Nope. I'm just lazy and want someone else to put it in a chart for me.
Ah, OK. I didn't think your brain could have farted that badly but I just had to check, after the "MR gremlins" thing and all.
Got a tip for us?
Let us know
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Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, January 2009
- Thread starter Doctor Q
- Start date
- Sort by reaction score
Ah, OK. I didn't think your brain could have farted that badly but I just had to check, after the "MR gremlins" thing and all.
well it looks like i am on a pretty steady posting rate as of late. thats good. for me at least.
Yeah, and you've been travelling for ages! Next year.
Would anybody really care if their post count got reduced to 0?
It would take me around 5-6 weeks to regain my avatar, and um.....that's the only thing that's important, really. It's all about the 'tar.
I'd settle for a reduction to 500. It would take me nearly 2 years to regain it at my post rate. Unless PRSI is brought into post count. I'm farily certain I have more posts only in the uncounted forums than my current total post count.
Yes, I was a bit busy today for some reason, but I'll have the End of Time stats and analysis ready tomorrow, well before the End of Time actually occurs.
We can only hope.Yes, I was a bit busy today for some reason, but I'll have the End of Time stats and analysis ready tomorrow, well before the End of Time actually occurs.
I've notice some of the older members from when I first registered are not active anymore....everyones seems to be getting this "life" I keep hearing about.....hmmmm interesting
Bless
Bless
The real world is just a rumor. You shouldn't believe it until and unless Steve Jobs announces it.I've notice some of the older members from when I first registered are not active anymore....everyones seems to be getting this "life" I keep hearing about.....hmmmm interesting
I've notice some of the older members from when I first registered are not active anymore....everyones seems to be getting this "life" I keep hearing about.....hmmmm interesting
Yep, it does put a wrench in the gears I must say. Ah well, what can ya do...
I've notice some of the older members from when I first registered are not active anymore....everyones seems to be getting this "life" I keep hearing about.....hmmmm interesting
Bless
"Life (LIF) 1. The annoying bits that keep one from participating in important things like MMORPGs and online communities. 2. The stuff that happens when away from an internet connection for more than 30 seconds."
Luckily computer and phone makers are working on a cure. Soon you'll never be more than arms reach from something that will allow you to be online.
"End of Time" Top 50 Posters
Chart #3: "End of Time" Top 50 Posters
Computed by Doctor Q in January, 2009
Columns:
Chart #3: "End of Time" Top 50 Posters
Computed by Doctor Q in January, 2009
Code:
Proj Projection Weighted Cur Delta Last Delta
Rank End of Time Rate Rank Rank EOT EOT
---- -------------- -------- ---- ----- ---- -----
1 alphaod 23.5 --- --- --- ---
2 Eidorian 15.9 11 +9 1 -1
3 iJohnHenry 13.5 --- --- --- ---
4 mkrishnan 13.4 2 -2 4 0
5 bartelby 12.4 15 +10 3 -2
6 Abstract 12.2 8 +2 10 +6
7 robbieduncan 12.1 21 +14 16 +9
8 Blue Velvet 11.9 6 -2 11 +3
9 rdowns 11.1 27 +18 23 +14
10 MacNut 10.6 23 +13 5 -5
11 sushi 10.1 41 +30 33 +22
12 CalBoy 9.8 --- --- --- ---
13 jessica. 9.8 --- --- --- ---
14 PlaceofDis 9.7 9 -5 6 -8
15 iBlue 9.4 20 +5 8 -7
16 xUKHCx 9.4 44 +28 9 -7
17 IJ Reilly 9.2 32 +15 21 +4
18 Tallest Skil 8.8 --- --- --- ---
19 raggedjimmi 8.7 18 -1 19 0
20 Doctor Q 8.6 4 -16 14 -6
21 Jaffa Cake 8.6 28 +7 20 -1
22 Teh Don Ditty 8.4 --- --- --- ---
23 iGary 7.9 13 -10 30 +7
24 devilot 7.4 14 -10 12 -12
25 clevin 7.3 --- --- 13 -12
Code:
Proj Projection Weighted Cur Delta Last Delta
Rank End of Time Rate Rank Rank EOT EOT
---- -------------- -------- ---- ----- ---- -----
26 twoodcc 7.3 38 +12 18 -8
27 bigandy 6.8 --- --- 29 +2
28 edesignuk 6.7 10 -18 24 -4
29 Eraserhead 6.6 --- --- 7 -22
30 Sesshi 6.4 --- --- 25 -5
