Tesla Unveils $35,000 Model 3 Electric Car, Shipping Late 2017

[theluggage]

It takes me 10 seconds to fill up my Tesla. I plug it in when I get home. It's charged to 100% when I wake up.

Good for you.

Its absolutely crystal clear that if you only use your car for commuting or day trips comfortably within its reliable range then an EV will be perfect.

I know and understand that there are plenty of people in that situation. What you don't seem to get is that there are plenty of people who are not in that situation and for whom the ability to make several > 200 mile journeys a year is (a) important and (b) their main justification for paying $30k+ for a nice comfy car with all the trimmings, when far cheaper 'get you to work & back' runabouts are available.

Yes, you can do a 400 mile round trip in a Tesla, if you plan your route around superchargers and pick a destination with charging facilities. No, that's not rocket science and very much a "first world problem" - but you could buy a ICE for less money and simply not have the issue.

...also remember that its only the high mileage folks who are likely to see any actual savings on fuel/Total Cost of Ownership once the price of the car has been factored in.

I'm not totally anti (I'd actually love an EV if it were practical) - but the two things that would swing me would be 200 miles minimum range (not "200 miles asterisk/if/when/maybe/small print/disclaimer") and a still lower price (the Telsa 3 is still at the high end of the premium 'luxury compact' market - you can get, say, a Mini with a bunch of extras for the base Tesla price, although it will depend a lot on what government grants are available and what the base spec is like when the car is released ~2018). If the price comes down to the point where I might actually save on TCO then I'd be more willing to adapt my travel habits...

 

[jlc1978]

It's possible the final production car might have some changes to the front end. The model X seemed to have some differences between the car at the unveiling and the car that is in production today. Watch this space!

I hope so because right now it detracts from the overall smooth lines of the car.

 

[smacrumon]

I hope so because right now it detracts from the overall smooth lines of the car.

The initial unveiling:

The production:

 

[Dmunjal]

Good for you.

Its absolutely crystal clear that if you only use your car for commuting or day trips comfortably within its reliable range then an EV will be perfect.

I know and understand that there are plenty of people in that situation. What you don't seem to get is that there are plenty of people who are not in that situation and for whom the ability to make several > 200 mile journeys a year is (a) important and (b) their main justification for paying $30k+ for a nice comfy car with all the trimmings, when far cheaper 'get you to work & back' runabouts are available.

Yes, you can do a 400 mile round trip in a Tesla, if you plan your route around superchargers and pick a destination with charging facilities. No, that's not rocket science and very much a "first world problem" - but you could buy a ICE for less money and simply not have the issue.

...also remember that its only the high mileage folks who are likely to see any actual savings on fuel/Total Cost of Ownership once the price of the car has been factored in.

I'm not totally anti (I'd actually love an EV if it were practical) - but the two things that would swing me would be 200 miles minimum range (not "200 miles asterisk/if/when/maybe/small print/disclaimer") and a still lower price (the Telsa 3 is still at the high end of the premium 'luxury compact' market - you can get, say, a Mini with a bunch of extras for the base Tesla price, although it will depend a lot on what government grants are available and what the base spec is like when the car is released ~2018). If the price comes down to the point where I might actually save on TCO then I'd be more willing to adapt my travel habits...

I actually think most people are like me. Most people work and commute. I have taken a few long trips with my car in the past three years and I've never had an issue waiting 30 minutes for a supercharge. The money I save on gas during that trip allows me have a nice meal instead of fast food.

As for TCO, there is no contest. Even with gas around $2.50, I pay 10 cents a kwhr (in CA) which fills up my car for $8.50. That gets me a real world 250 miles. An ICE with 10 gallons of gas would cost $25 to go the same distance.

In addition, I have had zero maintenance expense over three years and 40k miles except tires and wipers.

Of course, there are cheaper ICE vehicles but most people shopping for a Model S are buying Audi, BMW, and Mercedes. The same goes for a Model 3.

