List: MR Members Waiting To Buy A New MacBook Pro

[Encephalon7]

Here are the facts we know so far:
-It’s been over 8 months since the last major update of the Macbook Pro line (4 months if you count the November speed/storage bump)
-Recently there was a shortage of Macbook Pros in Apple Stores and major retailers (like Best Buy)
-The major PC laptop companies have started to ship out Penryn-based 45nm processors
-Apple’s stocks have been going downhill since January
-Every Tuesday after Macworld 2008 proved to release a new product (Macbook Air the only exception: started shipping on a Wednesday)
-iPhone SDK is slated to be released by the end of February
-The following Apple products have been release, updated, or had a price drop since the announcement from Intel of Penryn-based processors (6 Jan 2008)
-Mac Pro
-iPhone
-Apeture
-AppleTV
-Macbook Air
-iPod Touch
-iPod Shuffle
-Xserve
-iPod nano (pink model added)
-Xsan 2

This leaves the following products to be updated:
-Macbook Pro
-iPod Classic
-Mac Mini
-iMac
-MacBook
-Apple Cinema Displays
-iPhone SDK
-Various Software
-Various price cuts

Here are the unconfirmed rumors:
-A media event is scheduled to take place on 26 Feb 2008
-17/18 March 2008 and all Tuesdays before that are projected to be potential release dates for the Macbook Pro (so 4th, 11th, and 18th)
-Apple could possibly skip Penryn altogether and focus on Montevina.
-Apple was originally planning to release the Macbook Pro during Macworld 2008, but for unknown reasons (production problems, short supply, etc) it was never released

Here are some of my own hypotheses of what could be going on:
-The recent shortage of Santa Rosa Macbook Pros could be in part on a shift in production focus towards the “impending” Macbook Pro with Penryn-based chips. But since they’re in stock now, why would this even matter? Perhaps a price cut on the older model while the new Macbook Pros take the price of the current models.
-It has been almost 2 full months since the release of Penryn-based processors (since 6 Jan 2008) and now they are starting to ship out from other major laptop manufacturers (Dell, Sony, etc). If Apple does decide to perform another update, it would definitely be soon. It is unlikely for them to bypass the new processors due its efficiency and to have a 3-8 month machine on the market at its current price. If they do decide to bypass Penryn, then probably the next update we see from the Macbook Pro would be a price cut.
-Since the release of the Macbook Air, perhaps Apple was slow to become more dedicated towards acquiring new Penryn chips and focus resources on the Macbook Air. As a result, all other companies were able to obtain Penryn processors before Apple, thereby causing a potential delay in acquiring and manufacturing the chips into the Macbook Pro.
-From the compiled list above, you can see what Apple could potentially release the following Tuesdays. Therefore it is truly hard to speculate the exact Macbook Pro release date since there are other things that can be released as well.
-A media event is always possible anytime next week. Even though no invitations are publicly released, perhaps the invitations sent out came with a non-disclosure agreement to not release any dates until after the event. An example of this was the recent Linkin Park iTunes session. From the 200 fans and the staff that worked during the session, no information was released prior, save for Linkin Park hinting of the event. Also, the same company that does all the media coverage for Apple Events could just be recording iTunes sessions (https://www.macrumors.com/2008/02/07/apple-event-in-last-week-of-february/)
-Could an iPhone SDK and Macbook Pro be released on the same day? Perhaps… It could be marketed as: “What better way to develop iPhone software than on a new system?” Then again, another part of marketing would be to release them separately in order for higher capital gains.
-This one does seem to make sense (not formulated by me): a March release would do wonders for Apple’s falling stock. How so? Say if the Macbook Pro is released in March, which coincides with March Madness (College Basketball playoffs in the US), then the amount of potential buyers is immeasurable. College students watching the playoffs and seeing an ad for a new Macbook Pro or any other Apple product could equate to large capital gains.

As for me, I’m waiting till the 26th to see what happens. If there’s not at least a date given for the next Macbook Pro (though preferably a Macbook Pro release would be nice that day as well), then I’m 80% sure I’ll get the current Macbook Pro with everything maxed ($4500 budget to spend). The other 20% is towards a Sony Vaio AR series configured-to-order with everything maxed, which is sad since it is the same price as the current Macbook Pro but has the 45nm processor and Blu-Ray. A new laptop for me would be nice since my 5 year old Dell has been through 10 formats, and now has a severe heart attack if I try to open more than 2 applications at once. Although I like getting the most bang for my buck, I’d like to learn about OS X and Macs in general, and the top of the line Macbook Pro should do everything I need (video encoding, playing old games, media machine, etc).

