Ming-Chi Kuo Agrees iPhone 8 Will Launch in September With 'Severe' Shortages Due to Delayed Production

[44267547]

I had to wait 6 weeks to get the AirPods.
Now THAT was rediculous!

The AirPods were a unique situation. They were supposed to launch in October 2016, then they mysteriously never launched and Apple announced there was a delay. Then they launched around mid December 2016, factor in all the hype And demand created a large frenzy of consumers ordering them. Apple couldn't keep up with all the demands, hence the back orders. This was not a stable launch.

Also, Apple is notorious for predicting a much later arrival date for a product, they usually arrive much earlier than the delivery window Apple predicts. For example, my AirPods were are also slated to arrive within six weeks, but I received them in less than half the time. It all depended how quickly someone order them when they first launched.

 

[travelsheep]

Will they upgrade the 6S ? Unlikely that they will remove their only phone with headphone jack from their product line

 

[Glideslope]

Steve said this when apple was selling a few million products per year. Now, it sells hundred of millions per quarter.

Actually, Apple sold 71.456 Million iOS/Mac Devices in Q1 2017. Not hundreds of millions per Q.

 

[citysnaps]

Doesn't matter. Just because Apple is selling more units doesn't absolve them from proper planning. If Apple is going to be the leader it has to act like the leader and not a fumbling start up.

Hardly a fumbling startup Apple being able to process customer orders, coordinate daily supply from myriad vendors, manufacture, test, ship, and deliver to customers 800K iPhone orders per day during the release period. Can you name any other company that has that capability?

Or perhaps you might believe Apple can instantaneously tap into additional massive manufacturing infrastructure that doesn't exist? Or should Apple spend billions of $ to create manufacturing infrastructure solely for initial demand, which would then be idle for 8-10 months of the year after demand settles down. Would you be willing to pay an extra, say, $100 per phone to accommodate that cost?

 

[agsystems]

The more I hear the name "iPhone 8", the more I think it would be a stupid name for the upcoming premiere/pro iPhone when it will launch alongside the iPhone 7s. iPhone Pro, iPhone Edition, or iPhone X would be so much better.

the question is - is this a one off so that next year we go back to 2 models - both with OLE or Apple is switching now to 3 models. Other than cost why would anyone want LCD models going forward when everyone including Apple is moving to OLED?

 

[Dave245]

Red tint? Blown way out of proportion. And don't forget that Samsung is making the iPhone's OLED display.

Samsung and LG has done enough to raise the bar by introducing models that outshine their predecessors. And at least on the Samsung model if the fingerprint scanner is too hard to get to you have many other choices that can be used all at the same time. The Note 8 will correct the fingerprint reader situation just like the criticism they received for using cheap plastic. The Note 8 will be the real competition for the next iPhone.

It may sound like I'm a Samsung fanboy but the one thing I hate is their software updating policy plus lag and for that reason I got a iPhone 7 Plus over the Note 7 last year. And with the recent speed test the S8 still can't beat my iPhone 7 Plus. But I will give credit where credit is due; the S8 is the best looking phone on the market hands down followed by the LG G6 and then iPhone. All I'm saying is that Apple needs to step their game up big time. Apple use to have the best design, best materials and best size of any smartphone. The only title Apple holds is the fastest and best updated phone on the market. Even the app stores are on par.

Yea they are but I can't see Apple not checking for themselves. That might be true but Samsung are under a microscope after last years Note issue and I'm also willing to give credit where it's due which is why I've said before that Samsung have a nice design and I really like the bezel less design! I just think it's a bit premature for some of the posts on here to be condemning the iPhone 8 before it's even been released when every year the same thing happens, Samsung release a flagship S phone and or a Note phone and then Apple comes along and release an iPhone that people have been complaining about based on leaks only for it to look a lot better in person than it did in the photos and or schematics and also for it to perform a lot better than the Samsung (the 7Plus is still better than the S8 in real world use age and speed tests)

Don't get me wrong I think Samsung make some nice phones and I've been saying for a few years now how I like the Note phones they do and it would be great if Apple did something similar, I love the idea of being able to take notes with the S pen and have split view and so on. Samsung let themselves down on the software front as you have said and the lack of updates.

 

[bodonnell202]

Or they will integrate those new techs in subsequent generations, but cut off improving this model, much like Apple Watch edition.
Just an uneducated guess.

I tend to agree that the upcoming OLED iPhone is a stop gag to stay competitive the high end Android manufactures until the iPhone 8 release in 2018. As a plus the 2018 iPhone lineup will benefit from the experience Apple gains from the 2017 OLED iPhone.

 

[8692574]

But I'm really talking about the frequency and number of products being announced that are not ready to ship in any quantity in a timely manner. It seems like its almost the norm these days..

As long as I can recall, all the product where like that, small quantities at release and long preorders...

Going back to iBooks.
"Customers have been anticipating the arrival of the blueberry- and tangerine-colored versions since the new iBook was first announced in July. Now, even though shipments are starting to trickle in to retailers, the anticipation is starting to turn into frustration as customers learn the delays won't be fixed as soon as hoped.

Where are the iBooks?
ComputerWare, a large California-based chain of Mac-only stores, has reported receiving shipments of blueberry iBooks, but the shipments are small in relation to the size of the backordered units, said a company spokesperson."

And iPhones.
"The Apple iPhone 3GS has been out of stock in South Africa for almost a month.

The current shortage is being reported in Australia, the USA and most other markets where the 3GS has been launched.

The iPhone 3G experienced a similar supply problem which, we are told, is a simple side-effect of overwhelming demand. The 3G ran out of stock shortly after launch and it took Apple weeks to restore a steady supply internationally. This time it’s worse."

