Simple. Game over.

[Don't panic]

I am not following: what is the rationale for voting for UCFgrad93, other than a slightly botched quote from Hamlet ?
Besides, if we are judging poetry surely Jav should be on the chopping block?



Plutonius analysis above is quite reasonable, so it makes sense to expect wolfishness in the Jav/moyank/aggie group

On the other hand the argument that wolves must be newbies is very weak because: a) the only newbies were neko, nies and systole. Everyone else should be considered experienced by now. So there is at least one experienced wolf in the group.

b) It’s true that eldiablo was an obvious protection target for the hunter(s), but if he is the seer, he also is a must-kill for the wolves as he is by far the most dangerous player to them and he is now unlyncheable, so they must keep pouncing on him until he is gone, even if it means missing some night kills

c) there are (possibly) still two hunters, and the ideal scenario for the village is that one protected eldiablo last night, and the other didn’t, so he can do it tonight. This implies one hunter taking a risk and not protecting eldiablo. If both made the same assumption, eldiablo could have remained unprotected, and the wolves could have banked on this occurrence.

d) eldiablo might have not been the night target after all. if we disregard the narration, the failed kill could have been because the WW tried to kill someone else protected by the hunters or one of the hunters themselves who have a one-use immunity to a WW attack. Admittedly, this is unlikely because the narration would have been too misleading

based of this, and the fact that aggie has zero votes right now and moyank’s only vote is from the guy most likely to be hanged (and thus holding the least sway) I am going with Jav as he looks almost, but not quite, entirely unlike a villager.



finally a note of warning to myself and everyone else: just keep in mind that while eldiablo likely is the seer, he could also well be a wolf and orchestrated his move for cover. It wouldn’t be the first nor the second time a wolf throws a wolf to the wolves to help the wolves. Of course, if that was the case, there should be a real seer out there.

current situation

ucfgrad93: 4 (moyank, aggie, ravenvii, melrose)
jav: 2 (plutonius, dontpanic)
moyank24:1 (ucfgrad)
plutonius: 1 (jav)
Lbro: 1 (eldiablojoe)

did not vote yet: 3 (neko, Lbro, nathan)

 

[184550]

I think I'm a little confused.

Have we determined yet how Eldiablojoe knew that Nies was a wolf?

 

[-aggie-]

Plutonius analysis above is quite reasonable, so it makes sense to expect wolfishness in the Jav/moyank/aggie group

Where are you reading that Plutonius thinks moyank and I are WW’s???

I think I'm a little confused.

Have we determined yet how Eldiablojoe knew that Nies was a wolf?

Right now, he could have just guessed it. I’m not sure.

 

[184550]

Right now, he could have just guessed it. I’m not sure.

Ok, that's the feeling I got from reading the latest but I wanted to be sure before I voted.

Jav6454

 

[ucfgrad93]

Hey, my Hamlet was spot on. . I won't be around much today as I am on a field trip with my son. All I can say is that if you lynch me, youl will have not only lost a villager but a damn fine tailor.

 

[jav6454]

So now I get picked on just because I don't vote -aggie-? Funny... also, why would I do what i did last game, to die again on day 1?

The whole Jav vi Britannia was in character, here I have no in-character role, why? because english is not original language so poetry not my forte. Albeit I can swap it out for King James or King Henry... if thats what takes you to make me more "visible"


Also my argument of the wolves being newbies doesn't mean the wolves are literally new players. It could well be players who have been playing for long times (other roles) but have never really been wolves until now. Last I checked, I got you guys 2 wolves and you guys shot em down. Here I am leaning towards Moyank24, but if I vote for her, I get shot in the arse. I could also add my vote to ucfgrad, but it still makes no sense. What else can I do?

 

[Don't panic]

Where are you reading that Plutonius thinks moyank and I are WW’s???

