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Kuo: Apple Watch Series 3 Demand Higher Than Expected as iPhone X Anticipation Cannibalizes iPhone 8 Pre-Orders
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Lots of other posts have already explained why people sometimes favor NOT having to have an iPhone with them in certain situations.
Only that not everyone has to pay an extra $10/mo for the LTE version. For example my contract already includes a multi-SIM option. I can convert one of them to an eSim free of charge and without having to pay even 1ct more/mo.
Yes, and I should also mention that the other demographic is people who are about appearances or are wealthy and buy every new thing (though there is some small overlap here between the groups). Let's call them Group B. I've stood in my fair share of Apple lines where I try to talk to the people around me about tech and it's clear that they don't even know what the new iPhone has and they're clearly in Group B, and I'd argue Group B is bigger than we are and only getting bigger. Once us tech geeks and Group B have ordered, things should settle down a bit. What I'm not sure about is how many people are in Group B. It seems like Group B grows larger each year, and the smartphone is becoming more and more of a status symbol. So among Group B buyers, things could get a little crazy if the iPhone X becomes this symbol of popularity and wealth. It's very much the biggest unknown at the moment when it comes to how this thing will be received. I consistently underestimate Group B's willingness to buy things they don't need. Not that I need an iPhone X either, but these people buy them and don't even use half the features—or even care.
I'm surprised nobody else has caught this yet, but the second line of your second paragraph has the best typo/Freudian slip that I've seen in ages.
But I agree with your overall point. Apple is selling more different models of iPhone than ever before. If I were going to spend a small fortune on a phone, I'd go with the top of the line and get the X. If I wanted to save money, I'd go with the 6S or maybe the 7. Last time around, I took the former course of action and bought a then-new 128 GB 6S+ to replace my aging 5. I would have waited until the 7, except Apple was offering a too-good-to-pass-up trade-in deal on my 5. My 6S+ is still perfectly fine, showing no signs of slowing down, so I probably won't upgrade until 2019. Whether I get whatever is top of the line then will depend on what features it has vs. one of the older models.
On the other hand, my adult stepson is buying an iPhone 8. He wants the latest and greatest, but he says he can't afford the X, so the 8 is "good enough" for him.
I also felt the same way. I thought, the entire keynote was full of mistakes and boring. Something you just didn't see at an Apple keynote in the past. But, I guess times are changing.
You understand not everyone upgrades every year right? "Ford puts out new cars every year! How am I supposed to upgrade to the newest model every year?"
Most people are not buying new phones every year.
The apple watches in my area were available for pickup on Friday at 12:01 for like 15 minutes after that every store with hundreds of miles sold out I was lucky enough to snag a Stainless Steel Series 3 silver for 9/22 8am pickup. I also checked other models too just to see.
Sure not everyone but a whole lot. I'd bet most consumers don't have access to corporate or organizational agreements like that. Current consumer offerings don't for sure.
No saying it will, but as yet, who knows. Just because the 8 has seen mediocre appeal, there could be a number of reasons other than everyone waiting for the X, e.g. It's a bit meh...not much on a 7 and to be frank a tired look against its peers, as well as expensive. The X is also very expensive and I am not so sure the causal buyer is going to be mad crazy with uptick in pricing. Then again, if everyone is waiting for the X, then Apple better get their supply chain going because I am not sure folks will have a lot of patience, not withstanding the fact there will be a new raft of models from other manufacturers on the way.
iPhone 8/8+ only existed because of limited OLED screens, and Apple knew they could get away with charging $999+ for a limited edition model because of the lemmings that will buy anything no matter the cost. Next year, with OLED production increased, I see the X replacing the 8 at the $699+ price point and an XL version replacing the plus at the $799+ price point. My biggest fear is that Apple will see all the lemmings who are more than happy to pay $999+ for a phone and refuse to go back down to standard prices.
I ordered the Apple Watch Nike+ Edition and its scheduled for the Oct 5 launch day. (I still think its stupid the Nike+ launches later than the normal edition watch though... only thing different is the band other than software). Anyhow I'm upgrading from the first Apple watch. I debated on upgrading due to the lack of differentiation but I feel like the speed improvement will be pretty noticeable and that Siri will be much more accessible and useful. If I don't like it then I'll just return it.
Additionally, I am going to order the iPhone X next month but I only intend to do so to "trial" the phone. If I don't like it I plan to purchase the 8+ (ONLY because my iPhone 6+ screen is discoloring at the top left corner, the phone itself is slow and battery life certainly doesn't last as long as it first did. I doubt it will hold out another year). I'm pretty sure the X will meet my expectations. I think either phone (8+ or X) will be a pretty major upgrade speed wise. That being said the primary reasons I am looking at the iPhone X are:
* Wireless charging - I hate fiddling with that stupid cord every night and opening that port on the case.
* Smaller form factor w/ roughly same size display - I think this speaks for itself, tired of having such a huge phone in my pocket but I love having the screen to watch videos.
* Face ID - I must be in the minority but I freakin' hate TouchID. Don't get me wrong, vs a pin or password it is WAY better but (i hope) FaceID will blow it out of the water. My hands sweat all the time and it almost never works on the first attempt I have to constantly wipe my thumb/finger off and repeatedly try to get it to work, often I need to enter the passcode anyway. So this is the PRIMARY reason I'm going to buy the X. This is also why i said TRIAL. Because if FaceID isn't nearly instant like they are saying then its a fail, otherwise it will be a MASSIVE improvement for me over TouchID. I really just want to get it in my hands and see how well everything feels and works but I'm not willing to sit around and let everyone else try it for me only to have my order window pushed back by several months after everyone says its great.
