iPod Mini in the Media and on TV?

[iggyb]

Originally posted by frankly
Right, and the reason that I find it funny is because it is what YOU THINK. I'm sure that you feel that you have a handle on the computer market as a whole and you know exactly what Apple needs to do in order to gain market share.

However, they have entire departments of people that have degrees and experience in this exact area. Don't you think that if gaining more users were as simple offering a different mouse (or no mouse) they would have done it??? That is why it is funny.

You can hate the mouse all you want. I don't disagree with you on that point. I have a third party mouse on ALL of my Macs. It is when you start attaching the decision making process of those thinking about switching to the Mac to the mouse that I have to laugh and laugh hard.

Later, Frank

First off, I've stated it's what I think, and not stating this as absolute fact. I have anecdotal evidence at best. You don't seem to get that.

That said, those same entire departments of people with degrees and experience produced the Cube, which was a financial failure. How about those Titanium Powerbooks that had poor wireless reception? Oh no, that can't be! They have teams of professionals, therefore they can never make that mistake!

You have third-party mice on ALL your Macs. I have a multi-button mouse on mine. The majority of my Mac-using friends use them too. That doesn't tell you something?

Again, anecdotal evidence, so don't take this as a statement that I believe all people are like this....but I was in CompUSA, a sales rep was showing this lady a 17" iMac (when it was brand new). When she was giving it a test drive in Word, she asked the employee, "where's the scroll wheel?". The rep then said there wasn't one, and proceeded to talk about the good design of the one-button mouse. However, she seemed to lose interest. Now, did she walk out of there saying "I won't ever buy a Mac, because it only has a one-button mouse!"? Doubtful. But her experience was not what she would have wanted. That's what I'm talking about.

In any case, I don't have evidence that they're losing sales, and you don't have evidence that they're NOT losing sales. Again, it's what I THINK.

BUT - I'm not an entire department filled with experts and degrees. I guess using that logic, I should never criticize government decisions, or my favorite football team for questionable draft choices. DON'T QUESTION THE EXPERTS!

 

[Count Blah]

Re: Where's all the whiners now?

Originally posted by splashman
Full disclosure: I was one of those who didn't believe Apple would release the mini at just $50 less than a current product -- it didn't seem like there would be enough differentiation to bother with. So Apple surprised me there.

But the vehemence displayed in so many posts following the mini's release was very surprising to me. So many angry, angry people. It was as if everyone thought they had a constitutional right to a mini at $149. "How dare they . . ." I'm guessing most of these folks had bought into their own hype.

...

Uhhhh, did you ever think that some people are bitching is because they wanted to see Apple dominate for once. It's not that we believe we have a "constitutional right" to a cheaper iPod mini, it's that we wanted to see Apple become an unbeatable dominating force.

 

[gekko513]

So true!

Originally posted by Tulse
Although I thought the mini was interesting, I didn't see the appeal until I really read the specs. Then it hit me:

The mini is roughly the size of a credit card.

The mini is the thickness of 16 stacked credit cards, or 8 pennies.

So tiny, and yet it can hold 1,000 songs.

That is the appeal of the mini.

Last summer a colleague of mine (who had gotten a glimpse of my iPod) asked me if I could recommend an mp3 player for his wife. She wanted one to use for her daily walks. She had a mini-disc player, but she thought it was too big.

I let him see my iPod, but since it is comparable in size to a mini-disc player he was not convinced.

Storage capacity was not the main priority, nor was the price. She just wanted a small player.

Now I wouldn't hesitate to recommend the iPod mini, but last summer I had no choice but to recommend some flash-player I had seen ads for.

 

[beg_ne]

I think the iPod mini will sell well to the people who Apple is selling it to, that being people looking at the high end flash based players, those people are looking at spending a base of $200.

I think with the feature set, size and iPod name Apple can get a lot of those people.

I wouldn't doubt that the iPod mini could drop by $50 or so in 6 months then Apple can scoop up some of these other people.

 

[phantompigger]

I love the concept of the iPod mini. It's small, light and has a respectable capacity. I have one of the original iPods (5GB), and I've never filled it completely. I rarely transfer my entire music library to it; instead, I just bring over certain playlists. As a result, I have little interest in a 40, 20 or even a 15GB iPod.

