New imac on March 7?

[xxBURT0Nxx]

Thank you... just because the buyers guide says it's due for an update doesn't mean we will see one. You have to look at the hardware that is available. If Ivy Bridge was released a week ago, yes we could say they are due for a refresh any day now.

Since we are still awaiting the arrival of Ivy Bridge, that is a much better predictor of when we will see a refresh. At the very least, we know we won't see a refresh UNTIL we see Ivy Bridge. When we have a concrete release for IVB, we can start to put together a more accurate release of new mac products.

Until then, consider late April/ early May. NOT in a few days on March 7...

and, if we are going to go off of the buyers guide, and what needs to be "refreshed the most" shouldn't we expect to see another Mac Pro update before the iMac? Yeah, another reason the buyers guide is just that, a buyers guide, nothing more.

 

[beosound3200]

That is not a confirmed release date, the title even has a question mark at the end, come on now.

And if you go back, I said that they are likely to be out at the end of April/ early May. The only thing I was saying is there is pretty much no way that new iMacs will be released on March 7, like the title suggests, and all of these people saying that it can happen because apple gets access to intel parts before everyone else.. absolutely ridiculous and not true.

And i'm not saying the buyers guide isn't useful, but to say that it's more reliable to look at a buyers guide that says, it's been "x" days since the last refresh than looking at when intel or amd/nvidia are releasing their latest hardware. Apple doesn't use a release schedule on a certain amount of days or months, they have to have hardware to upgrade so for anyone to think we will see an update before ivy bridge, you are crazy to be honest. You think apple is going to release some half refresh with the same processors as last year because OMG, it's been 15 days past our normal refresh cycle... NO THAT'S NOT HOW IT WORKS!!!!

And also, mbp's really weren't refreshed at the end of the year. It was more of a price drop/restructure and they added one new CPU to the highest end BTO option, so I am still doubting we will see an iMac refresh before a MBP refresh.

^^ beosound3200....

I didn't say that hardware definitely coincides with a refresh, but in this circumstance, it's much more predictable than a buyers guide.

iMac was refreshed on July 27, 2010. When sandy bridge was released in january, it would have been a very short refresh cycle, so it makes sense for apple to wait until May to release a new refresh. However, in February, apple DID release a refresh to the macbook pros with Sandy bridge.

Still don't see any evidence that apple is going to release the imac update before the mbp update...

of course it isnt confirmed, april 8th is?
we here are all hoping for it to be announced on march 6th which means green light for all the oems to release their refreshes which in the end means those refreshes would in any case happen earlier than they would happen if IB was released on april 8th. maybe march 6th is really the announcement day, and april 8th mass availability, but only time will tell.

and why did apple release macbooks practically immediately after SB launch? because they have their 'internal product cycle' which you constantly refuse to acknowledge.

macbooks were 'refreshed' with the new gpu also. i agree that that wasnt a real refresh, but theres a problem:
if new macbooks are all based on quad core processors, they could possibly be released prior to macs, but if any of them uses dual core (low end 13') they will be released when dual core ivy bridge becomes available which is later in the year. i think the latter option will be the case.

bottom line, nobody sane thinks that imacs will come without new hardware, we are only discussing here when that new hardware becomes available and how long it will take apple to release new imacs with that hardware.

----------

Look at it this way:

The buyer's guide tells you what Apple would like to do. Hardware availability tells you what they will actually do. They can't make a new device appear out of mid-air if their suppliers aren't ready, no matter how much they would like to.

Someone should run some standard deviations on the buyer's guide to get a better sense. Look at the Mac Mini numbers.. they're all over the place. They were ~230 a couple years in a row, then jumped to 400. Mac Pro is consistently seeing longer periods, from 280 to 420 to 510, and has already passed the previous record by over 10%. iPod Classic was roughly every year.. until suddenly it wasn't.

The buyer's guide is a great history lesson, but ultimately a poor predictor.

and in imacs case? learn from the past...