 

[Julien]

...In addition, I have had zero maintenance expense over three years and 40k miles except tires and wipers....

This is one of the BIGEST and most overlooked advantages in an EV. If you add all in the time and costs of oil changes/routine maintenance in the life of owning a car it would make owning a EV more on par in over all costs.

 

[smacrumon]

I actually think most people are like me. Most people work and commute. I have taken a few long trips with my car in the past three years and I've never had an issue waiting 30 minutes for a supercharge. The money I save on gas during that trip allows me have a nice meal instead of fast food.

As for TCO, there is no contest. Even with gas around $2.50, I pay 10 cents a kwhr (in CA) which fills up my car for $8.50. That gets me a real world 250 miles. An ICE with 10 gallons of gas would cost $25 to go the same distance.

In addition, I have had zero maintenance expense over three years and 40k miles except tires and wipers.

Of course, there are cheaper ICE vehicles but most people shopping for a Model S are buying Audi, BMW, and Mercedes. The same goes for a Model 3.

Good for you.

Its absolutely crystal clear that if you only use your car for commuting or day trips comfortably within its reliable range then an EV will be perfect.

I know and understand that there are plenty of people in that situation. What you don't seem to get is that there are plenty of people who are not in that situation and for whom the ability to make several > 200 mile journeys a year is (a) important and (b) their main justification for paying $30k+ for a nice comfy car with all the trimmings, when far cheaper 'get you to work & back' runabouts are available.

Yes, you can do a 400 mile round trip in a Tesla, if you plan your route around superchargers and pick a destination with charging facilities. No, that's not rocket science and very much a "first world problem" - but you could buy a ICE for less money and simply not have the issue.

...also remember that its only the high mileage folks who are likely to see any actual savings on fuel/Total Cost of Ownership once the price of the car has been factored in.

I'm not totally anti (I'd actually love an EV if it were practical) - but the two things that would swing me would be 200 miles minimum range (not "200 miles asterisk/if/when/maybe/small print/disclaimer") and a still lower price (the Telsa 3 is still at the high end of the premium 'luxury compact' market - you can get, say, a Mini with a bunch of extras for the base Tesla price, although it will depend a lot on what government grants are available and what the base spec is like when the car is released ~2018). If the price comes down to the point where I might actually save on TCO then I'd be more willing to adapt my travel habits...

EV is very practical and in reach for loads of drivers as of Friday past.

If you're doing 200+ mile journeys in one go, then you're probably well over needing to take a coffee break, that's almost 3 1/2 hours constant freeway driving. That's too dangerous not to be pitting in and recharging yourself while your car is recharging if recharging is actually required.

No, everyone with a Tesla will be seeing savings from day one. With a Tesla, owners will be free from ever needing to open their wallets ($$$$) and change and replace again and again... the engine oil (gone!), fuel filter (gone!), radiator (gone!), air cleaner (gone!), spark plugs (gone!), anti freeze and coolant (gone!), timing belt (gone!), rusted out exhaust (gone!), catalytic converter (gone!), and so on.

This Model 3 is a no brainer for all drivers. Tesla deserves all the success it is seeking.

 

[AppleScruff1]

EV is very practical and in reach for loads of drivers as of Friday past.

If you're doing 200+ mile journeys in one go, then you're probably well over needing to take a coffee break, that's almost 3 1/2 hours constant freeway driving. That's too dangerous not to be pitting in and recharging yourself while your car is recharging if recharging is actually required.

No, everyone with a Tesla will be seeing savings from day one. With a Tesla, owners will be free from ever needing to open their wallets ($$$$) and change and replace again and again... the engine oil (gone!), fuel filter (gone!), radiator (gone!), air cleaner (gone!), spark plugs (gone!), anti freeze and coolant (gone!), timing belt (gone!), rusted out exhaust (gone!), catalytic converter (gone!), and so on.

This Model 3 is a no brainer for all drivers. Tesla deserves all the success it is seeking.

