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I'm finally earning more at work and we are hiring again. The housing market has finally picked up and by all measures I expect the US economy to be booming next year.

However, 2016 is not going to be a good year for Apple stock. Either you are going long or you are cutting losses now and plan to buy back after next year’s iPhone hits store shelves. No one is making money on Apple until then. It still has a way to go before it hits bottom.
I plan to buy more Apple , but not until October 2017 at the earliest. The 6 series including this next coming up were outdated ugly relics the day they came out, so we are not going to see Apple stock pick up until they are gone and buried. Even with the economy picking up, people are going to continue to wait out the 6.
Before the 6 series was released we were given a hint at how bad a state Apple was when they released the abomination that was iOS 7. The signs of no one behind the ship and releasing such a major downgrade on the visual front were there. Sure ios was needing a refresh, but when the refresh looked like when a little girl plays with moms make-up, then it's time to worry.
iPhone 6 was an incredible mistake that could undermine all the good that Tims done.
iPhone was way past due a larger phone and we saw there was pent up demand when the 6 was released, but it was such a badly designed product that was not only ugly, but dated the moment it was released. Samsung took advantage of Apple dropping the ball and we'll see if the damage of iPhone 6 can be repaired by next years model or if it's too late and Apple serously damaged its brand with it.

We'll see, but Apple will not have a bad US economy to hide behind next year. The economy will be booming.

I would love to know what you know that makes you so confident? Housing prices are starting to surpass 2008 pricing levels, and already have surpassed in many markets. If anything, I think we are due for a correction. Lots of people are already priced out of the market, especially in desirable areas. Is the money from China going to continue to flood in to "invest" in real estate. What are your views and why do you think the US economy is indeed about to take off?
 
I would love to know what you know that makes you so confident? Housing prices are starting to surpass 2008 pricing levels, and already have surpassed in many markets. If anything, I think we are due for a correction. Lots of people are already priced out of the market, especially in desirable areas. Is the money from China going to continue to flood in to "invest" in real estate. What are your views and why do you think the US economy is indeed about to take off?
People working again. People are needing housing. The glut of housing from the last boom is gone. We Americans are not as dependent on China as are companies like Apple are. There is a difference. And on the contrary, China needs us more that we need them. I see foreign investors coming back to the US real-estate market to take advantage of it. Of course everyone is far more cautious today. The caution will remain until the sting is forgotten and the fomo greed wakes up again.
 
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I still don't understand how Tim Cook can decide to fit 5400 rpm physically spinning hard drives in $1000+ computers, and then turn around and say "We at Apple are committed to making THE BEST computers that we physically can"

This is what annoys me about him. He's not a tech guy, he has no idea, and just looks smug and lies thru his teeth to the public hoping most are too dumb to realise.

I'd actually love Apple to collapse in some ways so they got rid of these marketing idiots and got back to the core of their company and dumped all the old junk and REALLY made things the best that can like they pretend to now.

Tim has become so full of himself, often contradicting himself when he speaks. Maybe 2016/17 will be Apple's "reset" and we'll get rid of 16GB iPhones, MBA with an inferior display, a 5400 rpm drive in a premium computer, 480p webcam, Tim's hot air, etc.
 
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Here we have the fundamental problem with any Company that goes public
- Sudden influx of cash - PLUS
- Investors who only care about how much money they make from their shares - BIG MINUS
There is absolutely no Fundamental need for ANY Company to grow from year to year; ask any corner shop who makes their money, pays their employees. If you can hold your own, & against inflation still be as good as last year, & that is the income you need, then mission accomplished for another 360 Days
This is all just a ridiculous perception that every successful company HAS TO grow every year, and if it stay static, or shrinks, it is a total failure, or about to fall

Yep. For all of us running small businesses, success means rent and payroll is paid this month.

We're only ever 30 days out meaning we focus and work to survive the next 30 days. It blows my mind that people don't notice apples success. People love to complain for the sake of complaining.
 
You can understand why investors are wary: iPad, iPhone, and Mac sales are all down.

Mac hardware updates have become risible and the software updates have floundered. Either Apple is planing something really big—such as a move to ARM—or it is getting close to dropping the computer side of the business completely.