----------

Thank you... just because the buyers guide says it's due for an update doesn't mean we will see one. You have to look at the hardware that is available. If Ivy Bridge was released a week ago, yes we could say they are due for a refresh any day now.

Since we are still awaiting the arrival of Ivy Bridge, that is a much better predictor of when we will see a refresh. At the very least, we know we won't see a refresh UNTIL we see Ivy Bridge. When we have a concrete release for IVB, we can start to put together a more accurate release of new mac products.

Until then, consider late April/ early May. NOT in a few days on March 7...

and, if we are going to go off of the buyers guide, and what needs to be "refreshed the most" shouldn't we expect to see another Mac Pro update before the iMac? Yeah, another reason the buyers guide is just that, a buyers guide, nothing more.

i wouldnt be looking in buyers guide for product that faces discontinuation according to bunch of rumors and intel continuous prolongation of their processors suitable for mac pro

mac pro is a niche product, imac is mainstream

 

[xxBURT0Nxx]

did i say april 8th is the release date? NOPE, but thanks. You are the one claiming they will be released on March 6th... I have not once said when they would be released other than they are supposed to come out in April, and that's likely when we will see a refresh.

And I know they have a release schedule they would like to follow. Key word here is LIKE... doesn't mean that they will, doesn't mean it won't be more time, doesn't mean it won't be less time. You give way too much credence to a timeline that basically means nothing. There never has been a period of time when apple says, we release iMacs every 260 days, or new mbps every 300. Those are average times between release. That means nothing at all, other than on average they release every x days.

One year, might be 320 days, the next 240 days. That's almost a 3 month difference in release, but the average release is 280 days. So does that mean that 280 days later we will see another refresh? NO... it could be 360 days, could be 180 days... maybe it will never even see a refresh and we will get a new product instead. So I still don't understand what average release cycle tells you.... Oh yea NOTHING, other than what apple did in the past. What they might like to do in the future, but not what the WILL do in the future.

What you seem to not understand is THEY CAN'T REFRESH A PRODUCT WITHOUT NEW HARDWARE. It's that simple. Yeah a refresh might be due today, might have been due a month ago, but how can they refresh it without new hardware?

 

[beosound3200]

did i say april 8th is the release date? NOPE, but thanks. You are the one claiming they will be released on March 6th... I have not once said when they would be released other than they are supposed to come out in April, and that's likely when we will see a refresh.

And I know they have a release schedule they would like to follow. Key word here is LIKE... doesn't mean that they will, doesn't mean it won't be more time, doesn't mean it won't be less time. You give way too much credence to a timeline that basically means nothing. There never has been a period of time when apple says, we release iMacs every 260 days, or new mbps every 300. Those are average times between release. That means nothing at all, other than on average they release every x days.

One year, might be 320 days, the next 240 days. That's a two month difference in release, but the average release is 280 days. Still don't understand what that tells you.... Oh yea NOTHING, other than what apple did in the past. What they might like to do in the future, but not what the WILL do in the future.

What you seem to not understand is THEY CAN'T REFRESH A PRODUCT WITHOUT NEW HARDWARE. It's that simple. Yeah a refresh might be due today, might have been due a month ago, but how can they refresh it without new hardware?

quote me


and read my post again

 

[xxBURT0Nxx]

if you insist on looking like a fool....

what facts should i look at? the fact that ivy bridge will be released on march 6th?

 

[beosound3200]

if you insist on looking like a fool....

ok, i guess i need to explain myself.

those were the 'facts' in your meaning of the word fact, so not at all facts, just mentioning predictions that contradicted yours predictions

the only fact i mentioned in that post was:

'the fact remains, imacs will be released in april'

so read my posts again, and again and again and again, but with the brain this time

notice the ' sign on the word update in that post?

 

[davidgnomo]

I can't believe you guys are arguing on such a thread ... Apple has won again if they can push people to waste time trying to guess when the next product will be available !

Anyways ... have fun !