From how he points out that you both switched to Nies after he seemed to be a goner. One of the reasons for jumping ship could be for covering, the other of course being the belief that eldiablo was onto something, as it turned out to be

Nathan, eldiablo voted for nies early on, then when he himself became at risk, he ‘guaranteed’ nies was the wolf. Since he was correct, one would have to at least strongly consider him actually being the seer, since there weren’t strong indications on nies before that to warrant such a forceful ‘guess’.
That, or he is pulling a Nathan

Ucfgrad, I was wondering whether ‘tis noble in the mind to quote Shakespeare almost correctly drawing from the heart, or to pull out the precise words from wikipedia.
But me and another infinite number of monkeys can come up with the script of Hamlet that way, so more power to you if you remember most of it

 

[-aggie-]

I think it’s hilarious that jav is getting votes for not voting for me. I purposely didn’t vote for him this game to make sure we didn’t have a repeat of last game, and thankfully he didn’t vote for me, as well. However, as a result, he’s getting votes. I’d vote for him, if I thought he was a WW, but right now I don’t really know who to pick. I just know who not to pic, ravenvii, IF we are to believe eldiajoeblow is the seer. I think some of you just like drama.

 

[Plutonius]

So now I get picked on just because I don't vote -aggie-? Funny... also, why would I do what i did last game, to die again on day 1?

The whole Jav vi Britannia was in character, here I have no in-character role, why? because english is not original language so poetry not my forte. Albeit I can swap it out for King James or King Henry... if thats what takes you to make me more "visible"


Also my argument of the wolves being newbies doesn't mean the wolves are literally new players. It could well be players who have been playing for long times (other roles) but have never really been wolves until now. Last I checked, I got you guys 2 wolves and you guys shot em down. Here I am leaning towards Moyank24, but if I vote for her, I get shot in the arse. I could also add my vote to ucfgrad, but it still makes no sense. What else can I do?

Heh heh... Now that's the Jav we expect to see .

One thing to keep in mind probability wise is that at least one WS is an experienced WS if both nies and ucf are both WS. If the WS are making newbie mistakes (as both you and Moyank have stated), it means that the experienced WS is probably letting the newbies call the shots.

Besides yourself, I consider both lbro and ucfgrad93 as strong candidates for WS.

The only ones I would consider safe are eldiablojoe, ravenvii (based on eldiablojoe clearing him), and "Don't Panic" / Nathan (based on their votes that killed nies).

I still believe that Neko Girl is not playing (maybe at this point she should get tossed from the game).

Both Moyank and Aggie are still possibilities after their voting last turn.

I would like to be able to say that my vote for nies last turn clears me but it was only the second vote.

 

[184550]

Nathan, eldiablo voted for nies early on, then when he himself became at risk, he ‘guaranteed’ nies was the wolf. Since he was correct, one would have to at least strongly consider him actually being the seer, since there weren’t strong indications on nies before that to warrant such a forceful ‘guess’.

Ok, I just wanted to make sure that I hadn't missed any undertones when reading through all the new posts because that incident didn't seem to be fully explained, yet.

That, or he is pulling a Nathan

I hope not!

 

[-aggie-]

Heh heh... Now that's the Jav we expect to see .

One thing to keep in mind probability wise is that at least one WS is an experienced WS if both nies and ucf are both WS. If the WS are making newbie mistakes (as both you and Moyank have stated), it means that the experienced WS is probably letting the newbies call the shots.

Besides yourself, I consider both lbro and ucfgrad93 as strong candidates for WS.

The only ones I would consider safe are eldiablojoe, ravenvii (based on eldiablojoe clearing him), and "Don't Panic" / Nathan (based on their votes that killed nies).

I still believe that Neko Girl is not playing (maybe at this point she should get tossed from the game).

Both Moyank and Aggie are still possibilities after their voting last turn.

I would like to be able to say that my vote for nies last turn clears me but it was only the second vote.

Wrong.

Edit: This strategy has been used in the past by a number of WW’s (RP was one IIRC).

 

[Don't panic]

i don't think people are voting jav because he didn't vote aggie, but because of who he did vote (and didn't vote, other than aggie) and the purported reasons for it, and in part because of the tone of posting.
to me, the main reason is because when fronted with the option to vote for a self-implied seer who fingered someone as a wolf or the self-implied seer himself, you decided to treat it as SomeOne Else's Problem and chose not to vote.

also, for the record, i noticed that plutonius made a mistake in the reconstruction of the voting history, because he missed an early aggie vote that was later unbolded when he switched.

bold parts added by me:

