Sorry, Apple Vision Pro is dead on arrival

[AlastorKatriona]

Why on earth would you in any way thing apple was expecting mass market success with a $3500 device in a category no one knows What to do with yet…? This is a developer and super fanboy release to get people working with the tech so there’s something for the mainstream when a consumer model comes out in a couple years . People are so shortsighted

You are the one who is short sighted. You don't understand how Apple operates well enough to discuss this. Apple does not prop up failed products, or continue to funnel money into them in the hopes that "the next version" will really take off. That's just not how they do it. Vision Pro has to not just succeed, but excel. On its own, now, with this version. If it does not Apple will indeed pivot away from it.

 

[Korican100]

If you can’t work on the go with an iPad then this won’t work either since it’s iPad vr.

what do you mean by "work on the go"?

 

[AlastorKatriona]

And I think you've missed the point. So there we are.

I haven't, rest assured.

 

[AlastorKatriona]

There aren't any facts yet. That's the problem with posts like yours. No facts.

Eh, there are some facts. Preorder numbers for one. They are estimates, but they are not blind estimates. They are accurate to within a range of + or - 20k units, Enough to indicate (to me, and to Apple, and most people watching who understand how Apple operates) that Apple VR is indeed DOA. But we will watch it play out nonetheless.

 

[progx]

Apple’s VR is dead on arrival.

This is a result of Apple’s poor relationship with app developers and competitors.

As we have now seen all the major companies Apple desperately needs are not only not developing for Vision Pro but are yanking their iPad versions from being compatible too.

I suspect their behaviour with the 27% third party app store fee this week has been the straw that broke the camels back.

Downvote me all you want but these are facts… they have no interest at all supporting Apple’s entry into another new category and continuing their market dominance and for once Apple needs them more than they need Apple.

Apple are screwed.
Vision Pro is dead on arrival.

Save this post and look at it again in two years time, then give me kudos

Someone said the original iPod would fail on this web page before it came out in 2001. I’m sure they got the “kudos” too 😂

 

[AdonisSMU]

You are the one who is short sighted. You don't understand how Apple operates well enough to discuss this. Apple does not prop up failed products, or continue to funnel money into them in the hopes that "the next version" will really take off. That's just not how they do it. Vision Pro has to not just succeed, but excel. On its own, now, with this version. If it does not Apple will indeed pivot away from it.

You mean like how they waited 15 years to finally reveal this product even though it was patented at least as early as 2008.

 

[AdonisSMU]

Eh, there are some facts. Preorder numbers for one. They are estimates, but they are not blind estimates. They are accurate to within a range of + or - 20k units, Enough to indicate (to me, and to Apple, and most people watching who understand how Apple operates) that Apple VR is indeed DOA. But we will watch it play out nonetheless.

The iphone didn’t even sell 180k in the first weekend and that was a far cheaper device with a more immediate use case.

iPhone (1st generation) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[AlastorKatriona]

The iphone didn’t even sell 180k in the first weekend and that was a far cheaper device with a more immediate use case.

iPhone (1st generation) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

To even make that comparison shows how little you understand the conversation.

 

[Eso]

This thing is gonna break a lot of hearts lol

 

[richard371]

At the end of the day no one not even Apple knows how this tech will pan out. People can guess all they want. I need to at least experience it before giving my honest opinion.

 

[AdonisSMU]

To even make that comparison shows how little you understand the conversation.

Please… you missed the point. Youre overinvested in failure and ignoring the facts. I responded to your post about the sales of AVP…

The point is simple. Even without the built in advantages of the iPhone the AVP is still performing well at least from a sales perspective. You said based on preorder numbers AVP was doa. Thats not even close to true. How many other companies getting half a billion in sales in 2 days for gen 1 $3500 device? Thats not doa as you youself put it. 🤷🏾‍♂️ Its just not. Otherwise the iPhone was similarly DOA based on early sales stats. The logic doesnt hold up.

Apple itself seemed to think they could only sell about 400k for the year. Theyve already sold half that in less than a week.

Apple isnt even able to make enough to satiate current demand let alone more than what theyve already sold. 🤪

 

[subjonas]

It doesn't matter from a units sold standpoint but rather total dollars in revenue generated. Apple knows how expensive these units are, they aren't expecting quantity to be anywhere near the launch of prior products that were a fraction of the Vision Pro price. If they are generating a billion dollars in revenue and hitting their forecast, thats all that matters to them. They didn't spend the past 5-10 years in R&D to then discontinue this product especially at the revenue they generated already.

