Kuo: 12.9-Inch iPad Pro and 16-Inch MacBook Pro With Mini-LED Displays to Launch in Second Half of 2020

[Glideslope]

Micro Led is going to be a game changer. I’ve been waiting for this for a long time. They are building a third plant in Taiwan. While there have been ups and downs since the acquisition of LuxVue in 2014 Apple has made a breakthrough IMO. It’s unfortunate JDI was never able to get it together with Apple on this, however while Foxconn is investing heavily it’s been Apple and TSMC creating the breakthrough.

TSMC is dominant in all things micro.

 

[deconstruct60]

Also, HDR will hurt battery performance. Maybe the mini LED is efficient enough to minimize the impact of a brighter display? It is definitely a consideration ..

Mini-LEDS should allow Apple to provision more local dimming zones. Pretty good chance this is more about darker darks than about brighter brights. The current iPad Pro 12.9 does 600 nits . That isn't HDR1000 but it would be more than decent to be HDR600. The bigger HDR600 issue is probably hitting the 0.1 Max black luminance. ( if they were shooting for HDR1000 the 0.05 would be even bigger issue than the brightness bump. )

More lights that you can optionally turn off (or significantly dim) would be better. That's is what mini-LEDs mostly allow for.

P.S. Dark mode + more local dimming actually gets better battery life; not worse. 700 nits and a broader contrast range would be an substantively incrementally improved screen without trying to get into some kind of pissing match with the XDR.

 

[deconstruct60]

That could also mean that Apple will release an A14X Apple TV in 2020. That's a fun thought!

Actually I suspect they'd transition it to the A12X since that would be a "fully paid for" design at that point that would be on a cheaper , more mature process. ( cheaper wafer starts for Apple). I don't see how AppleTV competes at the same price levels it has now. Much of the "exclusivity" to Apple media content stream is now gone. A $60-90 streamer or the smartTV can do it too. So why would folks want to pay more for they already have????? Given there is even more competitors now, AppleTV's current price is a bigger boat anchor.

Apple can try to lean on Apple Arcade and AppleTv being an inexpensive gaming device. ( " matches the GPU power of the Xbox One S game console with no fan and at a fraction of the size " ) but they'd probably want to bump the local storage (and RAM ) too. I can't see them doing all three SoC , RAM , and NAND storage and keeping the cost the same. [ Yes the Xbox and PS folks will be moving up to "next gen" in 2020 , but it won't be at AppleTV prices . ]

If Apple stuffs the A14X into something other than an iPad Pro in 2020, then it would be more like the return of the iBook ( or some MacBook 'fork' ). I thought they were going to put the A12X in AppleTV in October 2019. ( but that could have been thrown off by the iPad Pro sliding and still consuming the A12X volume they want to make. )

Outside of gaming, the A14X would be extremely gross overkill for what AppleTV mainly does. ( even with possibly some HomeKit security video transcoding/encryption to do ).

 

[BootLoxes]

Actually I suspect they'd transition it to the A12X since that would be a "fully paid for" design at that point that would be on a cheaper , more mature process. ( cheaper wafer starts for Apple). I don't see how AppleTV competes at the same price levels it has now. Much of the "exclusivity" to Apple media content stream is now gone. A $60-90 streamer or the smartTV can do it too. So why would folks want to pay more for they already have????? Given there is even more competitors now, AppleTV's current price is a bigger boat anchor.

Apple can try to lean on Apple Arcade and AppleTv being an inexpensive gaming device. ( " matches the GPU power of the Xbox One S game console with no fan and at a fraction of the size " ) but they'd probably want to bump the local storage (and RAM ) too. I can't see them doing all three SoC , RAM , and NAND storage and keeping the cost the same. [ Yes the Xbox and PS folks will be moving up to "next gen" in 2020 , but it won't be at AppleTV prices . ]

If Apple stuffs the A14X into something other than an iPad Pro in 2020, then it would be more like the return of the iBook ( or some MacBook 'fork' ). I thought they were going to put the A12X in AppleTV in October 2019. ( but that could have been thrown off by the iPad Pro sliding and still consuming the A12X volume they want to make. )

Outside of gaming, the A14X would be extremely gross overkill for what AppleTV mainly does. ( even with possibly some HomeKit security video transcoding/encryption to do ).