That said, I cannot help but compare the iPod mini's price to that of the 15GB iPod. Just $50 difference. That's all. Even if I don't need the 11GB, I can clearly see the value in it. It's worth the extra $50.

This same reaction has been voiced by many, many consumers. I don't think that comparisons to the reaction to the original iPod are all that appropriate; after all, the product line consisted of a single model at that time. It was priced prestigiously, and that may have been part of its appeal.

It's much different today. There are four models, and it's just normal compare the price of each model within the product line. Clearly, the iPod mini is the odd one out.

Apple is asking consumers to pay a premium for aesthetics, and to some degree, that's just fine. It's been doing it for years. The catch is that it's asking for a premium for a product already available in its own product line. The last time the company tried this, it was a dismal failure. The Power Macintosh G4 Cube was a poor value when compared to other available Macs, and so very few people bought it.

$249 is out of the range of "impulse purchase" for most consumers. I'm quite sure that if people have $249 to spend on something as self-indulgent as an iPod, they can come up with the extra $50 to buy a 15GB iPod. And while I love the size and shape of the mini, the standard model is not ugly and it's not bulky. I can't imagine anyone saying "There's no way in hell I will be seen in public with that white and chrome crapfest!"

Apple's likely engaging in price skimming with the mini. It will capitalize on the lust factor of the mini, collecting $249 a pop from those with bottomless pockets. And then once sales taper off, they'll lower the price to $199, putting the mini within reach of those of us on a budget (and/or those of us with a bit more brains).

Hey, if money was no object, I'd be buying these babies for everyone in my family. Unfortunately, I can't afford to pay a premium for prettiness.

pp

 

[splashman]

Re: Re: Where's all the whiners now?

Originally posted by Count Blah
Uhhhh, did you ever think that some people are bitching is because they wanted to see Apple dominate for once. It's not that we believe we have a "constitutional right" to a cheaper iPod mini, it's that we wanted to see Apple become an unbeatable dominating force.

Bitching about not getting what you want is one thing. Proclaiming Apple to be a company full of idiots BECAUSE you didn't get what you want is quite another, IMHO.

 

[nagromme]

Someone suggested that even the full iPod is too expensive because a CD player costs less.

It also has a capacity of 650 MB of MP3s. CD players are not going to kill the iPod--the sales figures are already in on the iPod's success!

And for those who think Apple will fail to dominate the new compact HD market because they are pricing the mini the SAME as competitors instead of lower.... Why should they undercut and give up revenue, when they dominate the high end without having to do so? And then, when many people inevitably see the 15 for $50 and get that instead.... how exactly is that hurting Apple?

I don't think all the angry posts really come from people looking out for Apple's own good. They come from people who believe rumors ($100 iPods!!!) and then blame Apple for the fact that they were rumors.

I never believed the rumors so I'm not disappointed.

Luckily, Mac rumor followers are a micro percentage of people, so this "backlash" is insignificant outside of forums like this. Certain wintel-centric press will gladly seize upon any such noise, though, to proclaim Apple a failure yet again

 

[splashman]

Originally posted by iggyb
First off, I've stated it's what I think, and not stating this as absolute fact. I have anecdotal evidence at best. You don't seem to get that.

Oh, I think it was always quite clear you were basing your opinion on anecdotal evidence. We got it. That's why we argued.

Nobody, not even Apple, will state anything as absolute fact, but you can bet they based their marketing decision on more than anecdotal evidence.

And nobody here is claiming Apple doesn't make mistakes. We're just saying Apple's got a teensy bit more credibility than you.

 

[rjwill246]

Why the fuss?

Apple has overpriced this device. It will still sell. Shortly, its price will drop. It will sell more. The newer greater capacity model will be $249. Apple will bundle them... ? $150 for the current model, who knows. It will sell more again. This sets the stage for the introduction of the next round of players as Apple will have a clear sense of what style people are going for, etc, etc. This item is not likely to be a loser and we need about a year to see if this is true.
I still cannot believe the anger in some of these posts. What's THAT about?

 

[the_mole1314]

Just read this and found it hilarious...