Everyone should look at the voting from last round:
1) ucfgrad93 votes for neko girl.
2) melrose votes for ucfgrad93.
3) moyank24 votes for eldiablojoe.
4) eldiablojoe votes for nies.
5) jav votes for plutonius.
-> Aggie votes for eldiablojoe
6) "Don't Panic" votes for moyank24.
7) nies votes for eldiablojoe.
8) nathan votes for eldiablojoe.
[At this point is 4 votes eldiablo, 1 vote nies, neko, ucfgrad, plutonius]
- eldiablojoe guarantees that nies is a WS. [turning point of the day]
9) plutonius votes for nies.
10) "Don't Panic" switched his vote to nies.
- Note - At this point, both eldiablojoe and nies had three votes althoughh eldiablojoe was ahead by the tie breaker. <- incorrect, at this point is 4 votes eldiablo, 3 nies
11) Nathan switched his vote from eldiablojoe to nies giving nies a 2 vote lead. (1 vote lead, 4-3 nies)
12) Moyank switched her vote from eldiablojoe to nies. (nies has a 4 vote lead). (3 vote lead, 5-2 nies)
13) Aggie voted for nies. [Aggies switches from eldiablo to nies] (nies has a five vote lead). (now it's correct again : 6-1)
14) Ravenvii voted for eldiablojoe (nies has a four vote lead) [final (6-2)]
15) Jav retracts his vote. [from plutonius]

bottom line, 5 people switched to/voted for nies after eldiablo 'guarantee'. whether they are all genuine or someone was just jumping in for cover it's hard to tell for now. if that's the case, this scenario would more likely apply to aggie and moyank who came in late.

 

[-aggie-]

i don't think people are voting jav because he didn't vote aggie, but because of who he did vote (and didn't vote, other than aggie) and the purported reasons for it, and in part because of the tone of posting.
to me, the main reason is because when fronted with the option to vote for a self-implied seer who fingered someone as a wolf or the self-implied seer himself, you decided to treat it as SomeOne Else's Problem and chose not to vote.

also, for the record, i noticed that plutonius made a mistake in the reconstruction of the voting history, because he missed an early aggie vote that was later unbolded when he switched.

bold parts added by me:
[/SIZE]

bottom line, 5 people switched to/voted for nies after eldiablo 'guarantee'. whether they are all genuine or someone was just jumping in for cover it's hard to tell for now. if that's the case, this scenario would more likely apply to aggie and moyank who came in late.

And if we hadn’t switched our vote, you’d be saying the same thing. Each of us voted for who we thought might be the WW at the time. Eldiablojoe was as good as anyone else at the time. I switched once he implied he was the seer. What else was I supposed to do? Why not imply that those who didn’t switch to Eldiablojoe’s vote are WW’s???

 

[Plutonius]

And if we hadn’t switched our vote, you’d be saying the same thing. Each of us voted for who we thought might be the WW at the time. Eldiablojoe was as good as anyone else at the time. I switched once he implied he was the seer. What else was I supposed to do? Why not imply that those who didn’t switch to Eldiablojoe’s vote are WW’s???

Not at all. Your vote does not make you a WS but it doesn't clear you as not being a WS either.

Also, if you read my earlier post, I included myself on the suspect list since my vote was only the second nies vote. The only ones I think that are off the list are Eldiblojoe, "Don't Panic", Ravenvii, and Nathan.

 

[-aggie-]

Not at all. Your vote does not make you a WS but it doesn't clear you as not being a WS either.

Also, if you read my earlier post, I included myself on the suspect list since my vote was only the second nies vote. The only ones I think that are off the list are Eldiblojoe, "Don't Panic", Ravenvii, and Nathan.

I would like to be able to say that my vote for nies last turn clears me but it was only the second vote.

Sorry, I read that too fast. I thought you were stating it cleared you. After careful reading, it is apparent you’re not saying that, however I had to read it a few times to figure it out. Obviously, you’re using voodoo magic on us!

 

[Moyank24]

Not at all. Your vote does not make you a WS but it doesn't clear you as not being a WS either.

Also, if you read my earlier post, I included myself on the suspect list since my vote was only the second nies vote. The only ones I think that are off the list are Eldiblojoe, "Don't Panic", Ravenvii, and Nathan.

I think the point is, there are reasons why most of us (with the exception of joe) could be the WS. Joe seemingly cleared Raven, who had one of the most questionable votes last round.

As far as Don't Panic and Nathan, neither of those guys are above sacrificing 1 wolf to clear their names, and glide through the lynchings. We just saw it in the last game. Nathan's move basically guaranteed him a win. And it's not like Nies was a huge participator. Maybe the wolves are getting rid of dead weight.

Edit: I'm not saying those 2 are the wolves, I'm saying you may be reading to much into those votes and their order.

