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I'm most definitely in the second school of thought. I got into the whole computer thing long after the GUI became the de facto standard, and barely even know a handful of powershell or bash commands. I'm all about getting everything as streamlined as possible because I don't want to have to deal with anything later.
As far as desktops and mobile goes, I'm of the opinion that mobile can eventually replace laptops for a number of tasks, but we're always gonna have a need for desktops OSes for certain things. That said, I don't think everything should be needlessly complicated on the desktops. Just because I can work my way through all the myriad menus and submenus in Windows doesn't mean I think that's the way it should always be done. There are times when you need a little complexity, but simplicity should be what every OS aims for.
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I think Windows 7 on it's own is a great DESKTOP OS. I'm just saying that the average consumer doesn't differentiate between retail bloat and Windows when it comes to user experience. Sorry, but you know this is true.
Average consumers do not want that same experience on their mobile devices. Hell, even geeks dont want that experience. Example: Many geeks bitch about the bloat on Android devices and just want a pure android experience.
You know, most of my experiences with the average user usually don't have them blaming Windows directly. It's always "...but I thought I got a good computer".
But you are right about one thing: geeks, average consumers, whatever, no one wants bloat.