In closing, you really have to commend Apple’s secretive game plan. In their business, any leaks could cost legal action and someone’s job (as opposed to mine, where leaks can lead to jail time or possibly treason charges). But since Mr. Jobs said this would be the year of many announcements, a secretive game plan would best fit their business strategy. Thanks for bearing this long (and first) post of mine.

Sources:
http://www.apple.com/pr/
http://www.rhythmac.com/history
https://buyersguide.macrumors.com//
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Core_2#Penryn

 

[tonyshucraft]

I lied when voting. I just ordered my second MBP ever.

also is it me or could MBP be easily recognized as MVP?

 

[McGiord]

Why Penryn? Why couldn't it be another new undisclosed processor? Couldn't this be the reason why there isn't a new MBP released yet?
________
how to steam rice

 

[bollweevil]

Apple stock is hurting

I am extremely unqualified as a financial analyst, but I would like to point out that Apple's stock has dropped 39.7% since New Years. The NASDAQ has only dropped 13% in that time, some technology and computer companies have broken even, and the runner-up for biggest stock price drop in a large computer company that I bothered to look up was Intel, with a drop of 25.66%.

This is disappointing, because I like Apple and Intel. Microsoft, Dell, HP, and IBM stocks did not lose as much value as Apple or Intel, though Microsoft was a close third, with a 22% drop.

Refreshing the MacBook Pro would probably help Apple's stock, because laptops have a huge market share. See, I tied it in to this thread's topic.

I visited an Apple store yesterday, and they said they had a very large inventory of Santa Rosa MacBook Pros. The inventory size had not changed recently, in either direction, remaining large.

 

[skiffx]

Encephalon7, excellent summary not to mention an incredible first post
Id like to also point out some products, as according to macrumors, like mini and macbooks are in mid cycle, so there is no immediate update necessary unlike with mbpro which is pretty much at the end of product cycle and is alone in that category which only points that update is imminent.

 

[rezonat0r]

Some people in this thread were waiting on replacement MBPs and had ship dates showing around the 26th. If any of you are still alive and reading this, how's that ship date looking right now?

 

[esvee]

Why Penryn? Why couldn't it be another new undisclosed processor? Couldn't this be the reason why there isn't a new MBP released yet?

Because there is no such thing as an "undisclosed processor". For various reasons, Intel's planned architectures for years to come are always published well ahead of time.

 

[ShoopaMac]

Wow, looks like we may not see the MBPs until next month.

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/08/02/21/apple_mbp_leak_7_6_1_.html

rats!!!
and I even visited AI before coming into this thread!!!

 

[ShoopaMac]

When it finally comes out

I will be disappointed then!
It'd be like a long planned vacation. awesome until you get on the plane... but soon after, you start thinking about returning to work...

I'm just in it for the chase!
nikcuf

 

[ruinfx]

the rumored SDK delay has raised my spirits. i was really beginning to think apple was going to announce the SDK on the 26th as their tuesday update and we would go another week without an update. however now they can take some heat away from missing their end of february deadline for the SDK by announcing the new MBPs.

one can only hope.

 

[tanjacob]

There will be a local IT/PC fair coming up in March. Apple resellers won't knock the price or have any education discounts, but there most likely would be promotions like free RAM upgrades, Ipods, etc. with every purchase. If Apple doesn't refresh the MBP by then I'd get mine at the fair.

 

[iMack007]

Some people in this thread were waiting on replacement MBPs and had ship dates showing around the 26th. If any of you are still alive and reading this, how's that ship date looking right now?

Well I had a BTO MBP 17th, and now it says prepared for shipment, but it wont ship till monday...or possibly tuesday?

It shows a ship date of no later then the 25th.

 

[rezonat0r]

It shows a ship date of no later then the 25th.

Thanks! Well, with the new rumor about the 1-3 week SDK delay, my hopes are certainly high for a MBP update this Tuesday.