What about the A13? Its lower powered and still offers great performance. Plus they can remove the apple tv fan and shrink the size back down to what it used to be. Or they could leave a fan in for sustained gaming without thermal throttling (speculation)

 

[UglyCowboy]

If mini-LED comes to a 16" screen it would be an expensive niche upgrade option similar to OLED upgrades today. There are two professional mini-LED desktop monitors on the market, XDR and ASUS, and those are $5K and $4K+ monitors respectively. They are not even shipping yet as the tech is so new. If Kuo's rumor is to be believed the number of uber expensive mini-LED's in the 16" screen would far surpass even the $4K+ monitors on the market now. The benefit, local dimming for increased contrast, may not outweigh the asking price. There is zero chance a 16" mini-LED screen with 10K LEDs will be included as a standard option with minimum price increases. Also, local dimming introduces artifacts that many OCD mac users will surely whine about. Regardless, I'm glad to see Apple continuing to make progress by giving customers new options.

 

[EugW]

Just to reiterate: Mini-LED ≠ Micro-LED

it seems some people in this thread are still confusing the two technologies.

 

[LuciusWrong]

Depends on your 2x speed requirements. I'd expect it to be 2x the speed in nearly all requirements though.

The multi core geekbench for the 2.3ghz is 196% of my 2013....which is also 2.3ghz. So an interesting data point of new 8 core vs old 4 core. The 2.4ghz is over 2x, but it isnt fair to compare the old mid level to the new top level, right?

I suppose it is impressive that they are running twice as many cores in almost exactly the same package, with roughly the same battery and battery life. (The 2012 retina through 2015 is almost exactly the same size, weight, dimensions, battery capacity, etc as the 16". But everyone only compares it the 16" to the touch bar machines?)

Of course the 16" is going to be way faster for gpu intensive work. There is no doubt about that. But i dont actually benefit from that.

 

[Metrosey]

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The multi core geekbench for the 2.3ghz is 196% of my 2013....which is also 2.3ghz. So an interesting data point of new 8 core vs old 4 core. The 2.4ghz is over 2x, but it isnt fair to compare the old mid level to the new top level, right?

I suppose it is impressive that they are running twice as many cores in almost exactly the same package, with roughly the same battery and battery life. (The 2012 retina through 2015 is almost exactly the same size, weight, dimensions, battery capacity, etc as the 16". But everyone only compares it the 16" to the touch bar machines?)

Of course the 16" is going to be way faster for gpu intensive work. There is no doubt about that. But i dont actually benefit from that.

Yes, understandable

 

[radiologyman]

I am on MacRumors using safari dark mode, I see large portions of the display where it can be turned off. Anyone can estimate potential energy savings from MiniLED?

 

[deconstruct60]

What about the A13? Its lower powered and still offers great performance.

Not as good as the A12X though.
Previously linked in A12X article. https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2018/11/apple-walks-ars-through-the-ipad-pros-a12x-system-on-a-chip/ GFXBench Metal 4 offscreen 383 / 201 ( T-Rex / Manhattan )

iPhone 11 benchmarks (with A12 ) same folks. https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/201...ro-max-review-high-quality-for-high-prices/4/ GFXBench Metal 4 offscreen 275 / 139 ( T-Rex / Manhattan )

A12X Sling Shot 3.1 Graphics / Physics 13,224 / 4,686
https://www.anandtech.com/show/13661/the-2018-apple-ipad-pro-11-inch-review/6

A13 Sling Short 3.1 Graphics / Physics 8,677 / 3,527
https://www.anandtech.com/show/14892/the-apple-iphone-11-pro-and-max-review/6


The A13 is better than the A12, but still significantly trailing the A12X in graphics 'horsepower'.


The current Apple TV is limited by 3GB of RAM too ( the iPad Pro now has 4GB and optionally 6GB. New TV could at least get 4GB. ). Pushing 4K HDR screens more memory is probably going to help.

Plus they can remove the apple tv fan and shrink the size back down to what it used to be. Or they could leave a fan in for sustained gaming without thermal throttling (speculation)

The Fan would help the A12X also and it is already ahead. The A12X also has an advantage in that the CPU die is not stacked on top the RAM inside the chip package. RAM is separate on the board. ( Not only a fan, but can cool the components better because they are spread out more. )

The size isn't going to make much of difference compared to the dongle alternatives it is going to compete with now (nevermind the100% integrated into the TV size reduction). The Apple TV app running on the top two streaming dongle vendors ( Roku and Amazon Fire) that market is pretty much toast for Apple. ( the below cost dumping of those this Black Friday and Cyber Monday, $30 and $25 respectively ... Apple isn't getting anywhere near that slugfest. That why they deployed the Apple TV app there. )

If Apple is going to lean heavily on the gaming differential then they'll need to keep the fan.