I hope that apps implement FaceID support quickly (from TouchID) so that unlocking password manager apps, billing apps, etc will all be nearly automatic since we will be looking at the phone anyway. That will be awesome.
Additionally, I am going to order the iPhone X next month but I only intend to do so to "trial" the phone. If I don't like it I plan to purchase the 8+ (ONLY because my iPhone 6+ screen is discoloring at the top left corner, the phone itself is slow and battery life certainly doesn't last as long as it first did. I doubt it will hold out another year). I'm pretty sure the X will meet my expectations. I think either phone (8+ or X) will be a pretty major upgrade speed wise. That being said the primary reasons I am looking at the iPhone X are:
* Wireless charging - I hate fiddling with that stupid cord every night and opening that port on the case.
* Smaller form factor w/ roughly same size display - I think this speaks for itself, tired of having such a huge phone in my pocket but I love having the screen to watch videos.
* Face ID - I must be in the minority but I freakin' hate TouchID. Don't get me wrong, vs a pin or password it is WAY better but (i hope) FaceID will blow it out of the water. My hands sweat all the time and it almost never works on the first attempt I have to constantly wipe my thumb/finger off and repeatedly try to get it to work, often I need to enter the passcode anyway. So this is the PRIMARY reason I'm going to buy the X. This is also why i said TRIAL. Because if FaceID isn't nearly instant like they are saying then its a fail, otherwise it will be a MASSIVE improvement for me over TouchID. I really just want to get it in my hands and see how well everything feels and works but I'm not willing to sit around and let everyone else try it for me only to have my order window pushed back by several months after everyone says its great.
I hope that apps implement FaceID support quickly (from TouchID) so that unlocking password manager apps, billing apps, etc will all be nearly automatic since we will be looking at the phone anyway. That will be awesome.
Last year (iPhone 7) was the first year that I didn't get a new iPhone. I realize that I represent the smallest possible example of the market so I don't think I am an example of any more than one person. What I mean is that even though most people don't get a new iPhone year, a lot of people do. There are fewer and fewer new smartphone customers to go after every year so repeat customers are an important target group for Apple. Apple is in a cycle where they release a new iPhone every year so it is hugely important to them that the maximum amount of people buy it EVERY year. Just a guess on my part, but I would think that most people are on a two-year iPhone cycle. If the market jumps too high too fast in terms of pricing then those people might go to a three year cycle. I'm a little more old and lame than I was when the iPhone first came out, but I am having a really tough time convincing myself that I need to upgrade my 6S to an 8, or even a 7 for that matter.
I've had a Samsung Galaxy S7 for about a year and it's mostly sitting around unused..... The edgeless design is more bothersome for me. Constantly register touches I don't want. I ordered a 8+ and will give my 7+ to the wife to replace her 6s+. Everybody will be happy
That's not true. I don't know the exact numbers but I believe the X unit estimates are many, many millions more then the 8.
I agree, my 6 is fine though I wait in trepidation for IOS 11 and what that brings in the performance stakes
Wife still loves her 6S and sees no reason to upgrade - doesn't care about wireless charging and water/dust resistance hasn't been an issue for her (knock on wood). Honestly I think the 6S still takes better photos than the 7 in many situations as well.
Exactly this - the iPhone 5C and iPhone SE did just fine over the course of the full life of the phone. No one rushes to buy them, but then 95% of my friends don't really care what phone they have - or they look to buy a model a couple of years old or the cheapest one available at the time.
In a strange way, this means that the iPhone X is not priced high enough, or that it's too cheap in comparison to the 8/8+ (or that the 8/8+ are too expensive in relation to the X).
My anecdotal story: Rocking a 6s that I'd probably be looking to upgrade around this time, although it's still running fine but I like new iPhones. I see the X, I can afford it, and I want it. The 8 would be a nice upgrade for me, and if the X wasn't released, I would probably upgrade to the 8. But the X is coming and I want it. I'm skipping the 8 even though it's a perfectly nice phone.
If there are a lot of people like me, this could be a problem for Apple, as they won't have the capability to produce as many X devices due to supply constraints. I'm sure they know what they are doing though.
My anecdotal story: Rocking a 6s that I'd probably be looking to upgrade around this time, although it's still running fine but I like new iPhones. I see the X, I can afford it, and I want it. The 8 would be a nice upgrade for me, and if the X wasn't released, I would probably upgrade to the 8. But the X is coming and I want it. I'm skipping the 8 even though it's a perfectly nice phone.
If there are a lot of people like me, this could be a problem for Apple, as they won't have the capability to produce as many X devices due to supply constraints. I'm sure they know what they are doing though.
The often accurate Ming-Chi Kuo recently revised it up to 80-90 million units for 2018. That's because he lowered figures for 2017 because of supply constraints. For comparison, the past four quarters on record (at least according to a quick Google search) shows Apple has sold about 215 million iPhone models over that one year period. Calculating in higher sales figures (let's say around 240 million total) only gets the X to around one-third of all sales. It's definitely significant, but I haven't seen anyone respectable saying the iPhone X will outsell the 8. Would be cool if it did!
I’m excited for the iPhone X but dreading the pre-order. I’m gonna bite the bullet and get the 256GB option.
Last year I ordered my iPhone 7 Plus a week or so after they started shipping and it came in a week and a half later. I’m hoping for the same type of luck with this one.
Last year I ordered my iPhone 7 Plus a week or so after they started shipping and it came in a week and a half later. I’m hoping for the same type of luck with this one.