iPod Possibilites?

[~Shard~]

Remember when Apple used to make computers? Good times.

Remember when Kodak used to make film? Remember when Sony used to make transistor radios, VCRs and cassette players?

Times are a-changing. Smart companies adapt to meet the evolving marketplace, and the evolving world, for that matter. Trust me, it's a good thing.

 

[wrldwzrd89]

and I still think the 'iPod Micro" is the best name for the ram-based iPod...

Now don't you go stealing my posts, toughboy... I posted that idea in a different thread first. Oh, and BTW - RAM and Flash are NOT the same thing. Apple's not planning a RAM-based iPod - instead a Flash-based iPod is what is rumored.

 

[dongmin]

Selling cool is fine, but Tony Hawk is cool? Madonna is cool? To clarify, it's selling cool as determined by the 14-year-old adolescent mind.

Give it up dude. Arguing about what's cool is pointless. People thought the pink ipod was the 'lamest' thing ever. Guess what? It's the 2nd best selling mini.

BTW, 14-year-olds nowadays don't listen to Madonna; 14-year-olds in 1985 did. Now they're in their mid-30s and have money to buy things, like iPods and iMacs. Apple's in this business to sell things and make money. With the ipod atleast, they know what they're doing.

 

[~Shard~]

Now don't you go stealing my posts, toughboy... I posted that idea in a different thread first. Oh, and BTW - RAM and Flash are NOT the same thing. Apple's not planning a RAM-based iPod - instead a Flash-based iPod is what is rumored.

toughboy is stealing your posts, passing them off as his own, and not even doing it correctly? Letz get 'em boss...

 

[dongmin]

No one thought Apple could make money off of the minis either becuase the drives cost so much. They buy in bulk. Maybe they shave the profit margin to gobble up market share. I say 129.99, 1 GB.

Not exactly. Everyone (including myself) thought the minis were grossly overpriced at $250. It was A LOT higher than what they were expecting given the rumors that were floating around (2gb Cornice drives selling for $70 OEM). I suspect the 4gb HDD drives cost around $100 OEM; so Apple is adding another $150 to the cost. Unless Apple's getting an incredibly good deal on the flash media OR stripping away some key functionality, like the click wheel, there's no way Apple can make any money off of the $100 or $130 ipod.

 

[rendezvouscp]

The other day my friend was listening to a song on my iPod at school, and he was *upset* (not really, but in a light kind of way if you know what I mean) that Apple didn't make a "poor-people's* iPod. This flash iPod could really do the trick, and I know lots of people in their teens that would go for this iPod, because iPods are the thing to have.
–Chase

 

[rendezvouscp]

Not exactly. Everyone (including myself) thought the minis were grossly overpriced at $250. It was A LOT higher than what they were expecting given the rumors that were floating around (2gb Cornice drives selling for $70 OEM). I suspect the 4gb HDD drives cost around $100 OEM; so Apple is adding another $150 to the cost. Unless Apple's getting an incredibly good deal on the flash media OR stripping away some key functionality, like the click wheel, there's no way Apple can make any money off of the $100 or $130 ipod.

Seeing that the flash iPod's drive would be a lot cheaper, (let's say $50 bulk), that leaves room for $100 if they sell at $150. In that $100, they could cover the rest of their costs, and possibly make a nice profit. I wish I had some numbers that could really back myself up though. Until then, you're probably right. Apple won't do it because they don't get enough profit. But who knows?
–Chase

 

[Rocksaurus]

Bottom line is this: If Apple debuts a low-end flash player, it will not be 99, it probably won't be 149... 199 or 179 or around there is what's likely, I remember when everyone wanted a 149 or 199 mini... Quit dreaming

 

[neutrino23]

No flash pods this year. Maybe a year from now. 4GB CF cards are still several hundred dollars. On the other hand, a year from now the small HDs from Hitachi and Toshiba may be a lot cheaper and with higher capacity. If the iPod mini could go to $199 and 8 GB why bother with a $150 4GB flash pod?

Amazon has a Lexar 4GB flash for $449. Not the cheapest but its a snapshot.

