Comments on the 6-Month Projections
I made the chart in the previous post by extrapolating member post counts 6 months into the future, based on current post counts (excluding posts that the forum system does not count) and post rates over the last 6 months.
The results are only estimates because members change their rate of posting, current members will join the list or drop out, and new members will appear.
They are overestimates for members who have had a recent flurry of posts and will "settle down" in the next months, and underestimates for members who have taken temporary breaks recently from their usual posting habits, such as 6 years off to finish their undergraduate degree.
--- Changed members ---
Four members projected to join the Top 50 list:
MacRumorUser (#43),
2nyRiggz (#46),
Jaffa Cake (#49),
GFLPraxis (#50)
Four members projected to fall off the Top 50 list (former rank):
iJon (#44),
shadowfax (#48),
rainman::|:| (#49),
wrldwzrd89 (#50)
All eight are/were near the bottom of the list, so none made great leaps in overall position, but just happened to cross the 50-51 border.
Members next closest to the Top 50 list:
robbieduncan -- missed by 227 posts (1.2 posts/day)
dcv -- missed by 321 posts (1.7 posts/day)
Random stats to please a few members who just like to see their names in print:

Mitthrawnuruodo: projected to have the lowest 5-digit-post-count
Blue Velvet: as for 6-months ago, ranked just behind Abstract (this time by just 24 posts)
dynamicv: missed the Top 50 by 340 posts
If this had been the Top 100, iBlue would have moved up to position #57, displacing skunk, who dropped from #57 to #61.
--- Changes in rank ---
At the top: To nobody's surprise,
mad jew (by the time of this projection) has displaced
Mr. Anderson and is now the
number one all-time top poster and forum champion. Please note that I predicted 6 months ago that the switch would happen on January 12, 2007. We'll soon see how close that prediction comes to the actual day.
jsw (active) and
wdlove (no longer active) swapped places, with
jsw now at #3 and
wdlove now at #5, while
Doctor Q stayed put at #4.
mkrishnan and
~Shard~ also swapped places, with
mkrishnan now at #6 and
~Shard~ reversing his last 6 month change from #7 to #6 by moving back to #7 (which I mistakenly let slip earlier!).
Whle no longer posting,
iGary still has enough posts to stay at #8, one head of
bousozoku, who moved up one from #10 to #9.
edesignuk is out of the Top 10 (#9 down to #12), leaving an opening for
yellow to move in, up from #13 to #10.
[New stat!] Smallest margin of victory:
nagromme (#41) with only a 10-post lead over
scem0
Next smallest:
devilot (#30), only 11 posts ahead of
jefhatfield (who wasn't much competition, since he is no longer active),
max_altitude (#35), who bested
arn by 12 posts
[New stat!] Largest margin of victory:
mad jew (#1), amassing a 5,824-post lead over
Mr. Anderson
Next largest:
Mr. Anderson (#2), ahead of
jsw by 4,638,
bousozoku (#9), 1,402 ahead of
yellow,
jsw (#3), 1,317 ahead of
Doctor Q
The number of members with over 10,000 posts leaps from 14 to 24. You need 6,462 posts (up from 5419) to qualify for the Top 50.
mad jew and
Mr. Anderson remain the only posters with 20,000 posts.
Highest projected rise in rank:
WildCowboy (up 15 slots)
Next highest:
Chundles (up 14 slots),
max_altitude (up 11 slots),
dmw007 (up 10 slots)
Highest projected loss in rank:
jefhatfield and
MacBandit (each down 11 slots)
This is the second time in a row that the biggest loss in rank was a 2-way tie for an 11-slot drop, which is a statistical sign that the end of the world is approaching.
Next highest:
Lacero (down 8 slots),
jelloshotsrule,
Sun Baked,
Chip NoVaMac, and
MrMacman (each down 7 slots)
Last time there was a 3-way tie for third-highest drop, and this time there is a 4-way tie for third-highest drop. This is a statistical sign that the end of the world is not approaching.
A record-breaking 8 members are projected to retain their position in the Top 50 list:
Doctor Q (#4),
iGary (#8),
Abstract (#14),
Blue Velvet (#15),
iMeowbot (#28),
devilot (#30),
CanadaRAM (#32),
Lau (#47).
That's quite a large number, but with inactive members still in the Top 50, we have not reached a steady state by any means.
--- Excluded and inactive members ---
No banned or unregistered members are projected to remain in the Top 50.
Six inactive members projected to remain in the Top 50:
wdlove (#5),
iGary (#8),
eyelikeart (#13),
jefhatfield (#31),
clayj (#34), Lacero (#48)
--- Post rates ---
A member's six-month posting rate can be very different from his or her long-term rate. Over their memberships,
mad jew has averaged 22.0 posts per day, almost double
Mr. Anderson's rate of 11.83 posts per day. However, in the last 6 months,
mad jew's rate of 36.14 posts per day has been more than 12 times
Mr. Anderson's rate of 2.89 posts per day.
[New stat!] Biggest post rate disparity:
WildCowboy has a recent rate of 24.52 posts/day and an overall rate of 10.21 posts/day (an increase of 142%).
gekko513 increased by 107% (10.10 posts/day recently, 4.87 posts/day overall).
[New stat!] Most consistent post rate:
Nermal (6.58 posts/day recently, 6.13 posts/day overall) and
arn (3.00 posts/day recently, 3.39 posts/day overall)
Two projected Top 50 members barely posted in the last 6 months:
MacBandit and
MrMacman (8 posts each)
They tied in this category 6 months ago too.
--- Total posts ---
By this projection, by July 4, 2007 there will have been 540,985 total MacRumors posts by the Top 50 members.