Kuo: Expectation That Apple Intelligence Will Drive iPhone 16 Sales 'May Be Too Optimistic'

[Bruh Bear]

Well, considering that most of the announced features for AI won't be released until around mid-2025, I don't really see AI being a selling point for the iPhone 16. By the time they have their AI fleshed out, you might as well get the iPhone 17 with iOS 19.

Kuo isn't bad about future products, but timelines and supply chain insights are not his strength. Take this with a huge grain of salt.

The idiom is "grain of salt" because the size of the grain is the amount that something should be taken seriously ... that you should remain skeptical. Adding the word huge to this phrase makes less sense.

 

[Royksöpp]

Well duh! If they don’t have Apple intelligence ready to launch with new iPhones then what’s the point?

 

[Realityck]

The launch of Apple Intelligence is generally considered to be the reason for the increase in iPhone 16 orders. However, Apple Intelligence will only be available in Beta for US users in 2H24, and Apple Intelligence Siri only supports English. Regardless of whether Apple Intelligence alone can drive replacement demand (which is another big topic), the expectation that consumers will buy the new iPhone 16 for the Beta version of Apple Intelligence in 2H24 may be too optimistic.

SIRI 2 isn't even arriving until early 2025 in beta, thought to be part of 18.4 which would be January thru March. Any increase demand in 2024 is more attributed to marketing push by Apple and Wireless companies trying to hype features yet to be proven popular/high usage with consumers. Also we have no idea how long AI will be in Beta after its first features arrive this fall. I know they said summer, but all the Apple Intelligence online documents say Fall.
example

* Apple Intelligence will be available in beta on iPhone 15 Pro, iPhone 15 Pro Max, and iPad and Mac with M1 and later, with Siri and device language set to U.S. English, as part of iOS 18, iPadOS 18, and macOS Sequoia this fall.

 

[Zmmyt]

the way apple seems to be implementing AI, I am well up for an upgrade.

EDIT: for a better camera it wouldn't seem sensible, even though I'd enjoy it very much.

 

[ghostface147]

I’ll probably use some of the AI features, but it’s not a for sure reason to upgrade.

 

[ChrisA]

People THINK they do not need ""AI" on their phone because they think AI is ChatGPT. They don't understand what it is, so they think they would not want it.

"AI-done-right" will be nearly invisable and work in the back to make the curent apps more usable. You will be able to search for a photo that you describe as ""Kat's freind, the one who had that brown dog." Today there is no hope that Siri could find a photo from that description, But maybe in 4 or 5 years? People will not even think this is using AI it is just a smarter Photos app.

Same with today's predictive keyboard on the iPhone. How do you think it suggests the words? It uses what they used to all "AI". But now the word "AI" means "chatGPT". the term AI keeps moving to whatever is the current "next big thing"

Back in ther 1970's a computer that can play Chess "advanced AI" but today it is just a game app.

 

[ifxf]

I replaced my phone in Dec, so it will an iphone 18 for me.

 

[tenthousandthings]

The idiom is "grain of salt" because the size of the grain is the amount that something should be taken seriously ... that you should remain skeptical. Adding the word huge to this phrase makes less sense.

No, the idiom is that salt was thought to be an antidote to poison. The “grain” in the idiom is a unit of measure, “grain of salt” = “pinch of salt.” Look it up.

Thanks, though, I didn’t know any of this until reading your comment and thinking, “That can’t be right.” Regardless, the main idea is that salt is an antidote, so it’s okay for @neuropsychguy to say a “huge” amount of it is needed in this case, even though it’s a bit clumsy.

 

[LogicalApex]

People THINK they do not need ""AI" on their phone because they think AI is ChatGPT. They don't understand what it is, so they think they would not want it.

"AI-done-right" will be nearly invisable and work in the back to make the curent apps more usable. You will be able to search for a photo that you describe as ""Kat's freind, the one who had that brown dog." Today there is no hope that Siri could find a photo from that description, But maybe in 4 or 5 years? People will not even think this is using AI it is just a smarter Photos app.