31 jsw 6.4 5 -26 15 -16
32 WildCowboy 6.3 19 -13 17 -15
33 Lau 6.3 36 +3 35 +2
34 Queso 5.5 40 +6 22 -12
35 EricNau 5.3 --- --- 36 +1
36 Sun Baked 5.3 22 -14 39 +3
37 ChrisA 5.1 --- --- --- ---
38 dukebound85 5.0 --- --- --- ---
39 ~Shard~ 5.0 7 -32 28 -11
40 CanadaRAM 4.8 24 -16 26 -14
41 skunk 4.8 --- --- 41 0
42 leekohler 4.1 --- --- --- ---
43 LimeiBook86 4.0 --- --- 37 -6
44 Mitthrawnuruodo 3.9 26 -18 34 -10
45 wrldwzrd89 3.9 --- --- 49 +4
46 yellow 3.8 16 -30 27 -19
47 Applespider 3.8 34 -13 43 -4
48 flopticalcube 3.7 --- --- --- ---
49 Chundles 3.7 42 -7 42 -7
50 Lord Blackadder 3.5 --- --- --- ---- Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
- Projection End of Time = members with the 50 highest projected post counts as time goes to infinity, based on a computed post rate.
- Weighted Rate = # posts per day by that member as a cascading weighted average, giving 50% weight to the most recent 6 months, 25% to the previous 6 months, 12.5% to the previous 6 months, and so on, with adjustments made based on the length of membership. See definition of weighted rate from July 2006.
- Cur Rank = current rank, as of January 2009, or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
- Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank from now until the end of time.
- Last EOT = rank in End of Time projections from 6 months ago (July 2008, Chart #3), or "---" for those who were not in the previous End of Time Top 50.
- Delta EOT = change in rank from End of Time projection 6 months ago to End of Time projection now.
Comments on the End of Time Projections
This is the second time that I've included the Last EOT and Delta EOT columns, to compare the End of Time projections from 6 months ago to the End of Time projections now. As always, the Cur Rank and Delta Rank columns compare projected End of Time ranks with current forum ranks to track changes from now until forever.
This chart is where the real surprises show up, since long-time regulars who haven't been keeping up are left in the dust, and newcomers often sneak up on us.
At the top
Eidorian, our previously projected #1 End of Time poster, has kept up his posting habits, with a post rate over the last 6 months that is only about 1 post/day less than the preceding 6 months. However, he's no longer #1, as alphaod has taken the lead. alphaod joined 11 months ago and has maintained a posting rate of 23 posts/day since joining, way beyond any other member. iJohnHenry, who joined less than 10 months ago, is also a new arrival in the Top 50, at #3, posting at a rate just a bit higher than #4 mkrishnan. Whether these rates are "too high" is a matter of opinion; my stats measure only quantity.
Six other members are in the Top 10, with rates within a small range: 10 to 12 posts/day. They are bartelby, Abstract, robbieduncan, Blue Velvet, rdowns, and MacNut.
sushi is the only other poster with a post rate over 10 per day. Remember that the post rates I'm using for measurement are computed with a forumla explained above, taking into account both their long-term and recent posting history. His weighted post rate isn't quite as high as his recent post rate, nor as low as his post rate prior to the last 6 months; it combines both.
Notably absent from the list is mad jew, who has been notably absent from our notable forums. Rumors that he is being held captive by Tasmanian pademelons are probably false, but you can check wallabyrumors.com for further information.
Leaders and followers
Measuring leads by absolute weighted post rate, the stats show that the widest disparity is at the top of the list:
Biggest post rate lead: alphaod (#1) over Eidorian (#2) by 7.62 weighted posts per day
Closest post rate finish: iBlue over xUKHCx by 0.0088 weighted posts per day (1 post every 113 days). In other words, if you watched their posts for a year, they'd have they same post count almost every day, but on 3 days iBlue would make one more post than xUKHCx. If one of them spent a few hours having dinner with the royal family instead of posting at MacRumors, their rival would jump out ahead!