I half agree it’s about sales revenue—the other half is they probably want a lot of units sold because it will mean a bigger market for apps which will bring in more money for Apple.

 

[flottenheimer]

The main challenge with any AR/VR/MR — or Spatial Computing-device, if you insist — is not so much the hardware. Instead it is the complete lack of a killer app, that makes it totally worth regularly strapping a huge device onto your face. Any app. Just one.

After years and years of developers trying to create someting way beyond Beat Saber on other totally capable headsets, it still doesn't exist.
This will hinder mass consumer adoption.

 

[jlnr]

After years and years of developers trying to create someting way beyond Beat Saber on other totally capable headsets, it still doesn't exist.
This will hinder mass consumer adoption.

The one advantage that I can see for Apple is that they also sell cameras. Taking better photos/videos of my toddlers was the only reason I didn't buy an iPhone SE but a fancier one. Having and watching 3D memories in your iCloud could be worth a lot of $$$ to some people.

 

[Abazigal]

The main challenge with any AR/VR/MR — or Spatial Computing-device, if you insist — is not so much the hardware. Instead it is the complete lack of a killer app, that makes it totally worth regularly strapping a huge device onto your face. Any app. Just one.

After years and years of developers trying to create someting way beyond Beat Saber on other totally capable headsets, it still doesn't exist.
This will hinder mass consumer adoption.

I have said it numerous times. I believe the Vision Pro’s killer “app” is immersion. One of which is the ability to record spatial video and effectively relive key moments of one’s life by viewing it on said device. That alone will make some users more than willing to jump through whatever hoops Apple requires of them.

 

[subjonas]

VR has only really been around as a consumer option for under 8 years. Yes, there were precursors that were publicly available, but I wouldn't include anything that doesn't feature reliable 6 DOF tracking of the user's head. And many of those earlier headsets people bring up were in a time where we could barely render simple 3D graphics at a decent frame rate on a traditional monitor, much less two screens at once plus all the image warping necessary.

The tracking technology is now fairly mature, at least for tracking the position of the headset and controllers, but there are many areas that aren't mature, such as visual clarity. PC gaming headsets are good enough for gaming, but for reading text, they aren't even as good as something like a 640*480 monitor. The picture is only relatively clear in the center of the frame, and gets blurrier towards the edges.


I view VR and AR as a spectrum, rather than separate categories. Even my PC VR headset from 2016 had monoscopic passthrough video. The Quest 3 has stereoscopic passthrough. Yes, the Vision Pro has better passthrough than the Quest 3, but it also has better everything else than the Quest 3. I don't see it as being in a fundamentally different category.
If anything, you may be able to say that AR is more mainstream, given that iPhones and iPad have AR capabilities. In fact, the Vision Pro has less AR capabilities than iPhones/iPads.

VR can improve in areas like visual fidelity but point being I think the minimum viable product has been there for awhile, enough to give people a good idea of where it’s going and whether or not it’s something they want (for those who have tried it). Whereas technologies for a minimum viable AR headset are more demanding, which is why it isn’t as far along (we’ll see for how many people the VP is that minimum viable product).

I’m not sure I would put VR and AR on a spectrum. Your headsets were capable of both to varying degrees, but that makes the device hybrid. But the concepts of VR and AR themselves, while having some overlap, I think are fundamentally different. AR takes place in the real world, VR takes place in a virtual world, which to me seem very binary, and more to the point have very different applications. Sure you can superimpose a virtual world on top of the real world to varying degrees like VP’s digital crown can, but the real world itself doesn’t gradually become a virtual world to varying degrees. It’s either covered by VR or it’s not. It’s more akin to split screening and changing the split ratio. Any two things can be viewed side by side with varying split ratios, but that doesn’t mean the two things themselves are on a spectrum.

Also I wouldn’t say AR existing on a mainstream device like a phone necessarily means AR is mainstream. I mean, if you think about it, so does VR—any phone app in which you can look around a virtual world such as a star gazing app. It‘s more about usage. I don’t think AR or VR get a lot of usage on phones because of the limited utility. I’m pretty sure VR has gotten a lot more usage among people in total since those headsets have been accessible for awhile.

