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It's not a matter of when sales of Android handsets will surpass Apple, it has already happened:

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100510-713162.html

Now this is from the previous quarter, prior to the launch of the iPhone 4. Although even with the impressive sales numbers we're seeing, it wont be enough to keep Apple rising indefinitely in a rapidly expanding market. Every other manufacturer is fighting for a piece of the smartphone pie. Apple might be able to move 10-15M iPhones in a year, and it is true that HTC likely can't match those sales of a single model but they can release numerous models each selling 1-2M units. Add Motorola, LG, Samsung, Ericson, Asus, Dell, and virtually everyone else doing the same and it's not hard to see why Android will win out in th end.

Apple is heading for a repeat of their early days competing against Microsoft.

You are missing the point. Android sales are spread over numerous manufacturers. There is not one that is profiting and generating sales, per handset, like apple is. Look at all the handsets that have already been sunset, the Eris for example. Also the point is not HTC, in fact they are the only ones that are directly benefiting to the new handsets more that anyone else. To many people on the food chain, HTC, Motorola and VZ. There is not one company selling a single model handset that will match apple in either volume or profit.
 
It might outsell a single android handset but not all of them, as has already been pointed out they already outsold iphones. I just don't care for the UI its so clunky.
 
It might outsell a single android handset but not all of them, as has already been pointed out they already outsold iphones. I just don't care for the UI its so clunky.

Actually marketshare for phones are not in yet for the iPhone 4 and the release of the new Droid X and Evo has only been partially counted. I also believe the numbers you refer to where unit sales in a month just before the iPhone 4 launch.

What will be important are two sets of numbers for all of 2010:

US Market share by mobile platform (Blackberry OS vs iOS vs Android vs rests)
World Market share by mobile platform (Blackberry OS vs iOS vs Symbian vs Android vs Rest).

If Android wants to be a serious contender, I think they need to be on more than just phones, then need their version of an Tablet and iPod touch.

These numbers will also be important when Win Phone 7 is released. IMHO Android isn't that great and I wonder if Android will be able to hold up to Windows Phone 7, or if Windows Phone 7 was just too late to the party. With the exception of Verizion in the US only, I don't think Windows Phone 7 will compete with the iPHone, but will compete with Android and more importantly RIM.

It will also be interesting to see where WebOS users go since that platform is effectively dead. I have no faith in HP doing anything meaningful with Palm's WebOS. I have a strong suspicion WebOS user will go Android since it seem like a lot of them don't have or like ATT.
 
So my neighbor got the droid X and came over to show it off

I literally had to lie to make her feel good. It was so slow, so ugly, and the screen was horrible. It was just as bad as the washed out EVO screen, but the OS was about twice as slow.

Not to mention she already got makeup all over the phone lol...
 
You are missing the point. Android sales are spread over numerous manufacturers. There is not one that is profiting and generating sales, per handset, like apple is. Look at all the handsets that have already been sunset, the Eris for example. Also the point is not HTC, in fact they are the only ones that are directly benefiting to the new handsets more that anyone else. To many people on the food chain, HTC, Motorola and VZ. There is not one company selling a single model handset that will match apple in either volume or profit.

Hardly. I think if you read my post I agree that no single manufacturer is selling a single model in the same volume that Apple is currently doing.

I think you need to look further beyond the current sales numbers and consider the rate at which the market for smart phones is growing, and the pace at which Apple is selling iPhones. Apple is already being left behind. It isn't helping that something like 75% of all iPhone 4 sales were to existing iPhone customers.

Even with the large number of manufacturers competing with each other, at the rate the market is growing and those other manufacturers (perticularly HTC) are growing, Apple will soon loose their 3rd place position.
 
iPhone 4

1.7 million in 3 days
then
antenna problem discovered...
1.3 million in 19 days

Android
activation per day 160k

you wanna do the math here?
 
Droid X has boot loader problems that bricks your device if you load a custom ROM.

Yeah, like your average Iphone/Android user is ever going to root it (jailbreak) much less load a custom ROM.

Also, that info is not all true. The Efuse in the Droid X is part of all TI's OMAP processors. Those processors are also in the original Droid, and we have a tons of custom ROMs for the original Droid.

