MacBook Pro/Air refresh schedule - Haswell release timeline

[IGregory]

'm not an expert but companies are in business to make money. If a company can bring a product to market and make money off of it they will do so as time for production allows. Maybe the reason Intel has "fallen behind" is because their research, development issues, and quality control does not allow for a faster product schedule. Better to get it right than release it and experience the difficulties, as an example, Apple is experiencing with its Retina displays.

 

[dusk007]

Companies also look at the competition. If there is no need to bring something better to market because the competition is so far behind, it helps to keep your aces in hand and deal them when you need. Especially in tech advancements and break throughs don't happen on command. If you beat the competition already why not wait.
The market is saturated just from selling better chips Intel won't sell more. They only need to be better than the competition so that most of the market share is theirs.
The percentage of people that wait for the next gen like many on macrumors isn't all that high. Most people buy when they need to and whatever is currently the best or the best value on the market.

 

[skaertus]

Intel has been falling behind on its tick tock schedule for a while now. It was and still is too optimistic. Ivy Bridge should have showed much sooner too. Even Sandy Bridge was a bit behind. Arrendale was the last which at least on paper was in time.
The whole schedule seems to be falling behind by almost a full year.

Indeed. The Haswell launch is at least six months behind the original schedule.

But on the other hand they are still faster then all the rest of the industry. TSMC was also more ambitious and failed too often. Better Intel is a bit optimistic than less ambitious and still missing the traget. It is kind of standard in the industry to miss the roadmap or just barely make it. When they say Q1 it often means paper launch in March rather than actual launch in Jan or Feb.
That is how it has always been.

The rest of the industry... well, depends on what the rest of the industry is. I guess AMD is not even a competitor anymore.

I thought Intel would really push the release of Haswell. PC sales are in a declining trend, and a boost is desired. This delay could cost a lot to Intel.

14nm is apparently still on schedule to start production in Q4/2013 which would give use Broadwell any time in 1H/2014. It wouldn't really make any economic sense to give Haswell so little time but leaving the 14nm fabs sit idle is not smart either. I doubt that 14nm will not have any problem and most likely they will take their time fixing them before they role it out too soon. I think they will end up postponing the whole thing into 2H/2014.

Broadwell uses the same architecture of Haswell. I do not know if Broadwell is on track, as I see no news on that. It is more likely that, even if Broadwell is on track, Intel delays its release so Haswell can sell. And then it can slow down a bit the development of Skylane...

Haswell looks like to have the following release schedule so far:

Q2: Haswell "soft" launch (desktop and quad-core mobile processors, at limited quantities)
Q3: Haswell ultra-low voltage mobile processors (17W TDP)
Q4: Haswell dual-core mobile processors (35W TDP)

If this release schedule is maintained, I agree with you that we may see Braodwell in Q3/Q4 2014.

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'm not an expert but companies are in business to make money. If a company can bring a product to market and make money off of it they will do so as time for production allows. Maybe the reason Intel has "fallen behind" is because their research, development issues, and quality control does not allow for a faster product schedule. Better to get it right than release it and experience the difficulties, as an example, Apple is experiencing with its Retina displays.

Although there are some difficulties with the retina display, it is not something out of this world. All displays - even regular ones - have their own problems. Backlight bleeding, dead pixels, and so on. Retina displays were not widely tested before the launch, as Apple wanted to keep secrecy about the product. And the result is that there are always flaws, although I do not see them as a big problem that should delay launch.

Intel seems to be really getting into trouble with the new architecture. And it is embarassing that Haswell is the second new architecture in a row that is released with glitches.

 

[skaertus]

Companies also look at the competition. If there is no need to bring something better to market because the competition is so far behind, it helps to keep your aces in hand and deal them when you need. Especially in tech advancements and break throughs don't happen on command. If you beat the competition already why not wait.
The market is saturated just from selling better chips Intel won't sell more. They only need to be better than the competition so that most of the market share is theirs.
The percentage of people that wait for the next gen like many on macrumors isn't all that high. Most people buy when they need to and whatever is currently the best or the best value on the market.

I agree. But I do not think this is the case of Intel.

Intel desperately needs to get something better to the market, so it can assure its own survival. Let me explain my point.