Elsewhere someone pointed out that it is unlikely that Apple would preload an iPod with music as they do not give you a legal way to backup your music from the iPod. More likely they would give you a coupon to download the U2 music from iTMS. This has the added benefit of bringing more people to iTMS. Why preload the music and help the customer not visit iTMS?

 

[Rocketman]

A flashed based one would be nice, but it would have to be at least 1gig, preferably 2. Can you even get a 1gig flash card for $99? I don't see apple releasing a flashed based ipod for $99, unless its like all the others with a measely 256 megs.

Buy who knows, maybe apple is trying to get 100% of the portable mp3 player market, and I guess there is a market for $99 256 meg flash players.

Couldn't that be resolved with say, two SD card slots?

 

[~Shard~]

Bottom line is this: If Apple debuts a low-end flash player, it will not be 99, it probably won't be 149... 199 or 179 or around there is what's likely, I remember when everyone wanted a 149 or 199 mini... Quit dreaming

Very true - even though Apple might be able to do it for really cheap they'll refrain from that approach and sell it for more. Not that there's anything wrong with this of course - look what they did with the iPod mini, which everyone says was overpriced, however they were sold out for the longest time and you couldn't even get one! Apple seems to know what they're doing when it comes to Marketing, price points, and all that, so I'm sure whatever they do will be very successful for them.

Next Tuesday all will be revealed - and just in time for Christmas, how convenient!

 

[rdowns]

Nope on the XM rumor... here is the new XM device ....
http://www.xm411.com/phpbb/viewtopic.php?t=3164

This seems to agree.

From yahoo:

A spokesman for Washington, D.C.-based XM declined to comment beyond saying a major product announcement was planned for Oct. 26 in New York with automotive parts and consumer electronics products maker, Delphi Corp. (DPH.N: Quote, Profile, Research)

"XMSR is also likely to announce its wearable device next week. There is a good shot this 'Walkman' type device, in the near term, will differentiate XM's hardware from Sirius," a rival satellite radio system, said Kit Spring, analyst with Stifel, Nicolaus in a note for investors.

He said such a device would "also get investors thinking about future combinations of IPOD/TIVO-like satellite radios, which would increase the value of the monthly subscription."

Would be nice if Apple were getting into bed with them but I dount it.

 

[Rocketman]

If Apple could come out with a cheap $99 player that EVERYONE could afford they would all but lock up the market. The reality is that there are a ton of people that aren't in the market for a hard drive player and the price of even an iPod mini is overkill. If Apple doesn't do something to close this hole they will face the same problem they are facing with their computer line vs cheap PC's.

1. Let's say I agree with your premise.
2. Let's say Apple agrees with your premise.

I say this.

Apple has never had a single major product success that resulted in their being able to keep up with demand. Call it "bleeding edge syndrome"

This is a problem.

All I can say is if ANY product is somehow more produceable on surge demand, Apple should give it a shot. What if they hit the lottery? Like iPod.

. . . . Now for a produceable Cube that EVERYONE wants NOW!

Rocketman

 

[sunseeker]

I think a US$99 ipod is absolutely possible.
I work in retail here in australia and our store orders 1Gb sd cards in lots of 1000 for just over AU$100. Apple could likely get these cards for 1/3 of this if they order enough. The rest of the parts are cheap in bulk also. They could probably sell this for $99 and make $50 on each one, but I think $149ish more likely.
At this price I would buy one for each of my 3 daughters for Xmas without hesitation.

They have already taken control of the hard drive market. If they can take control of the cheaper players and turn a profit while releasing itms across the rest of the world they will have it all sewn up;-)

 

[nagromme]

$99? Not this year!

2GB is 500 songs, and I don't see Apple going lower than that. A flash-based Mini sounds likely sometime, but $199 sounds like the price I'd expect. Maybe $149. (And the $249 model would remain--but get a GB increase at some point.) And how about new colors?

Apple doesn't need to undercut prices--they have the highest demand and best ease-of-use. And "dumping" iPods to kill competitors wouldn't really work against big foes like Sony--and would be bad strategy since Apple's ALREADY doing great in this field. Dumping iPods would mean raising prices later and all that bad press... and competitors waiting to move back in anyway.

XM? Doubtful, sounds like grasping at straws. Would be cool, I guess.

Photo iPod? Please!

