Ming-Chi Kuo Cuts iPhone XR Lifecycle Shipment Estimates by 30 Million

[Baymowe335]

That would be interesting. It would surely pivot Apple's business to more services which IMO would be more sustainable because it feels like the hardware side of things is running out of steam.

I love when people totally dismiss hardware just because unit sales growth is only up slightly. Ready for some facts?

Does $166B in iPhone sales (a record and 18% growth y/y) in FY2018 sound like "running out of steam?" To me, it sounds like 18% growth on an ENORMOUS business. Do you understand how insane that is? 18% growth on a business that did $142 BILLION in sales the prior year? LOL!

Sure, Apple is growing services even faster at 24% y/y and that is the idea for ceasing to report unit sales.

 

[Mackinjosh]

Can you point to the figures please?

The same guy who said they're cutting production is the same guy who said the XS and Max were huge sales disappointments in China and that the XR already outsold the Max and XS combined.
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As someone who is fairly new to Apple products I found it appalling a new iPhone doesn't come with a fast charger or even ear buds. My galaxy came with both. When looking at iPhones this past weekend after buying a dongle for headphones and a fast charger it was another $100 Or so. They need to stop being stingy, they nickle and dime you to death.
Dongle me this dongle me that there goes another few hundred lining the pockets of the fat cats.

They actually come with ear buds, but your point is a good one. Apple screws people over as hard as they possibly can with what they include.

 

[imola.zhp]

And then Apple will report the biggest holiday quarter ever and all these so-called analysts will say but I meant the next quarter will be bad. With Apple it’s always the future that’s bad.

Now that Apple has stopped disclosing iPhone sales, we'll really never know. Convenient for them...

 

[hypertoast]

I am beginning to think they should just bite the bullet and bundle the Airpods into the flagship models. Give that nice Apple experience right out of the box and watch sales soar. It would be an end to most of the dongle headphone jack complaints.

Not sure if that would be smart or not. However AAPL does have more than a few options it could put into play if it had to. On the bright side for consumers it is highly doubtful AAPL will try to raise prices next year. It isn't just AAPL down today as well. I guess the next metric aside from speculation is does AAPL beat it's own guidance next earnings?

The next wave of products might be much better buys if they get the usual updates and the price points remain the same.
I think things like the new mini base model having 128 is getting a little bit out of line. Keep the top end prices high so people can spend whatever they choose. On the lower end base model side just make the specs beefier.

Lets go conservative:
200K units.
Bundled with AirPods retailing $159

 

[2GoldFish]

I love when people totally dismiss hardware just because unit sales growth is only up slightly. Ready for some facts?

Does $166B in iPhone sales (a record and 18% growth y/y) in FY2018 sound like "running out of steam?" To me, it sounds like 18% growth on an ENORMOUS business.

Sure, Apple is growing services even faster at 24 y/y and that is the idea for ceasing to report unit sales.

In 2018 Q1, Apple achieved 12% of year-over-year growth.

However, Apple's own guiding for 2019 Q1 of $91b (Mid point of $89-93) suggests that they are only expecting a 3% year-over-year growth.

I am sure this would indicate to someone that Apple may be "running out of steam".

 

[DakotaGuy]

This is such an inferior product to the XS/Max.

Not only is is an inferior product, but it costs almost as much. I have no idea why anyone wouldn't spend a little more if they are already spending at least $750 for this half baked XR to get a much better XS or XS Max. Apple is trying to trick people into thinking this phone has a better screen than an LCD by calling it "Liquid Retina" but people are not falling for it. It will fail almost as bad the 5c did.

 

[512ke]

Uh-oh. Almost looks like the XR is going to be a repeat of the iPhone 5c.

As a shareholder, I really hope it's as successful as the 5C.

"...calling the world's second most popular smartphone behind iPhone 5s a "flop" isn't just a radical opinion, it's a lie." APPLEINSIDER

https://appleinsider.com/articles/1...indows-phone-and-every-android-flagship-in-q4

 

[imola.zhp]

Yep. This is pretty much it. For a budget phone, its pretty pricey. Alot of people will probably bite the bullet and swallow the added cost of getting the XS, believing its a much better phone.

If Apple wants a piece of the budget market, they need another SE.

I got the XR myself btw. That product red one is just the best looking phone they have come up with in years, and the battery life is amazing.