 

[xxBURT0Nxx]

ok, i guess i need to explain myself.

those were the 'facts' in your meaning of the word fact, so not at all facts, just mentioning predictions that contradicted yours predictions

the only fact i mentioned in that post was:

'the fact remains, imacs will be released in april'

so read my posts again, and again and again and again, but with the brain this time

notice the ' sign on the word update in that post?

so you start out a post stating.... what facts should i look at.... then proceeded to list out about 6 statements claiming them as "fact" but now you are saying they aren't "facts"

Then, you say the only "fact" you stated is that "iMacs will be released in April" ????????

So your only fact in a post of "facts" is actually a guess. a prediction, a thought, a hope, an opinion... basically anything but a fact.....

And you want me to use my brain? Do you even think before you say things. Climb back into your hole because the only thing i've gotten out of your posts is:

blah, blah, blah, i don't know what i'm talking about.... blah, blah blah.

IDK what you consider a fact, but it's obviously wrong. Here i will help you with your own post:

FACT - "or the fact that in 13 days imacs will be overdue for the longest time since 2008 update?"

OPINION - "the fact that ivy bridge will be released on march 6th with mass availability in april?"

OPINION - "or the fact that macbooks were 'updated' in october so there is no sense in updating them earlier than imacs"

OPINION - "the fact remains, we will see imacs in april at latest."

OPINION - "i think imacs in march makes more sense than in may."

So, do us all a favor, grab a dictionary, look up the words "fact" and "opinion," then go ahead and read those again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, but USE YOUR BRAIN... and maybe you will be able to have a semi-intelligent conversation..

 

[forty2j]

and in imacs case? learn from the past...

The past tells me that every other product with more than 2 releases has some kind of irregularity in their release pattern. Why would the iMac be different?

Ok, here's some math:
Buyer's guide tells us the average refresh time is 273 days. Of course none of them were exactly 273 days, but that's average.
The numbers also tell us that there's a standard deviation of 25 days. If you assume a normal distribution, then that means we can say with roughly 65% confidence that the refresh will be between 248 and 298 days. With 95% confidence, between 223 and 323 days. With 99% confidence, between 198 and 348 days.

So here's your windows:
65% confidence: Jan 6 - Feb 25
95% confidence: Dec 12 - Mar 21
99% confidence: Nov 17 - Apr 15

So there's roughly a 0.5% chance, based on past history, of the event occurring after April 15. Now, what would cause that chance to occur? Well, maybe Intel or AMD/nVidia haven't stamped some chips for them yet. Probability and past history can't just make something happen on their own.

 

[leman]

Guys, you seem to be mixing a few dates here. The 8 April is when the IB will be available in retail. The computer manufacturers should be receiving IB CPUS for quite some time now. So it would not be surprising if we actually see some computers powered by the IB CPUs before the retail launch.

What does it tell us about the iMac refresh? Absolutely nothing, other than 'it will be probably soon'

----------

T If you assume a normal distribution

Unfortunately, this is the only one, but also a totally devastating weak point in your analysis

 

[forty2j]

Unfortunately, this is the only one, but also a totally devastating weak point in your analysis

Granted, but I think it actually errs on the side of supporting previous history. Distributions with flatter curves will just give wider windows.

 

[beosound3200]

so you start out a post stating.... what facts should i look at.... then proceeded to list out about 6 statements claiming them as "fact" but now you are saying they aren't "facts"

Then, you say the only "fact" you stated is that "iMacs will be released in April" ????????

So your only fact in a post of "facts" is actually a guess. a prediction, a thought, a hope, an opinion... basically anything but a fact.....

And you want me to use my brain? Do you even think before you say things. Climb back into your hole because the only thing i've gotten out of your posts is:

blah, blah, blah, i don't know what i'm talking about.... blah, blah blah.

IDK what you consider a fact, but it's obviously wrong. Here i will help you with your own post:

FACT - "or the fact that in 13 days imacs will be overdue for the longest time since 2008 update?"

OPINION - "the fact that ivy bridge will be released on march 6th with mass availability in april?"

