The 3 year old Qualcomm X16 is still in many ways better than even the latest Intel Modem. And it certainly support Dual Sim.
The modem price would certainly have dropped since the iPhone 8 era, not to mention it is the IPR price that matters. Difference features set will have different pricing, and we dont know how is that going to work under the new Qualcomm deal.
And eSim has nothing to do with Modem. You can use eSIM with Qualcomm X16. ( That is assuming Apple put Dual Sim features into iPhone SE 2, I do hope that is the case )
Intel doesn't really earn much money from selling modem, it any at all. Their Fab capacity could be much better used for selling everything else which they are severely constrained at the moment.
Qualcomm’s spec sheet for the X16 indicates it only supports LTE+2G as a dual-SIM feature. That’s not dual-SIM as we know it.
The absence of true dual-SIM eliminates X16 as a potential modem candidate.
The lack of LTE+LTE dual-SIM in turn makes eSIM not viable.