The OP has some valid points, however I do think people will get a watch on April 24th, a good amount probably. It just depends specifically on what model and band you ordered and what time you ordered it.
I have a feeling the model with the most range of delivery dates will be the Space Grey Sport as it is most popular. The sooner you pre-ordered, the better.
My theory:
If you ordered within the first five minutes and got a range 4/24-5/8, I am pretty sure you can expect a delivery on April 24th. If you ordered 15 minutes after pre-order and received a range of 4/24-5/8, chances of a 24th delivery start to go down, maybe the 25th or 27th?. 30 minutes after Pre-order start and 4/24-5/8 date, chances very low for 24th delivery date, more likely April 30th. Over 30 minutes after Pre-order and 4/24-5/8 delivery, you are lucky it didn't slip to 5/8-5/13 or 4-6 weeks. Chances are extremely low you get delivery on April 24th, more likely April 30th or later, most likely first week of May.
All depends on model and time ordered.
Other factors; Canceled orders.