Is Now the Time to Upgrade Apple Devices Before Tariffs Lead to Price Increases?

[darkmatter343]

They will have to unless they think consumers will abide a ~30% increase in the price of their phone for no good reason other than Apple wants to continue building them in China.

Could be wrong—but I think the large majority of of phones (iPhones or other) are sold through carriers with already heavily discount phone prices to lure people into contracts, so they’ll be the majority iPhone tariff eaters.

The people walking into Apple and buying a phone outright may not upgrade as often, but that’s a smaller number overall.

The buyers using Apples payment plans are not going to care anyways. If you’re buying an iPhone, especially a Pro Max with a interest payment plan, I’d say it’s a given you got into that position in the first place by not giving to cents about the price of anything.

 

[Expos of 1969]

Could be wrong—but I think the large majority of of phones (iPhones or other) are sold through carriers with already heavily discount phone prices to lure people into contracts, so they’ll be the majority iPhone tariff eaters.

The people walking into Apple and buying a phone outright may not upgrade as often, but that’s a smaller number overall.

The buyers using Apples payment plans are not going to care anyways. If you’re buying an iPhone, especially a Pro Max with a interest payment plan, I’d say it’s a given you got into that position in the first place by not giving to cents about the price of anything.

That is very common in North America (especially in the US). It is not done in most or all of Europe. I am not aware of how it works in Asia.

 

[brofkand]

Could be wrong—but I think the large majority of of phones (iPhones or other) are sold through carriers with already heavily discount phone prices to lure people into contracts, so they’ll be the majority iPhone tariff eaters.

The people walking into Apple and buying a phone outright may not upgrade as often, but that’s a smaller number overall.

The buyers using Apples payment plans are not going to care anyways. If you’re buying an iPhone, especially a Pro Max with a interest payment plan, I’d say it’s a given you got into that position in the first place by not giving to cents about the price of anything.

It's true that in the US basically nobody buys iPhones at full price or anywhere near it. Folks do finance/trade-in deals and get the phones for "free", so MSRP is basically a meaningless figure.

 

[barkomatic]

It's true that in the US basically nobody buys iPhones at full price or anywhere near it. Folks do finance/trade-in deals and get the phones for "free", so MSRP is basically a meaningless figure.

I don't like to be locked into a payment plan and/or stuck with a carrier, so I have always just paid for my Apple gear outright. I'll do a trade in, but the total price is still something I pay attention to. If there is too much of a premium over competitors then I could switch to Samsung which apparently will be less affected.

About 38% of folks pay up front so it's not a tiny number. This is from a survey by Consumer Intelligence Research Partners.

 

[UltimaKilo]

The USA could have negotiated for free trade, but instead the President chose the path of a trade war.

Fair trade, not free trade. If they lower their tariffs, the U.S. tariffs will be lowered accordingly.

 

[AppliedMicro]

Apparently we're 'raping' you etc. So now things will change, at least for a while, although I'm telling myself that deep down Apple, at least, are on my side.

We’ll see that soon.
Within months.

Apple’s products have always fetched a price premium of 8-10% in European markets (net of VAT/sales tax, but we also enjoy longer statutory warranties.) upon release.

We don’t know the exact prices and transfer pricing these devices are subject to - on which the tariffs will be calculated. It’s definitely not retail price.

But one thing is clear: If and once we see them maintaining the same price premium on Chinese-made products subject to U.S. tariffs, we know they’re not standing on our side.

👉 The next iPhone has to be less expensive in Europe (and other 0% tariff jurisdictions) - if it’s is Chinese-made and subject to these U.S. tariffs.

👉 Otherwise, European customers would pay for/subsidise U.S. tariffs. At which point I’ll boycott them - and will advocate for others to do the same.

 

[j26]

We’ll see that soon.
Within months.

Apple’s products have always fetched a price premium of 8-10% in European markets (net of VAT/sales tax) upon release. But we also enjoy longer statutory warranties.

