Tesla Unveils $35,000 Model 3 Electric Car, Shipping Late 2017

[Tummy]

And when are most people going to be charging their cars? At night. So you'd have to factor in ADDITIONAL infrastructure to store that energy for later use including the impact of birth/care/disposal for that storage.

http://cleantechnica.com/2014/02/03/grid-capacity-electric-vehicles-actually-problem-studies-find/

"In fact, Navigant says, the power grid we have right now can sustain millions of electric vehicles without anyone having to invest in new power generation."

Most EV owners charge at night when there is less demand. Right now, the grid has a great over capacity during most times to be able to handle the few days where there are spikes in demand. If there is a large increase in EVs, then power demand may actually become more stable throughout the day. It's also possible to use the EV batteries as a distributed storage mechanism, to help meet peak demand. I believe they are looking at that in a program with PG&E in San Francisco.

 

[tbrinkma]

a) a car should last much longer than 8 years, or it will start loosing value rather drasticly after just a few years

b) that warranty covers the much more expensive current models which may allready have those costs factored in, lets wait and see how conditions are for the 3

c) at which point does Tesla consider a battery defect under warranty ?

My point of entry on this is that the lease for an BMW i3 is about as twice as for a (specced up) Mini with the same sticker price.

The poster you responded to said "8 year <b>warranty</b>", not '8 year lifespan'.

The powertrain in a typical car sold in the US has something like a 3-7 year warranty. Does that mean you expect the engine and transmission to die after 3 years?
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Could.Not.Care.Less

And.Yet.You.Feel.The.Undeniable.Need.To.Tell.Everyone.That

 

[PaulRustad007]

How long is the average time for a 'fill-up' in this model?

 

[tbrinkma]

I don't disagree with that view either. I doubt there is any real added savings on an internal combustion engine with body design. The engine in and of itself is wasteful. I believe I remember hearing only 1% of the fuel in the tank is used to propel the passengers. The rest for everything else. If body design was the magical fix for economy issues, we would have seen severe design changes like this by now. Just my $.02.

A 'normal', ICE automobile is actually about 12-16% efficient, measured tank to road.
Hybrids squeeze a bit more out of the equation.
Electrics are generally speaking, 90%+ efficient, measured wall to road.

 

[Oilbrnr]

If I can charge my Tesla with solar at a shopping centre or while down at the beach, there's going to he some pretty great cost savings and users won't need to tap into the grid as well.

You obviously have no clue as to the capacity of solar generation and the limitations thereof.

 

[tbrinkma]

I think a few things are at play:

1. Perception. Even though a significant amount of the driving done with an ICE could be done with a Tesla without any problem, people see the 200 mile range and focus on the limitations, not the reality of their driving

Yep. It's a perception problem more than an actual limitation in practice.

2. 75 minutes to charge is a long time. If you go on a 600 mile trip that's 2.5 hours added on to a trip, which is significant since you've gone from ~10 to ~12+ hours

A 600 mile trip is unlikely to take just 10 hours, unless you can pull out of your driveway directly onto the highway, and pull *off* of the highway directly at your destination. And, of course, most people already make a number of stops along the way (bathroom, stretch legs, grab food, etc.). In practice, the 150-minutes worth of charging stops would only *add* about 40-50 minutes to the typical 600 mile trip.

3. Superchargers work fine now with a small set of users. Sell 100K Model 3's and all of a sudden you have a bandwidth issue; especially in areas where owners can use the station in lieu of charging at home.

Unsurprisingly, the folks at Tesla have already taken this into account. The supercharger network is scheduled to more than double in size by the time the Model 3 starts rolling of production lines, and they'll continue expanding it after that.

4. What happens when you get to your destination and it is a hotel and you need to charge? You don't want to drive ti a station, wait an hour, and then drive back.

More and more often, you'll be able to pull into a charging space *at* your destination (especially when it's a hotel), and charge while you sleep.

All off these issues can be overcome in time; but right now they limit the appeal of a Tesla beyond the "cool, i have an EV" crowd.

They certainly limit the appeal for the people who lack the foresight to do a modicum of planning.