Any way you spin this it is:
1. Not revolutionary. Big capacity mp3 players already exist. With Creative Labs' entrance into the firewire arena, future nomads will have similar specs and better prices.
2. A bad fit. This product is outside Apple's core competancy - computing devices. When many are calling for a pda, they release an MP3 player.
3. Without a future. This Christmas you will see mp3 players be commoditized. Meaning that the players from Korea will be way less expensive tha iPod. The real money is in DRM and distribution (ala Real Musicnet). If Apple were smart they would be focusing on high gross revenue from services rather than a playback device.

Ironic, no?

 

[iggyb]

Originally posted by splashman
Oh, I think it was always quite clear you were basing your opinion on anecdotal evidence. We got it. That's why we argued.

Nobody, not even Apple, will state anything as absolute fact, but you can bet they based their marketing decision on more than anecdotal evidence.

And nobody here is claiming Apple doesn't make mistakes. We're just saying Apple's got a teensy bit more credibility than you.

Well......duh!

Of course they have more credibility. And I'm sure I'm biased on the mouse issue. But I'll stand by my statements. That's it.

Don't mistake me for an Apple-basher, though. It's only my opinion, nothing more.

 

[digitalbiker]

Durability?

I think the success or failure of the mini will stem from it's durability or lack thereof.

Being smaller, I suspect that the average mini buyer will want to be more active with the device. If the mini hard drive crashes, skips, or locks up, when jiggled around a little bit, it will get a bad reputation and fail as an mp3 player.

It really is competing against the smaller flash players which have no moving parts and can be tossed around and still literally not miss a beat!

We have yet to find out, just how well this new mini hard drive functions under those conditions.

 

[D*I*S_Frontman]

Mini will take off

I just reread those initial iPod release rumor threads. They are hysterically funny in hindsight!

Same dimensions as a few credit cards stuck together, sleek yet familiar design, same interface, very useable size HD--yeah, Apple is going to sell millions of these, at $249. mind you, not the pollyanna price drop everyone here is whining for.

As for the comparisons to the Cube, remember that the biggest selling point of the Cube was its aesthetics--small form factor, gorgeous casing--and aesthetic flaws like molding cracks ruined the effect. I would argue that if Apple could have produced the polycarbonate case flawlessly and kept the perceived razzle-dazzle fashion-chic undiluted, they could have sold a LOT of Cubes at their inflated price. Even today Cube owners love their units and have figured out how to jam better videocards and processor upgrades into those cases. Heck, Powerlogix offers an aluminum replacement Cube case, don't they?

Minis are a home run. Apple could have 50-60% of the entire player market by the end of calendar 2004. That should crush the competing online stores pretty effectively. If Apple is telling the truth that iTMS really only breaks even on its own @ its current volume, then imagine the red ink its competitors will be bleeding if they have to maintain the same huge warehouse of music without the corresponding traffic.

For those upset that the Minis are $249. rather than $199., remember that if they sell a million of these babies Apple will have an additional $50 million to spend on R&D to keep their G5s near the top of the performance heap, which many of us will ultimately benefit from when we buy new systems in the future. And rest assured that with their marketing genius, Apple will indeed sell MILLIONS of these units.

Remember: Apple technology makes Minis aethetically beautiful, user-friendly and reliable--Apple marketing makes them indispensibly cool. And "indispensibly cool" means people will pay whatever you ask, within reason, to buy a piece of that "coolness." Branding 101.

 

[anthonymoody]

All the people still making the "Gee for $50 more I could get another 11gigs capacity" and "that's a no brainer" arguments truly make me laugh.

Silly fools - open your eyes. Did it ever occur to you that despite similarities, these products are aimed at completely different consumer wants/needs? These people don't wake up in the morning and say:
-I want a HD based MP3 player, which one will I get?

They wake up and say:
-I want a portable music player that meets *my* needs for the uses *I* will find for it

Then they make their assessment.

I suppose you would also criticize someone for buying a BMW M3 when for *less* money they could have a bigger, larger, higher capacity, 4-door 530i. Please. Open your eyes fools.

TM

 

[estevan2737]

Margins?

Does anyone know what Apple's profit margin is on the iPod? Somewhere in the neighborhood of 30%?

If that is close then it would be safe to assume that the costs associated with the mini run in the range of $175 per unit.

