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Tesla Unveils $35,000 Model 3 Electric Car, Shipping Late 2017
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You don't take into account the cost in dignity, which is enormous, of going inside that washer-machine-soap's-bottle-like car.
And those of us who have known BMWs know the headaches they are, the hours that they spend under repairs (not too bad when they are under their small 4 year warranty), and the amount of maintenance that is required for that performance.
Personally, I would pick a Tesla over a BMW ANY DAY! I do think BMW has nicer leathers and have very good refinements for comfort, but there is a reason why the depreciate so fast.. HORRIBLe quality and horrible interface!
This is why an Apple car has so much potential!
I expect we'll see taxes based on miles driven. Or just more toll roads. The new taxes will hit EV owners up for road maintenance, but I don't think the new taxes will be on EV owners only.
ICE owners will just be taxed twice. Once at the pump, and again based on miles driven. EV owners will still bypass the gasoline tax. By the time EV's are the norm and ICE cars are the minority, most of the revenue will come from EV's.
Those who still insist on driving ICE cars probably won't complain too loudly about the double taxation. They are the same kinds of people who buy gas-guzzlers today. They make informed decisions based on the criteria that are important to them, even if those criteria are incomprehensible to some others of us who gravitate to cars with high gas mileage or alternative fuels.
The cost of one's dignity is completely lost when you know better but choose to step into a vehicle of yesterday that's packing trash under the hood and spewing that trash as it moves along.
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I believe your comments are false. Could you please provide sources for your "analysts" that suggest "Analysts expect the first cars will sell for an average of $50,000-$60,000" and "Analysts also believe that Tesla may not be able to fulfill many of the early orders before 2019". The entry model is $35000. First orders are expected to be delivered late 2017. If you can't support your claims, please edit those details in your comment.
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I actually don't know much about the hydrogen cell front. I believe Honda to be in that game, but aren't clued up any further unfortunately.
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That's a good point.
Heh, yes, I suppose it does. But that's not such a bad thing... often better than flat. But, it's not so much that it's missing a grill, but that something just isn't quite right about the look. Maybe, that was purposely done to make it look a bit cheaper and more 'plastic.'
Unless they purposely make them break, an electric car should be much more reliable, and for the most part, cheaper to repair. That's one of the main reasons I'm interested in them... well, that and the performance!
Yea, I'm not so sold on that either. The techie in me likes it, but in reality, it's much easier to deal with knobs and switches while driving.
No kidding, you could *easily* recoup that $1000 and then some by selling your place in line. And, yes, given the S, I don't think there's much doubt they can deliver a good product, so long as the finances work out OK.
As I said above, it's not so much about it not having a grill, but that something is just kind of off about the look. There are ICE cars that don't have grills too, BTW. The Model S doesn't need a grill either, but the front end looks much nicer.
Hmm, one of the best values in car ownership was my BMW. In the later-90s I bought an 80s** 325i for like $4200. I drove it for a few years (a lot, as I drove between Columbus OH and Appleton, WI about every other week, as well as around to client sites in both places). When I got married and we moved to the west coast, we only needed one car, and my wife's was newer, so I sold it for $3900. Aside from a couple of small self-repairs (like taking window switches apart and cleaning the contacts), I think my only maintenance was a thermostat, some brake pads, and a set of tires.
It was also one of the nicest cars to drive that I've owned as well (and I've had some nice other cars like a Porsche 928, Mazda Miata, and current VW Jetta TDI... which despite the scandal, is a joy to drive). I'd take it ANY day over a brand new Ford, GM, or even Toyota you typically get as a rental car.
That said, yea, I'd buy a Tesla in a heart-beat if I was currently able to. It should be very low maintenance and would probably give my former 928 a run for it's money in terms of performance. What's not to like?
Maybe if VW ends up buying back the Jetta, I'll be headed in that direction.** Heh, trying to remember the year... it was an E30.
Are you for real? Come on, seriously, fanatics on both sides are groups of overgrown drama queens fighting each other, it is a hoot.
What heap-of-junk ICE cars are people buying that need significant maintenance (other than tyres, lights, brakes, air con, wipers etc.) in the first 3 years (and/or don't come with some sort of free service plan for the first few years)? How much are you paying for 1-2 oil changes?
Thing is, with current EVs, the premium on the purchase price c.f. a comparable ICE car wipes out any possible saving (at least for private purchases - if its for business then maybe there are accounting benefits). The Model S sort-of gets around that by pitching for the less price-sensitive luxury sedan market (which also means the competitors guzzle more fuel and, at least in the UK, have higher annual car tax).