Measuring leads by percentage of weighted post rate, we again find the biggest leads at the top:
Biggest lead by percentage of weighted post rate: alphaod (#1) over Eidorian (#2) by an astounding 48%, meaning that alphaod makes 3 posts for every 2 made by Eidorian.
Closest race by percentage: iBlue over xUKHCx by 0.094%
Just missed the Top 50: yg17, by 0.385 posts/day, or one post every 2.6 days. Mord and QCassidy352 would have been next in line.
Changed members
Nineteen members not in the current Top 50 are projected to eventually join the Top Posters list, giving them their big chance to have their names in lights. That's more than a third of the list!
They displace these 19 members (current rank), who are projected to fall off the Top 50 list, eventually:
Changes in rank
Comparing today's Top 50 to the End of Time Top 50:
Highest projected rise in rank: sushi, up 30 slots, based on a post rate that has just about doubled since the previous measurement period
Highest projected loss in rank: ~Shard~, down 32 slots, despite a drop of less than 2 posts/day
No member is projected to retain his or her current rank.
I've dropped quite a few slots myself. Perhaps the reason is that I make posts like this one, which took 2 days to compose!
Changes in the Top 50 End of Time
This is a comparison of the End of Time projection from 6 months ago with the End of Time projection now.
In the End of Time projections, we find 11 new members, a much bigger increase than last time:
mad jew (was #2)
Peace (was #31)
MacRumorUser (was #32)
emw (was #38)
dcv (was #40)
arn (was #44) (he was a nice guy while he lasted)
katie ta achoo (was #45)
Mord (was #46)
zap2 (was #47)
dmw007 (was #48)
wrldwzrd89 (was #50)
Interestingly, many more people dropped a significant distance in rank than climbed any distance.
Highest projected rise in rank: sushi, up 22 slots and almost into the Top 10
Highest projected loss in rank: Eraserhead, down 22 slots and out of the Top 10
Three members are projected to retain their current rank:
Trivia
Among members projected to be in the End of Time Top 50, iJohnHenry has the lowest current post count (3,880). That means we have the least confidence in his projected post rate because we have the least historical data.
I also check how the IVG (Initial Vowel Group) is doing. Last time their cult had 11 members in the Top 50. With these projections, they again have 11 members and have taken the top 3 spots! Maybe it's the rest of us who are in a cult now, the Initial Consonant Group. The IVG members are: alphaod, Eidorian, iJohnHenry, Abstract, iBlue, IJ Reilly, iGary, edesignuk, Eraserhead, EricNau and Applespider.
The number of members with names beginning with ~ have stayed quite small, but by coincidence is the same as the number of members with names ending with ~. Don't ask me to explain how this could happen.
I also track the MATLOC (MAcrumors Three-LettOr Club) members. Last time there were 5, but only two have survived the 6 months since the last projections: jsw and Lau.
The percentage of women in the End of Time Top 50 has dropped from 16% to 12%. Who will the gentlemen hold the forum door for?
One stat came out exactly the same as last time: Based on total weighted post rate, the Top 50 will combine for one post every 3.6 minutes, 24 hours a day, for the rest of eternity.
Combined, the Top 50 forum members have made 570,057 posts to date, accounting for 8.4% of the total 6.8 million forum posts, and they will make over 570,057 more posts in the next 4 years.
And that's enough to overflow my sliderule, so I'll have to give it a rest now.
This is the second time that I've included the Last EOT and Delta EOT columns, to compare the End of Time projections from 6 months ago to the End of Time projections now. As always, the Cur Rank and Delta Rank columns compare projected End of Time ranks with current forum ranks to track changes from now until forever.
This chart is where the real surprises show up, since long-time regulars who haven't been keeping up are left in the dust, and newcomers often sneak up on us.
