Kuo: iPhone XR Pre-Order Demand Over First Weekend Exceeded That of iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus

[MacRumors]

iPhone XR pre-order demand in the first three days of the device's availability was "better than that" of the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus during the same period last year, according to Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

In a research note obtained by MacRumors, Kuo said that although pre-order demand immediately after launch has been lower for the iPhone XR versus the flagship iPhone XS models, overall iPhone XR shipment momentum is "more stable" because it will drive more customers to upgrade than the iPhone 8 series over time.

Kuo added that iPhone XR shipping estimates on Apple.com (many models remain available for launch day delivery on Friday) do not indicate exact demand, as the type of customers interested in the device are more general users, with many ordering through carriers to take advantage of promotions.

An excerpt from Kuo's research note with TF International Securities:

We are not surprised that XR's initial delivery times are shorter than those of the iPhone XS series after pre-order open given that XS and XR have different target customers. The former's target customers are Apple fans, who snap up new models rapidly after the pre-order open. The latter's are general users who are used to operating iOS with characteristics including favoring the Apple brand, limited budget, or no urgent replacement demand.

Some other analysts had expressed concerns that the iPhone XR's strong availability implied weak sales of the $749 handset.

Kuo already predicted that iPhone XR demand would be higher than that for the iPhone 8 series last year in a research note shared last week. He also increased his iPhone XR shipment forecast to 36 to 38 million units in the fourth quarter of 2018, up 10 percent from his original estimate of 33 to 35 million units.

Article Link: Kuo: iPhone XR Pre-Order Demand Over First Weekend Exceeded That of iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus

 

[tromboneaholic]

I'm happy with my X, but that black one does look nice though.

 

[travelsheep]

Wow, people like to buy reasonably priced iPhones, who would have guessed ?


p.s. if it had OLED, same price, I would go for a fancy yellow one. Even though it does not have fingerprint sensor and no headphone jack. But lacking three things, I need to pass.

 

[Lobwedgephil]

He is right, people who pre-order are not the main buyers if the XR. This phone will be the main seller for the average user, the enthusiasts are the ones who pre-order.

 

[kstotlani]

Apple must have done a good job with the supply chain as every colour and size is available even now.

 

[Baymowe335]

I am not surprised, but I'll also say the demand will be more sustainable as XR buyers look at the phones in the store. XR buyers are not as big of Apple enthusiasts as XS buyers, so from that perspective, it's not surprising the ship times have not slipped more.

I also think Apple ramped the heck out of production because they had an additional month to do so.

 

[DNichter]

Not surprising, the low cost is the main driver. Majority of the features, plus new design/colors, at a lower cost - easy sell.

 

[code-m]

Kuo added that iPhone XR shipping estimates on Apple.com (many models remain available for launch day delivery on Friday) do not indicate exact demand, as the type of customers interested in the device are more general users, with many ordering through carriers to take advantage of promotions.

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So the general customer the Xr is geared towards as “affordable” prefer subsidies and promos offered by the carriers. Does that make this device affordable if these marketing strategies are required.

​

By this logic an Xs/Max with subsidies and promos from the carriers can be considered “affordable”.

​

Without these promos and subsidies would the Xr sell well at all.

 

[Baymowe335]

Wow, people like to buy reasonably priced iPhones, who would have guessed ?


p.s. if it had OLED, same price, I would go for a fancy yellow one. Even though it does not have fingerprint sensor and no headphone jack. But lacking three things, I need to pass.

People like to buy $1,000 phones too. Not like Apple didn't knock it out the park the the X and the XS Max is going gangbusters according to all reports.

Apple got this right. People will buy both. A lot of them.

We'll see how many February 1.

 

[DrJohnnyN]

Not surprising considering the 8 and 8+ were a marginal update, and the Xr is a radical redesign of the low-end iPhone.

 

[Blackstick]

It's a great phone for the price, no one can disagree there.

 

[Glideslope]

No surprise. 55-60% of total iPhone sales by Q4. Smart lineup moves by Apple for once. Going to destroy XS numbers.

 

[TallManNY]

Not surprising, the low cost is the main driver. Majority of the features, plus new design/colors, at a lower cost - easy sell.

And it will sell even easier once in the stores. It will look good, it will be new, and the sales person will point out the better battery life.

 

[Tozovac]

Wow, people like to buy reasonably priced iPhones, who would have guessed ?

Not surprising, the low cost is the main driver. Majority of the features, plus new design/colors, at a lower cost - easy sell.

I earn a wage I consider to be robust enough to be able to support buying an Iphone now and then (engineer for 25 years), but anything over $500 for a phone that's likely to require replacement every ~3 years does not seem like "low cost" to me!

Good God, is $750 before Apple Care really considered "low cost" to the admittedly Apple-fanatics (of which I still consider myself one) around these parts?

