What I said about the current Apple TV is not absurd if you factor in the following. If Apple will launch a new Apple TV and keep the current one around, it will do so announcing the new one as the next revolution in TV consumption and casual gaming (even if it is not). The current Apple TV will ride on that marketing wave and at a possibly lower price point will see an increase in sales.
I don't see this as an impossible scenario.
I kinda do. The current Apple TV has been available for a long time. It's not going to surge based on a new model that leapfrogs it. If anything, I think it would likely decline or stay level. Now - if they make it so that this "base" model somehow works in tandem with the higher priced version (so that instead of needing to buy two higher priced ones, you can buy one high and one low) - then I think you might be on to something.
Nothing is stopping those people that want an Apple TV currently from getting one. Which is why their competitors have outpaced them. Advertising/Marketing isn't going to save that.