 

[ShoopaMac]

Some people in this thread were waiting on replacement MBPs and had ship dates showing around the 26th. If any of you are still alive and reading this, how's that ship date looking right now?

just quoting you- not directed to you

I have been pretty quiet so far about it ~for some~ time now~ (w/ agent Smith tone)

But I must rant, waiting? where are they buying these MBP's from? what site? apple store? Stop pulling our chains... it's within 24 hr shipping window and has been for awhile now. Perhaps they are beefing it up, getting speical upgrades or some'n, special circumstances... Apple has also cut back on PO's, naturally, it's after peak season and people are just not buying stuff right now. Availability is just relative... I have been checking my local (2 stores) they have never ran out of them for awhile now.

and some fool reported about India/"other country" being out of stock in major retail shops? I smelly desire for bogus-Andy Warhol-attention-frog's tongue-zap-fly-catch maneuver. People will say some (TIHS) to get attention!

people should stop stating/speculating based on logistics/availability.
for example, some people/sites have been mentioning Best Buy shortages...
They've been short for months off and on... it's the way they stock them. Still in its pilot stage, they haven't fully blown to market Apple Computer Stuff. We can't base or assume anything by "best buy" stock level on their web store! Best Buy is very smart marketers, MAINLY, and this is my logical opinion, they don't want to repeat Goodguys/Compusa's mistake. Just offer it without really getting into demographics and all doesn't make good business sense... Consumer demand - Econ. 101.

stop hurting, us/me-specifically, by nicotine smoke filling our already brittle hearts...
State hard evidence or just your opinion. Don't be the 'BOY WHO CRIED WOLF'

Only solid rumor/evidentiary we've had was the SDK/Apple event...that can parallel "NEW MBP" release or just what theyapple do best; Silent-Butt-Deadly Ninja-Fart release it...

!kcuf
I want it so bad!
grrrrrrrr

 

[Stuart in Oz]

I snapped and bought a black MacBook

I couldn't hold out any longer so this afternoon I drove to my favourite Apple store and bought me a nice shiny new black MacBook, which I am now typing this on. I've been borrowing minutes on my wife's white MB for three months now and it's been killing me. I have a heap of work banked up and I just couldn't wait any longer.

I suppose you better remove me from the list.

Now that I've got this lovely black MacBook I'll see what comes out and reassess my MBP desires. I might give this to my Dad & still get myself a MBP - or wait until Montevina changeover? I still really want a 17" with a powerful graphics card for gaming and HD video editing.

The black MacBook is a nice machine though.

 

[pksweedflame]

I'm really getting worried about the MBP update for a number of reasons:

a) They're not going to make it so attractive in terms of re-design and new features to pull away potential MBA buyers, as the two machines are virtually priced similarly;

b) The new Intel Montevina platform is due in early June, only about 3 months away from now. Although a mbp update was due at MacWorld, will they release a new mbp only to be updated again with a much more significant revision - Montevina - in June?

c) We've seen so many distractions in the past few weeks - 16GB iPhone, 32GB iPod Touch, 2GB iPod shuffle, 1GB iPod shuffle price-drop, Leopard update, touch/iphone software update and of course the macbook air at macworld - to delay the revision as much as possible. Will we see something new between now and June?




Despite these arguments, I hope to see a macbook pro next week - otherwise I will be so ****ing angry with Apple......

 

[skiffx]

I'm really getting worried about the MBP update for a number of reasons:

a) They're not going to make it so attractive in terms of re-design and new features to pull away potential MBA buyers, as the two machines are virtually priced similarly;

b) The new Intel Montevina platform is due in early June, only about 3 months away from now. Although a mbp update was due at MacWorld, will they release a new mbp only to be updated again with a much more significant revision - Montevina - in June?

c) We've seen so many distractions in the past few weeks - 16GB iPhone, 32GB iPod Touch, 2GB iPod shuffle, 1GB iPod shuffle price-drop, Leopard update, touch/iphone software update and of course the macbook air at macworld - to delay the revision as much as possible. Will we see something new between now and June?




Despite these arguments, I hope to see a macbook pro next week - otherwise I will be so ****ing angry with Apple......

well to address point b, all major computer companies (dell, hp, etc) are just announcing and making penryns available so its not like they missed it by 2 months by not announcing it in January. I doubt they will skip a version.