If that is accurate than the $149 price tag is out of the question as Apple is not in the habit of selling at a loss. The $199 price tag would only equate to a 12% profit which is far lower than Apple has gone after in the past.

As manufacturing costs lower, it seems reasonable that the price will follow but as Apple ramps up production of this new product, I don't see how they can sell it at a much lower price.

Yes, the 15gb iPod is a better value for myself and many of you...but it is far too big for my wife's purse and doesn't come in green so I'll be buying her a mini.

 

[tbutler]

Originally posted by splashman
Oh, I think it was always quite clear you were basing your opinion on anecdotal evidence. We got it. That's why we argued.

Nobody, not even Apple, will state anything as absolute fact, but you can bet they based their marketing decision on more than anecdotal evidence.

And nobody here is claiming Apple doesn't make mistakes. We're just saying Apple's got a teensy bit more credibility than you.

Heck, iggyb, if you want anecdotal evidence, how about this:

I'm the Mac geek for our company. My boss wanted a mouse for his PowerBook, so I got him a nice Logitech Wheel Mouse Optical, same one I use at home. Within a week, he'd given it to me and bought himself an Apple Pro Mouse.

All of the people at my office (besides myself) use the Apple mouse. They didn't like the puck we got with the G3 B&W/early G4's, but they love the current mouse.

How's that?

Now that we've got our personal stories out of the way... You think that, just maybe, actual usability studies - you know, from people who've dealt with more than a small group of family/friends/co-workers - might be a little bit more credible?

[Edit - sorry about the credibility jab, iggyb, saw your reply after I sent this.]

 

[splashman]

Re: Margins?

Originally posted by estevan2737
Yes, the 15gb iPod is a better value for myself and many of you...but it is far too big for my wife's purse and doesn't come in green so I'll be buying her a mini.

Geeks, take note of the above. That is the mini's market. Not you.

 

[Spades]

My problem is that I was lead to believe I would soon be buying an affordable iPod, and instead I was given yet another product outside my price range.

A week ago I was hoping to spend $150 on a new iPod, but was ready to go up to $200. When Jobs said they were going after the high-end flash player, priced from $100 to $200, I was ready to whip out the credit card. And then, he announced the $249 price. So much for the afforadble iPod. My problem is that we were promised a competitor to high-end flash players, but delivered something in a completely different niche. I'm no marketing expert, but the flash market strikes me as very much a price sensitive market. This makes me doubtful that the mini will make a large dent in the high-end flash market. It'll grab people from the $200 players, but at that level price is less of a concern. That still leaves most of that $100 to $200 range untouched.

The mini looks good. The specs look good. I think it's going to do fine. I'm just doubtful it will touch more than 5% of that 31% Jobs claims they're after.

 

[peejay]

Re: Durability?

Originally posted by digitalbiker
Being smaller, I suspect that the average mini buyer will want to be more active with the device.

I'm sorry about your size, and all, but maybe that's more information than we needed to know about you. Or did you mean to say that the average mini buyer was smaller. Perhaps the iPod mini is Apple's attempt to be ADA compliant and provide music devices for the size-challenged.

 

[iggyb]

Originally posted by tbutler
Heck, iggyb, if you want anecdotal evidence, how about this:

I'm the Mac geek for our company. My boss wanted a mouse for his PowerBook, so I got him a nice Logitech Wheel Mouse Optical, same one I use at home. Within a week, he'd given it to me and bought himself an Apple Pro Mouse.

All of the people at my office (besides myself) use the Apple mouse. They didn't like the puck we got with the G3 B&W/early G4's, but they love the current mouse.

How's that?

Now that we've got our personal stories out of the way... You think that, just maybe, actual usability studies - you know, from people who've dealt with more than a small group of family/friends/co-workers - might be a little bit more credible?

tbutler, if you read my earlier post you would know that I already conceded that Apple may be a little more credible. I only offer anecdotal evidence and my perspective on the issue. Nothing more. Geez....I suppose the puck mouse was a thing of beauty as well? Oh, right, nobody at your office liked them. We can all agree that Apple has more credibility than little ol' me. I'm just stating that I disagree with the one-button mouse.

PS - sorry about my jab about the credibility.

 

[splashman]

Re: Durability?