 

[Julien]

How long is the average time for a 'fill-up' in this model?

From a Tesla Supercharger station it would be a little less than an ½ hour from near empty to about 80%.

 

[jlc1978]

Yep. It's a perception problem more than an actual limitation in practice.



A 600 mile trip is unlikely to take just 10 hours, unless you can pull out of your driveway directly onto the highway, and pull *off* of the highway directly at your destination. And, of course, most people already make a number of stops along the way (bathroom, stretch legs, grab food, etc.). In practice, the 150-minutes worth of charging stops would only *add* about 40-50 minutes to the typical 600 mile trip.

I'm just basing that on my admittedly anecdotal evidence of averaging 55-60 mph over a trip of that length. YMMV. Your assumption that 100+ minutes of the charging can be done at a place where and when they want to stop. Right now, I'm not sure that is the case.

More and more often, you'll be able to pull into a charging space *at* your destination (especially when it's a hotel), and charge while you sleep.



They certainly limit the appeal for the people who lack the foresight to do a modicum of planning.

Again, until the EV is as convenient as an ICE it's appeal will be limited. Perception drives behavior, so you need to demonstrate that the concerns are overcome to change the perception to change the behavior. Saying "You only have to inconvenience yourself a bit to use this" won't change the status quo.

 

[Tummy]

How long is the average time for a 'fill-up' in this model?

Depends on the size of the battery and how much you used. Most people at home use a NEMA 14-50 plug installed in the garage. It's able to recharge about 18-23 miles per hour (based on a Model S). At a supercharger it will be about 1/2 hour for 0-80%.

From a Tesla Supercharger station it would be a little less than an ½ hour from near empty to about 80%.

In day to day driving, you will not use all 200+ miles of range. So if you plug it in when you get home it's charged up when you wake up. I say it takes about 15 seconds to plug in.

The average American commutes about 38 miles round trip per day so even the current 80-100 mile EVs work fine for most people.

 

[tbrinkma]

Driver disctraction.
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One day when it will be a common car/interior setup and every driver will be staring at such display while driving there will be troubles.

If you <i>stare</i> at your instrument cluster while driving, you'll have troubles <b>no matter where the instrument cluster is</b>.

 

[Tummy]

Again, until the EV is as convenient as an ICE it's appeal will be limited. Perception drives behavior, so you need to demonstrate that the concerns are overcome to change the perception to change the behavior. Saying "You only have to inconvenience yourself a bit to use this" won't change the status quo.

I find going to the gas station every couple days (when I had an SUV) or every week very inconvenient. Plus I had a gun pulled on me once while filling up, so being able to recharge at home is a big benefit to EVs for me.

 

[jlc1978]

I find going to the gas station every couple days (when I had an SUV) or every week very inconvenient. Plus I had a gun pulled on me once while filling up, so being able to recharge at home is a big benefit to EVs for me.

That's fine, and filling up every week probably paid a role in getting rid of the SUV; which is exactly my point: If people perceive a vehicle as inconvenient to us ether will chose a different vehicle. Right now, the utility of an EV is negatively impact day the perception that they have a limited range and thus are not suitable as a primary vehicle since they cannot be taken on longer trips.

 

[Julien]

Depends on the size of the battery and how much you used. Most people at home use a NEMA 14-50 plug installed in the garage. It's able to recharge about 18-23 miles per hour (based on a Model S). At a supercharger it will be about 1/2 hour for 0-80%.

In day to day driving, you will not use all 200+ miles of range. So if you plug it in when you get home it's charged up when you wake up. I say it takes about 15 seconds to plug in.

The average American commutes about 38 miles round trip per day so even the current 80-100 mile EVs work fine for most people.

Not sure what you quoted me and posted about actually daily milage driven since I was answering PaulRustad007 question about charging. Which you also gave the same basic answer.

 

[Tummy]

That's fine, and filling up every week probably paid a role in getting rid of the SUV; which is exactly my point: If people perceive a vehicle as inconvenient to us ether will chose a different vehicle. Right now, the utility of an EV is negatively impact day the perception that they have a limited range and thus are not suitable as a primary vehicle since they cannot be taken on longer trips.