If and once we see them maintaining the same premium on Chinese-made products subject to U.S. tariffs, we know they’re not standing on our side. They’re making European customers pay for/subsidise U.S. tariffs.

At which point I’ll boycott them - and will advocate for others to do the same.

We don’t know the exact prices and transfer pricing these devices are subject to - on which the tariffs will be calculated.

But if the next iPhone is Chinese-made and subject to these U.S. tariffs, it has to be less expensive in Europe (and other 0% tariff jurisdictions).

Then


If Apple keeps their European (and I explicitly include the U.K. in that) price premium of 8-10% for China-made over USD despite being subject to tariffs in the U.S., then

I’ll join that boycott!

 

[It’s always something]

Fair trade, not free trade. If they lower their tariffs, the U.S. tariffs will be lowered accordingly.

The President didn’t bother trying to negotiate at all. Instead he slapped these fantasy tariff rates on one and all – including the penguins, which is relevant because it shows that no one bothered to vet those numbers or countries after ChatGPT ginned them up – and then he pretended that the rates were serious numbers. They’re not. They bear no relation to actual tariffs anywhere in the world. And the fact that he didn’t bother trying to negotiate at all is why everyone is saying he has started a global trade war.

 

[AppliedMicro]

I’m really curious what Apple are going to do.p if these tariffs are going to stay.

Once thing I’m sure of: They don’t like these tariffs, nor do they like retaliatory action by other countries (China). Apple would rather operate free of import tariffs. Also, I’m very sure Apple is unwilling to absorb them (through lower margins) over the mid to long term.

So…

• They can either price their new Chinese-origin products (somewhat) transparent and honest: by increasing the U.S. (net) price relative to other to countries, to account for these tariffs. This is what they’d do in probably any other market in the world: adjust for costs of local importation. Given Apple’s cachet among consumers, it may also increase political pressure on the Trump administration to walk back these tariffs
• Or they can try to “hide” the country-specific costs through “blended pricing” by keeping their retail pricing as is

 

[Larry-K]

It’s not entirely random if they consulted ChatGPT and co.

The saddest part is that ChatGPT and several other AIs apparently doesn't know what a tariff is either.

Anybody tried asking Apple Intelligence?

 

[Larry-K]

The President didn’t bother trying to negotiate at all. Instead he slapped these fantasy tariff rates on one and all – including the penguins, which is relevant because it shows that no one bothered to vet those numbers or countries after ChatGPT ginned them up – and pretended that the rates were serious numbers. They’re not. They bear no relation to actual tariffs anywhere in the world. And the fact that he didn’t bother trying to negotiate at all is why everyone is saying he has started a global trade war.

Are the Penguins coming to the bargaining table?

Will there be fish?

Trump Administration is basically "Dog ate my homework".

 

[j26]

Can I ask a question? I suspect I know the answer, but I want to be sure.

Say you ordered an iPhone that dispatched from China yesterday, and is due to arrive in the US tomorrow. Is that phone subject to tariffs?

If it is, some people will be getting a nasty shock over the next few days! Not just Apple stuff, but all sorts of items.

 

[It’s always something]

Can I ask a question? I suspect I know the answer, but I want to be sure.

Say you ordered an iPhone that dispatched from China yesterday, and is due to arrive in the US tomorrow. Is that phone subject to tariffs?

If it is, some people will be getting a nasty shock over the next few days! Not just Apple stuff, but all sorts of items.

I think the tariffs go into effect at midnight tonight, so any iPhone arriving in the USA after that will be tariffed. I suppose the time zone might make a difference if the timing is close. 🤷‍♂️

 

[j26]

I think the tariffs go into effect at midnight tonight, so any iPhone arriving in the USA after that will be tariffed. I suppose the time zone might make a difference if the timing is close. 🤷‍♂️

Thanks. That's what I suspected.