AMD is gone. It poses no competition to Intel anymore. Intel has the lion share of processors based on the x86 architecture. But that is not enough.

Sales of PCs based on the x86 architecture are declining, as people are not buying them. The industry of smartphones and tablets is booming. Tablets are replacing laptops as the choice of consumers.

One may say that tablets (and smartphones) are not direct competitors to laptops, and not nearly as powerful. But the source of money is the same, and people may decide to spend their money buying an iPhone or an iPad, with all the hype around them, and that the laptop is still good enough for their needs.

A tablet is cheaper than a laptop, has better battery life, and is thinner and lighter. A laptop is more powerful, but people may think they do not need it, or just do not perceive the difference in performance.

Most tablets and smartphones run on ARM architecture, which is more power-efficient than Intel. ARM is the big Intel competitor these days, and cheaper devices running iOS and Android keep rolling out, and grabbing sales which otherwise could be allocated to Intel-powered devices.

ARM-driven devices are still too underpowered to compete with mighty PCs running on Intel processors. And iOS and Android are far behind Windows and OS X. Intel has some comfort on that, as it will have at least the high-end market in the years to come. But ARM will eventually catch up. Intel has to move fast if it wants to keep its current position. Times they are a-changin'.

 

[superblockio]

Indeed, it will be interesting to see how all of this plays out in the years to come. Another thing that keeps Intel in the lead is professional software support. All of the major business / creative applications (not to mention the development tools that are used to create them) are x86 based. So even if you have a device with Windows RT or ARM linux, you won't be able to run a lot of the more "useful" apps. For now, ARM devices are sort of locked into being thought of as consumer devices. I definitely think this will change in the coming years though.

Anyway, I think I might go ahead and get a retina mbp once I save up just a little more money. Thanks for everyone in this forum's input. Part of me wants to hold off till WWDC in case Apple pulls a rabbit out of their hat and says "LOL we've had Haswell this whole time!" But it is seeming less and less likely that we'll be seeing new macbook pros this summer. I could wait until September or whenever, but it just doesn't seem like this next update will be so special that I'll kick myself for getting an rMBP now, as there will always be new and better things on the horizon.

The only other thing that might cause me to wait is that I've heard the current retina macbook pro still has some unresolved performance-related problems like UI lag. If the integrated Haswell GPU is better able to push all those pixels without lagging or having to fall back to the dedicated GPU, that seems like it would be a worthwhile reason to wait.

 

[Serban]

It seems and will be very likely to see in next lineup macbooks beside the haswell features to introduce the capability to use sim card for LTE on them. Because the chromebook pixel has it. So this is a must and probably will have. So we will have 2 line ups for macbook air and macbook pro

macbook air wifi starts from that price
LTE starts from that price
and the configurations

retina macbook pro wifi
LTE

im sure 100% that will be in the next haswell lineup

 

[B...]

You contradicted yourself a few times. Sure,probably, must have, 100% will have, very likely. Which is it?

Also,this is a rumors website. A consumer cannot be 100% sure of anything.

 

[Serban]

Yes in terms of 1 minute i've changed my mind that will be 100%

 

[dusk007]

I agree. But I do not think this is the case of Intel.

Intel desperately needs to get something better to the market, so it can assure its own survival. Let me explain my point.

AMD is gone. It poses no competition to Intel anymore. Intel has the lion share of processors based on the x86 architecture. But that is not enough.

Sales of PCs based on the x86 architecture are declining, as people are not buying them. The industry of smartphones and tablets is booming. Tablets are replacing laptops as the choice of consumers.

One may say that tablets (and smartphones) are not direct competitors to laptops, and not nearly as powerful. But the source of money is the same, and people may decide to spend their money buying an iPhone or an iPad, with all the hype around them, and that the laptop is still good enough for their needs.

A tablet is cheaper than a laptop, has better battery life, and is thinner and lighter. A laptop is more powerful, but people may think they do not need it, or just do not perceive the difference in performance.

Most tablets and smartphones run on ARM architecture, which is more power-efficient than Intel. ARM is the big Intel competitor these days, and cheaper devices running iOS and Android keep rolling out, and grabbing sales which otherwise could be allocated to Intel-powered devices.