With the Model 3, we just don't know what the target is yet: as I posted earlier, the model 3 base price will get you a compact from Mini (BMW) plus $5k worth of extras. The current government incentives will pay for the extras, so maybe you will be straight in to fuel savings. But: will those incentives (and free/discount charging) survive news of hundreds of thousands of orders for Model 3s (it's already been cut by £500 in the UK and could go away in 2018)? Will the "fit & finish" of the 3 actually be in the 'luxury compact' league? Is the base model a viable option, or will it take $10k of options to get a decent car? What will the depreciation be like c.f. an ICE car? (My prediction: in the first year or two, some of the people who've pre-ordered will sell their cars for more than they paid because of the hype and waiting list. Later, they might become unsellable as newer models with dramatically better tech appear and the end of the battery warranty looms & Tesla will have to run a lossmaking 'upgrade' scheme to secure new orders).
I doubt it, a more likely scenario is a split taxation one; ICE pay gas taxes and EVs a use tax; with the use tax a revenue offset for lost gas tax money. Completely ending the gas tax and gain for a use tax would be another solution but hard ti implement because how do track use? There is no easy way to determine miles driven and setting up a tracking system would be a nightmare politically as well as economically, so some will pay more than their share of use and other less. You could create a mileage station similar to the emission station some areas have due to air quality, with everyone getting a required mileage check that the state gets, or require EV's to develop a reporting system for miles driven and use the OBDII on ICEs.
They won't mind until they get the bill, and then they will scream.
Under your system, ICE car drivers with high MPG ratings will get more miles of road use per taxed gallon of fuel, but the ICE will exempt them from paying the use tax. And how will hybrid car drivers be assessed? If their driving is 90% electric and 10% gas, will they only pay 90% of the use tax? What if their driving is 90% gasoline and 10% electric? How about traditional hybrid cars like the Prius or Insight, where the electric assist is working in tandem with the ICE?
Others have replied, but I will add... after federal and state tax incentives, plus negotiations ($10k off MSRP) our BMW i3 cost $60/month to lease. We save over $100/month in gas. Over two years I will make a net savings of at least $1k. We have two i3s since both of us work. All our commuting is now electric. I know some people who made a profit after tax incentives because they are better negotiators than me ($13k off MSRP).
For longer trips, the money saved will rent several weeks worth of gas car rentals from Hertz or SIXT. You can rent a Mercedes C-Class for $35/day, sometimes less, in Atlanta.
BMW also provides an "Alternate Mobility Program" where you bring your i3 to the dealer and you get a gas loaner car for free, up to 14 days per year, unlimited miles. We've used this several times and have received 328, x3 or x5 loaners.
I don't think there is really an excuse anymore if you actually looked into the details.
Later this year BMW is moving to battery packs with 50% more range so you'll get over 120 miles. I imagine in the following couple years they will move to the the new Samsung 120ah cells which will double current range to nearly 200 miles. Plus with their Range Extender, you can just put gas in for longer trips.
I have put a deposit in for a Model 3, but if the pricing is like the BMW 3 series, residuals for leases like the Model S (48% over 36 months) and there is no extension to the Federal tax incentive, I'm not sure I would want to pay $600-$900 / month to finance or lease the Model 3. I would probably stick to the i3 where I can negotiate substantial discounts (~20% off MSRP) and still take advantage of the tax incentives.
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You bring up some very good points about the issues the shift from ICE to Hybrid / EV vehicles must address. Right now the number of hybrids and EVs is small enough that they have no real impact on taxes collected. Add that to the general unwillingness of politicians to address issues in advance, especially when they involve taxation, and a solution probably won't be generated until the revenue collection is at a critical level.
Personally, I think a tax based on actual mileage driven, with no fuel tax for road use, is the fairest, since it probably represents the actual impact of the vehicle on the infrastructure. Such a system would also allow higher rates baed on GVW, similar to the reason trucks are taxed at a much higher rate.
The challenge is how to collect the data and minimize a tax surprise at tax time. There is no easy solution. You could have the vehicle record mileage and report it via an automatic link or an annual inspection.
If you wanted to collect the tax at time of refuel, you could keep the gas tax and add a meter at the recharge station, in home or at a retail location, that records the energy use dedicated to charging and simply adds the tax to the utility bill.
Either solution requires changes to infrastructure which means costs to implement and maintain as well as raise privacy concerns as well; and I doubt if there is an easy to implement solution that addresses the need to fund road maintenance as the traditional way of raising funds begins to dry out.
