The reason the customer returns the phone doesn't matter. What other products you have or will launch doesn't matter. They returned the phone and got their money back. Apple and AT&T will want your business. The previous transaction is done. This is first year business school stuff. Sorry, you are not understanding the concept that the previous transaction is done.
Why is the previous transaction done? What reason does the person have to return the phone? You're missing the first critical step.
That answer does matter, as it determines whether most people fit into that niche or not.
You can synthesize any situation you'd like, but until you recognize the whole picture you won't understand whats going on.
Let me try to explain this as clearly as possible.
You have a consumer who has purchased a black iphone 4. They would like a white iphone 4, but apple will not allow them to do a simple exchange.
Here is where the first mental jump occurs. Two scenarios can play out:
1. Apple doesn't do anything to prevent returns and rebuys.
2. Apple creates a policy preventing returns and rebuys.
What does the customer do in each scenario. I think we can agree in the 1st one, that the customer will return and rebuy. What what about the 2nd? The customer is CLEARLY happy with the iPhone 4 in general, since they want to purchase one (just in white, not black). So either way THEY WILL END UP WITH AN IPHONE 4. If Apple prevents them from rebuying, I guarantee most people here would sit tight with their black iphone. They would not return the black iphone and get a different brand. They would stick with apple, and accept the black iphone and not the white one.
The 2nd scenario is the one we're concerned with. Your statement is that if Apple does this they will not get any business because they will effectively have not sold the phone and thus made no profit off you.
My argument is that the 2nd scenario will not matter because the majority of people thinking about rebuying, will not give up on the iphone 4 entirely. If they can not find a way to get a white one, they will give up and hold onto their black one. Thus Apple will STILL HAVE MADE A SALE on the black iphone they still have.
This is about as clear as I can make it. If you cannot understand this, I don't know how to make it any clearer. This is a huge flaw in your argument.
I must say, other than this flaw, your argument is correct. If someone were to return a phone, Apple would want them to purchase another. However, given the choice (Apple's choice), between allowing the customer to return the phone and get another one, or forcing them to keep their original purchase....Apple would do the latter as it nets them more money. And thus, because the customer is happy with the phone (just not the color), the customer would keep the original phone and Apple would maintain its profit.