way of thinking.

Apple has offerings in the iPhone line that are extremely affordable. The SE is available for $350.

There's more choice now than ever before. So yes, you're right about Jobs. He would never have allowed for this much choice in the line up.

 

[Juicy Box]

Don’t care what you think

Hey, I am not agreeing with the brainwashing statement. If someone has the money, it is their business if they buy the X or not....

But, your two posts merged together is funny.

Why is that the default for folks that if someone loves iPhone X they must be brainwashed?

Then......

I personally hope they don’t lower the price on iPhone X or the next on me.

Did Apple do a Jedi mind trick on you? I know you didn't mean it that way, it just looks funny placed together.

 

[Ramchi]

Every time I see the iPhone X, I'm reminded of when the iPhone 3G was announced and how Steve Jobs made a point that they wanted to make the iPhone more affordable so they could get it into more people's hands. It's not surprising but it is a shame that Apple have abandoned this way of thinking.

Steve never cared about Apple Stocks though he worked his way around focusing more on the technology, pride in innovating (even if it was twisted in some cases), leading the industry with flagship sort of mind-set. Even his deliberations with Board was more to do with product vision, changing directors (for exposing Apple secrets outside) etc...He was against Buy Back, Dividends etc....

Now the trend is to take Apple to Fashion Design lines with Premium Luxury line up (Apple Watch, iPhone X etc..) with the new Sr VP from Burberry (AA) on board, this moving in a predictable lines.

Apple products will be soon defined as Luxury where normal people may not able to afford without pledging their fortunes...

 

[DoYouLikePie?]

Don’t care what you think

You may need to take a break from posting. You're getting incredibly emotional defending the actions of one of the richest companies in the world. It is OKAY to own an iPhone X man, relax.. It's OKAY! It's just not very intelligent or informed.

 

[Breaking Good]

Macrumors should really be ashamed of itself for such lousy journalism. If you click all the way through to the original Reuters new article you find this little tidbit:

Apple has not publicly disclosed quarterly sales targets for the iPhone X, which went on sale in November at a base price of $999 in the United States. An Apple spokeswoman said the company does not comment on market rumors.

Nowhere has Apple actually published any estimates for iPhone X sales. This is all coming from "unnamed sources".

The Reuters article then goes on to state the following:

Shares of Apple surged 45 percent this year before the iPhone X launch as investors anticipated interest from iPhone users who had gone years since buying a new one.

Of course, what the original article doesn't mention is the reason that investors were anticipating that there would be greater interest in the iPhone X was that analysts were claiming that the iPhone X would lead to a "super-cycle upgrade".

The truth is that we have no idea how many iPhone X's Apple was estimating it would sell or when.

Anybody who has bothered to following Apple products knows that first adopters have much less price sensitivity than those who by even a few months later.

Of course the price is going to drop. The prices always drop as any tech product ages. Apple knows this and works with its channel partners to ensure its products stay competitive.

All the tech companies know this and do this. Samsung was offering $150 off its Galaxy S8 and S8+ just two months after release.

Really, Macrumors, you can do better than this.

 

[skitidetdu]

Apparently it does with the drop in production orders

What I mean is that iPhone users usually don't care what the competition does unless they have had an awful experience with their iPhone and switch to android or whatever. I would think it is the price of the X that keeps people from updating or choosing a cheaper iPhone alternative. But that is just what I think...