 

[kerrikins]

as Tim's a supply chain guy, I can't help but think this delay is intentional to create demand

Exactly. I'm thinking the phone will sell exclusively at Apple Stores until mass production can occur.

I don't understand this. Low demand = unhappy customers = bad publicity = lost sales.

 

[Shirasaki]

I don't understand this. Low demand = unhappy customers = bad publicity = lost sales.

This is sonewhat apple exclusive. They can cost the waiting and long preorder while not too many companies could do the same.

 

[Wackery]

I don't understand this. Low demand = unhappy customers = bad publicity = lost sales.

they did it with airpods, I don't know why anyone would be surprised

 

[agsystems]

Many people have an iPhone 6S or later, and while the 7s might not be worth upgrading some iPhone 7 owners (I will likely upgrade to the iPhone 7s Plus), the iPhone 8/Edition will still push millions onto the iPhone 7s.

The iPhone 7 is an amazing device, so an iPhone 7s is already exciting.

bingo...I will be looking at the 7s as well

 

[otternonsense]

If they shaved the amateurish camera bump and brought back the headphone jack (industry and customers haven't exactly bought into Apple's "courage"), that thing up there could be a winner. Shortages or not.

 

[satchmo]

I think (hope) we've reached a point in human kind where it's not critical to have the latest phone on launch day.

In the meantime, your existing phone will likely still do the job.

 

[agsystems]

This idea that we'll get the iPhone 7S (or as I call it the iPhone 6SSS) this year as well as a new design is weird. If the new one is super expensive and the 7S is the same design as the 7 and 6, but similarly priced, then the 7S won't be compared favourably to the latest Samsung in the press. Price cut for it maybe?

why not? besides OLED and 3D cameras- they will have most of the same features (A11, OIS on both cameras for plus, etc)

 

[otternonsense]

bingo...I will be looking at the 7s as well

To each their own. Having used the 7 for a few months next to my 6S, it's a total non-update.

 

[Moorepheus]

So, Status Quo for Apple and the number of devices being available at launch. Make it news when they will have enough to meet demand, then that will be news.

 

[oftheheavens]

I think this is the same article from this time the last 10 years just cut/paste and dates changed. There will be plenty of friggin phones and you will be more than able to get them day one if you know where to go. Again, same as last 10 years.

 

[agsystems]

They need to sell out the day they begin production not hire some warehouses. I do not think they have many units laying around to make artificial demand. Every unit will be sold the instant it is finished and shipped ASAP.

exactly - TC subscribes to the 'inventory its evil' doctrine which means they will not overbuild or hold unsold inventory

Also in addition to inventory, they have to manage Wall Street - let's say they sale 100M on Q1 - guess how many more units will be expected next year?

 

[malexandria]

the problem is, Apple is no longer the only good/great phone available and it can't continue act like it is. You have the Galaxy S8 this month, I'm assuming the new Google Pixel in May will be a beast. Then the iPhone 8. Only difference is, this fall people will actually be able to buy those 2 phones.

Assuming past is prologue, this thing will sell out on day one. New models won't be available to X-Mas and those will sell out right away. It'll be next March/April before you can get one of these without jumping through hoops. By then the clock will be ticking on the NEXT cycle of iPhones and Androids.

They continue their recent pattern of not being able to produce enough quantity of ANYTHING. Eventually even the most die hard fanboy just says screw it, I'll give this new phone a try. I'm not a fan of android - I hate it, but I'm ready to switch and try something NEW. It probably won't happen this cycle and I'll keep my 6s but the 8 needs to be something radically different then what we've been getting.

 

[macduke]

It's so strange how Steve Jobs stopped announcing products at MacWorld because he said it made no sense for Apple to rush products around someone else's schedule. Thus began the era of the Apple Special Event where Apple only announced product when it was presumably ready to announce and ship product.

Maybe TC didn't get that memo. Time after time he announces product that Apple can't ship in quantity a timely manner after announcing it. Why does Apple do this when they control the announcement schedule? All it does is frustrate customers and kill impulsive purchases. Of late Apple's product announcement are really more like pre-announcements. Kinda reminds of the boy who cried wolf.

Because Cook is an operations guy. They look at the numbers and see more sales if they launch in autumn before Christmas. If they launched earlier in the year, newer Android phones would have more time to react to new features and catch up. People buying around the holidays think "This is the latest new iPhone. This is what everyone wants, and it was recently upgraded, so it makes sense to buy one now." That being said, they could probably be a little more flexible in their launch window every year. Maybe if they shot for August and sometimes didn't launch until October it would be ok. I also wonder if the iPhone upgrade program factors into this now and makes it more difficult to go off of a strict 12 month cycle?

 

[sigma7]

i am in no hurry, i am fully satisfied with my iPhone 7 Plus
View attachment 697327

 

[ryanwarsaw]

exactly - TC subscribes to the 'inventory its evil' doctrine which means they will not overbuild or hold unsold inventory

Also in addition to inventory, they have to manage Wall Street - let's say they sale 100M on Q1 - guess how many more units will be expected next year?

so far he has led the most profitable company known to man kind so we can only hope he exceeds Wall Street's expextations.

 

[Urban Joe]

Unless it has a radically new version of iOS offering a completely new user experience, what difference does it make?

Still not sure why its so hard for Apple to do OLED screens given its been a staple on Android phones.....

 

[Jsameds]

i am in no hurry, i am fully satisfied with my iPhone 7 Plus
View attachment 697327

Bit too modern for me. I'm still satisfied with this.