Ming-Chi Kuo: iPhone X Production Currently Just <10K Units Per Day, Blush Gold Color May Launch Later

[Chupa Chupa]

Yeah getting a 2017 model in 2018 would stink so bad I might be tempted to keep what I've got or get the cheaper IPhone 8 Plus which may end up being more optimal for most of my uses and budget anyway. I won't really know the best course of action until tomorrow. But these rumors are so wacky and unsettling. But it's always interesting to read them, which is why I am here.

Yup. Especially when it's a $1K+ 2017 model. Tomorrow will tell me some things... like whether the X's radio will be bi or tri-fircated like the 7 or there will be just one "world" model. Hoping that is the case because I'm not paying $1K for a less robust TMob version.

Unfortunately, we'll have to set our alarms for 2:55am to find out true availability. But if the system reports "Delivers in 3-4 months." I'll cry for getting up so early for nothing then bail quicker than a Dodger's fan at the top of the 7th.

 

[Brian Clifford]

Purely on an anecdotal basis it seems to me that most customers of the new MacBook & MacBook Pro models chose the Space Grey colour rather than the Silver which doesn't seem to have caused problems. It's a shame the new iPhone has so many different development and market variables to cater for sufficient colourway availability to meet demand on release.

A little more concerning for me though is the reference to "production problems". It's a vague enough phrase to make me ask what type of problems?

 

[OldSchoolMacGuy]

Pre-order already placed for a top-spec phone on release day. Looking forward to it.

 

[Tom2893]

I just want the lowest storage iPhone X in black.

 

[iPhonefan200]

I don't think the macrumors readers that are dumping their stock because of reports of delayed iPhones are having much impact on the market. Besides, hedge much?

Read other reports, its exactly whats happening. Many sources make these claims every year in hope it will manipulate sellers to sell so the corporations who are invested in Apple can buy up and sell when the stock is high post launch. It sounds farfetched because it pretty much fails every year but its not unknown. read around. The Wall Street Journal and so on will all bump of this rumour tonight

 

[consultio]

Assuming production started August 1, 2017 and maintained 9,500 units per day according to this report... Thats 369,000 units to date.

Right, hopefully this is just to drum up hype, otherwise it looks like it might be a very delayed release. I can't imagine releasing this with so few units.

 

[CGoodlet26]

Demand will still outweigh supply, but usually Apple racks up 3-4M in pre-orders the first weekend a new iPhone goes on sale. Assuming the device doesn't go on sale til end of month (at the earliest), Apple will have ~ 600K in supply. We should also assume that supply will only increase and not decrease over the coming weeks, as they refine the manufacturing process.

Let's not forget with the 'new' 8 and 8 Plus, most consumers will still go for these devices. While us forum goers can more easily justify spending 1K on an iPhone, most consumers find $650 already very expensive, and likely won't go for this more expensive device. Estimating 3-4M of pre-orders, divided by all 3 devices equally (which is still unlikely to assume 1/3 of consumers will spend 1K on an iPhone), we're looking at a demand of 1-1.5M for the new Phone for pre-order weekend. That still outstrips 600K in supply, but it's not quite as bleak as this rumor is making it out to be.

I will be very curious to see how many 8/8+ models are preordered vs the X edition. While the majority of us on MacRumors are opting for the X edition I feel we underestimate the demand of the 8/8+. Can’t wait to see shipping dates and some preorder numbers

 

[GadgetBen]

Can’t they push those elves to work faster?

 

[nightcap965]

I may just end up going iPhone 7S or 8 (whatever they decide to call it), if the iPhone X's are going to be extremely delayed. I don't want to be waiting until next year for a new phone. I'm also a bit skeptical of the gigantic screen on the iPhone X, as I like to use my phone one-handed a lot. The top left corner is barely reachable with one hand on the 4.7" screen as it is.

I'm thinking the same thought. I'll sure I can rationalize it as a smart decision.

Bottom line: I badly need a new phone. My 6+ doesn't support Extended Range LTE, and I'm getting 2G service where I live.

 

[DevNull0]

What do you expect? New production method and new color plus delay with Touch ID.

I expect them to work out the kinks in a new production method before moving their flagship product onto it.

And I expect them to not screw around with Touch ID on a flagship product until they figure out what they're doing.

The fact that that a new color causes difficulties for a company like Apple tells you how poorly they are organized.

 

[Chupa Chupa]

In comparison, did we get any numbers on how many Jet Black models were available at launch last year?

Apple doesn't release sales numbers by model, just as a product line.

 

[Wags]

If true, 10k per day isn't a supply constraint, it's a model that can't be released. If you extrapolate out, with their starting production in the last 30 days, that's 300k units for launch. There is no way they would offer it for sale if that's what they're sitting on now.