 

[melchior]

I'm really getting worried about the MBP update for a number of reasons:

a) They're not going to make it so attractive in terms of re-design and new features to pull away potential MBA buyers, as the two machines are virtually priced similarly;

b) The new Intel Montevina platform is due in early June, only about 3 months away from now. Although a mbp update was due at MacWorld, will they release a new mbp only to be updated again with a much more significant revision - Montevina - in June?

c) We've seen so many distractions in the past few weeks - 16GB iPhone, 32GB iPod Touch, 2GB iPod shuffle, 1GB iPod shuffle price-drop, Leopard update, touch/iphone software update and of course the macbook air at macworld - to delay the revision as much as possible. Will we see something new between now and June?




Despite these arguments, I hope to see a macbook pro next week - otherwise I will be so ****ing angry with Apple......

To address point a), apple doesn't care which sells more. ultra-portable has always been a niche and with apple feature cutting, they've made it more so, at least for the moment. The only thing that matters is profit margin. I would suggest, comparing to other similarly speced laptops, that the pro is a higher margin, not including R&D, which could change the equation dramatically.

b) don't expect to see a montevina laptop in june or anywhere near to then. start thinking september. seriously.


c) apple does seem to be on a bit of a roll, trying to keep up the momentum of macworld with update after update so they at least get a mention in the tech blogs each week. personally it's annoying, but hey, if apple is trying to reach the average sucker, brand recognition is important.

 

[Stuart in Oz]

b) don't expect to see a montevina laptop in june or anywhere near to then. start thinking september. seriously.

I think you're right melchior. Now that Intel have pushed Penryn back a month or two it'd be a fair bet that the Montevina platform will be the pushed back a roughly equal amount of time. Otherwise Intel and their customers (such as Apple) might find updates coming so close to each other as to be difficult to manage and market properly.

If a Penryn update comes out soon (and we all think it will) then Montevina would fit nicely for about September.

 

[skiffx]

I think you're right melchior. Now that Intel have pushed Penryn back a month or two it'd be a fair bet that the Montevina platform will be the pushed back a roughly equal amount of time. Otherwise Intel and their customers (such as Apple) might find updates coming so close to each other as to be difficult to manage and market properly.

If a Penryn update comes out soon (and we all think it will) then Montevina would fit nicely for about September.

Yep not to mention Intel has to sell a certain amount Penryns to make profit on them, so I doubt they will be releasing Montevina early enough to hurt Penryn sales.

 

[jk000]

Well I had a BTO MBP 17th, and now it says prepared for shipment, but it wont ship till monday...or possibly tuesday?

It shows a ship date of no later then the 25th.

This sounds encouraging. It's like what happened with Leopard, everyone was speculating on the release date, however on the site, Tiger had a delivery date of October 26th (3 weeks away) which was strange since it should ship immediately. Basically indicating that it was such a wait because what would in fact be delivered was Leopard (as apple want as many people on the newest OS as possible).

However if your MBP order was actually custom, then this won't change anything.

 

[davidec]

Yep not to mention Intel has to sell a certain amount Penryns to make profit on them, so I doubt they will be releasing Montevina early enough to hurt Penryn sales.

The Penryn processors will fit straight in to the Montevina platform. Penryns will be used until Nehalem drops next year.

 

[ZootHorn]

Shoopa Shoopa QUALITY POST?

Our local 'wait-club' held hands in a circle - Druid-style - and chanted "Orp-koobcaM Rary 26" repeatedly in unsion during the recent eclipse. One of our (voodoo) members assured us this would bring bad, bad joojoo mojo on Stevie J if we did not see something this Tuesday. So there.
Redrum Redrum Redrum

Shoopa - in your post you include a sentence that, as a former Lit teacher, I find rather remarkable. Sometimes when I am evaluating writing I just have to stop and smile at a student's taste for the bizarre. The sentence: "I smelly desire for bogus-Andy Warhol-attention-frog's tongue-zap-fly-catch maneuver." needs to be in an award competition of some kind. What does it mean?

Still dying out here and waiting, waiting, waiting.

ZootHorn Rolo

 

[iMack007]

However if your MBP order was actually custom, then this won't change anything.

You don't say.

Eh...at least I finally have a laptop with an actual graphics card. And btw, my order has shipped. So I guess next month

 

[Stridder44]

b) don't expect to see a montevina laptop in june or anywhere near to then. start thinking september. seriously.

Bears repeating.