The watch is in its infancy, and wearables are a hard sell, given that the underlying concept seems so out of date.

The shift to fashion is alienating more people than it is enthralling (drop in sales).

The focus on fourth-rate celebs in advertising is also highly alienating. Apple was once a brand of the people, but now it is the brand of gauche and uninspiring d-listers.

Apple's high-street stores and product launches have been badly managed.

For a large company with a lot of resources, Apple's output has been bewilderingly dull in the last few years.

I will never switch to Windows. I would rather have no computer than a Windows PC.

But Apple really needs to get its act together before it heads the way of BlackBerry, Nokia, etc.
 
You can understand why investors are wary: iPad, iPhone, and Mac sales are all down.

Mac hardware updates have become risible and the software updates have floundered. Either Apple is planing something really big—such as a move to ARM—or it is getting close to dropping the computer side of the business completely.

The watch is in its infancy, and wearables are a hard sell, given that the underlying concept seems so out of date.

The shift to fashion is alienating more people than it is enthralling (drop in sales).

The focus on fourth-rate celebs in advertising is also highly alienating. Apple was once a brand of the people, but now it is the brand of gauche and uninspiring d-listers.

Apple's high-street stores and product launches have been badly managed.

For a large company with a lot of resources, Apple's output has been bewilderingly dull in the last few years.

I will never switch to Windows. I would rather have no computer than a Windows PC.

But Apple really needs to get its act together before it heads the way of BlackBerry, Nokia, etc.
No one is moving to Windows and everyone knows this. It's a dead end.
Intel, the brains that makes Windows possible knows this.

Even so, for Apple, Mac sales are not significant enough for melodrama like the type you describe.
2016 is not going to be a good year for Apple stock. Either you are going long or you are cutting losses now and plan to buy back after next year’s iPhone hits store shelves. No one is making money on Apple until then. It still has a way to go before it hits bottom..
Since the economy is doing better and I’m earning more, I plan to buy more Apple , but not until October 2017 at the earliest.
I would imagine that yes, something big is up at Apple. And that yes, ARM is a big part of it. And the creation of Swift is a big part of it.
Apple wants a unified base that their chips can run on.

I fully expect something big from Apple that will leverage their huge investments in ARM. And for it to be a vital part of the future of their code on both operating systems running on the same chip and with the Lego-esque snip and snap code capabilities to paste between the two.
 
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Perhaps Apple just needs to start listening for a change and give people what they want. Just reading the threads at MacRumors would be a good start. They've spent the last many years ignoring the comments about their products.

I think they listen pretty well, otherwise their Mac market share wouldn't have increased and their phones would not have been as successful. True, there are some issues which also keep me personally from upgrading, but we should not see ourselves in this community as representative of the average Apple customer. E.g. Most customers do not even know what a 5400 rpm hd is and would not notice the difference. Apple stores are still filled with customers basing their buying decision on color and shininess. As long as they are in the majority, Apple will remain focusing on their demands.

So, they listen well, but not to us.
 
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No one is moving to Windows and everyone knows this. It's a dead end.
Intel, the brains that makes Windows possible knows this.

Even so, for Apple, Mac sales are not significant enough for melodrama like the type you describe.
2016 is not going to be a good year for Apple stock. Either you are going long or you are cutting losses now and plan to buy back after next year’s iPhone hits store shelves. No one is making money on Apple until then. It still has a way to go before it hits bottom..
Since the economy is doing better and I’m earning more, I plan to buy more Apple , but not until October 2017 at the earliest.
I would imagine that yes, something big is up at Apple. And that yes, ARM is a big part of it. And the creation of Swift is a big part of it.
Apple wants a unified base that their chips can run on.

I fully expect something big from Apple that will leverage their huge investments in ARM. And for it to be a vital part of the future of their code on both operating systems running on the same chip and with the Lego-esque snip and snap code capabilities to paste between the two.

I hope you are right and that Apple is working on significant developments.

I know Apple is losing customers as I know people who have already switched computer, phone, and tablet devices away from Apple. People who will now be out of the Apple ecosystem for at least two or three years. Apple isn't in a class of its own now in the way it was a few years ago. It is stagnating and getting distracted by fashion and celebrity, instead of making high-end must-have products.
 