At the top
Eidorian, our previously projected #1 End of Time poster, has kept up his posting habits, with a post rate over the last 6 months that is only about 1 post/day less than the preceding 6 months. However, he's no longer #1, as alphaod has taken the lead. alphaod joined 11 months ago and has maintained a posting rate of 23 posts/day since joining, way beyond any other member. iJohnHenry, who joined less than 10 months ago, is also a new arrival in the Top 50, at #3, posting at a rate just a bit higher than #4 mkrishnan. Whether these rates are "too high" is a matter of opinion; my stats measure only quantity.
Six other members are in the Top 10, with rates within a small range: 10 to 12 posts/day. They are bartelby, Abstract, robbieduncan, Blue Velvet, rdowns, and MacNut.
sushi is the only other poster with a post rate over 10 per day. Remember that the post rates I'm using for measurement are computed with a forumla explained above, taking into account both their long-term and recent posting history. His weighted post rate isn't quite as high as his recent post rate, nor as low as his post rate prior to the last 6 months; it combines both.
Notably absent from the list is mad jew, who has been notably absent from our notable forums. Rumors that he is being held captive by Tasmanian pademelons are probably false, but you can check wallabyrumors.com for further information.
Leaders and followers
Measuring leads by absolute weighted post rate, the stats show that the widest disparity is at the top of the list:
Biggest post rate lead: alphaod (#1) over Eidorian (#2) by 7.62 weighted posts per day
Next biggest:
Eidorian (#2) over iJohnHenry (#3) by 2.34 weighted posts per day
mkrishnan (#4) over bartelby (#5) by 1.07 weighted posts per day
All other leads are less than one weighted post per day.mkrishnan (#4) over bartelby (#5) by 1.07 weighted posts per day
Closest post rate finish: iBlue over xUKHCx by 0.0088 weighted posts per day (1 post every 113 days). In other words, if you watched their posts for a year, they'd have they same post count almost every day, but on 3 days iBlue would make one more post than xUKHCx. If one of them spent a few hours having dinner with the royal family instead of posting at MacRumors, their rival would jump out ahead!
Just slightly less close:
wrldwzrd89 over yellow by 0.0094 weighted posts per day (1 post every 107 days)
WildCowboy over Lau by 0.0096 weighted posts per day (1 post every 104 days)
WildCowboy over Lau by 0.0096 weighted posts per day (1 post every 104 days)
Measuring leads by percentage of weighted post rate, we again find the biggest leads at the top:
Biggest lead by percentage of weighted post rate: alphaod (#1) over Eidorian (#2) by an astounding 48%, meaning that alphaod makes 3 posts for every 2 made by Eidorian.
Next biggest:
Eidorian (#2) over iJohnHenry (#3) by 17%
skunk (#41) over leekohler (#42) by 16%
Lau over Queso by 15%
These rates are higher than last time, showing that the range of top post rates is spreading out. It seems that MacRumors has been an expanding universe ever since the Big Bang opening of the forums.skunk (#41) over leekohler (#42) by 16%
Lau over Queso by 15%
Closest race by percentage: iBlue over xUKHCx by 0.094%
Next closest:
WildCowboy over Lau by 0.152%
CalBoy over jessica. by 0.236%
wrldwzrd89 over yellow by 0.244%
Doctor Q over Jaffa Cake by 0.277%
clevin over twoodcc by 0.310%
CalBoy over jessica. by 0.236%
wrldwzrd89 over yellow by 0.244%
Doctor Q over Jaffa Cake by 0.277%
clevin over twoodcc by 0.310%
Just missed the Top 50: yg17, by 0.385 posts/day, or one post every 2.6 days. Mord and QCassidy352 would have been next in line.
Changed members
Nineteen members not in the current Top 50 are projected to eventually join the Top Posters list, giving them their big chance to have their names in lights. That's more than a third of the list!
alphaod (#1)
iJohnHenry (#3)
CalBoy (#12)
jessica. (#13)
Tallest Skil (#18)
Teh Don Ditty (#22)
clevin (#25)
bigandy (#27)
Eraserhead (#29)
Sesshi (#30)
EricNau (#35) (not if he can help it?)