OPINION - "or the fact that macbooks were 'updated' in october so there is no sense in updating them earlier than imacs"

OPINION - "the fact remains, we will see imacs in april at latest."

OPINION - "i think imacs in march makes more sense than in may."

So, do us all a favor, grab a dictionary, look up the words "fact" and "opinion," then go ahead and read those again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, but USE YOUR BRAIN... and maybe you will be able to have a semi-intelligent conversation..

xxBURT0Nxx:

'Ivy Bridge isn't slated to ship until end of April/early May.'

thats the fact i was referring to, hence the 'fact' meaning

and yeah, i do believe that the fact remains: imacs will be released in april, the only question is when. some predictions can be regarded as facts when everything points to them:

ivy bridge: maybe march 6th, maybe april 8th (with dual core delayed, so no macbooks)
gpus: both early april at latest
buyers guide: imacs looong overdue

the conclusion presents itself: april

the only thing debatable is early/late april, thats why i posted here the prediction on march 6th release, that could possibly mean early april, but probably no earlier because of the amd/nvidia, also mentioned which are slated for early april release (mass).

theres a difference between 'facts' that are completely wrong (like yours mentioned above) and the facts that can be in a way regarded as facts, like sensible predictions

the only reason i responded to your post was this:

'Take a look at past refresh cycles, upcoming hardware availability, and it's pretty easy to see approximately when a certain product will receive a refresh.'
which i thought it meant ivy bridge launch +5 months absolutely completely wrong, hence the meaning of 'facts', again

like i mentioned earlier, use cognitive function of your brain which enables you to look at things in their context. dictionary cant help you with that.

as i mentioned earlier:
there will be no imacs without new hardware
there will be macs as soon as new hardware becomes available, they are loong overdue
there is a higher chance of march imacs than may because of the all the news and rumors about the relevant hardware and the fact that imacs will be long overdue in that period

i respond to you because you refuse to acknowledge a couple of things:
you dont acknowledge rumors about ivy bridge - which is also overdue, so there is possibility we will see them earlier than later
you have absolutely no idea about gpus
you dont acknowledge the fact that apple does indeed have its own refresh cycle that they are trying to follow
and you dont acknowledge the fact that buyers guide actually tells you a a lot: you know when a product is overdue

if you knew those things (and maybe you do) it would become simple logic to predict a refresh:

ivy bridge availability (not mass) + gpus (not mass) + buyers guide = month

did i make myself clear this time?
and my apologies if it sound that im insulting you, maybe i should use more often

----------

The past tells me that every other product with more than 2 releases has some kind of irregularity in their release pattern. Why would the iMac be different?

Ok, here's some math:
Buyer's guide tells us the average refresh time is 273 days. Of course none of them were exactly 273 days, but that's average.
The numbers also tell us that there's a standard deviation of 25 days. If you assume a normal distribution, then that means we can say with roughly 65% confidence that the refresh will be between 248 and 298 days. With 95% confidence, between 223 and 323 days. With 99% confidence, between 198 and 348 days.

So here's your windows:
65% confidence: Jan 6 - Feb 25
95% confidence: Dec 12 - Mar 21
99% confidence: Nov 17 - Apr 15

So there's roughly a 0.5% chance, based on past history, of the event occurring after April 15. Now, what would cause that chance to occur? Well, maybe Intel or AMD/nVidia haven't stamped some chips for them yet. Probability and past history can't just make something happen on their own.

well, thats statistics

you know what they say about statistics: truth/lie/statistics

history cant tell you what will happen, but in this case it tells you that imacs are overdue, and thats all you need to know.
the conclusion is, imacs are coming out when new hardware becomes available, and thats exactly what we are here talking about

 

[Bear]

I can't believe you guys are arguing on such a thread ... Apple has won again if they can push people to waste time trying to guess when the next product will be available !

Anyways ... have fun !

This is a forum on the internet. People will debate anything on internet forums - whether or not it makes sense to debate it.

 

[forty2j]

some predictions can be regarded as facts when everything points to them

Thomas Dewey would like a word with you.