 

[jav6454]

i don't think people are voting jav because he didn't vote aggie, but because of who he did vote (and didn't vote, other than aggie) and the purported reasons for it, and in part because of the tone of posting.
to me, the main reason is because when fronted with the option to vote for a self-implied seer who fingered someone as a wolf or the self-implied seer himself, you decided to treat it as SomeOne Else's Problem and chose not to vote.

also, for the record, i noticed that plutonius made a mistake in the reconstruction of the voting history, because he missed an early aggie vote that was later unbolded when he switched.

Let's see, I clearly said, the whole situation was a mess and that I was going to retract until I could figure things out. However, it just happened that Appleguy123 closed the day a few seconds after I posted. Did I know that was going to happen? No

I was about to go ahead and do some math (like I always do) and come back with a rebuttal. I clearly stated this.

Don't believe me? Check. Same time of postings 6:09 PM. Bottom of page 12, Post 295 I believe.



I would like top point out that Eldiablojoe's prediction could well be a Wolf trap. Appleguy123 said there were 3 wolves. Now, we know nies is dead since someone guaranteed his wolfishness. If I am not mistaken, it was I who pioneered sacrificing a wolf to throw off suspicion of the others. This was the third or fourth MRVille game in which abijnk and renewed were my fellow wolf pals (I was the Alpha and infected Rodimus Prime, but we got TO'd). We decided (since suspicion was high on me) that they'd vote for me and look as if they were the saviors.

This was not the last time the strategy was used.

 

[Moyank24]

Let's see, I clearly said, the whole situation was a mess and that I was going to retract until I could figure things out. However, it just happened that Appleguy123 closed the day a few seconds after I posted. Did I know that was going to happen? No

I was about to go ahead and do some math (like I always do) and come back with a rebuttal. I clearly stated this.

Don't believe me? Check. Same time of postings 6:09 PM. Bottom of page 12, Post 295 I believe.



I would like top point out that Eldiablojoe's prediction could well be a Wolf trap. Appleguy123 said there were 3 wolves. Now, we know nies is dead since someone guaranteed his wolfishness. If I am not mistaken, it was I who pioneered sacrificing a wolf to throw off suspicion of the others. This was the third or fourth MRVille game in which abijnk and renewed were my fellow wolf pals (I was the Alpha and infected Rodimus Prime, but we got TO'd). We decided (since suspicion was high on me) that they'd vote for me and look as if they were the saviors.

This was not the last time the strategy was used.

According to the narration the wolves went after Joe, who was protected by a hunter. If we believe the narration, he can't be a wolf. Or do we take the narration with a grain of salt?

Edit: I agree about the wolf sacrifice though...I said in my post above that Don't Panic and Nathan would be prime candidates because of their early votes.

 

[Don't panic]

Let's see, I clearly said, the whole situation was a mess and that I was going to retract until I could figure things out. However, it just happened that Appleguy123 closed the day a few seconds after I posted. Did I know that was going to happen? No

I was about to go ahead and do some math (like I always do) and come back with a rebuttal. I clearly stated this.

Don't believe me? Check. Same time of postings 6:09 PM. Bottom of page 12, Post 295 I believe.



I would like top point out that Eldiablojoe's prediction could well be a Wolf trap. Appleguy123 said there were 3 wolves. Now, we know nies is dead since someone guaranteed his wolfishness. If I am not mistaken, it was I who pioneered sacrificing a wolf to throw off suspicion of the others. This was the third or fourth MRVille game in which abijnk and renewed were my fellow wolf pals (I was the Alpha and infected Rodimus Prime, but we got TO'd). We decided (since suspicion was high on me) that they'd vote for me and look as if they were the saviors.

This was not the last time the strategy was used.

ok, i didn't look at the timestamp, but that actually means that you retracted the vote after the deadline, so it doesn't even count (not that it would have made a difference), but is certainly something to consider.

as far as eldiablo still not be fully clear, that is of course a possibility to keep in mind, as already mentioned by others, including myself and moyank.
however, for now it makes sense to assume he is what he seems to be. unfortunately the only final proof we would get of his being definitively a peasant is if the hunter fail to protect him and he gets killed at night.

and, agrajaggie, my post on jumping on nies' wagon was directed at everyone who voted for him.
I was just adding that it is reasonable to consider more suspect whoever switched after the majority was already on nies (in this case you or moyank), rather than who switched early and directly caused Nies to be lynched. You must agree with this, no?. That of course doesn't mean that a fellow wolf couldn't have seen the tide coming and anticipated the move, or that all the switchers couldn't be bona fide peasants.