I’m not calling $750 to be too much or non-justifiable. I can hardly see it be called “low cost” or “reasonably priced.”

What, did the (no longer available) $379 iPhone SE and (currently available) refurbished iPhone 7 for $379 seem like giveaways??

 

[AngerDanger]

Many probably see it as last year's iPhone X for $250 less, and Apple's profit margins are probably similar, given the lack of OLED, 3D Touch, dual-cameras, and steel chassis. Win-win.

 

[DNichter]

I earn a wage I consider to be rather robust to be able to support buying an Iphone now and then (engineer for 25 years), but anything over $500 for a phone that's likely to require replacement every ~3 years does not seem like "low cost" to me!

Good God, is $750 before Apple Care really considered "low cost" to the admittedly Apple-fanatics around these parts?

Compared to the X/XS/XS Max, the XR is a much more affordable option. If you don't want to spend that much on a phone, of course you have that right. The same can be said about anyone who wants to spend that much on a phone, they have every right to do so.

 

[Aluminum213]

Apple must have done a good job with the supply chain as every colour and size is available even now.

Which means demand was low

 

[code-m]

Not surprising, the low cost is the main driver. Majority of the features, plus new design/colors, at a lower cost - easy sell.

Though I love the colour options, one has to read between the lines. When the SE was released it sold well, TMK with carrier promos and subsidies during launch week.

This comparison is between the 8/Plus last years pre-order weekend compared to Xr. Were the carrier subsidies and promos offered at deep discounts, not sure would be great to see a comparison.

People forget that if one is the average customer these devices are not affordable and their tend to hold onto their devices longer, the ones upgrading are the 6/S crowd or option two is replace the battery on their present device. I am curious how many Android users have or will convert due to the Xr.

Too soon to say really.

 

[DNichter]

And it will sell even easier once in the stores. It will look good, it will be new, and the sales person will point out the better battery life.

Yea it should be an easy sell for most. Battery life isn't (yet) a driver for me, but makes sense for some.

 

[5105973]

This phone will probably get more interest once it’s on display in the stores. One of its big selling points is color, and many people will want to see that in person before purchasing.

I didn’t worry about that too much because Apple Store lighting is so different from the lighting I actually live in.

For example I’m a bit shocked how brown/bronze my gold series 4 Apple Watch looks daily. It looked more gold in the store.

 

[code-m]

Which means demand was low

After so many years where Apple could not figure the supply:demand ratio, their have finally nailed it. Or demand is not what was expected. Do carriers receive equal stock to the Apple Store.

 

[DNichter]

Though I love the colour options, one has to read between the lines. When the SE was released it sold well, TMK with carrier promos and subsidies during launch week.

This comparison is between the 8/Plus last years pre-order weekend compared to Xr. Were the carrier subsidies and promos offered at deep discounts, not sure would be great to see a comparison.

People forget that if one is the average customer these devices are not affordable and their tend to hold onto their devices longer, the ones upgrading are the 6/S crowd or option two is replace the battery on their present device. I am curious how many Android users have or will convert due to the Xr.

Too soon to say really.

Yea, obviously we don't have exact sales numbers, but I am sure Apple will be happy with how all of their phones this year sell. The XR is a big step up form the 8 so I would expect better numbers, but we'll see.

 

[Tozovac]

Compared to the X/XS/XS Max, the XR is a much more affordable option. If you don't want to spend that much on a phone, of course you have that right. The same can be said about anyone who wants to spend that much on a phone, they have every right to do so.

That's not answering my question. That's as useful as saying someone who wishes to spend $100k on a diamond-encrusted phone handed to them by Eddie Van Halen has every right to do so.

If you read the responses I quoted, they call it a "low cost option."

I'm curious how many consider $750 to be "low cost" or "reasonably priced," regardless of the XS or XS-max's price.

 

[tromboneaholic]

I earn a wage I consider to be rather robust to be able to support buying an Iphone now and then (engineer for 25 years), but anything over $500 for a phone that's likely to require replacement every ~3 years does not seem like "low cost" to me!

Are you factoring resale value into your calculation of cost of ownership?

 

[DNichter]

That's not answering my question. That's as useful as saying someone who wishes to spend $100k on a diamond-encrusted phone handed to them by Eddie Van Halen has every right to do so.

If you read the responses I quoted, they call it a "low cost option."

I'm curious how many consider $750 to be "low cost" or "reasonably priced," regardless of the XS or XS-max's price.

Well we don't live in a vacuum, so we have to look at the overall smartphone market when looking at costs. Right now, this is a lower cost option for Apple. I would think that since Apple has been selling phones for years at $750, many would consider it a reasonably priced option, and even a low cost option compared to other premium phones being offered by Apple and the competition.