You bring up some very good points about the issues the shift from ICE to Hybrid / EV vehicles must address. Right now the number of hybrids and EVs is small enough that they have no real impact on taxes collected. Add that to the general unwillingness of politicians to address issues in advance, especially when they involve taxation, and a solution probably won't be generated until the revenue collection is at a critical level.
Personally, I think a tax based on actual mileage driven, with no fuel tax for road use, is the fairest, since it probably represents the actual impact of the vehicle on the infrastructure. Such a system would also allow higher rates baed on GVW, similar to the reason trucks are taxed at a much higher rate.
The challenge is how to collect the data and minimize a tax surprise at tax time. There is no easy solution. You could have the vehicle record mileage and report it via an automatic link or an annual inspection.
If you wanted to collect the tax at time of refuel, you could keep the gas tax and add a meter at the recharge station, in home or at a retail location, that records the energy use dedicated to charging and simply adds the tax to the utility bill.
Either solution requires changes to infrastructure which means costs to implement and maintain as well as raise privacy concerns as well; and I doubt if there is an easy to implement solution that addresses the need to fund road maintenance as the traditional way of raising funds begins to dry out.
In Georgia, which has the second highest EV use outside of California, they passed a law last year imposing an annual $200 fee for EVs. This was to make up the lost revenue from the gas tax. The way it was calculated was a bit ridiculous and is probably 3x what it should be.
$60/month
= $720/year
= $7,200 over 10 years.
... on a MSRP $40K car?
... seriously?
I'd go for that - in fact I'd get the Range Extender, fill the ruddy tank with single malt and still save money. Where do I sign, which finger do I take the blood from and what do I do if I don't have a first born son to trade?
I like the i3. I'd get one if I could have it for $60/month. Sadly, that figure just doesn't pass the credibility test.
Yes but those are in any car. But you'd still have lesser costs with fixing it with the other stuff.
I'm wondering how much an entire new battery would cost though when that gives out.
24 month BMW Owners Choice (which is like a lease, but slightly different that it allows you to claim the tax incentive instead of BMW). Here are the figures I got last spring.
MSRP $50,350
-$9,000 off due to negotiations
-$1,000 BMW coupon for attending a free "Ultimate Driving Event"
=$40,350 cap cost.
+$5,370 fees, finance charge, Georgia TAVT
-$7,500 Federal tax incentive
-$5,000 Georgia tax incentive (no longer available though)
=$33,220
63% residual after 24 months with 10k miles per year
= $31,720.5 (contracted value of the car after 24 months when I return to BMW)
$31,720.50 - $33,220 = ~$1500
net cost for 24 month lease.
$1,500 / 24 = net monthly about $62.50.
I did have to pay more upfront until I got the tax refunds. You can also adjust your withholdings as well to offset it.
There was an article that broke it down for California residents that got $130/month.
http://leasehackr.com/blog/2015/11/...a-bmw-i3-for-about-100month-0-down-yes-really
To bring it back to Tesla, by the time I get my Model 3 in 2018 or 2019, I think the Federal tax incentive will be gone, making the price significantly higher. It will probably be much cheaper to get another BMW.
I calculated a $42k Model 3 with 48% residuals (using the existing Model S residual calculations) over 36 months to cost about $786 / month. I would probably want all the options, making the payment about $900/month. Assuming the tax incentive would be gone by then.
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And when are most people going to be charging their cars? At night. So you'd have to factor in ADDITIONAL infrastructure to store that energy for later use including the impact of birth/care/disposal for that storage.
Are all parts of the country viable for solar? No.
Are all home roofs oriented properly for solar? No.
Are all home roofs conducive to mounting panels to them without causing long term issues for the homeowner? No.
Here in AZ the utility companies are now fighting solar as it is cutting into their revenue.
Look, I'm all for solar. Have over 600 watts on my RV, but the bottomline, it is not the be all end all to left shifting automotive transportation from fossil fuel to electricity.
And that's why Musk is also developing battery storage. Charge your car and battery at night when there is surplus energy and use it during the day to supplement solar when weather issues exist. It's more of a distributed energy generation method than the current centralized one.
There is no magic bullet but EVs opens up so many choices to charge because it uses ubiquitous electricity. ICE cars are dependent on one source, fossil fuels. Much of it from countries that don't like us and causes greenhouse gas emissions.
EVs can use solar, wind, therm, natural gas, nuclear, and even coal.