Same with today's predictive keyboard on the iPhone. How do you think it suggests the words? It uses what they used to all "AI". But now the word "AI" means "chatGPT". the term AI keeps moving to whatever is the current "next big thing"

Back in ther 1970's a computer that can play Chess "advanced AI" but today it is just a game app.

That's going to prove to be Apple's biggest challenge with "AI". Proving to people that it:

1. Has tangible value.
2. It can deliver on its marketed features.
3. It delivers enough to warrant a device upgrade to obtain.

That won't be an easy task.

Imagine talking to an average user and telling them "Siri will be really cool on the iPhone 16 now". They'd yawn and tell you Siri is hot garbage and can't even turn on their Apple TV or stop calling their boss from 3 jobs ago when they try to call their spouse.

Apple has been marketing "AI" focused features for a while now via Machine Learning powered features like the new autocorrect launched in iOS 17, for instance, and everyone is still convinced autocorrect is a hot pile of garbage. Somehow it uses ML to learn how you use words and what you're typing and it still regressed to be worse than before? How's that possible?

Apple's track record with its "AI" features leave a lot to be desired and I think they'll need to overcome that stigma before they'll see a meaningful bump as a result outside of the hardcore Apple and tech enthusiast crowds.

 

[anthony13]

AI is so fake.

 

[thebart]

People just want to remove people and things from photos, Siri that works like advertised, and maybe have reliable dictation.

(Though I never see anybody actually use Siri. I think it's a meme thing and tech geek thing.)

 

[rp2011]

Yep. People don't care. Especially when there are apps available. That's why it was so silly people talking about how Apple was behind on AI. It's always been foolish for anyone to say that. It's all new and it will take time to sort out properly. The last thing you want is AI telling you to eat rocks or screwing with your iPhone. The best we can hope for is for Apple to take their time like they have been. No one is eager for a worse experience on their devices. The most important thing when it comes to AI is consumer safety. Mitigating AI headaches.

 

[ILoveCalvinCool]

Yep. People don't care. Especially when there are apps available. That's why it was so silly people talking about how Apple was behind on AI.

I'm an AI developer. All day I'm building incredibly cool stuff using tech from Meta and Google. I'm not using any Apple tech other than the Macs I'm developing on, and they are embarrassingly underpowered in AI terms compared to what I could get in a PC. It's not at all silly how badly Apple is behind. It's incredibly disappointing. There's a real chance I'll have to give up on using Macs because of it.

 

[Sippincider]

That's going to prove to be Apple's biggest challenge with "AI". Proving to people that it:

1. Has tangible value.
2. It can deliver on its marketed features.
3. It delivers enough to warrant a device upgrade to obtain.

That won't be an easy task.

Esp. when the end result brings Siri to where it should've been a decade ago.

 

[rp2011]

I'm an AI developer. All day I'm building incredibly cool stuff using tech from Meta and Google. I'm not using any Apple tech other than the Macs I'm developing on, and they are embarrassingly underpowered in AI terms compared to what I could get in a PC. It's not at all silly how badly Apple is behind. It's incredibly disappointing. There's a real chance I'll have to give up on using Macs because of it.

Tell me about all the Windows machines with an NPU. I know all Macs since the M1 have had them. The new Qualcomm machines are the first Windows machines with an NPU. Or are you just talking about Windows machines with Nvidia cards?

 

[ILoveCalvinCool]

Tell me about all the Windows machines with an NPU. I know all Macs since the M1 have had them. The new Qualcomm machines are the first Windows machines with an NPU. Or are you just talking about Windows machines with Nvidia cards?

I'm referring to LLMs from Meta and Google. I'm doing most of my work with those. Apple has absolutely nothing to offer in that arena. I mean that - nothing. There's no option from Apple at all. That's bad and should embarrass every single decision-maker at Apple. They have failed badly. The "Apple Intelligence" pivot is genuinely sad, considering how ill-equipped they are to offer that type of product.

 

[ProbablyDylan]

I'm an AI developer. All day I'm building incredibly cool stuff using tech from Meta and Google. I'm not using any Apple tech other than the Macs I'm developing on, and they are embarrassingly underpowered in AI terms compared to what I could get in a PC. It's not at all silly how badly Apple is behind. It's incredibly disappointing. There's a real chance I'll have to give up on using Macs because of it.