Like I posted earlier, for longer trips like the once or twice a year roadtrip, just rent a gas car or if you got the BMW i3, just borrow a 3 series from the dealer. It's different if you're retired and have all the time in the world to drive around.

 

[tbrinkma]

Yeah? Tesla is what a ponzi scheme used to be like. Collect money first, promise great many things in the far future. If Ford and GM would do it, you would be sceptical, but the peculiar charm of Elon Ponzi lets you forget all caution. Even as they knew, this was the man who sold them a reusable exploding rocket, people kept sending the guy money into prison.

You're not even remotely familiar with how a Ponzi scheme worked, are you?

 

[Tummy]

Not sure what you quoted me and posted about actually daily milage driven since I was answering PaulRustad007 question about charging. Which you also gave the same basic answer.

Yes, i don't know, it was probably a mistake.

 

[tbrinkma]

I based that on the statement in the order form:

While this Reservation secures the approximate delivery priority within your region

i.e. Tesla is free to move you up or down based on their needs.

Yes, if you have specific, optional features on your order when the time comes, you may be bumped up or down on the list according to the availability of the units with those features. No surprise there.
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It takes me about 30 seconds to fill up my petrol car, so that's 150 times quicker than recharging a Tesla.

I can't see the general public buying electric cars for decades.

Where do you fill your tank with a pump that pushes 100+ gallons per minute through the pump? That's the only way you'll get a 30-second fill-time, since the fill time includes the time spent interacting with the pump (most of your '30 seconds' on its own at most stations).
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You should remove the "residential chargers" from that map, unless Tesla owners are happy to pay for someone else's electricity.

Did you miss the "Shared by PlugShare Members" notation under the "Residential Chargers" label?

 

[primesoup2]

Yeah? Tesla is what a ponzi scheme used to be like. Collect money first, promise great many things in the far future. If Ford and GM would do it, you would be sceptical, but the peculiar charm of Elon Ponzi lets you forget all caution. Even as they knew, this was the man who sold them a reusable exploding rocket, people kept sending the guy money into prison.

LoL talk about disinformation. Go back and look up what Ponzi scheme actually is. Sure, Elon Musk and the company had problems delivering on time, but let's see what you can come up with not delivering and offing with people's money in company's past.

I was referring to the practice that Tesla 3 pre-orders require a $1,000 down payment at least one and a half year in advance of delivery. With 150,000 pre-orders so far Elon Musk has already collected 150 million dollars from hopeful customers without delivering a single car. This might turn out to be the biggest Kickstarter blunder of all time.

If the company could finance the Model 3 development with profits from Model S and X or risk capital, I would have said nothing. So far I only see them stealing the good name of Nikola Tesla.

1,000 refundable down payment on a 35,000 car. You think that is a kick-starter fund? You obviously know neither what preorder is or how Kickstarter funding works.

 

[dyt1983]

BMW owners are snobs. Tesla owners are connoisseurs. Know the difference.

In Silicon Valley, Tesla owners are more like the "new" BMW owners. You know, the ones that used to differentiate a BMW from a porcupine. Then again, I'd say the same for the Google self-driving cars.
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Unsurprisingly, the folks at Tesla have already taken this into account. The supercharger network is scheduled to more than double in size by the time the Model 3 starts rolling of production lines, and they'll continue expanding it after that.

I hope they do better than in the past. My experience in the SF Bay Area is that it usually takes longer than 30 minutes to just get hooked up to a Supercharger. Overcrowding, locals using Superchargers, too many people leaving their cars hooked up too long (see previous "porcupine" reference), and ICE-cars parked in spots where they shouldn't be has sometimes made me just keep going. I've seen improvements (for instance Gilroy has been expanded, previously I could get what I needed and leave before a spot became available), but I think it's going to need a lot more work, especially with 250,000 new users.

 

[Mactendo]

If you <i>stare</i> at your instrument cluster while driving, you'll have troubles <b>no matter where the instrument cluster is</b>.

