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Serious Question...Has Apple already won the tablet war?
- Thread starter Blakjack
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It is premature to say they won it. But clearly they are far ahead of anyone else. At this point it would be really hard for another vendor to release a product that is a direct competitor to the iPad. There was some talk that Vizio is introducing a cheap tablet. How would you know this? Can you go to the Vizio store in the mall and see one? Does it connect to iTunes? Can you go to the Vizio store and get genius assistance for free? Are schools and corporations adopting it?
No. Those battles have already been won by Apple.
I see two chances to challenge Apple.
One is to do something like what Amazon seems to be doing and that is to make a tablet with some sort of business tie-in. For example, Inkling, instead of working with iPads, could make their own tablet. If their textbooks got to be extremely popular then people would have to buy their tablet. Not happening with Inkling but you get the idea. Maybe the cable companies could band together (right) and make a tablet they could give away to their customers to use as remote controls and to look up programs and visit IMDB and such. Not likely either. A big problem is that if they start now it takes two years to get a good product out the door. By that time Apple will have gone through several revisions of the iPad.
The other possibility is Microsoft. They have a huge installed base of Windows and Office software. The tablet they plan to introduce late next year could have some sort of tie-in with that base which would make the tablet desirable regardless of specific features or price. I don't anticipate this but I'll give them their due.
As for HTC and Motorola and such, I don't see that they understand or could provide the functionality you get with an iPad. They will do OK fighting for 2nd, 3rd or 4th place and still make some money, but they won't unseat Apple.
You also have to think about what happens after the iPad. We are already seeing the iPod starting to fade. Will we even recognize the iPad ten years from now? I'm sure Apple doesn't know what it will be like but they are thinking about it and starting to plan for that. Just one more hurdle for the wannabes.
No. Those battles have already been won by Apple.
I see two chances to challenge Apple.
One is to do something like what Amazon seems to be doing and that is to make a tablet with some sort of business tie-in. For example, Inkling, instead of working with iPads, could make their own tablet. If their textbooks got to be extremely popular then people would have to buy their tablet. Not happening with Inkling but you get the idea. Maybe the cable companies could band together (right) and make a tablet they could give away to their customers to use as remote controls and to look up programs and visit IMDB and such. Not likely either. A big problem is that if they start now it takes two years to get a good product out the door. By that time Apple will have gone through several revisions of the iPad.
The other possibility is Microsoft. They have a huge installed base of Windows and Office software. The tablet they plan to introduce late next year could have some sort of tie-in with that base which would make the tablet desirable regardless of specific features or price. I don't anticipate this but I'll give them their due.
As for HTC and Motorola and such, I don't see that they understand or could provide the functionality you get with an iPad. They will do OK fighting for 2nd, 3rd or 4th place and still make some money, but they won't unseat Apple.
You also have to think about what happens after the iPad. We are already seeing the iPod starting to fade. Will we even recognize the iPad ten years from now? I'm sure Apple doesn't know what it will be like but they are thinking about it and starting to plan for that. Just one more hurdle for the wannabes.
No. You win when the other guy gives up or you kill them.
We are a looooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooong way from that.
No. You win when the other guy gives up or you kill them.
We are a looooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooong way from that.
I almost think the question "has Apple already won the tablet war?" is nonsensical. There basically isn't a tablet war. Apple is the only competitor. All of the Android/WebOS tablets are dead in the water pieces of crap.
Yes, they've won it (for the foreseeable future) and it was never a war to begin with.
Other manufacturers aren't trying to make tablets, because they've been doing that for a long time. They're trying to make iPads, because that's what the demand is for, not tablets.
The iPad is the standard by which all the other me-too devices are measured: "the iPad doesn't have X, but the GizmoBox does!" or they look at the specs of the iPad and try to 'beat' them.
People don't like this, but you smartly didn't ask if people liked it or not, so I hope we can avoid that 'discussion'.
How this might change:
(1) Apple's vison is changed or fails to bear fruit - i.e. they trip up majorly.
(2) the market changes apocalyptically (supply of raw materials or disposable income take a huge hit) and demand goes down (this one's doubtful).