ChrisA (#37)
dukebound85 (#38) (so he's also "top50bound"!)
skunk (#41)
leekohler (#42)
LimeiBook86 (#43)
wrldwzrd89 (#45)
flopticalcube (#48)
Lord Blackadder (#50)
iJohnHenry (#3)
CalBoy (#12)
jessica. (#13)
Tallest Skil (#18)
Teh Don Ditty (#22)
clevin (#25)
bigandy (#27)
Eraserhead (#29)
Sesshi (#30)
EricNau (#35) (not if he can help it?)
ChrisA (#37)
dukebound85 (#38) (so he's also "top50bound"!)
skunk (#41)
leekohler (#42)
LimeiBook86 (#43)
wrldwzrd89 (#45)
flopticalcube (#48)
Lord Blackadder (#50)
They displace these 19 members (current rank), who are projected to fall off the Top 50 list, eventually:
mad jew (#1)
Mr. Anderson (#3)
wdlove (#12)
bousozoku (#17)
eyelikeart (#25)
Nermal (#29)
Rower_CPU (#30)
emw (#31)
dmw007 (#33)
vniow (#35)
arn (#37)
jelloshotsrule (#39)
psychofreak (#43)
nagromme (#45)
katie ta achoo (#46)
MacRumorUser (#47)
jefhatfield (#48)
Mord (#49)
iMeowbot (#50)
Mr. Anderson (#3)
wdlove (#12)
bousozoku (#17)
eyelikeart (#25)
Nermal (#29)
Rower_CPU (#30)
emw (#31)
dmw007 (#33)
vniow (#35)
arn (#37)
jelloshotsrule (#39)
psychofreak (#43)
nagromme (#45)
katie ta achoo (#46)
MacRumorUser (#47)
jefhatfield (#48)
Mord (#49)
iMeowbot (#50)
Changes in rank
Comparing today's Top 50 to the End of Time Top 50:
Highest projected rise in rank: sushi, up 30 slots, based on a post rate that has just about doubled since the previous measurement period
Only one other member is up 20 or more slots:
xUKHCx, up 28 slots
Highest projected loss in rank: ~Shard~, down 32 slots, despite a drop of less than 2 posts/day
Next highest (those down 20 or more slots)
yellow, down 30 slots
jsw, down 26 slots
jsw, down 26 slots
No member is projected to retain his or her current rank.
I've dropped quite a few slots myself. Perhaps the reason is that I make posts like this one, which took 2 days to compose!
Changes in the Top 50 End of Time
This is a comparison of the End of Time projection from 6 months ago with the End of Time projection now.
In the End of Time projections, we find 11 new members, a much bigger increase than last time:
alphaod (#1)
iJohnHenry (#3)
CalBoy (#12)
jessica. (#13)
Tallest Skil (#18)
Teh Don Ditty (#22)
ChrisA (#37)
dukebound85 (#38)
leekohler (#42)
flopticalcube (#48)
Lord Blackadder (#50)
11 Members dropped off the End of Time list (rank on last End of Time list):iJohnHenry (#3)
CalBoy (#12)
jessica. (#13)
Tallest Skil (#18)
Teh Don Ditty (#22)
ChrisA (#37)
dukebound85 (#38)
leekohler (#42)
flopticalcube (#48)
Lord Blackadder (#50)
mad jew (was #2)
Peace (was #31)
MacRumorUser (was #32)
emw (was #38)
dcv (was #40)
arn (was #44) (he was a nice guy while he lasted)
katie ta achoo (was #45)
Mord (was #46)
zap2 (was #47)
dmw007 (was #48)
wrldwzrd89 (was #50)
Interestingly, many more people dropped a significant distance in rank than climbed any distance.
Highest projected rise in rank: sushi, up 22 slots and almost into the Top 10
Next highest, and the only other member up 10 or more slots:
rdowns, up 14 slots and into the Top 10
Highest projected loss in rank: Eraserhead, down 22 slots and out of the Top 10
Next highest:
yellow, down 19 slots
jsw, down 16 slots
WildCowboy, down 15 slots
CanadaRAM, down 14 slots
devilot and clevin and Queso, each down 12 slots
~Shard~, down 11 slots
Mitthrawnuruodo, down 10 slots
jsw, down 16 slots
WildCowboy, down 15 slots
CanadaRAM, down 14 slots
devilot and clevin and Queso, each down 12 slots
~Shard~, down 11 slots
Mitthrawnuruodo, down 10 slots
Three members are projected to retain their current rank:
mkrishnan (#4)
raggedjimmi (#19)
skunk (#41)
Moving only one slot:raggedjimmi (#19)
skunk (#41)
Eidorian and Jaffa Cake, down 1
EricNau, up 1
EricNau, up 1
Trivia
Among members projected to be in the End of Time Top 50, iJohnHenry has the lowest current post count (3,880). That means we have the least confidence in his projected post rate because we have the least historical data.