I think you got the point. Looking at the speed specific panel/screen/gauge right in front of your eyes is much less distracting than looking at the monitor in the middle of the car with all that info on it.

 

[smacrumon]

You obviously have no clue as to the capacity of solar generation and the limitations thereof.

Ummm. Read your comment as if I had typed it to you, then look at the image below.

 

[jlc1978]

Yes, if you have specific, optional features on your order when the time comes, you may be bumped up or down on the list according to the availability of the units with those features. No surprise there.

Or, Tesla can move the higher profit orders to the front of the line. I have no idea what they will do; I just find it interesting that some people assumed because they ordered before someone else they will get their car first when Tesla specifically stated they need not fufill based on when the order a deposit was received.
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Like I posted earlier, for longer trips like the once or twice a year roadtrip, just rent a gas car or if you got the BMW i3, just borrow a 3 series from the dealer. It's different if you're retired and have all the time in the world to drive around.

You post just shows the issue with EVs: they are not yet as useful as an ICE and that limits their appeal. You can say just rent a car when you need range but that adds to the TOC of an EV and feeds the perception that they are not a viable replacement for an ICE as a primary vehicle.

 

[Tummy]

You post just shows the issue with EVs: they are not yet as useful as an ICE and that limits their appeal. You can say just rent a car when you need range but that adds to the TOC of an EV and feeds the perception that they are not a viable replacement for an ICE as a primary vehicle.

I don't know why someone needs to own one vehicle that does everything if there are more cost effective ways of doing it.
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Ummm. Read your comment as if I had typed it to you, then look at the image below.

My understanding is that Volts can only pull in 3.3 kw using their onboard chargers. That solar array is probably not enough for all 6 of those cars, but offsets a good amount. The panels can probably deliver about 250 watts each, maybe a little more, so it's nearly there. Teslas come with at least a 10 kw onboard charger and optional 20 kw.

 

[Sonmi451]

Are you for real? Come on, seriously, fanatics on both sides are groups of overgrown drama queens fighting each other, it is a hoot.

Incorrect. The reputation of Beemer drivers is well documented. While the Model S is out of reach for most Americans, it is still an investment toward a sustainable future in transportation. The Model 3 is already changing the auto industry.
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$60/month
= $720/year
= $7,200 over 10 years.
... on a MSRP $40K car?
... seriously?

I'd go for that - in fact I'd get the Range Extender, fill the ruddy tank with single malt and still save money. Where do I sign, which finger do I take the blood from and what do I do if I don't have a first born son to trade?



I like the i3. I'd get one if I could have it for $60/month. Sadly, that figure just doesn't pass the credibility test.

I don't know about $60, but there have been a lot of people leasing i3's for around $120/month. Maybe less if you look around. Deals are certainly out there.
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In Silicon Valley, Tesla owners are more like the "new" BMW owners. You know, the ones that used to differentiate a BMW from a porcupine. Then again, I'd say the same for the Google self-driving cars.

I don't know what that means. I'm pretty sure BMW are still BMW drivers. Tesla drivers are not BMW drivers. I don't see what's wrong with Google cars, they are trying to do something positive for transportation which is a huge problem. You don't have to like it, but don't dismiss the importance of Google/Tesla and the impact they will have on our planet.

 

[Oilbrnr]

Ummm. Read your comment as if I had typed it to you, then look at the image below.

Yeah, and look at all the rest in that parking lot that would also have to be served if they were EV. And whom is going to foot the bill for that infrastructure? Not to mention those are Volts that can get by with a *trickle* charge and it appears to be a GM lot. Looks like that station would charge four cars. Do you know what the output capacity and expectations of charge would be with that setup? How is that going to play out in say Seattle or Portland, OR?

Again, I'm not sure you understand on how big a solar footprint you'd need to satisfy your 'going to the beach and have my car charged for free' scenario.

Just to be clear, I'm not opposed to either EV or solar, I run a decent solar array on my RV and I know what it takes just to operate a domestic sized refrigerator every day, let alone a car. It is neither trivial in size nor cost.