Bad day for some people tomorrow then.

 

[hop]

Can I ask a question? I suspect I know the answer, but I want to be sure.

Say you ordered an iPhone that dispatched from China yesterday, and is due to arrive in the US tomorrow. Is that phone subject to tariffs?

If it is, some people will be getting a nasty shock over the next few days! Not just Apple stuff, but all sorts of items.

Apple has been stockpiling products in the US to try to avoid this happening, at least for a while, but there are actually goods that were ordered before the Trump tariffs were even announced, which will be subject to them on arrival. That said, I would be amazed if Apple would let a customer who has paid for a product at one price, be made to pay a surprise Trump tax on top, so I strongly suspect they would cover it for customers caught in the transition period.

One of the things I’m interested to see is what happens with Apple products, particularly Macs, which are configured to order, as every Mac I’ve had like that has been shipped directly from China.

Though from a quick play with the US store, even with the more esoteric custom Mac combinations I just tried, the longest shipping time I could get it to give me was 3-5 days, though not entirely sure if that’s from the US or quickly from China etc.

 

[Heelpir8]

Apple has been stockpiling products in the US to try to avoid this happening, at least for a while, but there are actually goods that were ordered before the Trump tariffs were even announced, which will be subject to them on arrival. That said, I would be amazed if Apple would let a customer who has paid for a product at one price, be made to pay a surprise Trump tax on top, so I strongly suspect they would cover it for customers caught in the transition period.

One of the things I’m interested to see is what happens with Apple products, particularly Macs, which are configured to order, as every Mac I’ve had like that has been shipped directly from China.

Though from a quick play with the US store, even with the more esoteric custom Mac combinations I just tried, the longest shipping time I could get it to give me was 3-5 days, though not entirely sure if that’s from the US or quickly from China etc.

I've got a late next week ETA for a 16/512 M4 MBA because I chose the 70 watt power adapter.

 

[jlc1978]

Apple has been stockpiling products in the US to try to avoid this happening, at least for a while, but there are actually goods that were ordered before the Trump tariffs were even announced, which will be subject to them on arrival. That said, I would be amazed if Apple would let a customer who has paid for a product at one price, be made to pay a surprise Trump tax on top, so I strongly suspect they would cover it for customers caught in the transition period.

One of the things I’m interested to see is what happens with Apple products, particularly Macs, which are configured to order, as every Mac I’ve had like that has been shipped directly from China.

Though from a quick play with the US store, even with the more esoteric custom Mac combinations I just tried, the longest shipping time I could get it to give me was 3-5 days, though not entirely sure if that’s from the US or quickly from China etc.

It will be interesting to see how Apple deals with it. Customs duties are typically levied on the recipient on entry, IITC, I wonder if Apple will act as the customs broker and handle the levies, if any, and not pass them on. That would make teh most sense from a logistical an PR approach. OTOH, when I had items shipped direct to me that I purchased while overseas I got a customs bill for the item. I suspect Apple is working with FedEx et al to resolve how to handle the new tariffs.

 

[weckart]

Someone from the trump administration was on a certain tv station saying that about chicken & beef in regards to Europe so they want lower tariffs on that so they then can flood the market with cheaper food so then people buy it.
That’s why

But the supply chain of agriculture and meat relies a lot on imports: fertilisers, feeds, irrigation, drugs and chemicals. Playing the tariff game is going to put small farmers in the US out of business in record time. They won't be able to undercut Europe - at best, fill small gaps during seasonal shortages but, even then, they are up against Africa, which can easily undercut them tariff or no tariff. I can't remember the last time I saw any foodstuff from the US, which wasn't packaged, canned or bottled. Even our local Costco will import poultry from Thailand for its frozen goods. There is a lot of competition. Good luck trying to flood the market. I can see the EU's going a bundle on that tactic.

 

[hop]

I've got a late next week ETA for a 16/512 M4 MBA because I chose the 70 watt power adapter.

