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Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, January 2009

Abstract said:
Fixed that for you.
Click to expand...

Oooh, that one gets the Macrumors Bastard Stamp of Approval™ :D :cool:

And yes, as you say, if Q didn't put the time and effort into undertaking this significant analysis we wouldn't have these great stats every six months, so a big thanks to the Doc! :)
 
6-Month Projections

Chart #2: 6-Month Projected Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q in January 2009

Code: 
Proj  Projection      Proj    Cur   Delta
Rank  Jul 4, 2009     Posts   Rank  Rank
----  --------------  ------  ----  -----
  1   mad jew         32,234    1      0
  2   mkrishnan       26,431    2      0
  3   Doctor Q        23,237    4     +1
  4   jsw             22,198    5     +1
  5   Mr. Anderson    21,591    3     -2
  6   Blue Velvet     21,005    6      0
  7   Abstract        20,251    8     +1
  8   Eidorian        19,743   11     +3
  9   ~Shard~         18,648    7     -2
 10   PlaceofDis      18,568    9     -1
 11   edesignuk       18,305   10     -1
 12   iGary           18,027   13     +1
 13   bartelby        17,037   15     +2
 14   wdlove          16,567   12     -2
 15   devilot         16,166   14     -1
 16   robbieduncan    15,501   21     +5
 17   raggedjimmi     15,312   18     +1
 18   yellow          14,359   16     -2
 19   iBlue           14,336   20     +1
 20   rdowns          14,148   27     +7
 21   WildCowboy      14,005   19     -2
 22   bousozoku       13,998   17     -5
 23   MacNut          13,851   23      0
 24   Sun Baked       13,672   22     -2
 25   Jaffa Cake      13,025   28     +3
Code: 
Proj  Projection      Proj    Cur   Delta
Rank  Jul 4, 2009     Posts   Rank  Rank
----  --------------  ------  ----  -----
 26   IJ Reilly       12,906   32     +6
 27   CanadaRAM       12,393   24     -3
 28   Mitthrawnuruodo 12,190   26     -2
 29   alphaod         11,997  ---    ---
 30   eyelikeart      11,896   25     -5
 31   sushi           11,894   41    +10
 32   Nermal          11,410   29     -3
 33   Lau             11,110   36     +3
 34   Applespider     11,109   34      0
 35   emw             11,091   31     -4
 36   Rower_CPU       10,913   30     -6
 37   dmw007          10,651   33     -4
 38   twoodcc         10,499   38      0
 39   jessica.        10,335  ---    ---
 40   xUKHCx          10,258   44     +4
 41   vniow           10,254   35     -6
 42   Queso           10,057   40     -2
 43   arn             10,034   37     -6
 44   Chundles         9,711   42     -2
 45   EricNau          9,551  ---    ---
 46   skunk            9,503  ---    ---
 47   nagromme         9,429   45     -2
 48   jelloshotsrule   9,393   39     -9
 49   Tallest Skil     9,309  ---    ---
 50   psychofreak      9,077   43     -7
Columns:
  1. Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
  2. Projection July 4, 2009 = members with the 50 highest projected post counts based on current post count and rate for the last 6 months.
  3. Proj Posts = projected # of posts by that member.
  4. Cur Rank = current rank, as of January 2009 (see Chart #1 above), or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
  5. Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank over the next 6 months.
 
Comments on the 6-Month Projections

I made the chart in the previous post by extrapolating member post counts 6 months into the future, based on current post counts (excluding posts that the forum system does not count) and post rates over the last 6 months. Making these projections, just for fun, is the reason I start these threads.

The results are only estimates because members change their rate of posting, current members will join the list or drop out, and new members will appear. They are overestimates for members who have had a recent flurry of posts and will "settle down" in the next months, and underestimates for members who have taken temporary breaks to visit the so-called real world.


Changed members

Five members (last time it was 2) are projected to join the Top 50, none in the Top 25:
alphaod (#29)
jessica. (#39)
EricNau (#45)
skunk (#46)
Tallest Skil (#49)
​

The five members projected to fall off the Top 50 list are those with the 5 lowest ranks in the current Top 50:
katie ta achoo (#46)
MacRumorUser (#47)
jefhatfield (#48)
Mord (#49)
iMeowbot (#50)
​

Member closest to but not in the Top 50:

Mord, missing staying in the Top 50 by 43 posts (0.24 posts/day, or 1 post every 4.2 days)

Next closest, either missing the list or not staying on the list:
wrldwzrd89 -- by 102 posts (0.56 posts/day, or 1 post every 1.8 days)
katie ta achoo -- by 120 posts (0.66 posts/day, or 1 post every 1.5 days)
MacRumorUser -- by 155 posts (0.86 posts/day, or 1 post every 1.2 days)
​


Changes in rank

mad jew and mkrishnan should hold their spots, but Mr. Anderosn will slip below Doctor Q and jsw.