 

[svnty6rs3]

Eh, there are some facts. Preorder numbers for one. They are estimates, but they are not blind estimates. They are accurate to within a range of + or - 20k units, Enough to indicate (to me, and to Apple, and most people watching who understand how Apple operates) that Apple VR is indeed DOA. But we will watch it play out nonetheless.

Are there any reports of what apple expected this product to sell in its first weekend on sale to show that the 180k-190k figure from this report would be considered so bad that this product line is DOA?

 

[Pinchdaw]

The same thing happened with Windows Phone. All the big hitters snubbed it. Didn’t turn out well for that platform. Maybe Apple can pull it off but I wouldn’t bet on it unless they give them away free with new iPhones. Most people think headsets are totally goofy. That said, the immersive photo thing could be the killer app. Walking around in your own memories could definitely have mass appeal.

 

[mry110]

So apparently the entire VR headset market in 2023 generated ~$600 million in revenue. Apple generated that with just the preorder.

 

[Basic75]

This thing is gonna break a lot of hearts lol

If people get heartbroken over a piece of superfluous tech they might need to reevaluate their life choices.

 

[gerald.d]

I have said it numerous times. I believe the Vision Pro’s killer “app” is immersion. One of which is the ability to record spatial video and effectively relive key moments of one’s life by viewing it on said device. That alone will make some users more than willing to jump through whatever hoops Apple requires of them.

This will be huge.

But I still don't understand what the platform is for me to share those immersive spatial videos remotely with others, given there is no YouTube app.

I can imagine countless spatial videos that I could create that millions would enjoy watching. How do I distribute those videos?

 

[Abazigal]

This will be huge.

But I still don't understand what the platform is for me to share those immersive spatial videos remotely with others, given there is no YouTube app.

I can imagine countless spatial videos that I could create that millions would enjoy watching. How do I distribute those videos?

There is no YouTube app “yet”. I don’t think there never will be, Google just doesn’t seem to view it as a priority at the moment. At least I don’t think Google is deliberately withholding their app from the Vision Pro the same way Spotify clearly is.

So I guess just give it a bit of time?

 

[gerald.d]

There is no YouTube app “yet”. I don’t think there never will be, Google just doesn’t seem to view it as a priority at the moment. At least I don’t think Google is deliberately withholding their app from the Vision Pro the same way Spotify clearly is.

So I guess just give it a bit of time?

Google are deliberately withholding the app. That's why it won't be available. They literally have to make a conscious effort to prevent it from being automatically available.

YouTubeVR exists as an app and works on 20 million Meta headsets today.

But yes. Give it a bit of time until Google's partnership with Samsung results in a direct competitor to the AVP coming out in the 3rd quarter.

 

[jclardy]

The main challenge with any AR/VR/MR — or Spatial Computing-device, if you insist — is not so much the hardware. Instead it is the complete lack of a killer app, that makes it totally worth regularly strapping a huge device onto your face. Any app. Just one.

After years and years of developers trying to create someting way beyond Beat Saber on other totally capable headsets, it still doesn't exist.
This will hinder mass consumer adoption.

"The Killer App" is a complete myth. The killer app already exists - Safari. What is the "killer app" of the mac that everyone in the world opens every single day? The answer is none other than a web browser. For phones? Web browser. Yeah, TikTok/IG/FB/X/etc all have their followings, but they are tiny in comparison to the number of people opening chrome and safari every day. You can say whatever pro app is the "killer app" but any pro app is used by a tiny fraction of the entire population, and doesn't make the foundation for the platform. If i'm wrong - tell me, what killer app do you and I both have in common on our iPhone's or Mac's, that everyone can't live without?

The true test of a platform is the interface. The iPhone gained marketshare because of UIScrollView - the component that is the bedrock of every successful iOS application since 2007. Bouncing when you drag things up and down smoothly at 60 fps (until higher refresh phones) and enabling pinch to zoom and other gestures. For Vision Pro - this is eye tracking + pinch. Interacting with AR content has always been lackluster because there is nothing to touch, your hands just go right through things. So reaching forward and tapping on something is both tiring and inaccurate, as demonstrated if you've tried the "touchscreen" interface of the Quest 3.

 

[Abazigal]

But yes. Give it a bit of time until Google's partnership with Samsung results in a direct competitor to the AVP coming out in the 3rd quarter.

Samsung is certainly welcome to try.