Mark Zuckerberg Says Apple Vision Pro Has No 'Magical Solutions'

[Churchman]

I do so enjoy reading comments on this site!

My take on the magic Apple goggles -> yes the goggles were revealed with a champaign and caviar price. But, there is a huge and obvious but...

This is what I think (repeat -- below is my speculation... :
- Apple engineers gave Tim Cook a quarterly or annual update on the project these last several years.
- Cook tells them in 2022, "It's good enough. It's testing well enough internally. Our internal Devs have showed me 100 new potential Apps. Our Apple+ team, and the Disney devs complain that the slow-walking of this project is blocking the reinvention of the film/TV content experience, keeping movie ROI depressed. Get it ready to reveal in 2023."
- We see the 1st real world glimpse of the product June 5, 2023.
- By 5PM Pacific Time on June 5, Cook locks in hundreds or thousands of devs seeking SDK and other details to create Apps and software and integration platforms for business, education, entertainment, manufacturing, govt/defense, research, porn, etc.
- The 1st sellable unit will not be ready until 2024 (I forget the precise delivery time-frame). So Cook knows that he still has XX months to refine the hardware, software, UX and human-machine integration, clunky battery cable, battery life, and comfort.
- Cook knows he might get another 20-25% product refinement from the Vision engineering team between June 5 2023 and the actual ship date 2024.
- What Cook counts on is that between June 5 2023, and ship date 2024, the goggles will launch on Day-1 concurrently with a suite of killer apps and use-cases that are immediately ready / plug-N-play for business, education, entertainment, manufacturing, govt/defense, research... and personal use.
- Cook knows that the $3500 launch price will capture first movers / early adopters, which will help to quickly pay down the LONG program timing and huge R&D costs. That $3500 price is the high end product that Cook knows is not targeted at the average Pat/Joe/Jane. It's the same plan you do with luxury cars - launch the premium config first to get the fat revenue streams from the early adopter suckers. Then launch the less premium versions after word of mouth has the remaining 80% of buyers salivating. Apple has done this strategy to great success as well in the past. This should be no surprise.
- I think many of the Vision use cases will be tied to subscription services so that Apple and the dev community can share monthly revenue streams. Cook and his finance team are locking in any new subscription deals for Vision now through the remainder of the summer.
- SIDE NOTE: I think Vision 3.5 or Vision 4.0 will slim down to a pair of RayBan Aviator type glasses with side shields, and will basically obsolete the iPhone. And I think that when this happens, Apple will be ready to start offering Apple branded cell phone / data service (obsoleting AT&T and Verizon).
- Right now, Cook has Goggle Team #2 working on a Vision SE version (@ about $1700) and a basic Vision version (@ about $2600).
- Cook also has a finance team working on Goggle Project #3: the profitability of a Vision refurb plan (what will wear and tear look like for this product... is repairability / re-service financially feasible... when would it be worth while to offer a refurb product if they also do a Vision SE... what would be a price point for a Vision refurb product?)
- In 2024, after product shipments start and after word of mouth has done wonders to burnish the Magical Wow factor of the goggles, Cook will do an event and launch the basic Vision at some point late in 2024 (@ about the $2500-$2600 price point).... followed by the cheap Vision SE version (@ about $1500 to $1700) in 2025/2026.

Recall when the iPhone launched, folks said that Apple would take years to sell a million phones? If these goggles and the apps that are being made for them truly redefine (FILL IN THE BLANK) in business, education, entertainment, manufacturing, govt/defense, research, porn, etc.... you could see Vision sales doing 5X the total of what the Zucker's glasses have sold, perhaps in the space of maybe 12-24 months.

This is just my speculation.

 

[TonnyM]

Every single person that have tried Vision Pro says it’s magic.

 

[Abazigal]

Mark Zuckerberg should be afraid.

In the short run, pointing to how the high price of the vision pro will limit sales is probably a “safe” assertion which will not get anyone fired. It lets competitors ignore the elephant in the room and carry on business as normal. It also creates a false sense of complacency, and I sure hope he isn’t being complacent.

