Kuo: Apple Vision Pro Unlikely to Receive Major Upgrades Until 2027

[Surf Monkey]

I won't be around for that. But even if I were, jokes aside, the point of the anecdotes is that I don't want a simulated anything.

The thing I like about a keyboard is that it puts distance between me and the tech I'm using... it can only read whatever input I give it.

Part of the reason I'm back here, on a message board, is that I hate the content prioritization and AI systems trying to monetize my every move on social media. I'm tired. Very tired.

I wear a mechanical watch. I cook with my bare hands and pans on open flame. I don't have a Fitbit. I don't use fintech apps... been with the same financial institution for 30 years. I don't even invest in tech companies.

I'm the exact opposite of the perfect candidate for VR. I only work with technology because I have to. I don't like what technocracy is doing to us.

I’m not anti tech on any level but I share some of your preferences. I wear a fine mechanical watch on my wrist and will never replace it with a tech toy. No Fitbit. No desire for a self driving car or a 3D TV or “no click purchasing” or anything else that a dorky face computer can offer. Computing and internet are already too pervasive and invasive. Getting an implant in your BRAIN? Let’s be real. Only a certified idiot would want that. It’s your BRAIN. The most important organ in your body. Unless it’s a life or death situation absolutely NO ONE should be poking around in there and sticking foreign objects in.

 

[Macaholic868]

Everyone who is critical of the AVP is a "hater" or "broke" and feels excluded and is sad ...
Yeah, that's totally it

Or..
What if it's just not a compelling product on a whole bunch of fronts?

Where did I say everyone? The fact that you feel the need to attribute something to me that I never wrote to try and discredit my post tells me all I need to know. Nice try. Better luck next time.

 

[Macaholic868]

Because they’re disabled. Glasses are necessary.

Not true. There are people out there who wear glasses for the look while requiring no actual corrective lenses at all and those who wear sun glasses entirely for the look when the sun isn’t in their face to the point where it’s a problem and they are necessary to wear.

 

[Surf Monkey]

Where did I say everyone? The fact that you feel the need to attribute something to me that I never wrote to try and discredit my post tells me all I need to know. Nice try. Better luck next time.

The argument has been made towards us over and over again by member after member.

Us: this thing doesn’t seem appealing.

Various other members: “You’re just jealous!”

“You can’t afford it!”

“You don’t understand what it is!”

“You just hate it out of blind rage!”

“You’re rooting for Apple to fail!”

“You have no real argument, just insults!”

And my all time favorite:

“You were probably at the January 6th riot!”

So I think you can see how we’re a little tired of it.

 

[Surf Monkey]

Not true. There are people out there who wear glasses for the look while requiring no actual corrective lenses at all and those who wear sun glasses entirely for the look when the sun isn’t in their face to the point where it’s a problem and they are necessary to wear.

Sunglasses have a specific killer application. They protect your eyes from harsh sunlight. Prescription glasses are NEEDED by 67% of the adult population in America. Glasses and contacts are necessary devices that address and solve a disability.

Sure. Some vanishingly small percentage of hipsters and children wear glasses and or sunglasses just for the look. Congratulations. You proved nothing whatsoever.

 

[Beautyspin]

I can feel some of the haters blood boil when they hear stats like that. LOL. The number of people who seem overly invested in seeing the Vision Pro fail is strange to me. My instinct tells me most people don’t have a vested interest one way or the other because it’s a niche product not in their price range at the moment but there’s a very vocal component who really seem to have it in for the device. My best guess is it’s the crowd who feels excluded because they can’t afford one so they feel this incessant, childish need to try and ruin it for those on the fence and those who bought the device because if they can’t have one then it’s obviously worthless and overpriced.

If you see, Kuo has changed jobs and hence he is no longer as accurate with his prediction. In fact, 9to5mac says his prediction of about 1% returns is not believable at all. If people are keeping it, it might be because they know that there will be no 2nd model and theirs might become a collector's item. /s

 

[CarAnalogy]

The big problem is attracting third party developers. The use cases for a "killer app" are so far downstream because the tech itself is simply not where it needs to be for developers to move resources from iPhone to AVP, so they would have to hire more developers which doesn't make sense as long as iPhone sales remain relatively flat (as they have now for seven years).