(3) another company patiently develops an 'ecosystem', brand image, product line-up, whatever; and within this provide a device which replaces demand for the iPad. This won't happen in 18 months, more like 10 years time, if at all.
(4) a product which can somehow compete on price, like a simple plastic and glass 7" web-browser. Basically a GooglePad, relying on Google search, Docs, Calendar, etc. Scrap the app store, make it in bright or customizable colours, and sell it for < $200.
Other manufacturers aren't trying to make tablets, because they've been doing that for a long time. They're trying to make iPads, because that's what the demand is for, not tablets.
The iPad is the standard by which all the other me-too devices are measured: "the iPad doesn't have X, but the GizmoBox does!" or they look at the specs of the iPad and try to 'beat' them.
People don't like this, but you smartly didn't ask if people liked it or not, so I hope we can avoid that 'discussion'.
How this might change:
(1) Apple's vison is changed or fails to bear fruit - i.e. they trip up majorly.
(2) the market changes apocalyptically (supply of raw materials or disposable income take a huge hit) and demand goes down (this one's doubtful).
(3) another company patiently develops an 'ecosystem', brand image, product line-up, whatever; and within this provide a device which replaces demand for the iPad. This won't happen in 18 months, more like 10 years time, if at all.
(4) a product which can somehow compete on price, like a simple plastic and glass 7" web-browser. Basically a GooglePad, relying on Google search, Docs, Calendar, etc. Scrap the app store, make it in bright or customizable colours, and sell it for < $200.
I liked that one.
I personally feel that Apple will own the Tablet market because of how they control the component supplies and they used what they learned from past successes (iPod) and tweaked from past failures (Clone wars). It is a miracle that Flash didn't kill the iPad but somehow people accepted it.
Duh
Apple has clearly already won. If you even try to use one of those android tablets everything lags, it's slow, and he operating system is confusing and not what you want to deal with when using a tablet.
Apple has clearly already won. If you even try to use one of those android tablets everything lags, it's slow, and he operating system is confusing and not what you want to deal with when using a tablet.
They have not won the tablet market, but they are on their way in doing so. Tablets are still relatively new. Once the tablet reaches the maturity stage of the product life cycle we will then know who the winner truly is. Apple has a giant head start and if everything continues to be the same they of course will win it, but only time will tell.
Yeah, I think they pretty much "won" it to be honest.
Looking by the sales, the iPad is winning by large. I'm not even sure what some competitors are even trying to do with their tablets (BB tab doesn't have some basic functionality such as email ... and HP needs a lot more apps).
Looking by the sales, the iPad is winning by large. I'm not even sure what some competitors are even trying to do with their tablets (BB tab doesn't have some basic functionality such as email ... and HP needs a lot more apps).
Well if they havent won it yet then they have pocket aces and the other manufactures have a 7, 2 off suit. just my opinion. and the consumers support me 
There, fixed it for you....
IBM didn't start winning that war for about two more years...
Not even close. I don't see tablets being as entrenched as PC's are. I see them more like cellphones, where you get a new one every few years, and there's very little brand loyalty.
Even if Apple "wins", they will never "win" like Microsoft won the PC battle in the 90's.
Even if Apple "wins", they will never "win" like Microsoft won the PC battle in the 90's.
I don't really think you can call it a war to be honnest, but for the time being it is safe to say they are well ahead on everyone else. For instance, the iPad 2 does not present a whole lot differences from the 1st gen if you think about it, probably because it doesn't need more to comfirm its leadership on the market. Take the Ipod for exmple, if someone tells you ''mp3'', god knows you would definitively not think about the Zune but the iPod, same for the tablet- iPad is a reference, everyone compares a tablet to the iPad
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Well it depends, doesn't it? MS won in part because just about everyone had to use their OS or software developed for their OS otherwise there would be major compatibility issues. That's why MS remains relevant today even though they clearly have had trouble gaining a foothold in stuff like the smartphone and tablet markets. If enterprise continues adopting iOS devices at the current rate, there's no reason why Apple couldn't experience dominance akin to MS's in the 90s.
thejadedmonkey said:
Well it depends, doesn't it? MS won in part because just about everyone had to use their OS or software developed for their OS otherwise there would be major compatibility issues. That's why MS remains relevant today even though they clearly have had trouble gaining a foothold in stuff like the smartphone and tablet markets. If enterprise continues adopting iOS devices at the current rate, there's no reason why Apple couldn't experience dominance akin to MS's in the 90s.
