Kuo: Apple Watch Series 4 Pre-Orders Above Expectations, iPhone XS Seeing Lackluster Demand

[recoil80]

iPhones are becoming through and through replacements to computers. I for one only use a full on laptop/desktop to game. Everything else I accomplish from my “phone”.

I used to spend a lot more time on a Mac even at home not necessarily to work but just for chilling out and since I've become a father I can't use my Mac anymore and I spend a lot more time on the iPhone. The iPad would be great too, but is set to my wife's accounts so I only use it for browsing, while everything related to social network or mail is on my iPhone.
It is pricey, really expensive, but it's the most important device I use and there is so much difference between it and a device from 2-3 years ago I can justify spending so much on it.
My 2011 iMac is my daily driver and I have a 2016 MBP, I can use a Mac from 6-7 years ago and be fine but not an iPhone, not yet.

 

[Sinfonist]

They say this now and in a few months the Xs and Xs Max will be the best selling iPhones ever.

If that were the case, I'd expect the shipping dates to have slipped more by now. There is still good availability on the Max pre-orders, and the demand would normally flatten fairly quickly. The Xr will almost certainly sell much better than the Xs, partly because of the price and partly because the Xs is too similar to the X. If you wanted the display and didn't care about the price, you would have already bought the X. If you're price sensitive, the Xr is a better bet.

I think XR will outsell the XS/XS Max combined 2:1. And, the XS Max will outsell the XS. I mean if you’re already spending $1,000-1,350 why not spend the extra $100 for the bigger phone? 8 Plus outsold the 8.

If the lacklustre Xs sales are true, it would probably be disappointing if the Xr only sold in a 2:1 ratio. Apple need a major sales success to keep investors happy. I'd be hoping for more like a 4-5:1 ratio to offset the lower prices. I wonder whether this will affect next year's upgrade plans: the Xr line may become their main one (rather than the X/Xs), supported by the Max line as the premium option.

 

[manu chao]

Completely unsurprised by the lack of demand for the iPhone XS. It is a marginal upgrade, not worth spending another 1000.

Because the majority of the top-of-the-line iPhone buyers are yearly upgraders. Sure.

Do we need this discussion every second year? Yearly upgraders probably represent only about 10% of iPhone sales. Meaning only 10% of potential Xs buyers will actually be turned off by the only modest updates compared to the iPhone X. The iPhone Xs is as appealing to iPhone 6s and 7 owners today as the iPhone X was to iPhone 6 and 6s owners last year. The major difference this year is the existence of the iPhone Xr which will suck in a lot of iPhone 6s and 7 owners, plus to lesser degree the Xs Max that will appeal to the iPhone 6s & 7 Plus owners (the X last year appealed to both non-plus and Plus owners).

 

[plexdk]

Here's an interesting data point: my in-law's maid's phone has a bigger screen than an iPhone 7; it's some kind of android clone of the iPhone X (HTC?). She makes the equivalent of around $180 USD/month.

As far as I can tell, she's just using the majors: Skype, Facebook, Viber, YouTube, WhatsApp.

So unless there's some ios-specific app out there that people need, there's no real reason to prefer iOS. For certain markets the cost isn't worth it - at all.

Of course. In the old days when I studied, I also drove around in an old Skoda, which could drive me from a to b, it had heating, rear mirror, stearing wheel and so on.. So yeah, there is really no reason to prefer iOS / iPhone, unless you want some more premium feel, both software and hardware wise

 

[atikalz]

I disagree. The iPhone X was the start of a new super-premium iPhone tier. The iPhone X (and the iPhone XS that supersedes it) is a higher end device than previous Apple flagships. It costs more to make and is priced accordingly. It is not overpriced for what it offers.

Clearly, there is a strong market for a new super-premium iPhone tier. iPhone X sales have proven that.

The iPhone XR is the new mainstream Apple flagship. It is comparable in materials and build to iPhone 6, 6s, 7, and 8 series phones of years past.

Having a premium and a super-premium tier is good for everyone because sales of the super-premium phones help to subsidize the price of the more mainstream iPhone XR. It allows Apple to offer new bleeding edge tech in the mainstream device at a good price.

Yes, this leaves some customers with a little buyer’s envy, but that’s life.

Apples strategy works: Just by super raising the price of the X they introduced a super premium line.
I don't think that a normal smartphone progress in display technique like oled or bezel less design really justifies a new tier and huge price raisings like X.
But statements like yours proof that the brain washing succeded.

 

[manu chao]

The Xr will almost certainly sell much better than the Xs, partly because of the price and partly because the Xs is too similar to the X. If you wanted the display and didn't care about the price, you would have already bought the X. If you're price sensitive, the Xr is a better bet.