We picked up an XR, all black, for one of my mother-in-laws two weekends ago. Beautiful phone, my first interaction with anything X other than a few friends with X's in passing. I helped her set a few things up so it was the most interaction I've had with one. It made me want one, but my wallet wont let me do it. $789 was INSANE for my 7+ but Verizon gave me $650 for a very used 6 trade-in. Then the following Monday morning a co-worker asked me a question about setting up work email on his new X or XS, I didn't ask which it was, but using the two back to back made me want one even more. I'm still hopeful for a last-minute holiday promotion but if not I'll just keep my mint 7+ for another year.

 

[falainber]

This is a good news. It sounds like Apple have no choice but to drop the prices.

 

[Spizike9]

I think it is somewhat of a comment on the smartphone market overall too. The market is essentially saturated, and people are holding onto devices longer since speed / software compatibility / and features have more or less leveled off.

Things have leveled off yet prices have skyrocketed

 

[Bug-Creator]

Not only is is an inferior product, but it costs almost as much. I have no idea why anyone wouldn't spend a little more if they are already spending at least $750 for this half baked XR to get a much better XS or XS Max.

Price gap between Xs and Xr is 300€ around here and I would have to choose between to small 64GB or even more pricey 256GB.

AppleCare is also higher on the Xs.

Little more my ..........

 

[Baymowe335]

In 2018 Q1, Apple achieved 12% of year-over-year growth.

However, Apple's own guiding for 2019 Q1 of $91b (Mid point of $89-93) suggests that they are only expecting a 3% year-over-year growth.

I am sure this would indicate to someone that Apple may be "running out of steam".

Make sure you are exactly right on your facts, because I know them better than anyone here.

In Q1 2018, Apple had just increased prices on iPhone significantly, so the revenue increase there was no surprise.

Apple GUIDED for $84-$87B in FY2018 Q1, the ACTUAL was $88.29B. Since we don't know the actuala for FY2019 Q1, we have to say that they are guiding for 6.5% (not 3%) revenue growth, Apples to Apples. This is midpoint of their FY2018Q1 guidance to midpoint FY2019Q1 guidance.

You can't compare actuals to guidance. You can compare guidance to guidance or actuals to actuals, which we don't have yet.

If the actual in FY 2019 Q1 comes in higher than $93B (likely since Apple always lowballs guidance) there could be significant growth. Remember, we are talking huge numbers, so even 6.5% revenue growth is huge. As the numbers get larger, the % growth increases become harder and harder.

 

[KeepCalmPeople]

So:
The increase in units sold is slowing year over year.
The average selling price is increasing.
The profit per unit is increasing, thus the overall increase in profit.
Services revenue (iCloud etc.) is continuing to increase.

To me, it is clear that Apple no longer wants to report unit sales as it detracts from their narrative, and has to-date been a key metric in the press as an indicator of the company's success.
Will things come to a head and Apple be forced to produce cheaper iPhone models, as year-on-year sales actually decrease?
Or will the increases in revenue and profit in other areas offset the slowing pace of consumer iPhone replacement?

 

[Mackinjosh]

Not only is is an inferior product, but it costs almost as much. I have no idea why anyone wouldn't spend a little more if they are already spending at least $750 for this half baked XR to get a much better XS or XS Max. Apple is trying to trick people into thinking this phone has a better screen than an LCD by calling it "Liquid Retina" but people are not falling for it. It will fail almost as bad the 5c did.

If it fails as badly as the 5C did, what's that say about the XS and Max which its going to outsell?

 

[StevieD100]

$40B off the stock price! All on a rumour.
Christmas has come early to the hordes of APPL Shorters.

On the bright side, now is a time to invest/buy back a lot of stock.

 

[max.ine]

For me even the iPhone 6 was too big. I have an iPhone XR and I find it ridiculously big. If there was an iPhone SE2 with the same specs of the iPhone XR, but a smaller screen, I would buy it, even at the same price of the XR.

In that case, I stand corrected. I just don’t personally understand it, but I appreciate the demand and always welcome smaller models like the SE... provided Apple is willing to manufacture them. If it was up to me, there’d be an SE2 for you guys.

 

[Somian]

For me even the iPhone 6 was too big. I have an iPhone XR and I find it ridiculously big. If there was an iPhone SE2 with the same specs of the iPhone XR, but a smaller screen, I would buy it, even at the same price of the XR.

Same here…

I had an SE before, which was a good size but got an XS after my SE stopped backing up to iTunes because the USB port partially stopped working and Apple wanted $279 for the repair. I would totally exchange this for the same model, just iPhone 4 size.