Is it shipping from China? Be interesting to see how if the shipping tracking shows anything different, though I again assume you won’t pay a penny more.

 

[weckart]

Cheaper exports?? You're ignoring the effect of retaliatory tariffs, friend. If by "dearer" do you mean "more expensive" imports? That's true for sure! But I fail to see how any of that pays down the national debt. Those hypothetical dollars coming from tariffs (a kinder gentler word for sales taxes) won't be used to pay down the national debt. They won't be used to balance the budget. If they somehow magically materialize and we avoid a recession, the revenues will be spent and the debt will increase. That's the way it's always worked and always will work. We headed to a point where debt service consumes more than the entire government's revenues. And it won't be long if we pursue this Smoot-Hawley economic agenda.

There is a school of thought amongst some analysts that Trump's ultimate aim is to crash the dollar. This tariff war is a clumsy means to that end but it is likely to backfire badly as countries slowly but surely divest from the US. Nobody likes a loose cannon. Pay attention to the sackings that are going on in high places and the powers that Trump is accumulating for himself. These tariffs are something of a sideshow to what is going on behind the scenes.

 

[Heelpir8]

Is it shipping from China? Be interesting to see how if the shipping tracking shows anything different, though I again assume you won’t pay a penny more.

Will give an update as soon as I find out. Order is still in the processing stage.

 

[victorvictoria]

There is a school of thought amongst some analysts that Trump's ultimate aim is to crash the dollar. This tariff war is a clumsy means to that end but it is likely to backfire badly as countries slowly but surely divest from the US. Nobody likes a loose cannon. Pay attention to the sackings that are going on in high places and the powers that Trump is accumulating for himself. These tariffs are something of a sideshow to what is going on behind the scenes.

Assuming that Trump is not capable of strategy, who is pulling his strings? Bannon? Musk? Someone whose name won't even resonate in a public forum? Someone from another country, possibly an enemy country?

 

[Jimmy Bubbles]

I’ll wait until the first “Designed in California. Made in USA” model.

I can’t wait to come back and say I called it. 😎

 

[darkmatter343]

Please correct me if I’m wrong, but won’t the reciprocal tariffs up the price of iPhones for every country?

For instance, if it’s now going to cost China more to import electronic parts (let’s assume from the US, albeit I get that could be rare) that are used within the iPhone, that would increase the cost of manufacturing the phone—thereby increasing the cost of the iPhone in general for every country. Am I understanding/explaining this right?

Really interested to see how Apple proceeds with the tariffs, either holding off until the 17, doing a (for example) 70/30 split of the 40% (estimate increase) for every country so the US consumer eats 70% of the 40% and others like Canada eats the 30%.

Unfortunately COVID showed too many companies what consumers were willing to pay, and honestly this is probably too good of an opportunity for Apple not to pass up charging more anyways, regardless how the tariffs play out.

 

[hop]

Please correct me if I’m wrong, but won’t the reciprocal tariffs up the price of iPhones for every country?

For instance, if it’s now going to cost China more to import electronic parts (let’s assume from the US, albeit I get that could be rare) that are used within the iPhone, that would increase the cost of manufacturing the phone—thereby increasing the cost of the iPhone in general for every country. Am I understanding/explaining this right?

While I know the glass in iPhones is made by Corning in the US, the vast majority of components used in iPhones are not made in the US, so they should not be affected by reciprocal tariffs.

Really interested to see how Apple proceeds with the tariffs, either holding off until the 17, doing a (for example) 70/30 split of the 40% (estimate increase) for every country so the US consumer eats 70% of the 40% and others like Canada eats the 30%.

I am very doubtful Apple will try to push costs onto customers in other countries, not only because it would so utterly anger so many international customers, but also because it would make their products far more expensive than their competitors.

Also, it was a roughly 40% increase in costs based on a 54% tariff on goods from China. Trump has now raised it to 104%.