There is no one vehicle that is a no brainier for all drivers.
[doublepost=1459704982][/doublepost]Compare gas vs electric costs in your state.

http://energy.gov/articles/egallon-how-much-cheaper-it-drive-electricity

 

[Dmunjal]

There is no one vehicle that is a no brainier for all drivers.
[doublepost=1459704982][/doublepost]Compare gas vs electric costs in your state.

http://energy.gov/articles/egallon-how-much-cheaper-it-drive-electricity

I don't trust these numbers. They do not take I to account TOU plans which are available in many states. If you mostly charge at night which most will do, the savings are even greater.

HOW DOES “OFF-PEAK” CHARGING AFFECT THE EGALLON PRICE?

In some places consumers are charged “off-peak” rates for fueling their electric vehicles at night when electricity demand is low. This “off-peak” electricity rate leads to even bigger cost savings for driving on electricity. The eGallon is based on the average cost of electricity for residential consumers.

 

[AppleScruff1]

I don't trust these numbers. They do not take I to account TOU plans which are available in many states. If you mostly charge at night which most will do, the savings are even greater.

HOW DOES “OFF-PEAK” CHARGING AFFECT THE EGALLON PRICE?

In some places consumers are charged “off-peak” rates for fueling their electric vehicles at night when electricity demand is low. This “off-peak” electricity rate leads to even bigger cost savings for driving on electricity. The eGallon is based on the average cost of electricity for residential consumers.

I'm in the Boston area and our electric rates are higher than average. I don't know if off peak rates are offered around here, I know they aren't in my town.

I remember when the Prius was picking up steam several years back I read it would have taken well over 100,000 miles of driving to pay the cost difference between it and the comparable gas vehicle. I don't know where it stands today.

There is a lot that goes into the gas vs EV debate. If EV use gets to be a large percentage, you know there will be a road use tax, just like there is with gas. The highway maintenance money is going to come from somewhere. Some fossil fuel is used to generate electricity. We are at the infant stage right now. The next decade or two will be interesting. I firmly believe that if the US had gotten serious after the first energy crisis back in 1973 we would be energy independent today.

 

[Dmunjal]

I'm in the Boston area and our electric rates are higher than average. I don't know if off peak rates are offered around here, I know they aren't in my town.

I remember when the Prius was picking up steam several years back I read it would have taken well over 100,000 miles of driving to pay the cost difference between it and the comparable gas vehicle. I don't know where it stands today.

There is a lot that goes into the gas vs EV debate. If EV use gets to be a large percentage, you know there will be a road use tax, just like there is with gas. The highway maintenance money is going to come from somewhere. Some fossil fuel is used to generate electricity. We are at the infant stage right now. The next decade or two will be interesting. I firmly believe that if the US had gotten serious after the first energy crisis back in 1973 we would be energy independent today.

In California, we have an EV rate of 10 cents per kwhr for unlimited use from 11pm to 7am.

 

[Michaelgtrusa]

Model 3 design sketches

 

[smacrumon]

There is no one vehicle that is a no brainier for all drivers.
[doublepost=1459704982][/doublepost]Compare gas vs electric costs in your state.

http://energy.gov/articles/egallon-how-much-cheaper-it-drive-electricity

I rephrase, Model 3 is a no brainer.
Thanks for that tool. Doing well in my state. Apart from that, the ongoing running costs blow traditional vehicles out of the water. No nonsense under the bonnet, or what I'm calling combustion engine bloatware from last century.
Viva la Tesla! Completely enthusiastic about this!

 

[jlc1978]

I rephrase, Model 3 is a no brainer.
Thanks for that tool. Doing well in my state. Apart from that, the ongoing running costs blow traditional vehicles out of the water. No nonsense under the bonnet, or what I'm calling combustion engine bloatware from last century.
Viva la Tesla! Completely enthusiastic about this!