 

[Squeak825]

It only affects a small, unfortunate portion of the userbase, at least as far as we know. If I had to poorly explain, it’s because OLED screens primarily only use the red and green lights to control brightness, so it flashes the blue light at a high, unnoticeable frequency to give off the impression that the blue lights are of the same brightness as the red and green ones. Normally this isn’t a problem, but in the case of the iPhone X line, it’s abnormally low—something like 220Hz, which on most devices is far into the thousands.

Sorry, that is not accurate. LCD screens dim the screen by regulating the voltage that is applied (since it is one single light source). You could do that with OLED's, but these types of displays lose picture quality at lower voltages, so to keep the display nice, you have to keep it at full voltage.

So, to appear like it is less bright, they instead flash the screen on and off a certain amount of times a second, and the width of the "on" part determines the appearance of how bright it is. A trick on the eyes.

The problem is that Apple's implementation has the number of times it does the flicker low enough that it is on the edge of human eye perception, and some people pick up on that flicker.

You can see it in play in this video, taken in slo-mo (start at around 1:13)

 

[Packers1958]

The only reason Im going with this phone is because the LCD screen doesn’t blast your eyeballs out with PWM like the OLED screens. Total fail on Apple’s part to pit a screen on XS and Max that gives people headaches. Unbelievable

Why is it Apple's fault that you get headaches with OLED screens? It's not a total fail. I have no issue with OLED screens, and I hope they continue to use OLED screens in the future. The are vastly superior to those washed out LCD screens.

 

[falainber]

$40B off the stock price! All on a rumour.
Christmas has come early to the hordes of APPL Shorters.

On the bright side, now is a time to invest/buy back a lot of stock.

Some people said "it was a time" when the stock was at $205. They were wrong. What makes you think that you are not wrong too? It would be even better to invest in AAPL when it's at, say, $130, right?

 

[paffko]

Where is my iPhone SE2?? Same size, bigger screen. Frameless, with dual camera. Thanks!

 

[9081094]

When you compare the XR to actual budget phones like the Pocophone f1, it’s shocking that Apple charge at least $749 for this device. I dread to think about how much iPhones will cost in 10 years time!

Over here the iPhone XR starts at € 859 and to consider that you can buy flagship devices from any other brands with more capacity, better camera, OLED for far less. Even considering that Android today is as good and in many cases even better as iOS (freedom and openness + better services like google maps, voice recognition and lots more). I don’t know what’s apple’s plan and I certainly don’t get the slow evolving speed of their soft-, hardware. If Apple wants to become the Gucci and Prada from the high tech industry, it better gets its act together.

I just dumped my Apple TV in favor of my LG’s webos 4.0 and don’t regret it. It’s offering all the capabilities and more and talks nice to all my devices.

I’m only willing to get into a walled garden again, if that walled garden is up to date and evolving like the rest of the industry. If it’s more expensive, it has to give me a reason to be more expensive. Apple has proven these last 7+ years not to be thrustworthy partner for me: time for a divorce.

 

[max.ine]

Sorry, that is not accurate. LCD screens dim the screen by regulating the voltage that is applied (since it is one single light source). You could do that with OLED's, but these types of displays lose picture quality at lower voltages, so to keep the display nice, you have to keep it at full voltage.

So, to appear like it is less bright, they instead flash the screen on and off a certain amount of times a second, and the width of the "on" part determines the appearance of how bright it is. A trick on the eyes.

The problem is that Apple's implementation has the number of times it does the flicker low enough that it is on the edge of human eye perception, and some people pick up on that flicker.

You can see it in play in this video, taken in slo-mo (start at around 1:13)

Thanks for your correction. My goal was to simplify as much as possible from memory at the expense of being perhaps slightly off. I work in music, so I’m very familiar with PWM and what it encompasses, but you did do a much better job explaining the nitty-gritty than me.

 

[buststyles]

Xr is overpriced with this outdated screen, but then again, which Apple product is not overpriced this year?

Because the screen is not at ppi that you deem to be modern? This screen looks better that my higher ppi 7 Plus( with a recently replaced screen by apple so no aged of the display is not a factor. Everybody is focused on the cost of the Xr based on screen specs and not looking into the cost of making the LCD panel edge as close as possible, A12, FaceID, etc that also contributes to cost.

 

[actcyclist]

Looking at the Huawei Mate 20, the design of the iPhone Xr makes more sense to me. Apple seems to have gone after the Chinese market with this iPhone, but failed.