The problem with loading custom ROMs in the Droid X or the Milestone is the encrypted bootloader, not the efuse present in all the varieties of Droids.
 
What issues? I haven't seen CNN advising Droid owners to buy some duct tape; that admonition was reserved for iPhone 4 owners. And that kind of media coverage means a hell of a lot more than fanboys whining on a forum somewhere.

I know two people with iPhone 4s and like you said, they're both happy. On the other hand, I know about ten people who have decided to skip this one because of the reception issues - and these are people who would have most likely gotten one otherwise, people who were genuinely excited about the phone, until Antennagate, anyway.

Get out of the basement and make some non-nerd friends then.

The avg. joe doesn't give a frak about these antenna issues nor did most hear of it. If this antenna gate was as big as the retarded media portrayed it you could easily walk into a store and pick up an iPhone. The regent street Apple store in London has a 9000-long waiting list. Do you understand that?
 
What issues? I haven't seen CNN advising Droid owners to buy some duct tape; that admonition was reserved for iPhone 4 owners. And that kind of media coverage means a hell of a lot more than fanboys whining on a forum somewhere.

I know two people with iPhone 4s and like you said, they're both happy. On the other hand, I know about ten people who have decided to skip this one because of the reception issues - and these are people who would have most likely gotten one otherwise, people who were genuinely excited about the phone, until Antennagate, anyway.

The thing is that Android covers a broad spectrum of both devices and carriers. The iPhone covers just one device (or two if you consider the obsolete 3GS). So no, I don't see CNN doing anything as the "Android" user base is too fragmented to even worry about, let alone tally any issues they share as a group.

There is only one way to get the iPhone experience....buy the ONE device that they sell. So no, I don't think this will benefit the Android makers all that much. At least not enough to give any one of them an edge over the iPhone juggernaut. Its got too much momentum already....it will still dwarf the other guys. I just saw that Intel is now launching a new smartphone bid to be the next "iPhone killer." I can't imagine what kind of crack they are smoking to think they even have a chance.
 
Get out of the basement and make some non-nerd friends then.

The avg. joe doesn't give a frak about these antenna issues nor did most hear of it. If this antenna gate was as big as the retarded media portrayed it you could easily walk into a store and pick up an iPhone. The regent street Apple store in London has a 9000-long waiting list. Do you understand that?

Im not going to argue that the phone isnt going to sell well but you are crazy if you think the avg joe doesnt know about the issue. Sounds like you live in England and Im not sure what the press coverage is like there but in the US I heard something about the issue on every news source last week. Consumer reports is a very well known reviewer and their refusal to recommend the phone is viewed as a big deal even if it shouldnt be. It was covered extremely well. Anyone I know will know what Im talking about if I bring up the iPhone issue. If you check CNN or watch TV you will know about it. The elevator at my office reports on the news of the day and it was in there too.
 
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futbalguy said:
Get out of the basement and make some non-nerd friends then.

The avg. joe doesn't give a frak about these antenna issues nor did most hear of it. If this antenna gate was as big as the retarded media portrayed it you could easily walk into a store and pick up an iPhone. The regent street Apple store in London has a 9000-long waiting list. Do you understand that?

Im not going to argue that the phone isnt going to sell well but you are crazy if you think the avg joe doesnt know about the issue. Sounds like you live in England and Im not sure what the press coverage is like there but in the US I heard something about the issue on every news source last week. Consumer reports is a very well known reviewer and their refusal to recommend the phone is viewed as a big deal even if it shouldnt be. It was covered extremely well. Anyone I know will know what Im talking about if I bring up the iPhone issue. If you check CNN or watch TV you will know about it. The elevator at my office reports on the news of the day and it was in there too.

The issue has been reported on BBC news, sky news, radio, in newspapers... I'd guess it's been hard to miss really. Plenty of non nerdy folk at work know about it.
 
iPhone 4

1.7 million in 3 days
then
antenna problem discovered...
1.3 million in 19 days

Android
activation per day 160k

you wanna do the math here?

Math is too hard for folks. Let's spell it out.
IPhone in the last 19 days selling at less than 70,000 per day.
Android selling at 160,000 per day.

