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Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, January 2007

emw said:
Scary, then, what your rate would have been if you'd remained one of "us"... ;)
Click to expand...
Actually, I think it's gone up, but, then again, I spend more time here now*, which would be impossible for mad jew.

* Handling bad post reports, banning people, using the iSight hack available to the mods to spy on members, deleting random posts, etc.
calculus said:
There should be a mad jew post count widget.
Click to expand...
We tried that, but, until screens get a better-than-4ms refresh rate, the number just appears as a blur.
 
jsw said:
I too would find a list of the top n posters over a shorter time span, like the previous 2-3 years, to be interesting. Still, such a list would be difficult to compile.
Click to expand...
Top 50 posters over the past 2 years:

Code: 
Rank  2-year Top 50   Posts
----  --------------  ------
  1   mad jew         22,109
  2   mkrishnan       13,177
  3   iGary           12,925
  4   jsw             11,272
  5   ~Shard~         11,061
  6   Blue Velvet      9,726
  7   yellow           9,444
  8   Doctor Q         8,856
  9   dmw007           8,802
 10   PlaceofDis       8,787
 11   Mitthrawnuruodo  8,368
 12   Applespider      8,074
 13   emw              8,056
 14   raggedjimmi      7,608
 15   devilot          7,379
 16   WildCowboy       7,234
 17   CanadaRAM        7,190
 18   Abstract         7,012
 19   Chundles         7,012
 20   katie ta achoo   6,794
 21   Lacero           6,636
 22   clayj            6,446
 23   bousozoku        6,410
 24   iMeowbot         5,929
 25   gekko513         5,725
Rank 2-year Top 50 Posts
---- -------------- ------
Code: 
 26   max_altitude     5,631
 27   Lau              5,582
 28   MacRumorUser     5,259
 29   GFLPraxis        5,257
 30   Nermal           5,232
 31   robbieduncan     5,178
 32   2nyRiggz         5,165
 33   wdlove           5,145
 34   Chip NoVaMac     5,056
 35   skunk            4,967
 36   Jaffa Cake       4,810
 37   eva01            4,799
 38   edesignuk        4,734
 39   nagromme         4,734
 40   IJ Reilly        4,693
 41   dcv              4,691
 42   iBlue            4,595
 43   balamw           4,509
 44   grapes911        4,431
 45   EricNau          4,402
 46   Mord             4,350
 47   rdowns           4,217
 48   vniow            4,186
 49   Eidorian         4,179
 50   ITASOR           4,160
 
jsw said:
* Handling bad post reports, banning people, using the iSight hack available to the mods to spy on members, deleting random posts, etc.
Click to expand...
That would explain the little red light in the corner of my room.:eek:
 
Doctor Q said:
Top 50 posters over the past 2 years:

Code: 
Rank  2-year Top 50   Posts
----  --------------  ------
  1   mad jew         22,109
Click to expand...
Given his current total of 22,252, that would imply that, for the first eight months or so of his membership, his post rate was...

*** gasps ***

...less than one post per day. It just seems so... alien to think that was the case.

Also, that would mean that, two years or so ago, I had over 3,000 posts, and he had less than two hundred, over roughly the same period of posting time. Wow, have the tables turned!
 
jsw said:
Given his current total of 22,252, that would imply that, for the first eight months or so of his membership, his post rate was...

*** gasps ***

...less than one post per day. It just seems so... alien to think that was the case.
Click to expand...

Actually, it looks like Doctor Q just used the same data he used for the six month calculations, which would suggest that he didn't post at all for a while. :confused:

But I wonder how Doctor Q did this count. The simplest way would be to go back to the Top 50 posters from two years ago and subtract the numbers from the new list. But anyone who wasn't on the list two years doesn't have any data.
 
WildCowboy said:
Actually, it looks like Doctor Q just used the same data he used for the six month calculations, which would suggest that he didn't post at all for a while. :confused:

But I wonder how Doctor Q did this count. The simplest way would be to go back to the Top 50 posters from two years ago and subtract the numbers from the new list. But anyone who wasn't on the list two years doesn't have any data.
Click to expand...
*** shudders ***

I'm not so sure it's a good idea to even imply the possibility that Doctor Q didn't provide accurate statistics. One does not mess with an MR god.

*** looks around ***

*** flees forums until it all settles down again ***
 
Chart #2: 6-Month Projected Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q on January 4, 2007