One area that will be interesting to see play out is how states start charging EVs to replace gas taxes. Washington, IIRC, currently charges $100/ year a relatively small amount, but as EVs begin to constitute a larger percentage of vehicles that will probably rise to replace lost gas tax revenue.

As more charging occurs at night electricity prices will rise to cover the cost of more expensive generation that is currently shut down at night since you essentially will have another late night peak period.

As a result the TOC calculation used today may need adjustment in the future.

I do agree the lack of of an ICE removes a lot of maintenance costs, but you'll still have brakes and tires, hydraulic fluid for brakes, battery water and coolant and assort compressors that can fail, not to mention the battery. While there are fewer moving parts there still are enough to consider potential failure modes and costs associated with them.

 

[smacrumon]

One area that will be interesting to see play out is how states start charging EVs to replace gas taxes. Washington, IIRC, currently charges $100/ year a relatively small amount, but as EVs begin to constitute a larger percentage of vehicles that will probably rise to replace lost gas tax revenue.

As more charging occurs at night electricity prices will rise to cover the cost of more expensive generation that is currently shut down at night since you essentially will have another late night peak period.

As a result the TOC calculation used today may need adjustment in the future.

I do agree the lack of of an ICE removes a lot of maintenance costs, but you'll still have brakes and tires, hydraulic fluid for brakes, battery water and coolant and assort compressors that can fail, not to mention the battery. While there are fewer moving parts there still are enough to consider potential failure modes and costs associated with them.

Have you seen the Tesla with the cabin removed in person or in pictures. It's great. There's not just fewer moving parts, there's basically no moving parts. They've essentially removed 99% of the rubbish under the hood of old style cars. It's funny to say, but it's really impressive to see nothing but open space there. The 1% that is there powering the car is an insanely simple setup. Maintenance is more or less non existent as it should be. The Tesla also comes with a 4 and 8 year warrantee which is reassuring. If I can charge my Tesla with solar at a shopping centre or while down at the beach, there's going to he some pretty great cost savings and users won't need to tap into the grid as well. As for taxes, well taxes will always need to be paid, but they maybe leavied from elsewhere. In fact taxes could be levied on ICE vehicles to promote a shift to EV even sooner if we are serious about the future.

 

[subjonas]

You musk take my money!

 

[OldSchoolMacGuy]

Yes, of course they have a loss - because they're investing their profits and more into future production capability. This has nothing to do with the profitability per car sold. Come on now, don't try to FUD people with this BS.

My comments were never about profitability (and that article clearly states that they lost $4k per vehicle, that's not a profit). My comment was that the company is far from profitable, which is very much the case.

Analysts expect the first cars will sell for an average of $50,000-$60,000 so we'll see how those that placed preorders react when they see those prices rather than the $35k they expected.

Analysts also believe that Tesla may not be able to fulfill many of the early orders before 2019: "Demand was never really our concern, it is more about execution and getting production up to meet demand."

 

[Dmunjal]

My comments were never about profitability (and that article clearly states that they lost $4k per vehicle, that's not a profit). My comment was that the company is far from profitable, which is very much the case.

Analysts expect the first cars will sell for an average of $50,000-$60,000 so we'll see how those that placed preorders react when they see those prices rather than the $35k they expected.

Analysts also believe that Tesla may not be able to fulfill many of the early orders before 2019: "Demand was never really our concern, it is more about execution and getting production up to meet demand."

I remember hearing Elon Musk say that there is no reason to be profitable yet given the huge opportunity in front of them. Not to mention the low cost of money. Investing and scaling to build 500k cars is no easy task.

This is how Silicon Valley works, btw. Companies go years without profits to scale as fast as they can. And they switch to profits after growth plateaus.