Here, here. They need to focus on what makes me pay over the odds for their products whether I need to or not. I have the money and I’m ready - just don’t like being ripped off.
At the moment it seems like they’re nickel and diming everyone.
Amen to that. I mean seriously, Apple is still selling 16GB phones, expecting people to buy them for $650. Wow. And they've only just now gone up to 2GB of RAM on the iPhone, something most Android flagships did long ago. My 6 Plus is essentially useless after just a year.

Apple really has been taken over by a bunch of brainless MBA types who couldn't imagine their way out of an open box.

Apple, if you can't innovate, at the very least, keep up with the damn competition.

The Mac these days is even more pathetic than the iPhone. The specs on Apple's desktop machines are truly laughable. Their best mac is stuck in 2013 and they still sell macs with disgusting 5400rpm hard drives....

The worst part of it is: iOS and OS X are truly excellent operating systems, speaking as both a user and developer. Android these days is pretty much equal in my opinion, but the only reason I've been moving over to Android is because Apple's phones and tablets are such awful ripoffs. I'd love nothing more than to get the next iPhone, but they seriously need to catch up with the rest of the industry.
 
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In my opinion, there is one thing that stock market and fashion design have in common: They exist in their own bubble with no relevance in the real world.
 
If people get bored time by time from iOS and Android, is then there any hope for Blackberry? I mean it's now an exotic phone and people want always to try something different. Me for myself I'm tempted by Blackberry 10.

I work in a store that sells all platforms and surprisingly, BlackBerries are starting to take off after a long time. Even I've been recently thinking about buying one. Mainly the Priv, mainly because I consider being it the best of both worlds.
 
Really? Like what? OLED? Yea, that's cutting edge.
edge to edge display? Wow...yea...pioneers to be sure.

Apple has done nothing with the phone devrlopment, and worse they've stuck with a very lame design for what will be 3 generations now.

Well sir, if you are able to post a link a to a phone that's on sale right now with a complete edge to edge display with ALL the sensors and camera and finger print reader and speaker BEHIND the display, then please go right ahead.....

Otherwise I am right and my post stands .. It would also have to be a thin phone with excellent performance.
 



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Hedge fund billionaire David Tepper has sold his entire stake in Apple, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (via Business Insider UK).

Tepper's 1.26 million shares in the company were last valued at around $133 million, according to data from Bloomberg. The massive sale of Apple shares is the second reported in as many months, after billionaire Carl Icahn dumped his stake in the company earlier this year based on worries over China's attitude towards the tech giant.

Since August 2015, 146 of the 833 hedge funds tracked by Goldman Sachs had Apple as one of their largest positions, earning it the number two spot on Goldman's list of stocks "most loved" by hedge funds.

But Apple shares have been on the decline since last month's earnings call, where the company announced its first ever drop in iPhone sales and its first year-over-year revenue drop in 13 years.

Two days ago, shares of Apple fell below $90 for the first time in nearly two years amid investors' concerns over slumping sales. Apple's stock price fell 3.3% to $89.47 during Thursday afternoon trading, leaving its market valuation at $494 billion. At the same time, Google's parent company Alphabet briefly overtook Apple as the world's most valuable company, hitting a market cap of $498 billion.

Article Link: Second Investor Dumps Shares as Apple Stock Drops to Near Two-Year Low

It's called taking a profit, but you can say dumping his shares. Fact is, without regard to whether Apple is going up or down, surprises and delights or not, the market mood is negative. Smart investors know, now is the time to take a profit and buy back-in when the price bottoms out.
 
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Let's take all you said as true for discussion. Apple could treat him like a key employee and issue him stock options that vest over time as a thank you.

Well, you are going down a different rabbit hole there than your original post, but, OK... why? He had little to do with the company's evolution and he voluntarily left after less than two weeks. That doesn't sound like a "key" anything to me. It sounds like a hired temp. Wayne said he has no regrets cashing in. I completely understand the stress he was under, knowing a bone headed move by Jobs could cost him his house. But that is what separates entrepreneurs from clock punchers. Wayne was more comfortable with the latter life. End of story.
 