I also check how the IVG (Initial Vowel Group) is doing. Last time their cult had 11 members in the Top 50. With these projections, they again have 11 members and have taken the top 3 spots! Maybe it's the rest of us who are in a cult now, the Initial Consonant Group. The IVG members are: alphaod, Eidorian, iJohnHenry, Abstract, iBlue, IJ Reilly, iGary, edesignuk, Eraserhead, EricNau and Applespider.
The number of members with names beginning with ~ have stayed quite small, but by coincidence is the same as the number of members with names ending with ~. Don't ask me to explain how this could happen.
I also track the MATLOC (MAcrumors Three-LettOr Club) members. Last time there were 5, but only two have survived the 6 months since the last projections: jsw and Lau.
The percentage of women in the End of Time Top 50 has dropped from 16% to 12%. Who will the gentlemen hold the forum door for?
One stat came out exactly the same as last time: Based on total weighted post rate, the Top 50 will combine for one post every 3.6 minutes, 24 hours a day, for the rest of eternity.
Combined, the Top 50 forum members have made 570,057 posts to date, accounting for 8.4% of the total 6.8 million forum posts, and they will make over 570,057 more posts in the next 4 years.
And that's enough to overflow my sliderule, so I'll have to give it a rest now.
Nice touch: absolutely hilarious.
At this rate, however, it appears as if it's unavoidable; the numbers don't lie!
As always Q, spectacular job.
Love the end of time stuff Doc, thanks for this! It's pretty obvious though that is is based on current posting rates, which as we know change over time. Will those listed in the Top 10 who aren't even in the Top 50 yet be able to maintain their posting rates, or even remain members of the site in a few years? Only time will tell!
And we won't know if your data is correct or not until the end of time, which is a pretty sweet deal for you...
This would have to be my favorite stat of the whole bunch.
And we won't know if your data is correct or not until the end of time, which is a pretty sweet deal for you...
The number of members with names beginning with ~ have stayed quite small, but by coincidence is the same as the number of members with names ending with ~. Don't ask me to explain how this could happen.
This would have to be my favorite stat of the whole bunch.
Love it, Q.
What do you say, xUKHCx? Battle or dinner with the fam?
How do you think you just pipped me
It is no secret that I am often found at the palace having tea with my mate Harry, he was actually born just a few hours before me (a fact that led to my parents getting loads of free nappies).And we won't know if your data is correct or not until the end of time, which is a pretty sweet deal for you...
How true
I attribute this to two factors. Firstly, since these stats are for the end of time, I obviously will be a bit slower in my old age several eons from now. Secondly, there is obviously a new generation of postwhores out there!
the end of time predictions seem to always be the most volatile and changed up every six months. probably because of how frequently posting habits can change.
the end of time predictions seem to always be the most volatile and changed up every six months. probably because of how frequently posting habits can change.
Yeah, it's like I mentioned a few posts back. Heck, not even mad jew has been immune to that!
Not to mention Apple events.the end of time predictions seem to always be the most volatile and changed up every six months. probably because of how frequently posting habits can change.
I've assumed, without thinking about it seriously or looking for evidence, that all of the top posters are here because of their interest in Macs, and subsequently in the Mac and MacRumors communities, but I wonder if that's true? A lot of forum members joined because of iPods and iPhones. Are they or will they be part of our Top Poster group?
I joined out of boredom. I don't actually own a Mac and don't know a thing about them. It was prank that somehow got way out of control.
I wanted a username attached to my MacBytes submissions instead of Anonymous.
I stumbled upon this place that way.
I stumbled upon this place that way.