No developers, no apps. No apps, no users.

If only some tech CEO had danced around on stage screaming “developers” over and over, maybe someone would have got the message.

 

[Avatar74]

I’m not anti tech on any level but I share some of your preferences.

Oh I'm not entirely "anti-tech".. It would be more accurate to say that I am a very late adopter. I still use a physical planner because I find that I remember things better when my brain is engaged in the act of mechanically writing it, even though I can type much faster or I could just dictate it using speech to text.

Some of these things are very old technology... I have lots of shoes. Shoes are old technology. I like things that are going to be around a very long time, and don't require me to give my personal details every time I use them.

Technology is supposed to make our lives easier, and that's where I'm coming from when I ask what AVP can do. Because right now, it can't do anything that improves my life in a tangible way that can't be achieved by other means. I don't care that it may be "cooler"... it's still a lot to ask of me for little to no material benefit in the physical world.

Also, I think the internet is fast becoming a cesspit. That wasn't how we envisioned it. It was supposed to be the decentralization of the information economy... the single greatest threat to tyranny. Now tyrants use it to manipulate large populations with propaganda. And it's now plastered with bots and ads and garbage wall to wall... it's like Idiocracy in digital form. It's impossible to see real conversations on social media that aren't littered with "content" (read: crap). One day, it'll be a wasteland with nothing but bots talking to each other, not realizing they are all bots.

I'm becoming increasingly reminded of that exchange between Cosmo and Bishop in Sneakers:

Cosmo: Don't you know all the places we could go?

Bishop: Yeah, there's nobody there.

 

[cardfan]

If you see, Kuo has changed jobs and hence he is no longer as accurate with his prediction. In fact, 9to5mac says his prediction of about 1% returns is not believable at all. If people are keeping it, it might be because they know that there will be no 2nd model and theirs might become a collector's item. /s

He can have some clue about demand and supply from supply chain contacts. But returns is something else. Apple only.

I can only say that of the people I know who bought one. 5 or so. They all returned which includes me soon.

I expect sales have dropped drastically from the initial curiosity where Apple soon will be offering veterans or educators discounts. There’s also launches in other countries that will move more. But these come with costs as well. Apple was supply limited to begin with.

Reminds me of AirPod max. Sold out at beginning and soon needing fire sale prices to move them.

 

[Avatar74]

If only some tech CEO had danced around on stage screaming “developers” over and over, maybe someone would have got the message.

Or at least an impersonation of that CEO by the guy who voices Bender on Futurama.

 

[Avatar74]

Sunglasses have a specific killer application. They protect your eyes from harsh sunlight. Prescription glasses are NEEDED by 67% of the adult population in America. Glasses and contacts are necessary devices that address and solve a disability.

Sure. Some vanishingly small percentage of hipsters and children wear glasses and or sunglasses just for the look. Congratulations. You proved nothing whatsoever.

And then there's me... I have three prescriptions: Reading, intermediate and distance. And my distance pair are custom prescription sunglasses.

I can't combine these into one pair because I have so many layers of changes, including three different levels of prism... and Zeiss can't do prism for AVP.

Even if they could, I still am not touching VR until I can get it to fit in a pair of MY glasses, not the other way around.

There's another reason, related to my cerebral palsy, as to why I don't like clunky form factors. When I was a kid I wore big, clunky brace shoes. They drew tons of attention to themselves. I was made fun of, bullied at times to the point of near suicide. I can't speak for every disabled person but my goal in life is NOT to draw even more attention to myself.

You've got to make a form factor that looks, feels and behaves like every other pair of glasses, before I touch VR. And no, I don't mean this ugly f'n thing:

I mean this:

...and by "this" I mean any actual, existing eyeglass frame of my choosing... not one flavor fits all. This just happens to be the pair I'm wearing right now.

 

[Surf Monkey]

And then there's me... I have three prescriptions: Reading, intermediate and distance. And my distance pair are custom prescription sunglasses.