ARM-driven devices are still too underpowered to compete with mighty PCs running on Intel processors. And iOS and Android are far behind Windows and OS X. Intel has some comfort on that, as it will have at least the high-end market in the years to come. But ARM will eventually catch up. Intel has to move fast if it wants to keep its current position. Times they are a-changin'.

I think your argument has quite a few flaws.
Getting faster chips out will barely affect tablets sales. The people that buy tablets don't buy them because they don't perceive enough of a difference. They buy them because they perceive them as fast enough, cheaper and more practical. The notebooks getting faster won't change any of that. People that are in the market for notebooks will buy those the rest will still prefer a tablet.
Intel can only hope to get more tablet design wins. Haswell isn't going to be too great for that. The chip alone costs almost as much as you can get an entire tablet for today. Even more of those 7W CPUs will only show up in some lower volume highend piece which essentially costs notebook prices. That is just a different notebook not a real tablet competitor.
What they need is their next Atom. The one in 22nm should help a lot but around the same time 20nm ARM will show so the difference will be limited. At 14nm they have a real chance to lead the game.

ARM isn't more power efficient anymore. The 32nm Atom stacks up really well efficiency wise. Atom isn't even in 22nm yet. It is a terrible chip paired with that outdated GPU but the CPU side does very well even in 32nm.
Intel really needs 14nm to rule but as it looks they will get there soon. There isn't many news about broadwell but 14nm seems to be on track to start in Q4/2013 which would be really soon. 2015 they may actually have their 14nm Atom while the rest of the industry is at 20nm.
Everything above 17W really doesn't matter when Intel delivers it yet it always shows first.

 

[skaertus]

I think your argument has quite a few flaws.
Getting faster chips out will barely affect tablets sales. The people that buy tablets don't buy them because they don't perceive enough of a difference. They buy them because they perceive them as fast enough, cheaper and more practical. The notebooks getting faster won't change any of that. People that are in the market for notebooks will buy those the rest will still prefer a tablet.

Not faster. More power efficient, that is. Intel is developing processors which are more power-efficient, so they can deliver good battery life inside cheap tablets. That's tablet's world, and Intel has to adapt to it.

Intel can only hope to get more tablet design wins. Haswell isn't going to be too great for that. The chip alone costs almost as much as you can get an entire tablet for today. Even more of those 7W CPUs will only show up in some lower volume highend piece which essentially costs notebook prices. That is just a different notebook not a real tablet competitor.

Will the 7W TDP processor be so expensive?

What they need is their next Atom. The one in 22nm should help a lot but around the same time 20nm ARM will show so the difference will be limited. At 14nm they have a real chance to lead the game.

Intel may have some chance at 22nm as well...

ARM isn't more power efficient anymore. The 32nm Atom stacks up really well efficiency wise. Atom isn't even in 22nm yet. It is a terrible chip paired with that outdated GPU but the CPU side does very well even in 32nm.

Intel really needs 14nm to rule but as it looks they will get there soon. There isn't many news about broadwell but 14nm seems to be on track to start in Q4/2013 which would be really soon. 2015 they may actually have their 14nm Atom while the rest of the industry is at 20nm.
Everything above 17W really doesn't matter when Intel delivers it yet it always shows first.

How does ARM compare to the current Atom?

 

[dusk007]

Will the 7W TDP processor be so expensive?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivy_Bridge_(microarchitecture)
Well the Y series which is that 7/10W chip in Ivy Bridge costs just the same as any other 17/35/45 W core i7 or i5. The chips that go into tablets costs a 1/10th of that. It is a huge difference.
With IPS panels and compelling designs such Haswell tablets will all cost just as much as ultrabooks. Just more versatile ultrabooks really. It may stop people from buying the additional tablet (as an addon to a notebook) if they already got an allround perfect machine but I doubt it will really increase notebook sales.

How does ARM compare to the current Atom?