There is an assumption in there that (a) only those that don't care about price bought the iPhone X and (b) those that don't care about the price are yearly updaters. I don't think either is true, and certainly not both. And I'm a counter example, I upgraded from an iPhone 6 to a X last year and I've never upgraded yearly.

If the lacklustre Xs sales are true, it would probably be disappointing if the Xr only sold in a 2:1 ratio. Apple need a major sales success to keep investors happy.

Yeah, because if they don't they will ask for Tim Cook's head.

 

[Substance90]

Apple is slowly becoming irrelevant again but people can't see the trees for the forest (aka. all the trillions in stock value). After the last keynote, I'm starting to hear about ditching Apple even from die-hard fans.

 

[manu chao]

The changes from X to Xs does not justify to make the purchase.
If they make a SE sized with the same feature, then it is a different story.

Did you create a bot that posts this every time Apple releases an 's' model? Because posts like yours are so predictable and pointless at the same time as yearly upgraders only represent a small minority.

 

[nfl46]

Yeah, I'm waiting on the XR. I will eventually pick up a Series 4 around Christmas.

 

[I7guy]

Apple is slowly becoming irrelevant again but people can't see the trees for the forest (aka. all the trillions in stock value). After the last keynote, I'm starting to hear about ditching Apple even from die-hard fans.

Apple customers are turning over. Die hard fans are being replaced by a new tranche of customers, which is why Apple is successful. For example my die-hard android extended family has ditched samsung for apple. While you may be noticing the exit, I’m noticing a new customer base.

 

[5232152]

Yeah stick to supply chain leaks Kuo. As an “analyst” he just makes it up, educated guesses sure but no inside knowledge. There’s no way he could possibly know actual demand, just like he didn’t know prices or names of this year’s iPhones.

What is your source?
Or are you just guessing on his guessing?

Bravo.

 

[ipedro]

Possible, but very distant future. The problem with watches is that they are small and that limits battery well as performance.

Is under 6 years “the distant future”? Because we’re already on the Apple Watch 4 and it only took the iPhone under 10 years of compounding gains to go from an underpowered, battery limited iPhone to a processing powerhouse that is the iPhone X. The Apple Watch just doubled its performance — again. And the battery still lasts a whole day.

 

[manu chao]

I’ve also owned every watch. Daughter will get my Series 3, and her Series 2 goes to the good friend who bought my original Apple Watch. I’m going to keep the original. Doubt I would get much money on it, and I’ve always regretted not keeping my original iPhone. Or the iPhone 4... I loved that design!

I know the feeling (I've kept my first Nikon SLR). However, money-wise it would be smart to sell every product as soon as possible and then re-buy a copy once its used price bottoms out. But I guess this doesn't work out quite as well emotionally.

 

[burgman]

"iPhone XS Seeing Lackluster Demand"

Yeah, well, you take out the headphone jack, JACK (no pun intended) the price up, get rid of the bezels and the home button so you have to hold it gingerly by the edges, make it super-easy to break, and WHAT did you EXPECT was going to happen? People lining up around the block to replace still nearly new phones you insisted on saturating the market with by making sure people replaced them every couple years? Good luck with that.

With your analysis why is the Max selling well according to him? Same design more expensive.

 

[manu chao]

Apple made a bad judgment with the XS. Should have released an SE2 to go along with the iWatch4. Lower priced, but modernized smaller form phone, with a "split the difference" watch buy....

They probably would have to sell 5x as many SE2s to make the same profit as they'll make with the Xs.

And what about those that absolutely love the X(s) size, features and product quality? Should they be unable to buy an iPhone X-sized (and featured) up-to-date phone during the next 12 months?

 

[PickUrPoison]

If that were the case, I'd expect the shipping dates to have slipped more by now. There is still good availability on the Max pre-orders, and the demand would normally flatten fairly quickly. The Xr will almost certainly sell much better than the Xs, partly because of the price and partly because the Xs is too similar to the X. If you wanted the display and didn't care about the price, you would have already bought the X. If you're price sensitive, the Xr is a better bet.



If the lacklustre Xs sales are true, it would probably be disappointing if the Xr only sold in a 2:1 ratio. Apple need a major sales success to keep investors happy. I'd be hoping for more like a 4-5:1 ratio to offset the lower prices. I wonder whether this will affect next year's upgrade plans: the Xr line may become their main one (rather than the X/Xs), supported by the Max line as the premium option.

Shipping dates only slip if Apple doesn’t have sufficient product inventory built up. Last year they had supposedly had trouble with the new FaceID tech, but that problem was solved 10 months and 40 million units ago.