What he should be concerned about is Apple’s proven track record for product segmentation, or how Apple is building a platform around their headset, and that Facebook will likely have very limited opportunities to track and monetise their users (since they can’t access eye tracking).

It’s easy to see Apple eventually releasing a wider lineup that covers more price points and removes any existing oxygen in the room for the competition.

Remember, it’s no longer enough to offer a product that beats Apple products in one area or another. You have to match their entire ecosystem, because that’s what Apple is selling these days. Not products, but experiences, made possible by their tight control over hardware, software and services.

 

[spazzcat]

"Can't wait to get our hands on it" Yeah then reverse engineer the sh*t out go it and palm the ideas off as their own. The Vision Pro rollout is more like the Mac announcement than the iPhone announcement. It will be copied and a substandard version of the experience sold for cheaper by competitors. And it may just be "good enough" of most people to use just like Windows back in the day. Interesting times ahead.

There is one issue with this, and it is the R1 chip, this is where the magic is, and Facebook doesn't have the resources to create their own chips

 

[JapanApple]

Price points are important, apple is costly and better application of uses. The other is cheaper and limited. Each has its own use.... there be more in this segment soon. More powerful and cheaper.

 

[darthaddie]

In a realm where everyone gets a fair opportunity, He sounds like a jackass. What the ZUCK!!!!

 

[Mrkevinfinnerty]

Every single person that have tried Vision Pro says it’s magic.

Yep, makes all of your money disappear 🪄

 

[Mr. Jenkins]

Apple doing the Metaverse better than Meta?

 

[dork]

If ever there were anybody familiar with the lack of "magical solutions"....

 

[dork]

Apple's presentation at times did show some magic and amazement.
Something Apple hadn't done for a long time.
Yes, very expensive but a lot of promise.

Exactly. Everybody in the press who has tried it has talked about how amazing the experience was - killer app or no. I don't hear anybody anywhere raving about how incredible anyone else's VR headset is. Even if it did nothing other than replace the three displays on my desk, to me that might be enough to justify buying one if it works as well as people are saying.

 

[BobSc]

nope,,

Apple Vision Pro is for sad RICH depressed person sitting on sofa alone opening their desktops and watching movies and facetime with a friend or family member.

Best of luck to you.

 

[citysnaps]

Apple fanboys will not believe Meta is far more advanced in VR headsets than Apple.

Meta is like Tesla. it is 10 years ahead of competitors.

Now that's a real knee-slapper!!!

But please...don't say stuff like that when I'm drinking cold milk. Not pretty.

 

[DarthBuzzard]

Apple fanboys will not believe Meta is far more advanced in VR headsets than Apple.

Meta is like Tesla. it is 10 years ahead of competitors.

Was that really your takeaway from my comment?

Neither company should be laughed at - both are pushing the boundaries.

Apple happened to choose shipping cutting edge tech, and Meta is focusing more on longer-term solutions that are the end goal. Both are valid and ultimately good for the market.

 

[huge_apple_fangirl]

Apple hasn't made any case for this Vision Pro. It's just an amazing tech demo, like a car whose wheels turn into propellers and it flies like a drone, for 5 minutes, and costs $1.5mil.

Perfect analogy.

 

[Kierkegaarden]

I don't like the man but it's true. There is not one killer app.

The “killer app” of Vision Pro is the UI/UX.

 

[BornAgainMac]

Reminds me of Balmer. The Apple headset doesn't have a keyboard so it won't be a good email machine.

 

[Alan Wynn]

Can't. Even with the Studio XDR displays out there, you can't interface with most Arri, Panavision, RED cameras and virtualization systems for on-set fx previz ... none of Apple's displays have SDI inputs, which are required for video village.

First, one does not need SDI for this, as it is not a replacement for video village. It is for virtual production. It will enable the director to walk through the shot, integrating the CG playback and the live location view. Having already done this with less capable headsets like Microsoft’s, I know this will be better and easier.

Also, you couldn't use it for straight up filming due to latency. That would be true of any VR headset. Production systems all have zero latency monitoring passthrough.