Still not clear enough? Android selling at over TWICE the rate as the iPhone 4.

Maybe the OP should rethink the title of this thread.
 
I played with it. Thought it was fast. Screen isn't comparible to the iPhone though. If I were stuck on Verizon, I wouldn't mind having this phone.
 
I'm not biased, only being realistic:

Android devices WILL overtake apple sales; it's Open Source meaning that it will introduce new technologies/ideas that have never been seen before.... Several minds are better than one, hence, these new ideas will draw a lot of new customers.

It is the primary OS for heaps of devices, meaning that the more devices that ship with it, the more people use it. The iPhone may still be the most popular smartphone in the market in 10 years, but the iOS will not be the most popular OS, due to Android being available of countless devices.

In the future, the quality of the Android OS will overtake that of iOS, and because you won't be paying much of a premium, will be a lot cheaper and attract more.

My $0.02
 
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dmelgar said:
iPhone 4

1.7 million in 3 days
then
antenna problem discovered...
1.3 million in 19 days

Android
activation per day 160k

you wanna do the math here?

Math is too hard for folks. Let's spell it out.
IPhone in the last 19 days selling at less than 70,000 per day.
Android selling at 160,000 per day.

Still not clear enough? Android selling at over TWICE the rate as the iPhone 4.

Maybe the OP should rethink the title of this thread.

The iPhone 4 isn't available in all of its markets yet. I'm sure things will get better and better for the iP4.
 
The comment about this being similar to windows vs apple is spot on. As more manufacturers ship android capable phones, they'll be more handsets running android than ios4. Though that doesn't mean that a single android phone will outsell the iPhone 4.
 
It's 2010. Who talks to their neighbors anymore?

No kidding. It scares me, but from what I understand people live all around me. I see glimpses of them as I put my garage door down... while i'm still seated in the drivers seat of my car. :p
 
I played with one today and I was not impressed by the screen. Very similar to the EVO.

I literally had to lie to make her feel good. It was so slow, so ugly, and the screen was horrible. It was just as bad as the washed out EVO screen, but the OS was about twice as slow.

Not to mention she already got makeup all over the phone lol...
 
It's 2010. Who talks to their neighbors anymore?

Really? I must be lucky. Live in a great upscale neighborhood. We know at least 10 of our neighbors.

Wife just had a new baby and our neighbors brought us food for the first two weeks after we came home with new baby.

This is down in Florida

I help my neighbors out with "techie stuff" they had their kids over to walk our dog whole my wife was recovering from her C section and I had to be at work early.

But back on topic, Droid X is a little too big fr my taste. Screen is fine but not like the iPhone 4.

I am phone junkie with AT&T and tmobile service. Got my Tmobile branded Samsung Vibrant (aka galaxy S) and it's got a Super OMLED screen. To me the Samsung OMLED is almost on par with the iPhone Retina screen. Just a touch below but Samsung has an excellent screen. The Droid X screen is about 2 notches below both the iPhone 4 and Samsung Galaxy screen.
 
Really? I must be lucky. Live in a great upscale neighborhood. We know at least 10 of our neighbors.

Wife just had a new baby and our neighbors brought us food for the first two weeks after we came home with new baby.

This is down in Florida

I help my neighbors out with "techie stuff" they had their kids over to walk our dog whole my wife was recovering from her C section and I had to be at work early.

But back on topic, Droid X is a little too big fr my taste. Screen is fine but not like the iPhone 4.

I am phone junkie with AT&T and tmobile service. Got my Tmobile branded Samsung Vibrant (aka galaxy S) and it's got a Super OMLED screen. To me the Samsung OMLED is almost on par with the iPhone Retina screen. Just a touch below but Samsung has an excellent screen. The Droid X screen is about 2 notches below both the iPhone 4 and Samsung Galaxy screen.

I agree about the Samsung. Going to see the Captivate tomorrow. I'm on the fence about the IP4. More and more issues seem to be surfacing...... this is what happened to the 1st and 2nd iPhone releases. I know android doesn't do some things as good as the iPhone, but I need something functional without all the hassles.
 
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