Code: 
Proj  Projection      Proj    Cur   Delta
Rank  Jul. 4, 2007    Posts   Rank  Rank
----  --------------  ------  ----  -----
  1   mad jew         28,687    2     +1
  2   Mr. Anderson    22,863    1     -1
  3   jsw             18,225    5     +2
  4   Doctor Q        16,908    4      0
  5   wdlove          16,570    3     -2
  6   mkrishnan       16,314    7     +1
  7   ~Shard~         16,150    6     -1
  8   iGary           15,671    8      0
  9   bousozoku       14,808   10     +1
 10   yellow          13,406   13     +3
 11   dmw007          13,225   21    +10
 12   edesignuk       12,781    9     -3
 13   eyelikeart      12,101   11     -2
 14   Abstract        11,975   14      0
 15   Blue Velvet     11,951   15      0
 16   WildCowboy      11,697   31    +15
 17   Rower_CPU       11,277   12     -5
 18   vniow           10,659   19     +1
 19   raggedjimmi     10,573   27     +8
 20   PlaceofDis      10,520   22     +2
 21   Chundles        10,381   35    +14
 22   Nermal          10,318   17     -5
 23   jelloshotsrule  10,067   16     -7
 24   Mitthrawnuruodo 10,032   23     -1
 25   Sun Baked        9,896   18     -7
Code: 
Proj  Projection      Proj    Cur   Delta
Rank  Jul. 4, 2007    Posts   Rank  Rank
----  --------------  ------  ----  -----
 26   emw              9,861   25     -1
 27   Applespider      9,758   24     -3
 28   iMeowbot         9,500   28      0
 29   katie ta achoo   9,050   38     +9
 30   devilot          8,837   30      0
 31   jefhatfield      8,826   20    -11
 32   CanadaRAM        8,179   32      0
 33   Chip NoVaMac     7,971   26     -7
 34   clayj            7,874   41     +7
 35   max_altitude     7,654   46    +11
 36   arn              7,642   34     -2
 37   iGAV             7,611   33     -4
 38   gekko513         7,563   45     +7
 39   Mord             7,498   43     +4
 40   MacBandit        7,408   29    -11
 41   nagromme         7,236   39     -2
 42   scem0            7,226   36     -6
 43   MacRumorUser     7,181  ---    ---
 44   MrMacman         6,942   37     -7
 45   Counterfit       6,870   42     -3
 46   2nyRiggz         6,810  ---    ---
 47   Lau              6,739   47      0
 48   Lacero           6,636   40     -8
 49   Jaffa Cake       6,596  ---    ---
 50   GFLPraxis        6,462  ---    ---
Columns:
  1. Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
  2. Projection Jul. 4, 2007 = members with the 50 highest projected post counts based on current post count and rate for the last 6 months.
  3. Proj Posts = projected # of posts by that member.
  4. Cur Rank = current rank, as of January 2007 (from Chart #1), or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
  5. Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank over the next 6 months.
 
Comments on the 6-Month Projections

I made the chart in the previous post by extrapolating member post counts 6 months into the future, based on current post counts (excluding posts that the forum system does not count) and post rates over the last 6 months.

The results are only estimates because members change their rate of posting, current members will join the list or drop out, and new members will appear.

They are overestimates for members who have had a recent flurry of posts and will "settle down" in the next months, and underestimates for members who have taken temporary breaks recently from their usual posting habits, such as 6 years off to finish their undergraduate degree. :D

--- Changed members ---

Four members projected to join the Top 50 list:
MacRumorUser (#43), 2nyRiggz (#46), Jaffa Cake (#49), GFLPraxis (#50)

Four members projected to fall off the Top 50 list (former rank):
iJon (#44), shadowfax (#48), rainman::|:| (#49), wrldwzrd89 (#50)

All eight are/were near the bottom of the list, so none made great leaps in overall position, but just happened to cross the 50-51 border.

Members next closest to the Top 50 list:
robbieduncan -- missed by 227 posts (1.2 posts/day)
dcv -- missed by 321 posts (1.7 posts/day)

Random stats to please a few members who just like to see their names in print: ;)
Mitthrawnuruodo: projected to have the lowest 5-digit-post-count
Blue Velvet: as for 6-months ago, ranked just behind Abstract (this time by just 24 posts)
dynamicv: missed the Top 50 by 340 posts
If this had been the Top 100, iBlue would have moved up to position #57, displacing skunk, who dropped from #57 to #61.​

--- Changes in rank ---

At the top: To nobody's surprise, mad jew (by the time of this projection) has displaced Mr. Anderson and is now the number one all-time top poster and forum champion. Please note that I predicted 6 months ago that the switch would happen on January 12, 2007. We'll soon see how close that prediction comes to the actual day.

jsw (active) and wdlove (no longer active) swapped places, with jsw now at #3 and wdlove now at #5, while Doctor Q stayed put at #4. mkrishnan and ~Shard~ also swapped places, with mkrishnan now at #6 and ~Shard~ reversing his last 6 month change from #7 to #6 by moving back to #7 (which I mistakenly let slip earlier!).

Whle no longer posting, iGary still has enough posts to stay at #8, one head of bousozoku, who moved up one from #10 to #9.

edesignuk is out of the Top 10 (#9 down to #12), leaving an opening for yellow to move in, up from #13 to #10.