 

[Julien]

Preorders up to 276,000 today. Even slowing down should easily hit well over 300,000 next week. $300,000,000 interest free loan should go a LONG way on retooling and motivating parts suppliers.

http://www.theverge.com/2016/4/2/11353146/tesla-model-3-preorder-update-elon-musk-tweet

 

[jlc1978]

As for taxes, well taxes will always need to be paid, but they maybe leavied from elsewhere. In fact taxes could be levied on ICE vehicles to promote a shift to EV even sooner if we are serious about the future.

For road use taxes there'll have to be a shift to higher ones on EVs as they begin to constitute a great percentage of the vehicles. The point of them is to cover road maintenance and construction, not encourage one type fuel over another.

As for charging, it'll be interesting to see how that works out, and if the free stations stay that way once demand picks up as more EVs are on the road. Right now, those I see at shopping centers are usually empty, but they only have a few stalls there. If demand picks up to the point where they are pretty much always in use it will result in an interesting question. i.e. "what will consumer reaction be if they got used to charging always available and find out the stalls are usually occupied and they desperately need a change since they expected one to be free?"

It will be interesting to see the change in driver behavior when EVs become more common.

 

[AppleScruff1]

Have you seen the Tesla with the cabin removed in person or in pictures. It's great. There's not just fewer moving parts, there's basically no moving parts. They've essentially removed 99% of the rubbish under the hood of old style cars. It's funny to say, but it's really impressive to see nothing but open space there. The 1% that is there powering the car is an insanely simple setup. Maintenance is more or less non existent as it should be. The Tesla also comes with a 4 and 8 year warrantee which is reassuring. If I can charge my Tesla with solar at a shopping centre or while down at the beach, there's going to he some pretty great cost savings and users won't need to tap into the grid as well. As for taxes, well taxes will always need to be paid, but they maybe leavied from elsewhere. In fact taxes could be levied on ICE vehicles to promote a shift to EV even sooner if we are serious about the future.

I was amazed at what it looked like with only the chassis. So simple and efficient. On a side note, what is happening in the hydrogen cell area?

 

[jlc1978]

This is how Silicon Valley works, btw. Companies go years without profits to scale as fast as they can. And they switch to profits after growth plateaus.

Except Tesla is not a technology company, it is a manufacturing company that doesn't scale like a tech company.

 

[Dmunjal]

Except Tesla is not a technology company, it is a manufacturing company that doesn't scale like a tech company.

How do you define that? Tesla was founded and based in Silicon Valley. It has plenty of software developers. It is spending tons on R&D like a technology company. Their competitive differentiator is the BMS which is all software. Show me another manufacturing company growing 60% CAGR? They are very much a technology company.

 

[jlc1978]

How do you define that? Tesla was founded and based in Silicon Valley. It has plenty of software developers. It is spending tons on R&D like a technology company. Their competitive differentiator is the BMS which is all software. Show me another manufacturing company growing 60% CAGR? They are very much a technology company.

In the end, they build cars, which is manufacturing industry. Being founded in Silicon Valley ha nothing to do with it. BMW for example, also employs a lot of programers and spends tons on R&D. Even with software they still have to manufacture the car that uses the software. In the end, Tesla actually has to actually build a lot of cars and sell them at a profit to stay in business, something they have yet to do. It's easy to have a CAGR of 60% when you start from zero and are still tiny compared to other car companies. Sustain that when you're selling 2 million cars a year and I'll be impressed.

In answer to your question about a manufacturing company having a CAGR >60%,BMW saw a 65% growth in their i Class vehicle sales in 2015 so for that niche they also had a >60% CAGR.

Another manufacturing company that meets your growth rate is ZCL Composites Inc.

 

[KopThat]

$35,000 USD is the game changer, who cares if some people don't like the front, this car will make Tesla become a real player.

There still needs to be a lot more infrastructure built, but 360km range is plenty for a weekly commute and weekend outings, and would mostly be charging at home a couple of times a week.

8 years battery life is not a biggie either, most people keep a car for 3 to 5 years, and a battery replacement would be around $3,000 for those down further down the life of the vehicle.

 

[jujufreeze]

Could Apple buy Tesla Motors?