On the CPU side it looses unless it can make use of its core count. Usually the GPUs they are paired with are much better. At the end of the day ARM still rules today but that is mostly because the current Atom seems outdated. So few cores, so poor graphics and still only 32nm.
For 22nm Intel plans a new out of order design, add completely new GPU and they get 22nm. Since they plan to move to 14nm very quickly that is when I think they will pull ahead. At 22nm it all depends on how good those new designs do. I think they should at least offer an about equally compelling package but it might also be quite a bit better.

http://anandtech.com/show/6767/intel-demos-clovertrail-based-lenovo-ideaphone-k900-ahead-of-mwc
http://anandtech.com/show/6827/samsung-ativ-smart-pc-revisiting-clover-trail-convertibles
http://anandtech.com/show/6529/busting-the-x86-power-myth-indepth-clover-trail-power-analysis
Generally what can be said is that x86 is no obstacle for power efficiency anymore even in the sub 2W space. Intel being so cheap on the GPU and core count sells this thing short of where it could be in comparison to everything else.
22nm Atom will even show up a little before 20nm competition and initially go up against 28nm ARM. Once 20nm ARM is out in force they plan to already transition to 14nm. At that point high end in smartphones and tablets may mean Atom. Atoms Intel also sells for way way less than its Core iX chips.

I think just for web browsing, mails and youtube which is what most tablets are used for Atom and ARM are way better and worlds cheaper. Intel wants Haswell to be expensive and keep its ridiculous profit margins on those chips. They will stay expensive and Intel will wait for Atom to battle ARM in the tablet/smartphone cheap chipset market.

 

[pmgreen]

My 2008 MBP just died so in the market for a new one. Best to wait for the new gen or jump on the aggressive pricing of the current stock? Hoping to see the 15.4 drop as much as the 13.3

 

[skaertus]

My 2008 MBP just died so in the market for a new one. Best to wait for the new gen or jump on the aggressive pricing of the current stock? Hoping to see the 15.4 drop as much as the 13.3

At this point, it's hard to know what will happen. I wouldn't expect the refreshed laptops to come out so soon, as the first Haswell processors which will be released in June will have the USB 3.0 glitch, and Apple perhaps will skip these.

 

[dusk007]

My 2008 MBP just died so in the market for a new one. Best to wait for the new gen or jump on the aggressive pricing of the current stock? Hoping to see the 15.4 drop as much as the 13.3

You might wait for a while. Apple could update the 15.4" end of July in theory but I would call it unlikely. Most likely they update the whole line at once and wait for the new Haswell stepping. The whole thing may happen in September or even later.

If you want a 15.4" buy it now. The differences will be marginal. Just having the notebook now for many more months will most likely make up for any price drop. I wouldn't really expect too much of a price drop anyway.
Most likely they will just drop the normal MBP and put a non dedicated GPU Version in that lower price point. The rest maybe $200 cheaper but not that much more.
I wouldn't wait for half a year for effectively the same notebook on the off chance of a worthwhile price drop.

 

[skaertus]

You might wait for a while. Apple could update the 15.4" end of July in theory but I would call it unlikely. Most likely they update the whole line at once and wait for the new Haswell stepping. The whole thing may happen in September or even later.

What about the 13.3" model? When would you expect a Haswell version? Rumors say that dual-core standard voltage Haswell processors will only be available on Q4 2013. I've been waiting forever to buy this particular model, since it was announced last year, and I'm about to give up and surrender to whatever is in store.

 

[Mr MM]

What about the 13.3" model? When would you expect a Haswell version? Rumors say that dual-core standard voltage Haswell processors will only be available on Q4 2013. I've been waiting forever to buy this particular model, since it was announced last year, and I'm about to give up and surrender to whatever is in store.

lets hope that they actually use quads this time, and last I heard dual cores and ULVs were Q3

 

[dusk007]

What about the 13.3" model? When would you expect a Haswell version? Rumors say that dual-core standard voltage Haswell processors will only be available on Q4 2013. I've been waiting forever to buy this particular model, since it was announced last year, and I'm about to give up and surrender to whatever is in store.

It is the 15" which in theory could get updated sooner but I guess they will all show at the same time.
I can only repeat what I wrote many times before. I would wait on a 13" if you can and don't need a notebook now. I wouldn't for a 15". If gaming doesn't matter, you can just buy now. For OSX and most of what you do there the hd 4000 is fine and the CPU of Haswell won't be any faster(nothing to write home about anyway). Unless of course you want/need a quad core but if they actually use a quad core is in no way certain.