Blue Velvet, ~Shard~, Abstract, and PlaceofDis will remain in the Top 10. Eidorian will show up in the Top 10, displacing edesignuk, who has been in the Top 10 since the January 2005 rankings.

Largest margin of victory: mad jew (#1) over mkrishnan (#2) by 5,803 posts
Next largest:
mkrishnan over Doctor Q by 3,194 posts
Eidorian over ~Shard~ by 1,095 posts
Doctor Q over jsw by 1,039 posts
​
Smallest margin of victory: Lau over Applespider by a single post! I know they'll have a good laugh about that one. Or scratch each other's eyes out. ;)

Next largest:
eyelikeart over sushi by a mere 2 posts!
xUKHCx over vniow by 4 posts!
WildCowboy over bousozoku by 7 posts!

There must be something in the water causing these close races. We've never had results like these before. :eek:
​

Highest projected rise in rank: sushi, up 10 slots and the only one in double figures
Next highest:
rdowns, up 7 slots
IJ Reilly, up 6 slots
robbieduncan, up 5 slots
​
Highest projected loss in rank (while still on the Top 50): jelloshotsrule, down 9 slots
Next highest:
psychofreak, down 7 slots
Rower_CPU and vniow and arn, each down 6 slots
bousozoku and eyelikeart, each down 5 slots
​
A few members are projected to hold their current rank:
mad jew (#1 since the July 2007 rankings)
mkrishnan (#2)
Blue Velvet (#6)
MacNut (#23)
Applespider (#34)
twoodcc (#38)​


Excluded and inactive members

No banned or unregistered members are projected to remain in the Top 50.

It's lucky the member MacBytes is only a bot with an artificial post count, because my formulas produced a completely fictitious MacBytes post count of 30,404 posts by July.

Seven inactive or mostly inactive members are projected to remain in the Top 50:
mad jew (#1)
Mr. Anderson (#5)
wdlove (#14)
bousozoku (#22)
eyelikeart (#30)
jelloshotsrule (#48)
psychofreak (#50)
​
vniow hasn't post for a couple of months, but I assumed she'll be back.


Trivia

By July 1, 2009 there will have been 719,184 total posts by the Top 50 members, 52,736 more posts than those 50 members have today.

The average Top 50 member will have 14,384 posts total, having made 1,055 posts in the 6 months between now and then (5.8 posts/day), a statistic which has now dropped twice in a row. The Top 50 are again slowing down.

It is projected to take 9,077 posts to make the Top 50. That's 430 more than the 8,647 posts it currently requires.

Chundles comes out with the highest 4-digit post count, one of only 7 members projected to be in the Top 50 with less than 10,000 posts.

Mitthrawnuruodo has a lock on the longest member name in the Top 50. Three pairs of members are in consecutive positions with names the same length: Abstract-Eidorian (#7-#8), IJ Reilly-CanadaRAM (#26-#27), vniow-Queso (#41-#42).

No animals were harmed in the making of these charts, and only a few egos bruised.
 
EricNau said:
I have the exact opposite goal, in fact. ;) The longer I can stay off The List, the better. :p
Click to expand...
Actually, that is a pretty good goal. :)

With the way the numbers are rising for the top 50, it will probably be easy to do.

On a side note, I've always wondered about how the top 100 posters would look. But completely understand Dr. Q doing the top 50 as there is enough work just doing that.
 
These are interesting but embarrassing threads. See, I don't think a high post count in and of itself is a good thing. That's why I call this "the thread of shame", I am always embarrassed to find myself on it. :p

Can I sell a few thousand of my posts to a needy member?
 
rdowns said:
Probably, but the needy members likely can't access the Marketplace. :D
Click to expand...

Post-farming is the answer: the needy hand over their username and password and some cash in return for a dedicated poster to make 500 posts in a couple of days/weeks for them :p
 
I have to admit I'm glad to have dropped out. Otherwise it would have been embarrassing; travelling and all.

Though it was only by 100 posts :eek:
 
Yeah, and you've been travelling for ages! Next year. ;)


Would anybody really care if their post count got reduced to 0?

It would take me around 5-6 weeks to regain my avatar, and um.....that's the only thing that's important, really. It's all about the 'tar.
 
Since Doctor Q won't be busy enough today with MW, any chance we can get a comparison of your July 2008 projections vs. January 2009 actual?
 
iBlue said:
It's in the July 2008 thread here. (or am I reading this wrong?)
Click to expand...

Going from that post and the number reported in this thread I really through Q's predictions off :eek:. Q predicted that I would have 2001 more posts then I actually did. Which was the largest difference with second largest being psychofreak who retired from the forums.

On the other end of the scale Q was scarily accurate with dmw007, where he was only 1 post off the actual result. Doctor Q -> :cool:

Going the other way rdowns was 1,500 posts up on the prediction, I think the largest difference on the positive side of things.

All in all the top 50 were -16,699 down on the prediction. I think.
 
OMG, I am moving up this list at a rate second only to sushi and rdowns.

Hark, what do I see approaching... it's


The%20end%20of%20time.jpg
 
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