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Kuo: Apple Vision Pro Unlikely to Receive Major Upgrades Until 2027
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This is a great point, but disagree with your final point. My father used to have a car phone. I remember in the mid-90s taking his phone with me to high school. I think it came in a case. It was massive. The battery was separate. I think I had to keep it in the glove compartment and it was the “emergency phone.” My mother would mock him for lugging it around- “This is why they have pay phones. Quarters were lighter.”
You can draw a direct line to my 15 Pro Max.
Disposable cameras with film you turned in for processing used to be the norm. No one in 1995 predicted I’d be taking pictures were my phone in 15 years, and that the picture quality would be the standard a few years after that.
Many of the comments about how AVP is dead 27 days in remind me of my mother telling me to bring quarters with me because pay phones weren’t going anywhere. 😂
*fixed typo
It makes sense Apple Goggle update would take 2-3 years after the public pilot beta product was released. It takes time to evolve and improve a lot of features needing improvements and to see public in the world reaction. Future computing claim from marketing slogan remains to be seen if working professional masses would accept and be comfortable wearing goggle to perform their work. Keep calm and be happy with Apple Goggle existence and offering as an option for enterprise and business.😊 Life is too short to be unhappy 😊
A lot of people commenting that they suspect it will be dead isn’t the water by then, and I kind of agree.
But more importantly I think, is the fact that by 2027 the competition will catch up to the same level too. They will have very little wiggle room to release an update that isn’t groundbreaking.
But more importantly I think, is the fact that by 2027 the competition will catch up to the same level too. They will have very little wiggle room to release an update that isn’t groundbreaking.
I totally agree that the next major step is to put the contents of a Vision Pro into a pair of glasses. That’s not going to happen anytime soon with today’s technology. We can’t even fit an M2 into a pair of glasses right now, requiring much more miniaturization than is possible with what we can have now. From rumors, Apple was trying to decide between a pair of glasses tethered to an iPhone, a huge headset tethered to a powerful docking station or computer, versus what we have today in Vision Pro. I suspect Apple chose its current path to show what is possible in the future given what we can cobble together today rather than show what’s only possible today with such a small form factor, but compromising on size by taking a middle ground. The first computer was built under the stands of a college football stadium that doesn’t hold a candle to a late 1970’s Atari. That Atari pales in comparison with a smart watch today. Things will only get better and smaller. But it takes time. We’re at the computer under the bleachers part of ”spatial computing”.
I’ve seen glasses that are out now such as the Meta Ray Bans or the RayNeo X2, maybe the coolest of the AR glasses today. They are pretty poor in comparison to what Vision Pro can do, in fact downright pathetic. Most companies are working from a bottom up approach while Apple is working top down. If Apple had put out a pair of glasses on Feb 2 instead of the Vision Pro, it probably would have been met with a collective, ”meh”. We’ve seen that before. What the Vision Pro is, is a proof of concept, not a finished product. I don’t blame anyone who doesn’t want to buy one because of its drawbacks and high price. That’s for us early adopters to test out and to get excited for what we might see in the future. That future probably isn’t far away, probably 2030 or a few years past that when we’ve gone below 1nm processors with enough power to drive a dozen of today’s Vision Pros, but are small enough to fit into a pair of glasses. Don’t be shortsighted just because the current tech isn’t good enough. As the old saying goes, don’t knock it until you’ve tried it.
What’s more exciting, the possibility of Vision Pro in glasses form a few years from now or a pair of glasses that don’t look much different than what everybody else is putting out? It’s the early adopters who get to experience it first and will let Apple know what works and what sucks so that when those pair of glasses come out in 2030 or 2032, we’ll all be wowed. I’ve said it in other threads, but the first company to figure out the future of computing with a device that can replace your computer, smart phone, tablet, and TV will be the company to control computing for the next several decades. Microsoft controlled it from the early 80’s to today with many signs of that weakening as desktop computers get replaced by smaller form factors. Who gets to control it for the next 40 years?