 

[rendezvouscp]

Couldn't that be resolved with say, two SD card slots?

That's a good option, kinda like what Lacie did for their huge drives.
–Chase

 

[JeffTL]

If it's not at least a gig or two a flash iPod would certainly be brand degrading -- not what you want. And by the time you are looking at that much flash, is it really going to be advantageous over the mini?

There's also the issue of cannibalism -- if you want an MP3 player you can get one dirt cheap though the interface will be lousy, but if you want an AAC player that supports FairPlay, you have one way to go and the iPod is it.

Personally I wouldn't get one -- to me, my iPod is as much a hard drive as an audio player, especially as I didn't get the CD-RW on my iBook...and I have 2 gigs of legal music, given my 320k fetish. But for someone who doesn't want to carry the whole enchilada (or doesn't have much music, or jogs a lot) a flash iPod might be useful.

Trick would be to spec and price it such that it doesn't overly cannibalize magnetic-storage iPod sales, particularly the mini. The goal of such a product, from Apple's perspective, would basically be to expand into a different market, though probably not as low as the $50 price point.

Also there's the issue of having too many models; currently, there are 3 iPods and it's pretty easy to pick one out. The basic model is the 20 gigabyte -- for a bit more money you can double that if you want a bigger hard drivve, say if you use Apple Lossless or are backing up your whole computer to the 'pod.

 

[The Red Wolf]

500 GB iPod Extreme

All the rumors hold about as much water as the title of this post. "LaCie providing the dual striped 500 GB HD array in Apple's new stylish 5"X10"X2" iPod Extreme! Dual scroll wheels allow for two finger DJaying with hardware based variable speed. The shortened nVidia 6800 Ultra offers expansion for twin 30" displays available this November. Did we mention the decoder is a G5 running at 1.6 GHz? Utilizing the same battery in the 17" PowerBook it gets an amazing 3.5 hours of battery life on one charge! (AC powerbrick available which doubles as an AirPort Express) 3rd part port for adding a Firewire 800 superdrive! USB 2.0, you betcha! IT'S AIRPORT EXTEME! Get one now NOW NOW! Only $800. Face it its cooler than a Dell!"

When does it end people? The iPod is a good addition to Apple's finesse, but it is not the soul of the company. I stand by my statement of an iPod should remain an iPod. Unless Apple wants to design a tablet, leave the iPod alone.

 

[BornAgainMac]

It doesn't matter if the flashplayer has only 256 MB of memory. As long as their a free slot, then I have extra memory from my digital camera that I can use to increase it without any additional cost. That is the secret of flashbased players.

 

[jettredmont]

I could see Apple offering a 1GB or smaller flash based iPod for $99. EDIT: make that 1GB for $150 or smaller (or empty slot) for $99. The key is that the flash is removable. This would be popular for a lot of people who have flash cards for cameras. It would work really well for me as I would load up my cards with music as I went on vacation and then delete the music as I take pictures.

Plus, one could buy the iPod now, and buy bigger cards now or in the future.

No. I absolutely can not see Apple augmenting their sleek, seamless iPod brand line with a flash-based player with a gaping max waiting for an "expansion card" and all the attendant seams and space-wasting controls that go with it.

The various "add your own Flash!" players are the exact antithesis to the iPod design; I can't see Apple denegrating their brand with one of those.

As for re-using your RAM cards ... again, a very un-Apple idea. Don't see it happening any time soon, definitely not with an "iPod" name attached.

Face it, people are going to go to Walmart to buy their kids Christmas presents. They could disappoint the ones wanting iPods by giving them cheap flash players, or they could at least give them *an* iPod.

The exact problem: you can satisfy "demand" for the brand by giving cheap baubles away which define the brand name down, or you can keep the brand consistently just out of reach of Joe Sixpack. I don't see Apple going to either extreme; they are much more adept at walking the high-profit line between the two than in completely pandering to the Walmart or Macy's crowds.

iPod is a brand as well as a device. Devices can be designed and sold and fill great niches, and do so in a fairly predictable manner. Brands are like lightening in a bottle; you can't engineer a good brand, you can only keep doing your best until one day lightening strikes and you've got a brand which reflects your efforts. Apple is fully aware of that. When you have a brand name as a serious portion of your value, you can't just blindly steer towards whatever will get you the most sales for the greatest profit for the next quarter; flooding the market with cheap iPods which don't satisfy the user and ultimately leave Joe Sixpack thinking, "What was all the fuss about? This thing sucks!" may make a load of cash this holiday, but would do irreperable harm to the iPod image and brand.

