Kuo: Apple Watch Series 4 Pre-Orders Above Expectations, iPhone XS Seeing Lackluster Demand

[Heineken]

Is under 6 years “the distant future”? Because we’re already on the Apple Watch 4 and it only took the iPhone under 10 years of compounding gains to go from an underpowered, battery limited iPhone to a processing powerhouse that is the iPhone X. The Apple Watch just doubled its performance — again. And the battery still lasts a whole day.

I hear you, but it’s not that simple.

 

[FFR]

The changes from X to Xs does not justify to make the purchase.
If they make a SE sized with the same feature, then it is a different story.

In your opinion.
Same thing was said every iPhone launch.
Just go into the iPhone 7 preorder thread and see for yourself.


What’s utterly ridiculous is that if pre orders sell out, same people claim demand is still not there, Apple just did not have enough supply to satisfy demand.

The sad truth is that, if they they make an se sized device with the same feature and price it
700-900 dollars, not many would actually purchase it.

 

[giebe]

Well I still have the 6S and don't see any reason to upgrade. It's still running iOS12 pretty fast and I can't think of any feature from the X & XS which I desperately need in my daily life. Speed is still fine and a lot faster with iOS12, battery is still fine, size is perfect, touchID and headphone jack - don't need a better smartphone camera, as I'm shooting with a real dslr camera anyway. Don't need Animoji. Maybe next year.

 

[FFR]

Shipping dates only slip if Apple doesn’t have sufficient product inventory built up. Last year they had supposedly had trouble with the new FaceID tech, but that problem was solved 10 months and 40 million units ago.

Selling 4:1 XR to XS series is worse than selling 2:1, they want to sell as many high-priced XS products as possible. 4:1 would be for example 80 million XR/10 million XS/10 million XS Max. I’m sure they’d love to sell 1:1 (e.g. 50 million XR/20 million XS/30 million XS Max) but given the attractive price of the XR vs XS I think that’s probably over-optimistic.

After all, the XR is $250-350 cheaper and that’s a big deal, it’ll certainly drive a lot of sales, probably mostly at the expense of XS. The Max, being the largest and best, should have decent demand from those who are less price sensitive.

I suppose the 5.8” model could eventually be discontinued altogether, if demand for the 6.1/6.5 sizes overwhelms/swamps the 5.8. But Apple probably already knows it will sell fine, and by that I mean according to their expectations—not the expectations of analysts.

It’s actually 63 million units of the iPhone X now.

 

[jbizzybeetle]

What we don’t yet know—how many X owners are waiting til end of their first year to buy Xs?

X was in hand Nov ‘17 for some, Dec ‘17 for simfree buyers.

Spouse is waiting til Dec to go from X to XsMax, when he will opt for annual upgrade as an ongoing business expense.

I agree no big reason for most to go from X to Xs, but I did for the 4x4 MIMO antennae enhancement.

 

[FFR]

If they put an edgeless screen on an SE (i.e. not a 4" but a 5.3" screen which would be just about the perfect size) and sell it for 750 like the XR, single camera, no force touch, LCD and could put a cheap fingerprint sensor on the flat frame rather than using expensive FaceID I'd expect sales going through the roof...

You could expect that, but it won’t happen.

There is a small contingent of iPhone se users that use the device because of the size, for everyone else, it was because it was dirt cheap in relation to current Apple prices.

 

[john123]

Yeah stick to supply chain leaks Kuo. As an “analyst” he just makes it up, educated guesses sure but no inside knowledge. There’s no way he could possibly know actual demand, just like he didn’t know prices or names of this year’s iPhones.

This is actually incorrect. There are a number of scientific techniques used by analysts, including market research, that when done well can yield reasonable demand estimates.

Whether he’s using these and in particular quality (versus mediocre) market research, none of us can say. But when you say there’s “no way” he could know...that’s factually incorrect. MR is more than an “educated guess.”

 

[wdwpsu]

I have the X and I’m upgrading to the Xs Max, however if I was to buy the smaller form factor I’d go for the Xr over the Xs.

You realize the Xr is closer to the Xs Max in overall size than the Xs?

 

[oldmacs]

Glad that the Watch 4 is selling well. I think Apple did a great job with it.

 

[[AUT] Thomas]

its just a matter of supply and demand... apple was always going for being exclusive.. with lower prices they lose it.
imo they can charge more and still be ok, there is high demand for the phones

Can't agree on that... judging from the last keynote "they want to serve everyone". And with that phone lineup going back to the 7 at 450 bucks they certainly do, but at the cost of being not so exclusive anymore. The "charging more" part also didn't work out so well. In countries with cheaper monthly plans the X was just too much of a markup (often 350%+ on the monthly costs), let alone an outright sale at >1000€. Frankly, I still barely see any X being used around here.
Last but not least there's limited reason to upgrade. Phones are already blazing fast. Upgrades are more for lifestyle reason and because people want a new gadget. Count me in on the latter...

 

[Substance90]

Apple customers are turning over. Die hard fans are being replaced by a new tranche of customers, which is why Apple is successful. For example my die-hard android extended family has ditched samsung for apple. While you may be noticing the exit, I’m noticing a new customer base.

Question is, are these new die hard fans also going to buy Macbooks and start writing iOS and macOS software like the old generation of die hard fans?