 

[beosound3200]

Thomas Dewey would like a word with you.

only time can tell

btw, thats called presumption, often used by legal systems

 

[xxBURT0Nxx]

beosound.... you obviously have no idea what you are talking about.

Look up the definition of a FACT... it can't be something that is LIKELY to happen, something that will PROBABLY happen, something that MIGHT happen, something you THINK will happen, etc.

Yes, I agree, as I've posted (before you) that we will likely see a refresh in APRIL. However, you can't state that as a fact. How do you know they won't be released May 1? Oh yeah, you don't. How do you know they won't be released March 31? Oh yeah, you don't.

Learn the definition of a FACT before you try to argue that your opinion is indeed a fact because it just makes you look like an idiot.

I'm not even going to bring up your misguided refresh cycle means apple must update argument. Let me know when you have a basic understanding of the english language and what a fact represents... because everything you post as fact, is actually an opinion. And although your opinion may prove to be true in the future, you can't state it as fact until it is, in fact, proven to be so.....

edit- here, let me help you with a little knowledge....

fact/fakt/ - A thing that is indisputably the case.

pre·sump·tion/priˈzəmpSHən/ - An idea that is taken to be true, and often used as the basis for other ideas, although it is not known for certain.

therefore, a PRESUMPTION is NOT a FACT... get that through your head!!!

 

[beosound3200]

beosound.... you obviously have no idea what you are talking about.

Look up the definition of a FACT... it can't be something that is LIKELY to happen, something that will PROBABLY happen, something that MIGHT happen, something you THINK will happen, etc.

Yes, I agree, as I've posted (before you) that we will likely see a refresh in APRIL. However, you can't state that as a fact. How do you know they won't be released May 1? Oh yeah, you don't. How do you know they won't be released March 31? Oh yeah, you don't.

Learn the definition of a FACT before you try to argue that your opinion is indeed a fact because it just makes you look like an idiot.

I'm not even going to bring up your misguided refresh cycle means apple must update argument. Let me know when you have a basic understanding of the english language and what a fact represents... because everything you post as fact, is actually an opinion. And although your opinion may prove to be true in the future, you can't state it as fact until it is, in fact, proven to be so.....

ok, look at it as a presumption, does that make it easier for you?

in the end who cares, youve grabbed onto that fact thing like i dont know what, take it easy

so my misguided refresh cycle aside, how come youre also mentioning april too?

and yeah, ive been posting april around this forum for months

the thing is, life becomes much harder if you blindly follow the definition of facts, thats why people constantly use presumptions

 

[xxBURT0Nxx]

I'm not the one posting things and stating them as facts when they are not... you ARE, what's so hard to understand about that?

here I'll post it for you again...


fact/fakt/ - A thing that is indisputably the case.

pre·sump·tion/priˈzəmpSHən/ - An idea that is taken to be true, and often used as the basis for other ideas, although it is not known for certain.

therefore, a PRESUMPTION is NOT a FACT... get that through your head!!!

So yes, I said i THINK that we will see them in April, because as you have pointed out, that is a very logical guess. but, it is NOT a fact.

If you want to go around and post opinions, educated guesses, presumptions, etc. don't state them as fact, then argue for 10 posts that it is indeed a fact, stating sometimes things are facts even if not proven, then you realize how moronic you sound because everyone else knows an opinion (no matter how educated or sound it may be) is NOT a fact. Glad that you are finally starting to realize that.

 

[beosound3200]

I'm not the one posting things and stating them as facts when they are not... you ARE, what's so hard to understand about that?

here I'll post it for you again...


fact/fakt/ - A thing that is indisputably the case.

pre·sump·tion/priˈzəmpSHən/ - An idea that is taken to be true, and often used as the basis for other ideas, although it is not known for certain.

therefore, a PRESUMPTION is NOT a FACT... get that through your head!!!

So yes, I said i THINK that we will see them in April, because as you have pointed out, that is a very logical guess. but, it is NOT a fact.

