I'd expect the battery to run down in an hour, too. Ignoring the fact that overuse of animation causes users to perceive their devices as slow, it also has a very real cost in terms of the hardware's usability.
Plus, even if they did redo the home screen in some crazy way, each device has its own build of iOS, so there's nothing stopping them from shipping the existing springboard for old hardware and a new, whiz-bang springboard for devices that support it. The extra effort to maintain springboard should be almost zero at this point anyway, making that almost a no-op in terms of effort.
So the justification just isn't there. The only valid threshold is when the fallout from the devices turning into a botnet is exceeded by the engineering costs of continuing to ship security updates for the devices. For the early devices, this was easy, because they didn't have any sales. As time passed, each model sold more units than the previous model, and was used by people for longer than the previous generation, so the support periods are necessarily stretching.
I can pretty much guarantee they won't drop the 6s, though. David Smith has a regularly updated
set of graphs and charts telling the breakdown of hardware that runs one of his apps. Although this isn't guaranteed to be a representative sample, it's a pretty strong indication of what devices are in active use. And the aggregate of his numbers are within about +/- 10% of various other industry groups' aggregate statistics for various groups of devices, which makes me suspect that they are probably all at least in the right ballpark.
Here are the top 5 most popular iPhone models:
- iPhone 6s: 12.3%
- iPhone 7: 10.2%
- iPhone 6: 10.1%
- iPhone SE: 6.9%
- iPhone 6s+: at 5.8%
Yes, that's right. The iPhone 6s is still #1. Apparently they'll have to pry the headphone jack from our cold, dead hands.
If this rumor were correct, only one of the top five would still be supported, and only five out of the top ten. In fact, in tenth place at 3.6%, the venerable iPhone 5s still has more active users than the XR, XS, and XS Max combined (#16 at 1.5%, #25 at 0.6%, and #20 at 1.3%, respectively). In fact the XS is barely above the levels of the iPhone 4s, which has been unsupported since 2016. I'll let that sink in for a minute.
In fact, with the iPhone X coming in at 5.1%, Apple would make fewer users angry and cause less harm to the security of their platform by declaring Face ID (8.5% combined) to be a colossal mistake and dropping support for their entire flagship line than dropping support for the small-form-factor 5s and SE (10.5% combined). Similarly, current-generation Touch ID devices (the 7/7+/8/8+) outnumber Face ID devices by somewhere around a factor of 2.5. Hmm. Maybe it wasn't a good idea.
By my rough math, there are likely still on the order of
26 million iPhone 5s devices still being actively used actively, which is about the same as the total number of cellular phones in the state of California. If they dropped software updates for them, that would be one
really freaking big botnet, with 4.5x as many devices as the most popular iPhone that Apple no longer supports (iPhone 5 at .8%).
In total, the 6/6+/6s/6s+ make up 31.2% of active devices by themselves. If you add the iPhone 5s and SE to that, the supposed list of products being dropped would be 41.7% of all iOS devices in active use (this includes iPads, iPod Touch). That would be tantamount to shutting down the entire platform.
In other words, don't make me laugh. This rumor is absurd.
That said, I will make some predictions:
- Given the insane popularity of the small form factor in spite of its age, I'd be willing to bet we'll see a refresh of the SE this year or next with the same SoC as the next generation of flagship phones.
- There is a small possibility that they may drop support for the 5s to further encourage adoption at the same time as the refresh, though I'd bet on waiting a year to let the 5s numbers drop down into fraction-of-a-percent territory before dropping support.
- I also expect to see a return of Touch ID on some models (probably through the screen) — possibly as soon as this year.
- We'll probably see native USB-C ports on new iPhone models this year, for better wired headphone compatibility and accessory sharing with Macs. Next year at the latest.
I can't guarantee that these predictions will all be correct, but I doubt I'll be much more incorrect than this rumor.