I wonder what the power draw is on the machine you're running these on, unless you're doing everything on their respective servers?

 

[ILoveCalvinCool]

I wonder what the power draw is on the machine you're running these on, unless you're doing everything on their respective servers?

I run LLMs and Stable Diffusion locally. My M2 Pro mini w/ 32GB RAM quickly maxes out under those conditions, with the RAM being the biggest bottleneck because it limits the size of the models I can load directly into memory.

 

[rp2011]

I'm referring to LLMs from Meta and Google. I'm doing most of my work with those. Apple has absolutely nothing to offer in that arena. I mean that - nothing. There's no option from Apple at all. That's bad and should embarrass every single decision-maker at Apple. They have failed badly. The "Apple Intelligence" pivot is genuinely sad, considering how ill-equipped they are to offer that type of product.

Oh ok software. LLMs are great and all but not ready for prime time. it's all open source and available for anyone to try out. No doubt there will be a lot of great things coming down the pike. Until then, it's still early on and nor ready on the consumer level.

 

[Dark_Omen]

Everyone I know just wants to get the newest iPhone, most of them don't even know Apple Intelligence exists.

Why do people want the 16?

There's nothing useful coming out. For the first time in about a decade, I'm considering switching to the S24 Ultra/ a Samsung device.

1. AI already exists on the Ultra
2. Screen is bigger
3. Same titanium build
4. Camera is better
5. Comes with a stylus built in
6. Comes with more RAM
7. Battery life is better than the 15 pro max.
8. RCS will be cross platform between Android/iOS in the fall anyways
9. Screen looks much better than any iPhone screen.
10. Same USB-C charger

 

[Downhilltenago]

I think it will. Funny to me the media and consumers love to play the apple is behind cards but when they offer a capability that is driving phones right now people are against it. Sometimes apple can’t win no matter what they do.

 

[ILoveCalvinCool]

Oh ok software. LLMs are great and all but not ready for prime time. it's all open source and available for anyone to try out. No doubt there will be a lot of great things coming down the pike. Until then, it's still early on and nor ready on the consumer level.

You could not be more wrong. Statements like "it's all open source and available for anyone to try out" betray a very undeveloped understanding of the space. Let's get into some specifics though, I do AI dev all day and so I'm happy to engage with detail rather than generalities.

 

[ProbablyDylan]

Why do people want the 16?

It's the new iPhone.

 

[Marty80]

I am passing I hate AI, why should I listen to a computer rambling on. I prefer to listen to myself as I know what I am saying.

Bring on either the 17 pro max or 18 pro max with triple 48 pixel lenses, 12 gb of ram, a anti reflective screen, design overhaul and I will put my iPhone 12 Pro Max to rest.

 

[kalsta]

1997…”I don’t know anyone who cares about the internet””I’ll never use it for anything”

2007…”I don’t know anybody who’s going to purchase a $500-$600 iPhone” “no one needs this for a phone!”

Yeah, spot on. I have to say, I'm surprised at the general tone in this thread. I thought MR readers might be a little less dismissive of AI and realise how incredibly disruptive it's going to be, especially as we've just been talking about how prophetic Steve Jobs was.

AI is going to be everywhere and change everything, in a similar way to other revolutions (industrial, Internet/information). While it might not seem like a huge selling point for you right now, if Apple didn't lift its game here, its absence would soon become a deterrent to sales.

And just like those other revolutions, it's going to come with good and bad for humanity. I already get a lot of value from ChatGPT, but I'm also very concerned about AI's impact on human jobs, in particular the creative industries which are already feeling it. People have for many decades predicted shorter working weeks and greater wealth as machines take over the mundane jobs people don't want to do. But look what's happening—people are still cleaning the toilets while the machines are starting to do all the fun stuff! Who's serving who? My prediction is that, like always, it's the wealthy few who will get even wealthier from AI tech, while the great masses will struggle more as machines take their jobs away. 😕