If you want to go around and post opinions, educated guesses, presumptions, etc. don't state them as fact, then argue for 10 posts that it is indeed a fact, stating sometimes things are facts even if not proven, then you realize how moronic you sound because everyone else knows an opinion (no matter how educated or sound it may be) is NOT a fact. Glad that you are finally starting to realize that.

THIS is a presumption

who said that presumption is a fact? i know i didnt, ive just said that you transposition the word fact with word presumption in my posts if that makes it easier for you. but in a way, presumption is a fact.

every fool out there can use dictionary. try to improvise a little bit, it certainly wont help you to understand better other people, you need something else for that.

for me, april imacs are the fact, its happening (its indisputably the case), for you thats an opinion, but in the end, its a presumption

maybe its just hard for you to wrap your head around that so you need to pick up your dictionary to 'understand' what im saying. it definitely wont help you, as you can see

the only thing important here is when do new imacs come out, so please stay on topic

 

[forty2j]

some predictions can be regarded as facts when everything points to them:

btw, thats called presumption, often used by legal systems

who said that presumption is a fact? i know i didnt

presumption is a fact.

I'M SOOOO CONFUSED!!!!!

for me, april imacs are the fact, its happening (its indisputably the case)

For this to be indisputable, you'd need to have knowledge of purchase orders and delivery dates for component parts from Intel and a GPU manufacturer at the very least. It's only a guess. A likely one, perhaps, but nothing more than that.

You'd probably do well as a financial analyst; they make quite a lot of money making guesses and presenting them as "fact".

 

[xxBURT0Nxx]

ive just said that you transposition the word fact with word presumption in my posts if that makes it easier for you. but in a way, presumption is a fact.

for me, april imacs are the fact, its happening (its indisputably the case), for you thats an opinion, but in the end, its a presumption

maybe its just hard for you to wrap your head around that so you need to pick up your dictionary to 'understand' what im saying. it definitely wont help you, as you can see

the only thing important here is when do new imacs come out, so please stay on topic

No, you are trying to say that your presumptions ARE facts... it doesn't work that way guy, if you can't understand that, I don't know what to tell you. You can't swap out the word presumption for the word fact... they are not synonymous... Just look at your next sentence here. You said "FOR ME, it's a fact"... then you say, "in the end, it's a presumption" so which is it? a fact or presumption?? Oh you don't know what either word means.. go ahead and go back and read what I posted for you

Nothing here is hard for me to understand. I know that I predict iMacs will come out in April... just like you do. The difference is I understand that this is a PREDICTION, a PRESUMPTION, a GUESS, a THOUGHT, an OPINION, etc. (see what I did there... those words are all synonymous, words you can swap for one another. Again.. FACT and PRESUMPTION are NOT!!) As soon as you realize that even if in you think they will come out in April (which I agree with for the 800th time), that does not make it a fact. Something you THINK will happen, can NOT be presented as a fact, no matter how much you may want it to be.

I've been on topic guy... why don't you stop spam posting your opinions and then arguing them as fact. Pretty sure an 8 year old could tell you that your opinion is not a fact.

Maybe this will help you understand. I'll take your sentence and change it...

"for me, september imacs are the fact, its happening (its indisputably the case)"

so just because I said "for me" does that make it a fact? No, it's an opinion, address it as such and you will stop making yourself look like a complete fool with absolutely no understanding of the basic english language.

 

[yashi]

A lot of energy expended in this thread from arguing about the word "fact" over the internet.

 

[forty2j]

A lot of energy expended in this thread from arguing about the word "fact" over the internet.

And that's a fact.

 

[MoreAwesomeDanU]

ivy bridge doesn't bring much new features to the table... no point in waiting. Chances are if you are doing everyday tasks and editing your pictures, you will notice little to no difference between the current imacs and upcoming ivy bridge ones

 

[davidgnomo]

This is a forum on the internet. People will debate anything on internet forums - whether or not it makes sense to debate it.

Respect ... that's why I wrote 'em to have fun ...