I’ve seen glasses that are out now such as the Meta Ray Bans or the RayNeo X2, maybe the coolest of the AR glasses today. They are pretty poor in comparison to what Vision Pro can do, in fact downright pathetic. Most companies are working from a bottom up approach while Apple is working top down. If Apple had put out a pair of glasses on Feb 2 instead of the Vision Pro, it probably would have been met with a collective, ”meh”. We’ve seen that before. What the Vision Pro is, is a proof of concept, not a finished product. I don’t blame anyone who doesn’t want to buy one because of its drawbacks and high price. That’s for us early adopters to test out and to get excited for what we might see in the future. That future probably isn’t far away, probably 2030 or a few years past that when we’ve gone below 1nm processors with enough power to drive a dozen of today’s Vision Pros, but are small enough to fit into a pair of glasses. Don’t be shortsighted just because the current tech isn’t good enough. As the old saying goes, don’t knock it until you’ve tried it.
What’s more exciting, the possibility of Vision Pro in glasses form a few years from now or a pair of glasses that don’t look much different than what everybody else is putting out? It’s the early adopters who get to experience it first and will let Apple know what works and what sucks so that when those pair of glasses come out in 2030 or 2032, we’ll all be wowed. I’ve said it in other threads, but the first company to figure out the future of computing with a device that can replace your computer, smart phone, tablet, and TV will be the company to control computing for the next several decades. Microsoft controlled it from the early 80’s to today with many signs of that weakening as desktop computers get replaced by smaller form factors. Who gets to control it for the next 40 years?
Yes. Corrective lenses. Imperfect vision is a disability. The most common one humans have. How is this news to you? Glasses are a medical device. People wear them out of necessity.
It isn’t going to be glasses. Not in our lifetimes. Probably not ever.
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but people who like it can also just not read the comments and enjoy their toy. the comments here are directed at apple.
Besides the headache of constantly adjusting a headset to fit different family members (again, why I don't share my eyeglasses), we are talking entirely at cross purposes.
Yes, we are indeed talking at cross purposes.
I'm not a speculator. I know that's probably a weird perspective to have on a forum called "Mac RUMORS" but let's start with the fact that we're all drawn to discussions about a particular company's products.
Some of that discussion inherently involves thinking about Apple's strategic direction. People loved and hated it with Steve just as they love or hate it with Tim. Lots of that conversation is just guessing.
I can probably do a better job of explaining for people when I am talking from the perspective of what has happened, what is likely to happen, versus what I would like to happen.
The first two areas I rely heavily on facts and experience in tech analytics and strategic guidance. The third I am far more abstract about, and always thinking 30-40 years down the road.
Let's tie this back to your point: Shared experiences. Talking about login screens and things like that is in the weeds, and I'm not really thinking about the weeds. I'm thinking about the moonshot use case at a very high level, because that's what I do.
To revisit something I mentioned previously:
In 1996 I wrote my senior college thesis on internet distribution of music. I didn't write it on any specific features or attributes of a device or a service. I was looking for a very big problem to solve: What is the path forward for independent distributors (in the music business) competing for retail space with the Big Six?
Another extrapolation of this question is: How does an independent distributor transcend/bypass the high barriers to entry while improving gross margin, which also impacts the quality of artist development.
My solution was: Click a button to buy entire albums of music over the internet.
That's as specific as the answer got... the details were in the analysis leading up to that recommended solution. The analysis of the industry, the existing distribution models, the key distributors, the numbers. There was no speculation in my analysis about where that would take us.
But here we are. Now I have 30 years of data and just as many years of experience in data analytics to understand how this strategy played out... because it really was the Next Big Thing™.
So where do we go from here? One of the key learnings since my 1996 paper is that Apple did not articulate or solve the problem in terms of features or tech specs... they asked a very simple question which couldn't have been asked at the time I wrote my paper (for a very obvious reason):
How do you compete with free?
The answer:
Make it so idiotically easy and addictive to use, that free is less convenient.
Ok... So let's take this to the AR/VR/MR space:
How do we make this so idiotically easy and addictive to use that reality is less convenient?
My answer: No-click purchasing.
Full stop... that's it. That's the high order bit... that's me telling you as someone who predicted the biggest thing in the last 30 years of Apple's history where they would do well to focus next. Why?