My prediction: flash iPods are not out of the question, but they certainly won't be sold as "cheap" players, and they certainly won't look like any of the existing Flash players on the market just as the iPod doesn't resemble any of the cheap flash players. Apple won't sell them unless they offer an end user experience on par with Apple's higher-end offerings, and the expectation the consumer has of the iPod brand itself.

What would be the selling angle?

Smaller than the iPod mini? Perhaps. But there's only so much shrinking you can do to the iPod UI model before it becomes something other than an iPod. I don't see a three-line screen with a rocker-buttong "forward/reverse" control, for instance.

Cheaper than the iPod mini? Most likely, but not by much. Maybe $149. I doubt any less.

More shock-resistant than the iPod Mini? I suppose so, but then again I haven't heard any shock problems with the Mini either. THe 1" drives are quite shock-resistant in and of themselves.

I don't know. Apple might surprise me, but I just don't see a huge likelihood of this happening.

 

[sworthy]

Some people are starting to get it right...

This isn't (or at least shouldn't) happen. Does anyone realize that Apple sold over 2 million iPods last quarter alone? Predictions for the holiday quarter are even higher at 3 million. Apple's margins are good, but if anything analysts feel that they are a little low.

Why on earth would Apple make this move now and make less money than they are currently on the biggest cash cow since the walkman? I say introduce the player in another year or two (but only when we see a change in the demand for the hard drive iPods) which is when they'll need some differentiation besides cavernous hard drive space.

 

[VicMacs]

im tired of waiting

ill get an ipod on oct 27 u2 or no u2... and i jut got an ibook to last me till the pbg5 comes to town...

if you dont jump now you might step back!

 

[jettredmont]

Not really a "correlation", but rather more of a marketing strategy. I think that Apple would want to put the power of the celebrity (U2) behind the new product they want to push (the flash based player).

Why would Apple want to "push" their rumored bottom-of-the-line player? You never need to "push" the bottom of the line. The more of those sold, the lower your brand worth goes, the lower your profit margins go, etc. You "push" top-of-the-line; price is already an effective force pushing consumers to the bottom of the line!

 

[Poff]

People seem to be too sure in their opinions in here about what kind of player other people would buy.

I would really like a 20gig iPod, but I honestly cannot justify the price. It's not that I couldn't get the money, but I have other priorities.

I would really like a 4gig iPod mini, but at $250 it's still too expensive. Again, it's not that I couldn't afford it, I just have other priorities.

If Apple released a 1gig iPod Flash at $149 and a 512MB iPod flash at $99, I'd almost definitely order the 512MB version at once. And it seems to me many of the others in here are of the same opinion.

The prices are, however, more likely to be $199 and $149, in which case I'm not sure if I would get one.


Frankly, I do not need all that space. I'd use it on my way to school, in the gym, and whenever I'd have the time. But I'd normally get to change the song-content every day - so why would I need 20gigs?

And high-school studens who are low on cash would finally be able to afford their own iPod - I sense a big market here. Being cool is cheaper than ever before!


If they are priced to high, they won't be able to compete the lower-end flash-market. (the iPod mini is aimed at the higher-end flash-market - so why would they need another device aiming for the same market?) This is why I'm thinking a 512MB $99 AAC and FairPlay compatible device is not out of the question. 125songs is enough for me!

 

[headhighguy]

all speculation...

It seems all highly unlikely to me... Think more conservative! Apple has recently shown a more conservative approach when adopting new technologies and releasing new products. iPod is a Music Player, period. At least for as long as what they sell on iTunes is music... Photos, Satellite Radio, Color Display, 60GB ... all just pure speculation. There is no business reason that would match apple's strategy behind it.

I think the flash player had potential, but I don't think Apple releases an even smaller ipod as the mini. Flash is certainly the media of the future, but the prices are way too high for it right now.