 

[MacBH928]

I am not against things getting better, but... displays today already look beautiful. Maybe we should concentrate on another technology?

 

[everythingapplerainbow]

12.9-inch iPad Pro with an A14X chip

why there's no A11X and A13X???

 

[deconstruct60]

If mini-LED comes to a 16" screen it would be an expensive niche upgrade option similar to OLED upgrades today. There are two professional mini-LED desktop monitors on the market, XDR and ASUS, and those are $5K and $4K+ monitors respectively. They are not even shipping yet as the tech is so new.

ASUS is shipping. Amazon can ship right now.
https://www.amazon.com/PA32UCX-Professional-Thunderbolt-DisplayPort-Displayhdr1000/dp/B07XTYZQM2/
BH backorder but have shipped.
https://www.bhphotovideo.com/c/product/1485224-REG/asus_32_proart_pa32ucx_4k.html
Newegg in stock.
https://www.newegg.com/p/N82E16824236993?item=9SIA6ZPAHS1238

The $4-5K is driven in part with the 1000+ nits max brightness and the 500-1000+ local zones.. A laptop or tablet doesn't need the nits. Smaller screens don't need 500 zones. Mini-LEDs are incrementally more expensive but the notion that they are super expensive is a stretch.

If Kuo's rumor is to be believed the number of uber expensive mini-LED's in the 16" screen would far surpass even the $4K+ monitors on the market now. The benefit, local dimming for increased contrast, may not outweigh the asking price. There is zero chance a 16" mini-LED screen with 10K LEDs will be included as a standard option with minimum price increases.

His 10,000 LED quote also came from an article pointing at a 32" 500+ zone iMac ..... which ain't coming either.

https://www.macrumors.com/2019/04/09/apple-to-launch-mini-led-backlit-31-6-inch-imac/

somebody's numbers are off. If the XDR is using 600 micros for 576 zones on a 32 inch screen... I suspect they are trying to cluster the 200 minis back into 600 sized clusters for a scaled amount of zones to hit the 10,000 number. I'm not sure that is necessarily.

 

[827538]

I am really looking forward to the 2020 iPhones as it is sounding like there will be numerous, significant improvements. Is there anything in particular your wife is expecting in Studio 4 headphones? I love my Studio 3 headphones and I really can't think of anything they are lacking. I'm not an audiophile so the current quality of sound is good enough for me (for my use case, I doubt I would even notice if the sound quality was improved). The ANC works well and the battery life is great. Just wondering what she is expecting in the next version.

USB-C/Lightning instead of micro-USB, H1 chip, Bluetooth 5.0, improved battery life, ANC etc. But the main one is the connector, I can't stand micro-USB.

 

[iJustines]

The Mini-Led production cost has decreased competitively to conventional LED and cheaper to produce than OLED. It wouldn't make a lot of sense to increase the product price or intentionally make it expensive that can result in a negative impact on the adoption rate.

 

[rocketman80]

Is mini LED the same thing as micro LED ?

 

[BootLoxes]

Not as good as the A12X though.
Previously linked in A12X article. https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2018/11/apple-walks-ars-through-the-ipad-pros-a12x-system-on-a-chip/ GFXBench Metal 4 offscreen 383 / 201 ( T-Rex / Manhattan )

iPhone 11 benchmarks (with A12 ) same folks. https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/201...ro-max-review-high-quality-for-high-prices/4/ GFXBench Metal 4 offscreen 275 / 139 ( T-Rex / Manhattan )

A12X Sling Shot 3.1 Graphics / Physics 13,224 / 4,686
https://www.anandtech.com/show/13661/the-2018-apple-ipad-pro-11-inch-review/6

A13 Sling Short 3.1 Graphics / Physics 8,677 / 3,527
https://www.anandtech.com/show/14892/the-apple-iphone-11-pro-and-max-review/6


The A13 is better than the A12, but still significantly trailing the A12X in graphics 'horsepower'.


The current Apple TV is limited by 3GB of RAM too ( the iPad Pro now has 4GB and optionally 6GB. New TV could at least get 4GB. ). Pushing 4K HDR screens more memory is probably going to help.