Because whoever solves this problem will eat Amazon for breakfast.
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If “no click purchasing” is the key to Vision then it’s already dead. No one needs no click purchases. The idea is basically corrosive and likely to have horrible negative consequences.
this is a question a demon in some allegory would ask themselves
We seldom choose dystopia. Dystopia chooses us.
My project 30 years ago was about evening the playing field for independent distributors, and if this were 30 years ago, that's how I would have framed the question for AVP.
Nobody thought "How do we completely destroy the artist development model and budgets by way of eliminating the album market." But that is what happened.
Or rather, let's put it another way:
"How do I make MR more attractive to use?" is the same question as "How do I make reality less attractive to use than MR?"
You just don't know that until it's too late.
P.S. The allegory would be Netflix's The Fall of the House of Usher. There's a line in there, by Carla Gugino's character, Verna:
"One of my favorite things about human beings. Starvation, poverty, disease, you could fix all that, just with money. And you don’t."
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Just imagine. Someone wants Apple to replace REALITY for them. At some point fandom goes too far, no?
I can see lots of uses for the AVP in the scientific community.
This is why I've advocating the helmet w/ visor form factor from the start. It would be more comfortable to wear and easier to share.🤗 Not to mention, they could make the battery bigger. The big win is you can customize the look. I'd go for something like this.😉
This is why I've advocating the helmet w/ visor form factor from the start. It would be more comfortable to wear and easier to share.🤗 Not to mention, they could make the battery bigger. The big win is you can customize the look. I'd go for something like this.😉
See my last comment.... this would fit in very well with technocratic ideals.
An Oscar-winning short by Mark Osborne from 20 years ago saw it coming...
Maybe for AR/VR but not the Vision. Vision is a consumer product. It isn’t aimed at industry or academia.
Gawd, I miss that playground death machine in the video.
Kids today will never know the thrill of clinging on for dear life when one of those got up to 500 rpm.😁😁😁 It was the only playground contraption worth playing.
I was no-handing it on my BMX bike once, when the tire started to wobble, then twisted hard and the handlebars punched me in the gut. The bike wheelied and kept moving out from underneath me while my butt functioned like an emergency brake, chewed up by the asphalt.
When I was ten I tripped on a throw rug and my left arm went through a window, the still-framed shards barely missing my brachial artery (but still requiring 50 stitches at the nearest hospital 70 miles away).
When I was 19, I was on a second story patio deck that collapsed, fracturing my L5.
Oh and then there was the time my friend almost blew up my parents' garage, which was full of extremely flammable substances like paint thinner and gasoline.
The best memories can't be simulated.
Thats kind of like saying airliners are more of the same, so the next big thing for personal air travel is a hot air balloon. Sure it's not practical or effective now, but think of the potential.
With that background you are the perfect candidate for a permanent AVP implant and a very good recliner.
Gawd, I miss that playground death machine in the video.
Kids today will never know the thrill of clinging on for dear life when one of those got up to 500 rpm.😁😁😁 It was the only playground contraption worth playing.
The rickety monkey bars that were visibly separating from their concrete footings weren’t good enough for you? I remember rocking that rusty contraption back and forth and absolutely terrifying younger kids.
Well…
Not exactly a blimp, massive airship debuts at Moffett Field in Mountain View
Reviving an early 20th-century ambition, an experimental airship debuted at Moffett Field this month, albeit for only a few minutes before technicians rolled the massive aircraft back inside its cloistered hangar.
www.mv-voice.com
I won't be around for that. But even if I were, jokes aside, the point of the anecdotes is that I don't want a simulated anything.
The thing I like about a keyboard is that it puts distance between me and the tech I'm using... it can only read whatever input I give it.
Part of the reason I'm back here, on a message board, is that I hate the content prioritization and AI systems trying to monetize my every move on social media. I'm tired. Very tired.
I wear a mechanical watch. I cook with my bare hands and pans on open flame. I don't have a Fitbit. I don't use fintech apps... been with the same financial institution for 30 years. I don't even invest in tech companies.
I'm the exact opposite of the perfect candidate for VR. I only work with technology because I have to. I don't like what technocracy is doing to us.