The first gamers needed to write their own code before they could play. The programs where printed out in magazines. You couldn't get them on floppy disk, you had to copy every line by hand. In the same way cameras started out without a point-and-shoot option, you had to master the skill before you could make a decent photo. Without the necessity this skill is not going to be learned again. Which makes using a DSLR a skill people won't have anymore. Just like being able to service the engine of your own car or fixing problems in your own computer.
I remember those days of computers.
But the thing you keep pushing is this idea of the average person having to learn SLRs. That simply wasn't true. Simple film cameras with fixed lenses (low end rangefinders), Polaroids, disposables. All these existed prior to point and shoots killing them off. Before that, you paid someone to photograph you because the equipment was expensive and fiddly.
And these kinds of photography are going to die with their enabling technology. There will be filters to emulate some of the effects. Instead of using a chemical black and white photo film there will be software to throw away the color information.
I'm not talking about B&W.
This sort of photography is a niche market, but they have no problems getting served. What the average person does with a smartphone, point and shoot, or disposable has zero impact on this niche.
I still remember my Sony Ericsson T630 with 352 x 288 pixel or 0.1 megapixel. It didn't matter that this camera was always with me, I never made a photo with it. The only reason phone cameras became more popular is because they became a whole lot better and are now suited for their tasks.
Only because you started with photography when good smartphone cameras weren't there yet. You are biased to what is familiar to you.
Not biased at all. You don't even respond to my points (or listen to what I do say), really, and make side points instead. I use my smartphone camera frequently. But it does not produce what I consider to be something I would call art. Yet, I have multiple shots that I have produced and processed on my walls from other types of camera. While the iPhone camera is quite good for simple stuff (say, what I would have used a disposable for in the past), the capabilities fall short of what a high-end P&S is capable of today. When you start talking about Sony's APS-C and 35mm sensors, the iPhone is left in the dust. But much like the average person doesn't want a supercomputer, the average person doesn't need the benefits that an interchangable lens camera offers. But that doesn't mean the niche is somehow destroyed.
The argument you have failed to respond to in any way, shape, or form, is this:
DSLRs (and SLRs before them) are primarily a hobbyist / professional tool. The average person did not carry them around in the past, they don't do it now. So in what world does the average person migrating from disposable film cameras, to point and shoots, and then to smartphones have anything to do with the life or death of (D)SLRs when they never used the things? In this case, hobbyist means someone actually interested in learning some of the same skills as a professional, but not doing it as a career. Much in the same way a computer hobbyist does learn how to build/repair computers, and understand why they work the way they do, rather than just spending a lot of time on one. And do you honestly think professionals are ditching DSLRs?
Respond to this, and there's a discussion worth having. What isn't fun is trying to debate with someone who can't seem to grasp that their core premise has a couple holes, and refuses to address them when pointed out, and instad tackles small side topics (and I've removed my responses to those side issues to focus the discussion).
And as a side question, why hasn't the P&S killed the DSLR yet? No futzing with interchangable lenses there, but even that hasn't been able to do it. I wonder why. And what's your experience with cameras? Have you ever touched a DSLR? A film camera? What kinds? I suspect the answer to why you feel the way you do is in that personal experience.