 

[-aggie-]

and, agrajaggie, my post on jumping on nies' wagon was directed at everyone who voted for him.
I was just adding that it is reasonable to consider more suspect whoever switched after the majority was already on nies (in this case you or moyank), rather than who switched early and directly caused Nies to be lynched. You must agree with this, no?. That of course doesn't mean that a fellow wolf couldn't have seen the tide coming and anticipated the move, or that all the switchers couldn't be bona fide peasants.

Or that non-voters for nies couldn’t be a WW. What’s your point? Nothing.

 

[jav6454]

ok, i didn't look at the timestamp, but that actually means that you retracted the vote after the deadline, so it doesn't even count (not that it would have made a difference), but is certainly something to consider.

I didn't know the deadline, either way, you are not going to believe me. Also, it was not after the deadline. It was well within the deadline. The deadline was right on the post from appleguy123.

Whats your insistence on me?

 

[Don't panic]

I didn't know the deadline, either way, you are not going to believe me. Also, it was not after the deadline. It was well within the deadline. The deadline was right on the post from appleguy123.

Whats your insistence on me?

easy up guys, breathe. you sound more paranoid than marvin.
If anything, the nervous one should be UCFgrad93, who is currently slated for the gallows.

as i said, it doesn't make much of a difference if it was before or after the dealine, and FWIW i am perfectly willing to believe you that you didn't realize it was after. OK?

btw appleguy, so that everyone is clear, is the deadline tonight at 10pm CST (11pm EST)? thxs.

 

[jav6454]

easy up guys, breathe. you sound more paranoid than marvin.
If anything, the nervous one should be UCFgrad93, who is currently slated for the gallows.

as i said, it doesn't make much of a difference if it was before or after the dealine, and FWIW i am perfectly willing to believe you that you didn't realize it was after. OK?

btw appleguy, so that everyone is clear, is the deadline tonight at 10pm CST (11pm EST)? thxs.

I am not nervous, but I just think its reasonless to vote on me because "I haven't been my usual self" when that got me killed by day 2 or day 3... I want to end a game for once or at least get eaten...

All the reasons against me sound around the likes of "lets get rid of Jav"

 

[Don't panic]

I am not nervous, but I just think its reasonless to vote on me because "I haven't been my usual self" when that got me killed by day 2 or day 3... I want to end a game for once or at least get eaten...

All the reasons against me sound around the likes of "lets get rid of Jav"

why would anyone vote for you just "to get rid of you'?
you have played enough to know that people usually vote for non-personal reasons.
- peasants typically vote who they think most likely is a wolf or, more frequently (esp. when given a limited choice) who they think is less likely a peasant.
- wolves vote in defense, to eliminate a dangerous player, to create a suspect, to get an alibi or just to stay inconspicuous.

in this specific round, i have yet to see any rationale that pointed at Ucfgrad, while I did see some that makes half sense pointing at you, so in my view, you are a better candidate than Ucfgrad. Unless a better, viable main dish of the day comes up and offers itself, i'm staying with it.
for example, this moment, moyank is (IMO) actually a better WW option than you, but she is not a viable candidate right now.

 

[Moyank24]

why would anyone vote for you just "to get rid of you'?
you have played enough to know that people usually vote for non-personal reasons.
- peasants typically vote who they think most likely is a wolf or, more frequently (esp. when given a limited choice) who they think is less likely a peasant.
- wolves vote in defense, to eliminate a dangerous player, to create a suspect, to get an alibi or just to stay inconspicuous.

in this specific round, i have yet to see any rationale that pointed at Ucfgrad, while I did see some that makes half sense pointing at you, so in my view, you are a better candidate than Ucfgrad. Unless a better, viable main dish of the day comes up and offers itself, i'm staying with it.
for example, this moment, moyank is (IMO) actually a better WW option than you, but she is not a viable candidate right now.

I think my rationale, at this point, would be his voting. There really isn't much to go on. He seems to show up only right after appleguy posts, and then disapprears (I could be wrong about that). And last round he was one fo the few to not change his vote. It could be a matter of keeping low profile or just not spending a lot of time online.

I still wouldn't rule out Don't Panic or Nathan either.