I was guesstimating on the hardcore people who line up would be around 10% of the lines that normally form for an iPhone launch. I did not say that 10% of iPhone owners would get an Apple Watch as that's simply not going to happen.
From what I have seen and witnessed so far, the Apple Watch is a very niche product that no one really needs. It will be able to do some cool stuff, but then my blender can do some cool stuff too.
This is just the start.
In 5 years, we will be looking back at this Apple Watch release as the start of the end of phones.
This first step is necessary. Things just don't start out perfect. When phones first came out, people wore pagers, cameras AND phones. The phone replaced them all.
Once the watch can work on it's own, most people will only own 2 devices, a phone and a tablet. The world we are in now, where I need to lug around a hunk of metal/plastic in my pocket, take it out to do something, put it back, will seem so ancient and outdated very soon.