Ming-Chi Kuo: iPhone X Production Currently Just <10K Units Per Day, Blush Gold Color May Launch Later

[chr1s60]

One of the few guarantees in life is that there will be some sort of shortage of at least one phone model when a new iPhone is released.

 

[HallStevenson]

Customers have two high end phones - the X and the Note8. One of them isn't available for ages and the other is. Your phone contract is up. What do you do?

Oh, I don't know .... keep using your current phone ?

 

[joeblow7777]

Let's do the math on this. If even 5 million units sold in the first week (a low estimate, but factoring the high price and some sales going to the other models), it would take over 500 days or about 1.5 years of production at the current rate to fill the first week of sales!

If this is the case, they could not be releasing the product this year or else they started production during the days of the 6s.

 

[MrGimper]

Someone should invent a drinking game where everytime the phrase "KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo" is mentioned we take a shot.

At who?

 

[mdellepi]

If true, 10k per day isn't a supply constraint, it's a model that can't be released. If you extrapolate out, with their starting production in the last 30 days, that's 300k units for launch. There is no way they would offer it for sale if that's what they're sitting on now.

Maybe with 3m units on hand, but then they'd need to be producing ~1m units per day to satisfy what I expect will be initial demand of 30m units in the first 30 days.

Exactly...if I remember correctly they sold 10 million iPhone 6 (the last big redesign) in their first weekend alone...at the current rate they would need almost 3 (THREE) years to produce that number :|

 

[michael31986]

So they only release a red iPhone late in the cycle to cancel it for new releases. Wtf.

 

[MacPDiddy]

If Ming-Chi Kuo says something, you better believe it. Remember when he first said FaceID will replace TouchID and nobody believed. Now everyone agrees with him.

Oh, please. You DO realize a broken clock is right twice a day...

 

[Superhappytree]

Wish Apple held the keynote on the 6th. They would have avoided all of these latest 'leaks' and this constant over analysing.

 

[SwissGuy93]

I call BS on this number. Yes, the iPhone 8 will be heavily constrained but under 10k for all SKUs would result in >1k per SKU per day. That is just not feasible. We have ten days until they should be sent out (if they really ship on the 22nd), and that would only result in 100'000 units. KGI once said that there would be 2M at launch. To get to that number at the current rate they would need 200 days.

 

[ck2875]

I really want my hands on that Blush Gold color.

Based on the file names of the 3 wallpapers exclusive to the X:

• Aura_Silver-granite.jpg
• Aura_Gold-granite.jpg
• Aura_Black-granite.jpg

My guess would be that the colours are going to be called Black Granite, Silver Granite, and Gold Granite for the X model, but who knows.

 

[bgraham]

Basically a tip to everyone even if you're not planning to own this phone:

BUY IT. And then resell it.

 

[iPhonefan200]

I call BS on this number. Yes, the iPhone 8 will be heavily constrained but under 10k for all SKUs would result in >1k per SKU per day. That is just not feasible. We have ten days until they should be sent out (if they really ship on the 22nd), and that would only result in 100'000 units. KGI once said that there would be 2M at launch. To get to that number at the current rate they would need 200 days.

The Number is illogical! It would mean they would be running into iPhone 10 before they catch up. He’s just wanting clicks because the events in 26 hours

 

[OllyW]

I'll almost believe it. Apple is pushing the iPhone X upscale. What better way to justify a $1,000+ price tag than to limit the number of phones. Maybe that's the "one more thing" moment for the keynote. "By the way, in honor of the iPhone's 10th anniversary there will only be 10 million individually numbered iPhone Xs released. Once they are gone there will be no more. Get your preorders in now."

It would take at least two and three quarter years to make them all at less than 10,000 a day.

 

[simonmet]

The Blush Gold is a crap color, so I won't order that. So the line will be shorter on that one.

How many were you planning to buy?

 

[webbuzz]

Highly doubt his numbers are true.

 

[questionmark32]

<10K/day. Okay, but when did the production start? Last month? 3 months ago?

 

[Cougarcat]

I'm conflicted, I want an iPad Pro 12.9, a new iPhone, but I don't know if I should consider last years 7 Plus Jet Black or this years iPhone 8 Plus Jet Black or iPhone X.

First world problems?

Buy the iPad, skip the iPhone. Get this year's X next year when it's cheaper and you can actually buy one.

 

[ck2875]

Does anyone actually like that "blush" color? blehh.. Reminds me of toe nail clippings. yuck

If your toe nails are that colour of gold, you might want to visit a podiatrist.

 

[iPhonefan200]

Personally think he means 100,000 a day and forgot one 0. Don’t worry we all do it

 

[WatchFromAfar]

I'd prefer them to delay launch than to announce something that won't be available to most people for months.

But since the iPhone was introduced in January 2007 even September/October is pushing this whole "Anniversary" shtick a little far without further delays.

 

[lazard]

another big payday for ebay flippers.

 

[OllyW]

Personally think he means 100,000 a day and forgot one 0. Don’t worry we all do it

That would make a lot more sense and would still mean there would be shortages at first.

 

[iPhonefan200]

That would make a lot more sense and would still mean there would be shortages at first.

Yeah to me 100,000 is more realistic than 10! It would mean a catch up within first 5 weeks which is typical for an iPhone launch. If apple was producing 10k a day they it would cause a massive publicity scandal

 

[Carlos22Dayday]

Man Kim Jong-un has been coming in pretty frequently with those details. I highly doubt it's 10k units a day. No way a company with so much demand will release a product with low volumes.

 

[springsup]

If true, 10k per day isn't a supply constraint, it's a model that can't be released. If you extrapolate out, with their starting production in the last 30 days, that's 300k units for launch. There is no way they would offer it for sale if that's what they're sitting on now.

Maybe with 3m units on hand, but then they'd need to be producing ~1m units per day to satisfy what I expect will be initial demand of 30m units in the first 30 days.

This product just seems to be a catalogue of failures. I’m concerned about Apple’s future.

If this launch bombs as hard as I think it will, Tim Cook is going to finally start feeling the heat. He doesn’t have a lot of product accomplishments since taking over as CEO.

Really, ask yourself if you’d rather have the iPhone X or a Samsung S8. It’s a lot closer than its ever been. If it wasn’t for iOS, personally, I wouldn’t be buying Apple hardware; its fallen way behind par.