I can't combine these into one pair because I have so many layers of changes, including three different levels of prism... and Zeiss can't do prism for AVP.

Even if they could, I still am not touching VR until I can get it to fit in a pair of MY glasses, not the other way around.

There's another reason, related to my cerebral palsy, as to why I don't like clunky form factors. When I was a kid I wore big, clunky brace shoes. They drew tons of attention to themselves. I was made fun of, bullied at times to the point of near suicide. I can't speak for every disabled person but my goal in life is NOT to draw even more attention to myself.

You've got to make a form factor that looks, feels and behaves like every other pair of glasses, before I touch VR. And no, I don't mean this ugly f'n thing:

View attachment 2354490

I mean this:

View attachment 2354489

...and by "this" I mean any actual, existing eyeglass frame of my choosing... not one flavor fits all. This just happens to be the pair I'm wearing right now.

Right. But the tech isn’t there and there’s no indication that it will be in our lifetimes. The Vision system uses a number of technologies that are already at the functional low end of their possible miniaturization. The cameras for example.

 

[Avatar74]

Right. But the tech isn’t there and there’s no indication that it will be in our lifetimes. The Vision system uses a number of technologies that are already at the functional low end of their possible miniaturization. The cameras for example.

Agreed. 100%. I will not be around to see this get to the form factor I would find useful. I accept that.

You'll find that I tend to keep the tracks of what I think will happen and what I want separate. Or put another way, I distinguish between best and favorite. What I like is not necessarily what others want, and vice versa. As an investor, I don't want companies to do what I want... I want them to do what makes money. As a customer, I want what I want. These are different things that a lot of people can't or don't separate.

I learned to separate these things when I was a kid... I started a disc jockeying business in my teens. I learned that my personal tastes in music weren't going to satisfy crowds. So I have for the better part of my life always thought in terms of what the market wants or needs, and kept my personal tastes out of it. My playlist makes me happy, but it doesn't make me money. Some people think that means giving up your personal playlist. That's not the case at all. It just means compartmenting these things into different sides of your life.

 

[Surf Monkey]

Agreed. 100%. I will not be around to see this get to the form factor I would find useful. I accept that.

You'll find that I tend to keep the tracks of what I think will happen and what I want separate. Or put another way, I distinguish between best and favorite. What I like is not necessarily what others want, and vice versa. As an investor, I don't want companies to do what I want... I want them to do what makes money. As a customer, I want what I want. These are different things that a lot of people can't or don't separate.

I learned to separate these things when I was a kid... I started a disc jockeying business in my teens. I learned that my personal tastes in music weren't going to satisfy crowds. So I have for the better part of my life always thought in terms of what the market wants or needs, and kept my personal tastes out of it. My playlist makes me happy, but it doesn't make me money. Some people think that means giving up your personal playlist. That's not the case at all. It just means compartmenting these things into different sides of your life.

PS: I like the original Wayfarer. I have a pair that I wear a lot.

 

[Avatar74]

PS: I like the original Wayfarer. I have a pair that I wear a lot.

I had the black Outdoorsmans back in the day.

For sunglasses currently have a pair of Oliver Peoples frames, but with a custom tinted Trivex lens sort of cobalt blue but only about 50% the opacity of normal sunglasses:

 

[Surf Monkey]

I had the black Outdoorsmans back in the day.

For sunglasses currently have a pair of Oliver Peoples frames, but with a custom tinted Trivex lens sort of cobalt blue but only about 50% the opacity of normal sunglasses:

View attachment 2354528

Very nice!

 

[tobybrut]

I agree with all of you that the tech to get to self-contained glasses is many years away. How many, I don’t know. It’ll require a lot of advances, the biggest being battery tech. Looking at the size of batteries in most VR headsets, including the AVP, it’ll take a major advance in batteries before external battery packs become unnecessary. Then the main chips, like the M2 and the R1, will require something far smaller than their 4nm/5nm process. That, I don’t think is very far away. We can shrink the die sizes quite a bit in the next few years as processes get down below 1nm. In another three years, we’re supposed to go to TSMC’s 2nm process, half the size of the M2. Camera tech has to abide by the laws of physics, so it’ll take a lot of ingenuity to fit cameras as good as the AVP in something as small as glasses.