I know Apple is losing customers as I know people who have already switched computer, phone, and tablet devices away from Apple. People who will now be out of the Apple ecosystem for at least two or three years. Apple isn't in a class of its own now in the way it was a few years ago. It is stagnating and getting distracted by fashion and celebrity, instead of making high-end must-have products.

An ecosystem is a double edged sword, it draws people into using a range of interconnected devices, but once that interconnectivity is broken, the other devices become largely useless. Take the Apple Watch for example. If an Apple Watch owner switches from iPhone to Android, the Apple Watch becomes useless. They end up disposing of TWO devices instead of one, and with the integration then broken, ALL the other Apple devices they have steadily become less useful. It's amazing that Apple seems so unaware of this vulnerability in their product strategy, and that they don't realise that producing a bad product in ONE area, can drive a customer away from their entire range of products. A bad range of disposable non-upgradeable computers held together with glue, not upgrading the Pro or gutting the Mac Mini WILL ALL affect both iPad and iPhone sales, which will in turn affect Apple Watch and even Apple TV sales, when these products are all designed to work so closely together.
[doublepost=1463314193][/doublepost]
Tim has become so full of himself, often contradicting himself when he speaks. Maybe 2016/17 will be Apple's "reset" and we'll get rid of 16GB iPhones, MBA with an inferior display, a 5400 rpm drive in a premium computer, 480p webcam, Tim's hot air, etc.

Is it really possible to call a computer "premium" that has a slow processor, slow hard drive, and a 480p webcam? Aren't these what you would expect in a budget computer? Is it really possible to call Apple a "premium" brand these days, when a lot of what they make is slow, often badly designed, and woefully out of date?
 
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Have you used a windoze machine lately? Have you tried to do anything remotely productive in an office setting with a windoze machine? It's like using a chalkboard to do word processing. The Mac ecosystem is so far ahead of everything else out there it isn't even close. I supply all my own equipment and support at work because I just couldn't take the productivity hit any longer. And it's been great. The only thing I do in windoze now is open up that creaky, heavy brick of a PC laptop every 3 months to change my central corporate password. And it's like stepping back into the nineties when I do it. Get some perspective - MS, Google, they both suck.

Interesting. I don't have such experience.
 
The only thing I hope for, is that Apple focuses on its business and innovation and less about its stock price, or who buys it. If you start worrying about the price of the stock, you take your eyes off of what got you there in the first place.

Tim Cook doesn't see it that way. As a glorified supply chain manager, he only cares about the stockholder, not innovation and the customer, like Steve Jobs once did.
 
An ecosystem is a double edged sword, it draws people into using a range of interconnected devices, but once that interconnectivity is broken, the other devices become largely useless. Take the Apple Watch for example. If an Apple Watch owner switches from iPhone to Android, the Apple Watch becomes useless. They end up disposing of TWO devices instead of one, and with the integration then broken, ALL the other Apple devices they have steadily become less useful. It's amazing that Apple seems so unaware of this vulnerability in their product strategy, and that they don't realise that producing a bad product in ONE area, can drive a customer away from their entire range of products. A bad range of disposable non-upgradeable computers held together with glue, not upgrading the Pro or gutting the Mac Mini WILL ALL affect both iPad and iPhone sales, which will in turn affect Apple Watch and even Apple TV sales, when these products are all designed to work so closely together.
[doublepost=1463314193][/doublepost]

Is it really possible to call a computer "premium" that has a slow processor, slow hard drive, and a 480p webcam? Aren't these what you would expect in a budget computer? Is it really possible to call Apple a "premium" brand these days, when a lot of what they make is slow, often badly designed, and woefully out of date?

Great observation about the ecosystem. I guess this isn't the only issue that investors could be concerned about. I am curious how long Apple can keep this upselling scheme (with the high upgrade prices) up. They will soon have a hard time using price factors like storage, ram and high resolutions screens for their lineup. The smartphone and notebook competition started to raise the bar. Base models will be reaching the good enough territory for most customers. E.g. comparable Android models will be moving to 64GB standard, optional 256GB sd cards 6GB RAM and QHD displays. Comparable notebooks are also moving to 13'' 256GB/8GB/FHD and 15'' 512GB/16GB/4K base models. If Apple matches those specifications, i doubt people will opt for upgrades in the same way they did for 32GB/ 64GB iphones or 256GB/8GB macbooks. If they don't they will loose their image as cutting edge tech company. Maybe i am wrong or Apple can pull out some other feature rabbit out of the hat to sustain their pricing scheme.
 