Maybe with 3m units on hand, but then they'd need to be producing ~1m units per day to satisfy what I expect will be initial demand of 30m units in the first 30 days.

Seems to be the ' Apple Way ' for some time now. Especially not producing the obvious high demand for certain models

 

[Smartass]

Well if Tim stopped screwing around with foxconn workers, maybe there wouldn't be any production delays!

 

[kdarling]

Due to component supply constraints, we estimate current production of the OLED iPhone at less than 10k units per day

I wonder which component(s) ?

Notched display? 3D transmitter / receiver?

 

[Chupa Chupa]

Read other reports, its exactly whats happening. Many sources make these claims every year in hope it will manipulate sellers to sell so the corporations who are invested in Apple can buy up and sell when the stock is high post launch. It sounds farfetched because it pretty much fails every year but its not unknown. read around. The Wall Street Journal and so on will all bump of this rumour tonight

It's farfetched because it is. Individual owners have zero effect on the market. They don't own enough stock even collectively. It's the institutions -- pension funds, mutuals, hedge, ETFs that control the market and most of their trading is programmed.

The retail operations do try to generate "reports" to get individuals to churn their portfolio but that is so they can generate trading fee cash flow. That is part of their business model.

 

[Cougarcat]

I wonder which component(s) ?

Notched display? 3D transmitter / receiver?

Previous rumors pointed to the OLED display.

 

[kdarling]

I don't know why I didn't think of that. wow. Thats a deal breaker for me. I assume the new iPhone will light up your face to scan it or something. very obnoxious. Lets see what apple has to say tomorrow, but man that is a deal breaker for me.

These kind of things use infra-red light. Not visible light.

Read this short, but very interesting, article to learn more:

https://docs.microsoft.com/en-us/wi...experiences/windows-hello-face-authentication

 

[44267547]

KG has been wrong before, namely his info that the bottom 1/5 of the screen was going to be functional and not part of the app use itself

All of these analysts and/or supply chain insiders have been wrong before. It's not about having a perfect score, it's the consistency in his accurate predictions. Especially over the years. And Kuo has also been fairly reliable when making predictions Throughout the year as well.

 

[dspdoc]

Make it seem scarce.

That makes people want it more, and ultimately more forgiving of an exorbitant price tag.

I was thinking the same thing. There is a trend here. Apple does this every single release and honestly I don't know how morally they get away with doing it. Creating this hype by underproducing seems extremely shady. People surely aren't this stupid to believe every single release date Apple is in short supply of production?

 

[Adam&Eve]

Funny how it's always a issue with some color and hard to make before launch. Could it be just to hype it a bit more.
But I can't wait to get a black one.

 

[MrGimper]

Kuo is always right because Kuo hedges their bets and covers every eventuality. One day it has face recognition, next day it doesn’t. One day it has Touch ID, the next it doesn’t and the next it’s on the back of the device and then under the glass. Next it’s OLED and the following day it isn’t. Not hard to be right when you do that all year!!

 

[Keirasplace]

Stock manipulation from the master PR con man continues... Tomorrow your words will be worth nothing Kuo, so enjoy your short selling and having your MARKS do their little dance for you...

 

[Darryl.Jenks]

the first thing that comes to mind when 'blush gold' is mentioned...

Is that a 1st generation RX-7 with the 12A engine?

 

[DarwinOSX]

Make it seem scarce.

That makes people want it more, and ultimately more forgiving of an exorbitant price tag.

No that's silly.
It's not necessary for one thing. Demand will be through the roof as it is and Apple wants to make as many $$$ as they can as fast as they can like any other for profit company.
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BLEAK news!

It's not news. It's rumor.

 

[kdarling]

Kuo is always right because Kuo hedges their bets and covers every eventuality. One day it has face recognition, next day it doesn’t. One day it has Touch ID, the next it doesn’t and the next it’s on the back of the device and then under the glass. Next it’s OLED and the following day it isn’t. Not hard to be right when you do that all year!!

UI stuff changes all the time, so he can be forgiven (and ignored) for much of that kind of thing.

As for hardware, he's going by his sources inside parts suppliers and the iPhone factories. Depending on where his sources work, they can be very accurate or just rumor repeaters.

However, we know from the Samsung trials that Apple execs often make last minute decisions. Such is also the basis of their claim why they need Chinese factory workers who can be woken up in the middle of the night to modify production.

So it makes perfect sense that he would earlier this year say that under-display TouchId was planned. But then when by mid-summer it was clear that the tech would not be ready in time, he reported the change in Apple's plans as seen by suppliers and factories.