I do not know what you mean by “straight up filming”, but an additional use would be capturing 3D for pre-visualization. Finally, more than half of Teradek’s products are not ”zero latency”, especially given that they transcode to some compressed format. Not sure why that matters any way, but just thought I would point that out.

Motion pictures are not a practical application for the AVP, as much as I like the tech, motion picture and television production is a completely different thing... AVP has lots of applications in professional applications but that isn't one of them.

My experience in virtual production is apparently different than yours.

 

[NT1440]

All advertising is manipulation. No one is in the ad business, and no one buys ads (including Apple), for altruistic reasons. Anyone who advertises anything is seeking to manipulate. Plus, what constitutes “direct” versus indirect? advertising? Should we not allow any kind of advertising at all?

Reminds me of Balmer. The Apple headset doesn't have a keyboard so it won't be a good email machine.

Connect a keyboard?

 

[gaximus]

No, what he means is that at Meta they are trying to build a 'place' where people socialise virtually. So you sit at home, put on the headset and you go to some Jetsons-style plaza, our lounge or cinema or whatever. You hang out with your social circle on Meta's 'property'. So, just like Facebook really, but with 3D graphics - they're harvesting users, herding them into their manipulation zones. On the Quest they've been trying it all kinds of ways over the years, but it's the same core objective every time.

Apple didn't showcase anything like that at all, it's was actually much better IMHO. You just brought FaceTime callers into your own space (your actual house), not into some 3rd party space full of ads and exploitation. It's kinda 'social' but private, like real social interactions are. It's a pretty stark difference between the two. Zuck just can't understand why/how people could socialise without him being there to mush them together like dolls.

Exactly, and I think Apple was very smart on how they are marketing this. This is a device that you can purchase and no one else has to buy. In fact they didn’t show a single interaction with two people having the VisionPro on. It’s expensive, but you don’t need your friends to buy one for you to enjoy it. I sure Apple has some awesome plans for when it’s cheaper and non-pro versions, that do the social thing really well. But for now it’s just buy this thing for yourself, and don’t worry about your friends having one, it works with FaceTime.

 

[Alan Wynn]

Is this some model that you're imagining? Well, then yeah ok, NEXT NEXT year's Apple Vision Pro is going to have a neural link, realtime brain recording, and a multi trillion pixel 360 degree holographic display, with a battery the size of a walnut that can power the entire city of Hoboken, New Jersey.

No, no, no. That is the one from 2025, next year’s just add teleportation and food replication.

Otherwise, if we're actually talking reality, Meta will continue using the Snapdragon XR that they've used on several models now... even if they up-leveled five or six tiers of processor, they wouldn't be close to the M2... without just remaking the Magic Leap 2 or HoloLens which cost ... about the same as an AVP with a tenth the features.

Funny how future (often unannounced) products from other companies always beat current products from Apple.

 

[ninethirty]

This has to be a real tough one for this forum. On the one hand, they want to crap all over Vision Pro and Tim Cook, but on the other hand, they hate Zuck.

I suspect for now they'll side with Apple, but once this dies down, they'll be right back to telling you why the iPad is... er, sorry, the Apple Wat... er, sorry, why Apple Vision Pro is dumb.

 

[skinnylegs]

Laughable.......

 

[Robert.Walter]

Funny coming from a guy that is devoid of magic … how can he tell?

 

[Devyn89]

I think VisionOS will be a much slower burn than the iPhone - as in it will take a fair bit longer to become mainstream but I think this could be something very cool in a couple of generations.

 

[dbwie]

As much as I don't like him, he didn't lie and made a few good points.

People in this thread tend to get very defensive, but he didn't criticize Vision Pro, just said that meta had different values and vision when it came to designing such device and that's it...

Well, they weren’t all sitting on the couch. There was the guy in his office with his laptop, expanding a virtual screen above his laptop, and interacting with coworkers, while having multiple screens up. There was the commercial with the guy working on some kind of surfboard design while kicking a soccer ball with his kid. But.