In the preview video I saw, at least, it looks like Microsoft is doing exactly that.
Instead of thinking of it as a war, I think of it as the tour de france. Right now, Apple has been winning several stages, but the competitors are still getting warmed up. Apple will probably win for a while, but eventually the competition will start producing something the public wants--probably at a lower price.
the apple sales numbers are unsustainable, the competition fierce, and consumers fickle. it's not a war to win, but a market to exploit. android and others will gobble up plenty of their shares.
apple (and everyone else) will move on to the new shiny in a few years and future generations will wonder (like we do with dvd players) what the big deal was. i wouldn't obsess about the tablets.
i find it far more interesting how well apple (and to a lesser degree other companies) have managed to link everything in their "ecosystems" together into complementary systems. i never would have thought i'd buy a portable music player (ipod), tablet computer (ipad), and computer (mbp) to do some of the same tasks. it is amazing how everything works together to amplify the features of other products.
in my opinion, apple is not the most competitive with tablets, but with intuitive integration of every product. whatever you think about the ipad (ipod, mbp, etc.), your purchase is strongly influenced by the environment in which it will operate. so, even if asus or some other company puts out a tablet you think is superior in terms of specs, because of apple's excellent integration, you may still buy the ipad.
that is genius.
apple (and everyone else) will move on to the new shiny in a few years and future generations will wonder (like we do with dvd players) what the big deal was. i wouldn't obsess about the tablets.
i find it far more interesting how well apple (and to a lesser degree other companies) have managed to link everything in their "ecosystems" together into complementary systems. i never would have thought i'd buy a portable music player (ipod), tablet computer (ipad), and computer (mbp) to do some of the same tasks. it is amazing how everything works together to amplify the features of other products.
in my opinion, apple is not the most competitive with tablets, but with intuitive integration of every product. whatever you think about the ipad (ipod, mbp, etc.), your purchase is strongly influenced by the environment in which it will operate. so, even if asus or some other company puts out a tablet you think is superior in terms of specs, because of apple's excellent integration, you may still buy the ipad.
that is genius.
People who are currently betting against the iPad overlook what you've described. First of all, very few competitors have been able to match the iPad on price. And even there too, I doubt they're netting a 30% margin. Apple could easily cut the price of the iPad in order to make it harder for competitors. Apple won't do it in the beginning, but it's a bullet that Apple has.
Also, like you said, Apple controls the supply chain. Apple has singlehandedly created component shortages in the past. In February, there was a report that Apple had booked up 60% of the world's supply of touchscreens. In spite of this, the iPad 2 suffered from a massive backlog. Apple has enough cash to secure the best possible deals on components and block out competitors in the process. This has the added effect of padding Apple's margins, in case they decide to do a price cut. There are rumors that Apple's aggressive supply chain management tactics led to delays in the launch of the PlayBook and Galaxy Tab.
Another thing that people are not realizing is that the iPad is already two versions in. Most competitors aren't even on their first tablet yet. That's a major headstart. A lot of companies are deploying the iPad. This process is fairly lengthy. IT departments aren't going to jump ship overnight.
There are three main jokers in the deck. The first is Flash. I'm not yet ready to push Flash in to the "non-issue" pile. While 25 million people say otherwise, we're not quite there yet. The jury is still out on Flash. If that remains the case for a little bit longer, then I'll call it a "non-issue."
The other joker is Windows 8. As far as I'm concerned, it's nothing more than vaporware. I'm not going to place bets on vaporware, simple as that. But, Windows 8 is still an unknown factor.
Lastly, the "wars" are far from over. Competitors are regrouping. For the past year-and-a-half, competitors have thrown practically their entire marketing muscle behind the availability of Flash. Clearly, Flash as THE main selling point will not be enough to convince people to jump ship. RIM learned that the hard way.
Bottom line, it's not over by any means but Apple has a huge lead.
Great post. I think this says it all. I'll be very interested to see how Windows 8 shapes up. That has the potential to sway a lot of people if MS can pull it off.