I would be ok if in the interim Apple would produce a set of glasses with microOLED panels, or maybe microLED panels when they become cheap enough that attaches wirelessly to an item in my pocket using a dedicated high frequency band that is much faster than Bluetooth that can operate efficiently at a range of 2m. Stick the battery and maybe even the CPU (the main computer) in that pocket device that’s no bigger than the AVP’s battery pack and find a way to insert an R1 equivalent in the glasses themselves, leaving the glasses as mostly a receiver and transmitter while the thing in my pocket does the heavy lifting. That would be revolutionary in itself without being fully self-contained in glasses. I don’t think something like this is that far off in the future, probably less than a decade. A fully self-contained version may take much longer.

 

[Avatar74]

Very nice!

I think that's another thing I tend to prefer... custom design instead of mass produced. I realize that's not within everyone's reach but if a company wants to sell a $4000 product they have to do a better job of understanding the people in the market for a $4000 product, and what it is we do and don't want.

 

[Avatar74]

I agree with all of you that the tech to get to self-contained glasses is many years away. How many, I don’t know. It’ll require a lot of advances, the biggest being battery tech. Looking at the size of batteries in most VR headsets, including the AVP, it’ll take a major advance in batteries before external battery packs become unnecessary. Then the main chips, like the M2 and the R1, will require something far smaller than their 4nm/5nm process. That, I don’t think is very far away. We can shrink the die sizes quite a bit in the next few years as processes get down below 1nm. In another three years, we’re supposed to go to TSMC’s 2nm process, half the size of the M2. Camera tech has to abide by the laws of physics, so it’ll take a lot of ingenuity to fit cameras as good as the AVP in something as small as glasses.

On the APU/GPU/CPU and battery fronts, both, we're likely about 50 years away from the tech...

This is my brother's area. He leads the teams that designed, built and deliver the MI300 and EPYC architecture including for Frontier and El Capitan, and are building OpenAI's next gen processors.

That timetable could stretch out farther depending on how much raw materials mining is impacted by climate change and humanitarian concerns... assuming the food supply doesn't collapse in the next century, in which case all of this becomes moot.

 

[tobybrut]

On the APU/GPU/CPU and battery fronts, both, we're likely about 50 years away from the tech...

This is my brother's area. He leads the teams that built the MI300 and EPYC architecture including for Frontier and El Capitan, and are building OpenAI's next gen processors.

That timetable could stretch out farther depending on how much raw materials mining is impacted by climate change and humanitarian concerns... assuming the food supply doesn't collapse in the next century, in which case all of this becomes moot.

I don’t doubt you, but that’s why I think my interim solution may work in the much shorter term. If you keep the battery in an external pack along with the bulk of CPU power that could perhaps solve the problem. I do think that there are solutions possible in the next few years if wireless tethering is permitted. There are already very short range wireless standards that can work today for transmitting high speed data (IIRC, 802.16). By offloading enough into the “battery pack”, they can reduce the power requirements enough on the glasses to make it viable. Today there are a slew of glasses that contain batteries in them that meet their much lower power requirements. The old idea that many people had was to tether the glasses to an iPhone, but that would require components put into an iPhone where space is already limited, along with power. iPhone cannot waste space sticking an R1 and other support chips in it that aren’t used by the iPhone itself, so an external pack dedicated to Vision Air (or whatever) may be better. Rumored Vision Air would use A-series chips rather than M-series.

I do think a version that is acceptable to the masses can happen in the near future (a decade or less), but it won’t be the panacea most people want of a fully self-contained pair of glasses.

On your last paragraph, I’ll leave that to the politicians.

 

[Avatar74]

I don’t doubt you, but that’s why I think my interim solution may work in the much shorter term.

Is this your area of professional expertise or just speculation?

 

[Macaholic868]

Sunglasses have a specific killer application. They protect your eyes from harsh sunlight. Prescription glasses are NEEDED by 67% of the adult population in America. Glasses and contacts are necessary devices that address and solve a disability.