The Fan would help the A12X also and it is already ahead. The A12X also has an advantage in that the CPU die is not stacked on top the RAM inside the chip package. RAM is separate on the board. ( Not only a fan, but can cool the components better because they are spread out more. )

The size isn't going to make much of difference compared to the dongle alternatives it is going to compete with now (nevermind the100% integrated into the TV size reduction). The Apple TV app running on the top two streaming dongle vendors ( Roku and Amazon Fire) that market is pretty much toast for Apple. ( the below cost dumping of those this Black Friday and Cyber Monday, $30 and $25 respectively ... Apple isn't getting anywhere near that slugfest. That why they deployed the Apple TV app there. )

If Apple is going to lean heavily on the gaming differential then they'll need to keep the fan.

I know its not as good as the graphics of the a12x but the a13 might be cheaper and runs cooler which was why i suggested it

 

[Basic75]

"Kuo said the mini-LED displays will "significantly improve productivity and the entertainment experience" without elaborating."

Sure, a change in display backlight technology will significantly improve my productivity, LOL. Call me when micro-LED comes around, that's what everybody is really waiting for. But not for productivity improvements.
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Is mini LED the same thing as micro LED ?

Nope, it's just a multi-zone LED-backlight with more zones than previously, so you can do a more fine-grained local dimming.
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why there's no A11X and A13X???

Apple skipped the A7X and A11X, it seems that with the A7X they felt the A7 was fast enough to make it not necessary, while the A11X was omitted because the iPad Pro is on a slower than yearly refresh cycle so they don't need an "X" version of all of their "A" chips. The A13X might still show up, or they'll skip straight to an A14X for the same reason.
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I am on MacRumors using safari dark mode, I see large portions of the display where it can be turned off. Anyone can estimate potential energy savings from MiniLED?

Since mini-LED still uses zones where many pixels are affected by a single back-light cell I'm really curious to see how bad mini-LED looks at the borders of a non-uniform background brightness. If it looks like **** I don't really care how much energy it could save.

 

[dantroline]

But I just bought the new 16" MBP...!

Don't worry. Something will come up and you can upgrade it in a couple of years once the inevitable class action gets some momentum up.

 

[chucker23n1]

Micro Led is going to be a game changer.

To be clear, this article is about Mini-LED, which is basically just TFT-LCD + LED backlighting as usual, but with smaller (and more) LEDs to improve contrast and reduce energy usage.

Micro-LED is a whole other thing.

 

[Seanm87]

I am not against things getting better, but... displays today already look beautiful. Maybe we should concentrate on another technology?

They do but they also have plenty of flaws. Both LCD and OLED are certainly not perfect.

 

[chucker23n1]

I am not against things getting better, but... displays today already look beautiful. Maybe we should concentrate on another technology?

TFTs still have a contrast problem (mini-LED will help with that, somewhat, but it won't be anywhere near as good as OLED), and OLEDs have a color accuracy problem. On top of that, due to the way TFTs need to be separately backlit, they also draw a lot of energy.

Combine that, and researching better display tech is a good idea.
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why there's no A11X and A13X???

A*Xes get released when a suitable high-end iPad demands them. When the 2017 iPad Pro shipped, the A11 wasn't yet ready, so it got an A10X. And there's no 2019 iPad Pro (yet), so no A13X.

 

[ksec]

So no rumours for 14" MBP?

 

[chucker23n1]

Gettin real fed up waiting for this new iPad ?. Fourth quarter 2019, first quarter 2020, and now fourth quarter 2020?

You do realize the late 2018 iPad Pro is right there, and is plenty fast?

 

[chucker23n1]

Intel roadmaps don't have anything in the 10nm space for the H class ( > 4 core ) CPUs in most of 2020. There is a Comet Lake H that is suppose to bring 10 cores to the same TDP space using 14nm , but that is probably a bit of hand waving for Intel. ( 10th gen has a mix of 10nm and 14nm parts in it).

There is probably not a huge leap between what Apple is shipping now and the Comet Lake versions when still at the 6-8 core range. Not enough for Apple to dramatically cut short this initial MBP 16" run. Apple probably wants to run this initial run about 4 quarters ( unless there is a major problem). If there was a dramatically better AMD solution maybe. But Intel is basically selling a warmed over versions of what the 16" has now.

I suspect Apple is behind the eight ball on WiFi 6 because they are probably dead set on not using Intel's ( for their own reasons). So that too probably isn't short range update cycle. Q3 2020 isn't forever. ( that could be July 2020).

It wouldn't be that unusual to only get an MBP update once a year.

As for Wi-Fi 6, though, I'm guessing the answer is as simple as: Coffee Lake doesn't have it built in, and Comet Lake does, so as soon as the MBP gets upgraded to that, they'll take advantage of that.