Apple doesn't like to admit that but a huge part of the growth of its ecosystem was due to die-hard hackers and indie programmers. People who several months after the original iPhone launched, already had a hacked together app store (Cydia) which then proved to Apple that there is demand for third party software on the iPhone and thus an official App Store. Don't get me started on the number of UI features that iOS has which were originally community developed tweaks from Cydia.

 

[I7guy]

Question is, are these new die hard fans also going to buy Macbooks and start writing iOS and macOS software like the old generation of die hard fans?

Are you saying die hard fan equates to dev? I cant answer that but since the number of apps in the App Store seem to be growing Apple has a healthy vibrant ecosystem. Of course you can look at it the other way and say the shoe is about to drop.

Apple doesn't like to admit that but a huge part of the growth of its ecosystem was due to die-hard hackers and indie programmers. People who several months after the original iPhone launched, already had a hacked together app store (Cydia) which then proved to Apple that there is demand for third party software on the iPhone and thus an official App Store. Don't get me started on the number of UI features that iOS has which were originally community developed tweaks from Cydia.

Let’s bit forget that iOS enabled the likes of Cydia. And since we’re discussing 2008, the iPhone changes the world back then and that continues even to this day. What Apple admits to or doesn’t is irrelevant, they are a smart company not going anywhere but up.

 

[B4U]

In your opinion.
Same thing was said every iPhone launch.
Just go into the iPhone 7 preorder thread and see for yourself.


What’s utterly ridiculous is that if pre orders sell out, same people claim demand is still not there, Apple just did not have enough supply to satisfy demand.

The sad truth is that, if they they make an se sized device with the same feature and price it
700-900 dollars, not many would actually purchase it.

That is because they overpriced it by that.
[doublepost=1537187599][/doublepost]

Did you create a bot that posts this every time Apple releases an 's' model? Because posts like yours are so predictable and pointless at the same time as yearly upgraders only represent a small minority.

Thanks for the insult.
The 5 to 5s is one of the counter argument already.
[doublepost=1537187632][/doublepost]

The Xr is the new mainstream. It is not the new SE. The 7 serves the budget role now.

It is the size of the 8 plus!

 

[sirwoodland]

Still waiting for an SE 2...

 

[OllyW]

Still waiting for an SE 2...

Could be a long wait.

 

[FFR]

That is because they overpriced it by that.

In your opinion.

iPhone X was laughed, mocked and ridiculed for being overpriced. The market has spoken and it’s not.
We now know Apple sold 63million units in 10 months, totaling 63 billion dollars. Just the iPhone X, just the hardware.

It’s closest competitor the Galaxy s9/s9+/note 9 will only sell 40 million units in its lifetime between them. And no one claimed it was overpriced.

People have been calling Apple and Apple products over priced since the first Apple computer. Doesn’t make it true.

 

[freezelighter]

Well, who needs iPhone Xs with that "exclusive Depth control" we already have on iPhone X with Focos App.

 

[Ramchi]

As a shareholder, I’m happy if the Xs Max is more popular than the Xs. That said, I’m also not surprised. Faster Face ID and a somewhat better camera won’t be enough for most people. But the Max is popular with owners of older Plus models and Series 4 seems to be encouraging upgrades.

I think you are the smartest, buying Apple stocks instead of mobiles... You are indeed prudent with your money.... All the very best

 

[freezelighter]

iPhone 7 ist a new "small" standard?
**** that.
I remember how I got the 7 and after few days returned to SE until X came out.
I got X to test the camera features, but SE remains my favorite iPhone.
SE is unique.
Glad that we get another one in March 2019.

 

[hagjohn]

I have an X, so I'm not seeing a big reason to upgrade to the Xs or Xs Max.Plus I decided after I got the X that I would never pay $1000 for another phone, unless there was a good reason to. Other than a few small options, I'm no seeing a reason to upgrade.

I am tempted by the watch but $399, is a bit pricey for me.

 

[legacyb4]

I think XR will outsell the XS/XS Max combined 2:1. And, the XS Max will outsell the XS. I mean if you’re already spending $1,000-1,350 why not spend the extra $100 for the bigger phone? 8 Plus outsold the 8.

Because it's too big...
[doublepost=1537188469][/doublepost]

don't need a better smartphone camera, as I'm shooting with a real dslr camera anyway. Don't need Animoji. Maybe next year.

I've got plenty of DSLR gear kicking around on my shelf, but I've found with that chasing the smartphone camera upgrade is probably the single best reason to upgrade since it's the camera I always have in my pocket these days.

 

[millar876]

Ive ordered an Xs. I’m currently on a launch day 6+. I didnt want to go Xr because I didn’t want to drop screen resolution and though I’m ok with the size of my 6+ I liked the size of the X being a bit smaller but bigger screen, took me a while to justify the cost to myself. Looking forward to a new phone after 4 years.

 

[blairh]

Still waiting for an SE 2...

Never happening. I believe a smaller XR-like device (5" screen) will come next year though.

 

[JOBS-3:16]

I have the X, and I'm waiting for the Xr. The Xr will have the best battery life overall, and it's not worth an extra $250 to me for OLED and dual camera...and this is coming from a display snob. The Xs Max is too big, in my opinion, unless you carry your phone around in a purse.

 

[hinesmj]

Completely unsurprised by the lack of demand for the iPhone XS. It is a marginal upgrade, not worth spending another 1000.

I'm in agreement here. Just not enough to upgrade. I also wonder if they're hit the ceiling on getting massive amounts of people to buy a phone that can cost up to almost $1500....