It's all going to come down to sales
"I can confirm that Canada's inventory of iPhone 3G has remained the same throughout our announcements," spokesperson Elizabeth Hamilton told BetaNews.
This is an interesting statement in what it doesn't say. If there has been no friction between Apple and Rogers why wouldn't Rogers categorically deny all aspects of the report. It makes sense that Rogers is already in possession of inventory, and may have been since before the uproar over pricing. The blog report about a rift between Apple and Rogers implies Rogers may face problems restocking initial inventory or obtaining additional inventory needed for a big opening day launch. The statement from Rogers does nothing to dispel this possibility. Of course without corroboration the blog report does have to be taken with a grain of salt. (Perhaps even a spoonful.)
Regardless of who's behind the leak that resulted in the story, or the motives, the story itself may help Rogers.
She further said that the company does not comment on petitions and rumors generally, but did cite customer feedback showing "great demand" for the device.
Now there's the impression (correct or otherwise) that opening day supply for the iPhone is limited and there's "great demand" for the device which is naturally going to push some people into running out and grabbing one while they can. If the iPhone sells well on July 11th a lot of the bad press will be trumped, and if the iPhone story changes from "Canadians angry about iPhone pricing" to "Canadians embrace the iPhone" then Rogers wins a big victory.
Right now Rogers is desperate to end the bad press. They want everyone to calm down. They want to turn the negative press into positive press and they want to show investors that the iPhone is going to have the positive impact on revenue and market share expected when the iPhone was first announced and Rogers stock shot up.
If Rogers turns out to be under supplied and they can sell out at most locations in the first weekend they will likely be rewarded come monday with good press and positive trading. Personally I'm not going to be purchasing an iPhone until there is movement on pricing. I'm a little perplexed that more people aren't waiting for a better deal when it appears that such a move could bring about a real change in cellphone rates. (I say this because it appeared over the weekend that Rogers was preparing to release new pricing today. It's doubtful this new pricing would have included unlimited data - and if it did I think the price would have been $100 for unlimited data on top of everything else - but cheaper is cheaper whatever they might have announced. I actually think Rogers assessed the situation and based on all the calls by people asking about inventory decided there was still a lot of pent up demand for the iPhone, allowing Rogers to hold firm on pricing. Admittedly that's a bit of wild speculation, but what fun is this forum without some wild speculation.)
Canadians complain about the cost of goods of services but when it involves the slightest inconvenience we refuse to change our spending habits and thus continue to reward companies whose pricing we find unfair. On the other hand I understand that it's a personal choice and individually a lot of people have their own very good reasons for wanting to purchase the iPhone on July 11th. In the end I don't think it will matter. This coming monday Rogers may indeed be rewarded after a good launch weekend. But I don't think Rogers will get much market penetration beyond the early adopters. People who don't obsess about their cell phones aren't ready to pay $100 a month to own one. You could argue that an iPhone under contract with Rogers is like a subsidized iPod Touch that's also a phone when you don't take a data plan and you don't use any of the data features. This might appeal to people. Except for one flaw; you can't turn off data on the iPhone. (Perhaps Rogers will disable data at the account level but I wouldn't count on it. And on the Rogers site it says "
Your iPhone will be enabled for data usage. If you subscribe to a plan with no data included, data charges at a pay-per-use rate of 5¢/KB for data sent and/or received over the Rogers network will apply, unless you subscribe to a data plan, which we highly recommend.") So the problem becomes do you want to own an "iPod Touch Phone" where if you accidentally hit the YouTube button you've just spent $5 even if you closed it right away as you realized your mistake.
In the long run - and by long run I think 3 months - Rogers will eventually lower data rates even if they don't do it right now. Just look at what Apple did with the original pricing for the iPhone. It was very expensive and a lot of people complained and it got some bad press but people lined up for it anyway and it sold like hotcakes and analysts went wild with their adjusted sales expectations (didn't one analyst predict 42million in sales by 2010?) and within 3 months after all the early adopters had picked one up sales went flat and Apple slashed the price $200.
If there is a problem between Rogers and Apple perhaps Rogers will in fact lower their rates before the 11th. But if they do I wouldn't expect too much. Someone stated this earlier, Rogers is protecting the rates they charge corporate Blackberry customers. Those rates represented a very positive part of their earnings and they aren't about to give up the bird in the hand just for the two in the bush which is getting every consumer customer to sign up for a data plan.
Cheers