[New stat!] Smallest margin of victory:
nagromme (#41) with only a 10-post lead over scem0

Next smallest:
devilot (#30), only 11 posts ahead of jefhatfield (who wasn't much competition, since he is no longer active), max_altitude (#35), who bested arn by 12 posts

[New stat!] Largest margin of victory:
mad jew (#1), amassing a 5,824-post lead over Mr. Anderson

Next largest:
Mr. Anderson (#2), ahead of jsw by 4,638, bousozoku (#9), 1,402 ahead of yellow, jsw (#3), 1,317 ahead of Doctor Q

The number of members with over 10,000 posts leaps from 14 to 24. You need 6,462 posts (up from 5419) to qualify for the Top 50. mad jew and Mr. Anderson remain the only posters with 20,000 posts.

Highest projected rise in rank:
WildCowboy (up 15 slots)

Next highest:
Chundles (up 14 slots), max_altitude (up 11 slots), dmw007 (up 10 slots)

Highest projected loss in rank:
jefhatfield and MacBandit (each down 11 slots)
This is the second time in a row that the biggest loss in rank was a 2-way tie for an 11-slot drop, which is a statistical sign that the end of the world is approaching.

Next highest:
Lacero (down 8 slots), jelloshotsrule, Sun Baked, Chip NoVaMac, and MrMacman (each down 7 slots)
Last time there was a 3-way tie for third-highest drop, and this time there is a 4-way tie for third-highest drop. This is a statistical sign that the end of the world is not approaching.

A record-breaking 8 members are projected to retain their position in the Top 50 list:
Doctor Q (#4), iGary (#8), Abstract (#14), Blue Velvet (#15), iMeowbot (#28), devilot (#30), CanadaRAM (#32), Lau (#47).
That's quite a large number, but with inactive members still in the Top 50, we have not reached a steady state by any means.

--- Excluded and inactive members ---

No banned or unregistered members are projected to remain in the Top 50.

Six inactive members projected to remain in the Top 50:
wdlove (#5), iGary (#8), eyelikeart (#13), jefhatfield (#31), clayj (#34), Lacero (#48)

--- Post rates ---

A member's six-month posting rate can be very different from his or her long-term rate. Over their memberships, mad jew has averaged 22.0 posts per day, almost double Mr. Anderson's rate of 11.83 posts per day. However, in the last 6 months, mad jew's rate of 36.14 posts per day has been more than 12 times Mr. Anderson's rate of 2.89 posts per day.

[New stat!] Biggest post rate disparity:
WildCowboy has a recent rate of 24.52 posts/day and an overall rate of 10.21 posts/day (an increase of 142%). gekko513 increased by 107% (10.10 posts/day recently, 4.87 posts/day overall).

[New stat!] Most consistent post rate:
Nermal (6.58 posts/day recently, 6.13 posts/day overall) and arn (3.00 posts/day recently, 3.39 posts/day overall)

Two projected Top 50 members barely posted in the last 6 months:
MacBandit and MrMacman (8 posts each)
They tied in this category 6 months ago too.

--- Total posts ---

By this projection, by July 4, 2007 there will have been 540,985 total MacRumors posts by the Top 50 members.
 
WildCowboy said:
Actually, it looks like Doctor Q just used the same data he used for the six month calculations, which would suggest that he didn't post at all for a while. :confused:
Click to expand...
The trouble is that I don't have counts for members from before they were on the Top 50 radar, so prior posts look to have been in the missing period.

For example, mad jew wasn't in my charts until July 3, 2005, so the formulas assume that all of his posts were in the preceding 6 months. Maybe I can figure out how to account for that based on membership start date. In the meantime, consider those 2-year totals to be a quick-and-dirty approximation to what jsw wanted to see.
 
Nermal said:
Despite your projections, I plan to stay at #17 for another round :)
Click to expand...
I assume that you'll do that by checking your rank every day or two and adjusting your post rate accordingly. That must be the secret to your Blue Velvety consistency.
 
Doctor Q said:
Code: 
Proj  Projection      Proj    Cur   Delta
Rank  Jul. 4, 2007    Posts   Rank  Rank
----  --------------  ------  ----  -----
  1   mad jew         28,687    2     +1
  2   Mr. Anderson    22,863    1     -1
  3   jsw             18,225    5     +2
  4   Doctor Q        16,908    4      0
  5   wdlove          16,570    3     -2
  6   mkrishnan       16,314    7     +1
  7   ~Shard~         16,150    6     -1
  8   iGary           15,671    8      0
  9   bousozoku       14,808   10     +1
 10   yellow          13,406   13     +3
 11   dmw007          13,225   21    +10
 12   edesignuk       12,781    9     -3
Click to expand...
Doctor Q said:
Whle no longer posting, iGary still has enough posts to stay at #8, one head of bousozoku, who moved up one from #10 to #9.
Click to expand...
But wouldn't iGary be "stuck" at his current 12.925, placing him 11th...? :confused:

Doctor Q said:
Random stats to please a few members who just like to see their names in print: ;)
Mitthrawnuruodo: projected to have the lowest 5-digit-post-count​
Click to expand...
Thanks... :p

I'll do my best to make your predictions as correct as possible...
 
Doctor Q said:
I assume that you'll do that by checking your rank every day or two and adjusting your post rate accordingly.
Click to expand...
He may also be strategically deleting posts in order to keep his rank as well.
 
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