Originally posted by digitalbiker
I think the success or failure of the mini will stem from it's durability or lack thereof.

Being smaller, I suspect that the average mini buyer will want to be more active with the device. If the mini hard drive crashes, skips, or locks up, when jiggled around a little bit, it will get a bad reputation and fail as an mp3 player.

It really is competing against the smaller flash players which have no moving parts and can be tossed around and still literally not miss a beat!

We have yet to find out, just how well this new mini hard drive functions under those conditions.

As an Apple fan, I sure hope they did their homework, because you're right -- if there's any buzz about lack of durability/reliability, Apple will be making major contributions to California's landfills.

 

[splashman]

Re: Re: Durability?

Originally posted by peejay
I'm sorry about your size, and all, but maybe that's more information than we needed to know about you. Or did you mean to say that the average mini buyer was smaller. Perhaps the iPod mini is Apple's attempt to be ADA compliant and provide music devices for the size-challenged.

heh heh. Cute!

 

[bobindashadows]

I think it's appropriate to send away all the people who were hideously, hideously wrong about the iPod 2 years ago. I thought it was cool, but I wasn't a member here at the time.

I just love how some people on mac forums think they can run Apple better than Steve, some people on political forums think they'd be a better congressman, senator, president than the people who do it every day. People who think that studying something once, or even for years, actually compares to actually going out and doing it.

 

[nagromme]

Originally posted by Spades
My problem is that I was lead to believe I would soon be buying an affordable iPod, and instead I was given yet another product outside my price range.

A week ago I was hoping to spend $150 on a new iPod, but was ready to go up to $200. ... My problem is that we were promised a competitor to high-end flash players, but delivered something in a completely different niche.

Exactly, people are angry about the promise being broken... except... there was NO promise. Rumor sites made fanciful suggestions based on anonymous misinformation... and people took those rumors (which were simply impossible because hard drives cost too much) and turned them into "promises from Apple."

I'm no marketing expert, but the flash market strikes me as very much a price sensitive market. This makes me doubtful that the mini will make a large dent in the high-end flash market. It'll grab people from the $200 players, but at that level price is less of a concern. That still leaves most of that $100 to $200 range untouched.

Actually, at the mini intro Steve said they are going after the ~$200 high-end flash market ONLY. That market is already known to be 31% of all player sales. (Another 31% is $150 and down, and Apple's not going for that because you can't make a good player that cheap--they hold hardly any music.)

And if Apple is only after the $200 market, then for $50 people go from 120 songs to 1,000--plus numerous other iPod benefits. That's NOT a difficult sell.

PS, Look at buymusic.com and see a 1.5 GB player for $300

(See also my market breakdown in boldface on page 2 of this thread--numbers from Apple.)

 

[mrsebastian]

Re: Mini will take off

Originally posted by D*I*S_Frontman
I just reread those initial iPod release rumor threads. They are hysterically funny in hindsight!...

As for the comparisons to the Cube, remember that the biggest selling point of the Cube was its aesthetics--small form factor, gorgeous casing--and aesthetic flaws like molding cracks ruined the effect. I would argue that if Apple could have produced the polycarbonate case flawlessly and kept the perceived razzle-dazzle fashion-chic undiluted, they could have sold a LOT of Cubes at their inflated price. Even today Cube owners love their units and have figured out how to jam better videocards and processor upgrades into those cases. Heck, Powerlogix offers an aluminum replacement Cube case, don't they?

Minis are a home run. Apple could have 50-60% of the entire player market by the end of calendar 2004. That should crush the competing online stores pretty effectively. If Apple is telling the truth that iTMS really only breaks even on its own @ its current volume, then imagine the red ink its competitors will be bleeding if they have to maintain the same huge warehouse of music without the corresponding traffic...

i still think a lower price point would make minipods even more accesible. why sell a million at [guessing] 30% profit when you can sell 5 million at 25%. as a stock holder and mac fanatic, i of course support apple and want them to succeed and we shall see.

on a cube side note, i would still love a cube, but there is absolutely no way i would pay about the same price for a less powerful/expandable machine -- as a pro user it just doesn't make any sense. that said, that's where i agree with you that minipod may work, because it's a consumer orientated product and in that market, design and the coolness factor usually wins against price.