Sure. Some vanishingly small percentage of hipsters and children wear glasses and or sunglasses just for the look. Congratulations. You proved nothing whatsoever.

Try again on the only hipsters and children wearing sunglasses that don’t need them part. You don’t spend much time outside in the summer near the water do you?

 

[Surf Monkey]

Try again on the only hipsters and children wearing sunglasses that don’t need them part. You don’t spend much time outside in the summer near the water do you?

“Outside in the summer.” When the SUN IS BRIGHT AND HARSH. That’s what SUNglasses are for. Your point, whatever it is, completely failed.

 

[Macaholic868]

“Outside in the summer.” When the SUN IS BRIGHT AND HARSH. That’s what SUNglasses are for. Your point, whatever it is, completely failed.

No my point, which is that people do choose to wear items on their face, stands and is backed up by sunglasses and to a lesser extent these days by people who wear non-prescription glasses strictly for the look.

Sun glasses have been used as fashion accessories for decades. While they do help protect your eyes humanity did just fine for thousands of years prior to the first appearance of sunglasses. It’s a fact that sun glasses are worn as fashion accessories.

100 Years Of Fashion: Sunglasses - Glam

Sunglasses have come a long way over the past century. Follow along as we trace the accessory from its early days to today, with all the trends along the way.

www.glam.com

It’s also a fact that a percentage of the population wears non-prescription glasses as fashion accessories.

A Closer Look at Fashion’s Embrace of Optical Glasses

Fashion brands like Miu Miu and celebrities like Bella Hadid and Emily Ratajkowski are embracing optical glasses. See more details on the trend here.

wwd.com

Your point that people don’t choose to wear items on their face is what is completely and totally failed and that you refuse to admit you’re wrong despite clear evidence to the contrary says it all.

Just swallow your pride, admit the fact that some people do choose to wear items on their face as fashion accessories and thus if Apple does eventually get this technology down into a glasses style form factor at a much more affordable price as they are planning when the technology allows for it that there are people who would choose to buy them and wear them in public just like they buy and wear glasses or sun glasses as a fashion accessory in public and move on to other reasons to hate on a future iteration of the Vision Pro. This reason is weak sauce at best.

 

[Surf Monkey]

No my point, which is that people do choose to wear items on their face, stands and is backed up by sunglasses and to a lesser extent these days by people who wear non-prescription glasses strictly for the look.

Sun glasses have been used as fashion accessories for decades. While they do help protect your eyes humanity did just fine for thousands of years prior to the first appearance of sunglasses. It’s a fact that sun glasses are worn as fashion accessories.

100 Years Of Fashion: Sunglasses - Glam

Sunglasses have come a long way over the past century. Follow along as we trace the accessory from its early days to today, with all the trends along the way.

www.glam.com

It’s also a fact that a percentage of the population wears non-prescription glasses as fashion accessories.

A Closer Look at Fashion’s Embrace of Optical Glasses

Fashion brands like Miu Miu and celebrities like Bella Hadid and Emily Ratajkowski are embracing optical glasses. See more details on the trend here.

wwd.com

Your point that people don’t choose to wear items on their face is what is completely and totally failed and that you refuse to admit you’re wrong despite clear evidence to the contrary says it all.

Just swallow your pride, admit the fact that some people do choose to wear items on their face as fashion accessories and thus if Apple does eventually get this technology down into a glasses style form factor at a much more affordable price as they are planning when the technology allows for it that there are people who would choose to buy them and wear them in public just like they buy and wear glasses or sun glasses as a fashion accessory in public and move on to other reasons to hate on the Vision Pro.

It’s a ridiculous non starter of a comparison. Vision is a massive headset without an urgent use case. It’s NOTHING like sunglasses. Equating them is disingenuous. Sunglasses and eyeglasses have an immediate and critical use case. A face computer does not. Glasses and sunglasses are socially acceptable because they’re a necessity. Vision is not.

You’ve proven nothing. There is no evidence that people generally want a computer on their face.

Oh, and next time? Feel free not to include the personal insults.