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Wow. Heavy cost for leaving the computer biz to make toys for tots.

Chickens. Roost.

If only someone could have seen this years ago...

:apple:
 
Tim Cook doesn't see it that way.

Unfortunately, exactly.

Software Quality? Down. Innnovation? Double-down. Strategy (correct in partners and enemies and energy towards both)? Triple-down. Scuddling with Sculley? Oops! Too bad.

I'm on my way back to the ecosystem I left like 7 years ago, heads down - but there seems to be way more future with Microsoft than with Apple. If Tim and John could just leave their Hybris...
 
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I still don't understand how Tim Cook can decide to fit 5400 rpm physically spinning hard drives in $1000+ computers, and then turn around and say "We at Apple are committed to making THE BEST computers that we physically can"

This is what annoys me about him. He's not a tech guy, he has no idea, and just looks smug and lies thru his teeth to the public hoping most are too dumb to realise.

I'd actually love Apple to collapse in some ways so they got rid of these marketing idiots and got back to the core of their company and dumped all the old junk and REALLY made things the best that can like they pretend to now.
I agree that it's annoying if you're an Apple fanboy (like me) but from a business and marketing standpoint, we have to understand that Apple is incentivized to sell the best device at the best profit margin at the best sales number (demand). And so Apple is the best at figuring out that middle point where they know that for most casual consumers they can sell a 5400hd because the experience for them is still beyond satisfactory; and for everyone who is beyond causal and knows what an SSD is, they can upgrade to an SSD.

These decisions are made not to be mean but because they know our demand. If we change our demand, or what consumers as a whole demand, then Apple will change to meet that demand. We have influence.

It's like ying and yang. If you change ying (us), it changes yang (Apple).

So I think we have to educate (media, etc) the average consumer so that they don't buy 5400 hd and don't buy the SSD upgrade.

And let's be fair: all of Apple's laptops have super fast SSD, and the desktops with 5400HD are fairly fast fusion drives that bring a great experience when coupled with macOS. If you don't want fusion, you upgrade to SSD.

And let's be honest: I too annoy with Apple that I have to spend so much to get the top specs ($4k for the retina iMac I want). But it's easier for me to become price incensitive than it is to make Apple completely change their business model to suite my personal price sensitivity.

Spending $4k on an iMac is a steal considering that iMac will bring me not just personal/hobbiest joy, but will make me money. A computer is capital. A computer is a tool. It can make you money (depending on your workflow), and help you manage your life, health, social life, finances, etc. And it's a joy to use if you buy the right one (less cognitive stress).

If I buy a $4,000 iMac for 5 years (as they are made to last) then I'm only spending $66/month. If I buy a $2,000 iMac then I'm only spending $33/month.

Personally, I bought a $3,000 iMac. After 5 years I sold it for $500. So I only spent $2,500, or $42/month. That computer helped me make (example) $2,000/month.

So I spent $42/month (plus housing, utilities and my time/experience) to make $2,000/month. Apple played their part and made me money. I profited.

Why would anyone making $$$ complain about a relatively inexpensive upgrade from Fusion Drive to SSD, if you are not price sensitive to your tools?

If you are price sensitive, then you're most likely a casual consumer which means you don't care about Fusion or 5000HD; or you're broke with expensive taste which let's be honest—is the sickness of many and makes for bad financial decisions.

My point: Apple makes the best devices, you just have to pay for it. If Apple doesn't make the best devices, then ask who does? And then buy from them. This will give the correct feedback (lost sales) that Apple needs to course correct.

Wishing that Apple fails isn't very rational, or isn't the best way to go about getting what you want. If you want cheap, go somewhere else. If you want better devices, don't buy bad devices. And if you don't want to be price sensitive, it's better to make more money for yourself than it is to wish a company changes its value system to appeal to price sensitive market segment. Apple has always leaned toward luxury and we should remember that's what we want—luxury computing. We are beyond casual and we are beyond practical. If casual or practical is your personal value system, the PC market is a better fit (and that's not an insult; PCs are great!)
 
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