Flash will not die unless there is some other similar alternative for developers. Surely some of that Flash stuff can be done with Javascript and HTML5, but try to teach Javascript coding to all the graphic designers who are currently doing interactive stuff with that simple graphical user interface of Flash.
I know a lot about what people look at and use on websites, and it is not the silly flash things web designers are so proud of...
I actually have data I use for my business, so I know what kind of components are most compelling, and get the most action.
None of them are flash.
Flash that you describe is something kids use because it is cool and fun. Not because it is practical or makes them money. It is not like all these websites that highly rely on flash are rolling in dough. Most of them are barely existing. Part of that is the over use of flash. Some of the absolute worst websites I have seen have been flash based. So many restaurant websites overuse flash that they are literally costing themselves money, by how poorly they present themselves online. It is a toybox, not a development tool. It could potentially be useful in moderation, but that era is long gone, and you have a whole generation of "web developers" who don't know how to do anything without flash. Which is silly, because flash is a single tool and not a very good one at that, at least not for what most web developers should be doing, and that is designing pages for the users and viewers and not to show off to their friends.
Speed of websites is a core component for a successful website and action and response. Google takes it into account when it ranks web pages for the search engines now. Flash is slow. There are so many valid reasons not to use flash, and get rid of the trickery and gimmicks. Focus on making your site user friendly, and professional, but most importantly usable and easy to find relative information. It doesn't have to look cool, it has to be easy to use and accomplish what the purpose of the website is.
If the only goal of the website is to look cool in the web developer's mind, then, and only then, should flash be a key component.