The bottom line is this: consumers are tiring of the grief of Windows (no matter how "cheap" the hardware is). Security issues will plague Windows 7 just like previous versions because they're the majority player. They will always be the primary target.
I've been running Win7 beta in VMware Fusion off and on for a couple of months now. You really need some evidence to back that up.
If follow a procedure of creating and Admin/Install account and then a "normal user" account ( something to do on Mac OS X too) then it is fairly locked down on install. You'll get nagged to install an antivirus program at some point. (Apple recommends but have a standing notification alter on the dock/taskbar about it.... but once you do it goes away. )
The defaults for a normal user for "security/notification" are more reasonable. The ads about pops ups every time you do something are gone, but the protection infrastructure they represent are present.
Install Firefox and avoid IE and that whole virus storm thing is way more closer to hype than reality. (although IE 8 is a bit better at tagging bad stuff.)
Windows 7 is what Vista should have been.
There are multitouch , GUI improvements , IPv6 VPN, and a few other IT management features over XP that are going to be harder and harder for folks to pass up.
Apple's free ride of Microsoft giving them a steady stream of comedy material is over. Increasingly, the ads aren't going to match PC user experiences if keep riding the old stereotypes with old problems. Even more so if Microsoft hires someone to run an ad campaign that gets in there and starts swinging back .
And businesses are realizing that Windows XP works just fine for them, and since they don't use the 8,000 features found in Word 2007, what's the point in upgrading to Word 2010 to get 100 more unused features?
the vast majority of OS upgrades in business is when replace machines. There is only so long that folks can hold out on replacements. Especially since most folks have been on lock down during the current economic downturn.
If corp IT start to OK BOMs with Win7 they will start to pop up.
The XP mode helps to if want to run ancient Win stuff.
There has been a looooooooong very open beta cycle with this OS. If an corp IT person doesn't know what Win7 looks like on a machine in their shop they have been hiding under a rock.
Win7 is more of a known quantity at this point than Vista was. ( and more folks were balking at Vista at this point too. Point out that it wasn't ready for prime time and Microsoft saying Bend over and grease up. ). Microsoft isn't completely humbled, but think are somewhat more customer value proposition sensitive this time.
Seriously, how long can you milk a word processor and a spreadsheet app as your cash cow?
An extremely long time. The cash cow metric is revolves around the propreitary format. Microsoft has open that up so it looks open. Still really isn't. When that changes then.... but as long as dribbling out upgrade after upgrade ..... like I said a very long time.
IBM is cashing monster checks on folks addicted to the OS and data formats on the mainframe.
Couple bundling Office discounts that Microsoft does with Windows boxes once that machine gets rolling, it is formidable.
Orgs aren't being sheep anymore but if Microsoft just cuts them some discounts most will fall in line.
Besides there is user utility in that Web version of Office for mobile folks who are out on the road and only have a browser with a modern, faster javascript engine in it. Microsoft may loose some but get more margin with Sharepoint/Collaborative offerings. Documents/Collaboration that make companies more money is worth it. The workflow of folks shipping endless revisions of word/pp/excel docs in email is ... yuck!
Version control people?
My guess: not much longer.
Don't hold your breath. I'm not a huge fan of Office either. However, the depth of how deep they are embedded is huge. Even Apples charts for the calls are distilled out of Excel (by apparently their PR agency).
Even companies that have their own internal Office replacements (Sun and Apple ) have trouble pushing it out without rigid eviction edicts.