Selling 4:1 XR to XS series is worse than selling 2:1, they want to sell as many high-priced XS products as possible. 4:1 would be for example 80 million XR/10 million XS/10 million XS Max. I’m sure they’d love to sell 1:1 (e.g. 50 million XR/20 million XS/30 million XS Max) but given the attractive price of the XR vs XS I think that’s probably over-optimistic.

After all, the XR is $250-350 cheaper and that’s a big deal, it’ll certainly drive a lot of sales, probably mostly at the expense of XS. The Max, being the largest and best, should have decent demand from those who are less price sensitive.

I suppose the 5.8” model could eventually be discontinued altogether, if demand for the 6.1/6.5 sizes overwhelms/swamps the 5.8. But Apple probably already knows it will sell fine, and by that I mean according to their expectations—not the expectations of analysts.

 

[MacGizmo]

I predict the XR will outsell every previous iPhone, and you won't be able to get a blue or red one in a store until around February.

 

[aforty]

I have the X and I’m upgrading to the Xs Max, however if I was to buy the smaller form factor I’d go for the Xr over the Xs.

 

[iSayuSay]

Here's an interesting data point: my in-law's maid's phone has a bigger screen than an iPhone 7; it's some kind of android clone of the iPhone X (HTC?). She makes the equivalent of around $180 USD/month.

As far as I can tell, she's just using the majors: Skype, Facebook, Viber, YouTube, WhatsApp.

So unless there's some ios-specific app out there that people need, there's no real reason to prefer iOS. For certain markets the cost isn't worth it - at all.

Well that’s currency for you. Some countries might not make as much as US of A, but their daily expense adjusting with income.

Now iPhone is a product designed with US market in mind. $999 is expensive but still doable for most middle class families in US. Also see that most of Apple services work well only in States and unavailable in others (Apple Pay, iMessage, Apple Music and even iCloud)

Your sister makes $180/mo? Then no, dont buy new iPhone. Maybe buy an older one if she loves iOS so much, 6s or 7 should makes more sense

 

[Mr. Dee]

Rumors suggest otherwise regarding a new form factor in 2019 and newer features....

New form factor in what sense? I can’t see Apple straying too far from the classic rectangle.

 

[PickUrPoison]

What is your source?
Or are you just guessing on his guessing?

Bravo.

But I’m not trying to pass off my opinion as an expensive paid “research note”, am I lol.

Use logic. Kuo’s sources are in the supply chain. The supply chain doesn’t have any idea how many orders Apple booked. Kuo’s just going by sellout time, which doesn’t factor in inventory or production rates for the various devices. Last year he got the production rates and factory order volume wrong, forecasting cuts when in actuality the X sales were doing great.

If Kuo had sources inside Cupertino, he wouldn’t have gotten the pricing so wrong, and he would have known the names.

 

[galangel]

its just a matter of supply and demand... apple was always going for being exclusive.. with lower prices they lose it.
imo they can charge more and still be ok, there is high demand for the phones

 

[[AUT] Thomas]

How many consumers are willing to be 700 to 900 dollars on an updated 4.0 inch display iPhone?

Not many.

And your right the se did prove demand at its price point, but it will prove otherwise once moved into the iPhone regular price range.

If they put an edgeless screen on an SE (i.e. not a 4" but a 5.3" screen which would be just about the perfect size) and sell it for 750 like the XR, single camera, no force touch, LCD and could put a cheap fingerprint sensor on the flat frame rather than using expensive FaceID I'd expect sales going through the roof...

 

[solarmon]

No surprises. I have the X and don't see a reason to upgrade. More likely to upgrade my series 3 to 4 though.

I have an SE. Looks as if it might be my last iPhone. Also, with the AirPower disaster, add this to Apple’s reputation as a great company: I ordered the iWatch 4 on Friday. Received a Thank You and an order number, you know, Wxxxx... Now the Apple Store says i didn’t order anything? Company in collapse when it cannot even process an order.

I’m reconsidering all this tech crap. I’m retired now — I can afford it — but a simple watch, a simple phone...I think that’s all I need...Good luck Apple fanboys and girls...I’m outta here.

 

[brucewayne]

I would have expected it


Not much incentive to trade to the Xs if you already have an X, it just isn’t a great leap forward. Add to that the late release of the X last year so many would have pay ahead to get to the 12 month trade in. The Watch stole the show - would you rather spend $500 on a massively upgraded watch, or a slightly upgraded phone.


Value consumers with 7s and 8s are likely going to wait for the XR. The Xs Max is the only one with a meaningful upgrade so it makes sense its numbers are higher.