 

[OnlyGerman]

what else do you guys expect to see updated besides haswell

 

[B...]

what else do you guys expect to see updated besides haswell

iGPU, dGPU, CPU, hopefully price, maybe/probably not increased standard SSD size, maybe more RAM option (16 GB) for 13".

 

[Mr MM]

what else do you guys expect to see updated besides haswell

i wanted a rainbow maker

 

[adjeff8]

what else do you guys expect to see updated besides haswell

The new 802.11 AC wifi. Bigger SSD. A more stable machine seeing that it's a TRUE 2nd generation and every 2nd generation Apple Product is better than the 1st

 

[OnlyGerman]

The new 802.11 AC wifi. Bigger SSD. A more stable machine seeing that it's a TRUE 2nd generation and every 2nd generation Apple Product is better than the 1st

bigger ssd standard ?

 

[skaertus]

lets hope that they actually use quads this time, and last I heard dual cores and ULVs were Q3

ULV dual-core processors are coming Q3 2013. But I've read news that 35W dual-core processors will only come Q4 2013:

http://www.fudzilla.com/home/item/30859-haswell-35w-dual-cores-in-q4-2013

Apple will probably stick to 35W dual cores for the 13" rMBP. However, there is a chance Apple adopts something different, as the current 13" rMBP is reportedly a flop. I think the 13" rMBP is the best laptop in the world today, and I'll definitely buy it, but apparently people didn't get seduced by the retina display alone and were expecting more horsepower at this price. Apple may put a quad-core or a dedicated GPU in the 13" rMBP to boost its puny sales, especially if it intends to put a retina display on the MBA as well.

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bigger ssd standard ?

Apple may put a 256 GB standard on the lower-end model, and keep the 256 GB on the higher-end, with a faster processor. That is a possibility.

 

[Augustine864]

It is the 15" which in theory could get updated sooner but I guess they will all show at the same time.
I can only repeat what I wrote many times before. I would wait on a 13" if you can and don't need a notebook now. I wouldn't for a 15". If gaming doesn't matter, you can just buy now. For OSX and most of what you do there the hd 4000 is fine and the CPU of Haswell won't be any faster(nothing to write home about anyway). Unless of course you want/need a quad core but if they actually use a quad core is in no way certain.

What is your theory on waiting on the 13"? I am in the market for a 13" rMBP I think, and wondering if I should hang on. I was reading about the reported notebook refresh in Q2(end?), and wondering whether or not I should wait. Not sure if it applies to the rMBP or just the MBP and air. I had been waiting on the back to school sale, but now I feel like I'm waiting for WWDC. However, I am leaving the country for school on August 10 and I want to have it in time to get everything set while I'm at home.

the current 13" rMBP is reportedly a flop. I think the 13" rMBP is the best laptop in the world today, and I'll definitely buy it, but apparently people didn't get seduced by the retina display alone and were expecting more horsepower at this price. Apple may put a quad-core or a dedicated GPU in the 13" rMBP to boost its puny sales, especially if it intends to put a retina display on the MBA as well.

Do you the the supposed Q2 update would apply here?

 

[skaertus]

What is your theory on waiting on the 13"? I am in the market for a 13" rMBP I think, and wondering if I should hang on. I was reading about the reported notebook refresh in Q2(end?), and wondering whether or not I should wait. Not sure if it applies to the rMBP or just the MBP and air. I had been waiting on the back to school sale, but now I feel like I'm waiting for WWDC. However, I am leaving the country for school on August 10 and I want to have it in time to get everything set while I'm at home.

I am on the market for the 13" rMBP, and I have no idea on when a new version will be released.

Do you the the supposed Q2 update would apply here?

If I had to guess, I would say that Apple won't release any refreshed laptop in Q2. Haswell processors will have the USB 3.0 gitch in the beginning, and Apple will likely wait for Intel to release the fix so it doesn't affect the Macs. If I were to guess, I would say that the likely schedule is as follows: 15" rMBP on Q3, MBA on Q3, and 13" rMBP on Q4.

I'm pretty pessimistic at this point. I wish Apple refreshed the whole line in June, but I'm skeptical. Intel has been delaying Haswell forever. Should it keep the original schedule, Haswell would have been released back in January. Now, it is scheduled for June, and only the quad-cores with a USB 3.0 glitch.